Elon Musk Q&A - Updates SpaceX status on Falcon and Dragon

[George CA]

Great interview. I agree with Elon's style in this interview. No PR stunt type comments, just a relaxed overview. Welcomed and will gain him more fans.

[Comga]

Let me add my congratulations on an excellent and informative interview, and some apologies for any cynicism I may have shown recently. Patience is hard to practice. As long as Musk can keep going as long as it will take, it is good to see an alternative launch system coming along.  

Musk passing the chance to ride the first flight partly because of the risk to  the company reminds me of Heinlein's "The Man Who Sold the Moon."   Let's hope Musk arrives in better shape than Delos D. Harriman!

[Avron]

The man is just unstoppable..  a lesson for us all..

now we need some additional tv coverage for the next launch attempt.. Braddock .. you keen?

Great work once again.. thanks

[PurduesUSAFguy]

I wonder what it would take to get hired on as an Astronaut for Space-X, ex-NASA astronauts or just those with test-pilot experience?

[savuporo]

Ronsmytheiii - 24/9/2007  10:27 AM
they state that SpaceX has positive net income, however where is that coming from if they have not launched a commercial satellite successfully yet?

Another one of mr. Musks ventures, Tesla Motors, has not shipped even one of their Roadsters yet ( due later this year ) but they have like 400 preorders right now for the $100 000 electric rubber burner.

His ventures are visionary enough so people gladly pay him lots of money even before he delivers

[simpl simon]

Chris Bergin - 25/9/2007  3:38 AM

While our interview was obviously exclusive, it's also worth noting, as it didn't get as much exposure as it should have:

It is attracting some notice: Aviation Week carries a reference to the interview:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/space/?channel=space

and links it to the Space Pragmatism blog:
http://www.spacepragmatism.com/index.html
where it is linked to you.

Don't know why AW couldn't provide a direct link to NASASpaceflight.com...........

[Chris Bergin]

simpl simon - 25/9/2007  9:56 AM

Don't know why AW couldn't provide a direct link to NASASpaceflight.com...........

That is strange, but it gets people to the Q&A eventually, so it's all good.

[mr.columbus]

Seer - 24/9/2007  2:48 PM

Things I'm surprised to hear.

 Musk can fund the COTS portion entirely from his own funds.

I am very surprised about that as well. The COTS portion to be provided through external funding of SpaceX is about 400 million (60-70% of the total COTS funds required from 2006-2010). However of course if Musk would not get money from any other private investor he could fund it by himself and a mixture of bonds and debt from financial institutions as well as revenues of SpaceX and other income (totally private funding will not be possible because Musk's private fortune is lower than 500 million (100 million already invested and the 400 million required until 2010 for COTS).

[antonioe]

mr.columbus - 25/9/2007 12:34 PM

I am very surprised about that as well. The COTS portion to be provided through external funding of SpaceX is about 400 million (60-70% of the total COTS funds required from 2006-2010).

Where did you find that information?  It is not on the published Space Act agreement.

[Antares]

As long as we're patting Elon on the back, my favorite thing is this:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1907769/ , first noticed in the opening credits of Thank You for Smoking.

Mikey G doesn't have an IMDB entry.

[meiza]

Antares - 25/9/2007  7:38 PM

As long as we're patting Elon on the back, my favorite thing is this:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1907769/ , first noticed in the opening credits of Thank You for Smoking.

Mikey G doesn't have an IMDB entry.

What the?? Traces of Howard Hughes inspiration?

[Nate_Trost]

antonioe - 25/9/2007  11:36 AM

mr.columbus - 25/9/2007 12:34 PM

I am very surprised about that as well. The COTS portion to be provided through external funding of SpaceX is about 400 million (60-70% of the total COTS funds required from 2006-2010).

Where did you find that information?  It is not on the published Space Act agreement.

The ratio (although not actual dollar figures) was mentioned by Gwynne Shotwell in her interview on the space show several months back.

Elon's comments about self funding internal COTS requirements can be interpreted a couple different ways. He might have been talking merely about the next fiscal year, or the period before SpaceX attempts an IPO (which could in theory happen before the end of COTS I, however unlikely). Also, SpaceX is booking some revenue with non-COTS launch contracts. A portion of that may be applicable.

Looking at it the other direction and trying to figure the cost of Falcon 9 development, Dragon development, SLC-40 development, the Falcon 9 demo flight as well as the 3 COTS flights...$600-$700 million does not seem like an absurd number to me.

[sandrot]

meiza - 25/9/2007  2:51 PM

Antares - 25/9/2007  7:38 PM

As long as we're patting Elon on the back, my favorite thing is this:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1907769/ , first noticed in the opening credits of Thank You for Smoking.

Mikey G doesn't have an IMDB entry.

What the?? Traces of Howard Hughes inspiration?

Actually there is one Mikey G. listed as a visual effects expert. The Ares I thru V saga is not listed in his filmography though...

[Avron]

savuporo - 25/9/2007  3:50 AM

Ronsmytheiii - 24/9/2007  10:27 AM
they state that SpaceX has positive net income, however where is that coming from if they have not launched a commercial satellite successfully yet?

Another one of mr. Musks ventures, Tesla Motors, has not shipped even one of their Roadsters yet ( due later this year ) but they have like 400 preorders right now for the $100 000 electric rubber burner.

His ventures are visionary enough so people gladly pay him lots of money even before he delivers

the problem is that he does not want the money..   he will deliver..

[kraisee]

While I agree with Jim, Space-X sure might be a pretty good answer to very expensive launch systems though.   It would be nice to have a totally US-based system capable of competing at the same costs with the Ariane and the Soyuz/Protons available on the international launcher market.   I think there's a wide slice of that market available to Space-X over the next decade if they play their cards right and just retain a little bit of luck.

Ross.

[James (Lockheed)]

Falcon 9 is the key for them. If they can make that a success, then they will be joining the big league.

[wannamoonbase]

James (Lockheed) - 26/9/2007  2:26 PM

Falcon 9 is the key for them. If they can make that a success, then they will be joining the big league.

Agreed.  But I don't think they can do a reasonable IPO until they have an operating revenue generating product with at a minimum the Falcon 1 flying successfully and delivering payloads.  

If they can fly the F9 successfully and deliver material to the ISS then an IPO should allow them to raise the capital they need to do some even more impressive things.  But just having the F1 and F9 functioning successfully would be a good business right there.

IPO's depend on premium pricing and structure. If he were to follow the Google dutch-auction approach, not oversubscribe in any way, and limit subscription while addressing in the filings the wildass nature of this "venture", he'll probably pull it off.

Investing is not strictly logical - more emotional, and Space-X definitely provokes those. Elon's chutzpah is legendary. He doesn't have a history of ritually lying to himself or other investors, so he gets give a large benefit of the doubt.

More likely this is deal posturing as a way to twist arms of other investors/partners you aren't aware of.

[tnphysics]

If SpaceX succeeds with there Falcon 1 & Falcon 9, they will get a good portion of the U.S. and commercial market.

[Jim]

tnphysics - 26/9/2007  8:49 PM

If SpaceX succeeds with there Falcon 1 & Falcon 9, they will get the entire U.S. and commercial market. They will outcompete all competitors and bankrupt ULA.

Not true.