Author Topic: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037  (Read 13159 times)

Offline nathan.moeller

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #40 on: 11/22/2007 08:52 AM »
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PurduesUSAFguy - 1/10/2007  7:17 PM

The next administration should retool the vision with the goal of having Americans on Mars by 2027 not 2037.

I don't think anyone is less interested in American spaceflight than the American government.  They're too focused on issues on Earth (hardly their own country and people, though).  Of course, when I say 'government,' I mean the clowns in Washington, not the NASA administration, workers, etc.
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Offline SimonFD

RE: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #41 on: 11/22/2007 11:40 AM »
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Gary - 21/11/2007  10:45 AM

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ShuttleDiscovery - 20/11/2007  6:41 PM

Wow! I'll be in my late 40's when we have a man on mars. That's kind of....scary!  :laugh:

40's? Bah! I'll be 40's when Orion flies. I'll be in my 70's when (if) we ever get to Mars.

Still at least I can tell my great grandkids about Skylab, ASTP and when the Shuttle flew........  :bleh:

Ha! I was born 6 months before the Moon landings. Saw Skylab lose a solar panel. Saw Americans shaking hands with Russians. Saw STS-1 leap off the pad in exactly the same way that Saturns didn't etc etc

At current rate I'll be 54 when Americans land back on the Moon and 72 when they go to Mars (assuming 2037) - any later and I might not see it all! Even the earlier time may be problematical unless i get jogging again!!


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Offline ALEX-Satellite

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #42 on: 11/23/2007 05:51 AM »
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jimvela - 21/11/2007  12:10 AM
Humans will be living on mars permanently by 2110.   We'll have outposts on at least one outer moon and one asteroid by then as well. ...
Idle fancy! :)

Offline Stephan

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #43 on: 11/23/2007 01:56 PM »
2037 = now + 30 years
The usual delay since the 80's ...
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Offline Mogster

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #44 on: 11/25/2007 12:43 PM »
Well I'm 36 now so I do hope we start soon or I'm not going to see it.....

I'm beginning to think that I was born at just the wrong time. Too late for Apollo, and after farting around in leo for 30 years, too early for Mars. A truly depressing thought.

Offline clongton

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #45 on: 11/25/2007 01:01 PM »
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Avron - 25/9/2007  12:32 AM

But there will be no men from the US on the moon by 2050. using a US developed craft..  that I am willing to put money on..  only problem is picking up the payout..
Winner gets an all expensises paid 2-week vacation to Luna Resort at Shackleton. Loosers all pitch in to pay the tab.  ;)
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Offline Scotty

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #46 on: 11/25/2007 06:09 PM »
If they do stick to the 2037 date (and I'm sure not holding my breath on that!), the commander for the mission is in about the 6th grade right now, and the rest of the crew are in kindergarden or pre-school.
Think about it!

Offline scienceguy

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RE: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #47 on: 11/25/2007 06:52 PM »
Would NASA go to Mars earlier if some new technology was developed like polywell fusion powering a VASIMR drive?
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Offline Mogster

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #48 on: 11/26/2007 11:52 AM »
In current rate development terms mid 2030 isn't that far off, Orion wont fly till 2015.

Unfortunately I can't imagine any new tech that would suddenly make a Mars flight much more appealing being developed in a 20 year time frame.

Offline nathan.moeller

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #49 on: 11/26/2007 04:33 PM »
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Scotty - 25/11/2007  1:09 PM

If they do stick to the 2037 date (and I'm sure not holding my breath on that!), the commander for the mission is in about the 6th grade right now, and the rest of the crew are in kindergarden or pre-school.
Think about it!

Hey I'll only be 50 in 2037 so don't rule me out just yet ;)
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Offline nathan.moeller

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #50 on: 11/26/2007 04:38 PM »
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Mogster - 26/11/2007  6:52 AM

In current rate development terms mid 2030 isn't that far off, Orion wont fly till 2015.

Unfortunately I can't imagine any new tech that would suddenly make a Mars flight much more appealing being developed in a 20 year time frame.

I remember a forum-member saying that a NASA employee once told him that with the developments that would come from the moon landings, we would be on Mars in 1984.  I love the shuttle more than any vehicle, but I think from 1981-1998, it delayed our return to the moon and journey to Mars.  I mean, it seems things were done out of sequence.  Don't get me wrong, I think there were massive achievements during those seventeen years.  The science of space and knowledge of vehicle design/redesign increased exponentially and a lot of that could not of have been done without the shuttle.  But let's go on to my thought...

The shuttle was designed to build/fly to a space station.  That's fine.  But they designed, built, and flew the shuttle without a space station design.  Shouldn't the two have been developed in parallel, with the shuttle flying other science flights in between assembly flights?  I know this thought won't change a thing, but 'what-ifs' can be quite interesting.
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Offline ryan mccabe

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #51 on: 11/26/2007 05:17 PM »
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Stephan - 23/11/2007  8:56 AM

2037 = now + 30 years
The usual delay since the 80's ...

Okay, but look at the differences between today and the 1980s:

1. Our activity level surrounding Mars has never been higher. For much of the 80s there were no functional spacecraft on (or in orbit) or Mars. Today we have five active vehicles around Mars, and another on the way.

2. We actually have plans in place to construct the launch vehicles and boosters necessary to propel a Mars-bound crew. We've drawn concept launch vehicles before, but never have they been designated to receive funding in the near future.

3. We have tens of thousands of crew*days in orbit thanks to the Mir, Shuttle, and ISS. Our understanding of the human body in zero-G is better than ever.

4. We've flown a vastly sophisticated space station whose systems can provide the best template yet for long-duration missions.

All of the Mars studies have put a manned landing 20-30 years off for a reason. Each of them has always required certain technology or vehicles that did not exist, and thus required many years to develop and prove them. We've never made Mars our explicit goal, so the study recommendations were never adopted and Mars stayed 20-30 years away.

But as of today, we are actually going down the path toward Mars hardware for once. Our explicit goals are Shuttle replacement and Lunar missions, but that same hardware could well be Mars-ready by the 2030s. I will remain cautiously optimistic, but if there's ever been a time when Mars is really 20-30 years off, it's now. :)

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #52 on: 11/26/2007 07:22 PM »
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ryan mccabe - 26/11/2007  1:17 PM


Okay, but look at the differences between today and the 1980s:

1. Our activity level surrounding Mars has never been higher. For much of the 80s there were no functional spacecraft on (or in orbit) or Mars. Today we have five active vehicles around Mars, and another on the way.


Not to be cynical, but just like we lost the ability to go to the moon before we even landed a person on the moon, We may be at the tail end of the golden age of robotic mars exploration. I fear future mars missions might be sacrificed for VSE.

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2. We actually have plans in place to construct the launch vehicles and boosters necessary to propel a Mars-bound crew. We've drawn concept launch vehicles before, but never have they been designated to receive funding in the near future.

If it lasts beyond the next election, what did Obama just say about gutting NASA's budget again? What was the fallout of vietnam on the lunar follow on programs? Something about no bucks for buck rogers.

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3. We have tens of thousands of crew*days in orbit thanks to the Mir, Shuttle, and ISS. Our understanding of the human body in zero-G is better than ever.

We still have not subjected a crew to the full duration of a mars mission.

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4. We've flown a vastly sophisticated space station whose systems can provide the best template yet for long-duration missions.

Which once completed in 2010 will be dumped in the pacific by 2016.

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All of the Mars studies have put a manned landing 20-30 years off for a reason. Each of them has always required certain technology or vehicles that did not exist, and thus required many years to develop and prove them. We've never made Mars our explicit goal, so the study recommendations were never adopted and Mars stayed 20-30 years away.

But as of today, we are actually going down the path toward Mars hardware for once. Our explicit goals are Shuttle replacement and Lunar missions, but that same hardware could well be Mars-ready by the 2030s. I will remain cautiously optimistic, but if there's ever been a time when Mars is really 20-30 years off, it's now. :)

I still remain sceptical and would love to see us go to mars in my life time. The question is how without breaking the bank. Given enough money and rockets we could do it now, but there is always that money issue...
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Offline ryan mccabe

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #53 on: 11/26/2007 08:51 PM »


Cynicism and skepticism are two very different things Kevin. You were right the second time. My point remains that we are now on the most direct path yet toward a manned Mars mission. The problem is, we've only been on that path for a few short years now, and it's impossible to appreciate any progress. Of course with the number of people on this site who refer to LEO as a "prision," I guess I shouldn't be surprised at a lack of patience.

The real measure will come 10-15 years from now. If (at that time) Mars still seems obtainable in the 2030s, I think we will have spent the last years well.

 As for the points:

1. How did we lose the capability to go to the Moon before we even landed a person on the moon?
2. If our goal is to land a manned crew on Mars, what is really lost if robotic missions are curtailed to fund a manned mission?
3. Obama isn't President and hasn't even won a primary yet. Control of the federal budget still resides with Congress no matter who is elected President.
4. And we'll probably never have the opportunity to subject a crew to the full conditions of a Mars mission before they actually go.
5. Erroneous! The station has been running since October 2000. That's sixteen years of operation on the components that matter most. We won't be taking Kibo with us to Mars. And even looking at the six year window from 2010 to 2016, that's twice as long as a typical Mars study mission.
6. We'll do it without breaking the bank by spreading out the cost over many years


Offline kevin-rf

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #54 on: 11/27/2007 12:29 AM »
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ryan mccabe - 26/11/2007  4:51 PM


1. How did we lose the capability to go to the Moon before we even landed a person on the moon?
New Saturn V funding was cut in 1968. (As much as many hate quoting astronautixs, look at 1968 http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/saturnv.htm )

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2. If our goal is to land a manned crew on Mars, what is really lost if robotic missions are curtailed to fund a manned mission?
If everything we need to learn about mars before going to mars is learned already, nothing, if.  Take a look at http://sse.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/future-mars1.cfm for the current road map. Notce what is star'd (as in development) and the gap between 2011 and 2016.

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3. Obama isn't President and hasn't even won a primary yet. Control of the federal budget still resides with Congress no matter who is elected President.
Just points out that NASA is only as safe as the next election. There are many other mouths at the table. For instance the $$$ drain in IRAQ has actually led to a 25% reduction over the last year of DOE / DOD funded research. At least in markets my prior company is in, at the same time NIH and NSF have been going up. Yes $17 billion is small potatoes, but it is $17b in one place. Easy to raid, and very easy to spin in a negative light while taking away the candy.

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4. And we'll probably never have the opportunity to subject a crew to the full conditions of a Mars mission before they actually go.
No, but the research sould be a priority if we really want to go to mars. That or come up with a nuclear (fission/fusion/quark on quark violence/any fancy physics concept) that will get to mars in 90 days or less.

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5. Erroneous! The station has been running since October 2000. That's sixteen years of operation on the components that matter most. We won't be taking Kibo with us to Mars. And even looking at the six year window from 2010 to 2016, that's twice as long as a typical Mars study mission.
Can not argue with that, still it took us close to 20 years to get it to this point. Of course Gravity Probe B was started before I was even born back in the 1960's and finally flew a few years ago. Though fingers can be pointed in many directions to why the delays in ISS occurred.

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6. We'll do it without breaking the bank by spreading out the cost over many years


Spreading out the costs over time is the classic recipe for a death spiral. Just look at the F-22 and many other great AF projects over the years. Amazingly the F-22 has survived (but at half the number the AF thinks it needs). Name one current electronic componect tht will not be obsolete by 2037.
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Offline texas_space

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #55 on: 11/27/2007 03:13 AM »
Maybe sooner than 2037?
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2007/11/26/219877/nasa-manned-mars-mission-details-emerge.html

Isn't this jumping the gun a bit? Nothing of the new architecture is near flying yet.
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Offline Avron

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #56 on: 11/27/2007 03:57 AM »
Any news of ESA plans to get to the moon within ten years of this magic 2037 date?

Offline Mogster

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Re: NASA aims to put man on Mars by 2037
« Reply #57 on: 11/29/2007 06:21 PM »
Hmmm, cargo and habitat 2028-2029, people follow on the 2031 bus. If only it could be so.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7116834.stm

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