Google Sponsors Lunar X PRIZE to Create a Space Race for a New Generation

[zt]

Whatever happened to this prize? How could a participant afford a launch to the Moon for such a small prize?

http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/media

[Moe Grills]

Whatever happened to this prize? How could a participant afford a launch to the Moon for such a small prize?

http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/media

Exactly! This is increasingly appearing a farce; or at best, well-intentioned
engineering and budgetary naïvity.
Remember that this thread started on September, 13, 2007, nearly SIX YEARS AGO.
 WTF?

[Robotbeat]

Things take time, much longer than you think it will at first. Rutan's bird is just now getting ready to send people (and even then, it will take a while until paying folk go... I'm sure a good year after first breaking the Karman line in SpaceShipTwo), SpaceX took longer to get payloads to the Space Station than first expected, and there are several other examples.

Should we throw up our hands and give up? Does this mean it's all fake? Nope and nope.

Astrobotic is now a company with several employees. Some of the other groups are also still going.

It's taking longer than original projected, but that doesn't mean it's some kind of fake.

In fact, I'm impressed at how long many of these newspace companies have held on, in spite of it taking a long time. Lots of them are still around and making significant, if slow, progress. If even a handful of them ultimately succeed and at a slower rate than they projected, it will be a good thing.

The schedule is naive, and the budget as well, but remember that the prize money is only one part of the budget!!! That was true for SpaceShipOne like it will be for the lunar X-prize.

[Danderman]

Can anyone explain how these spacecraft would be launched to the Moon, given the demise of Falcon 1?

[R7]

Non-US teams might try one of the Russian ICBM launchers?

And then there's ARCA...

http://www.arcaspace.com/en/haas2c.htm

It looks so real!

[Kryten]

 One of the teams, as far as I can tell the one furthest ahead in terms of actually being able to launch something ('Barcelona moon team') has managed to book a Long March 2C. They've not clarified exactly how they got the funds to do so, but the suppliers of LM (China great wall industry corp.) are listed as an actual sponsor, so I'm assuming they got at least some kind of discount. They also mention CGWIC are producing their propulsion module for the landing.

[Danderman]

Non-US teams might try one of the Russian ICBM launchers?

I don't any Russian ICBM that is cheap enough and capable enough for a lunar mission with a total budget of $30 million.

[R7]

What's the going rate for Strela? Wiki listed $5M, astronautix $10.5M

1.7t to LEO, own TLI kick stage required.

[Garrett]

Non-US teams might try one of the Russian ICBM launchers?

I don't any Russian ICBM that is cheap enough and capable enough for a lunar mission with a total budget of $30 million.

Prize money in such competitions is never meant to cover the entire budget, but instead give a generous financial boost. Participants have to find other, preferably sustainable, funding to achieve the competition objectives.

[Danderman]

What's the going rate for Strela? Wiki listed $5M, astronautix $10.5M

1.7t to LEO, own TLI kick stage required.

Development of such a TLI stage is a non-trivial effort.

[Danderman]

What's the going rate for Strela? Wiki listed $5M, astronautix $10.5M

1.7t to LEO, own TLI kick stage required.

This is a purely subjective observation, but I do not believe that NPO Mash will ever sell a Strela, for certain internal purposes.

[R7]

Development of such a TLI stage is a non-trivial effort.

No doubt, but ought not to be insurmountable for teams developing lunar landers.

This is a purely subjective observation, but I do not believe that NPO Mash will ever sell a Strela, for certain internal purposes.

Rokot then? More expensive but the 3rd stage should be able to provide at least part of the TLI burn.

[Danderman]

Development of such a TLI stage is a non-trivial effort.

No doubt, but ought not to be insurmountable for teams developing lunar landers.

This is a purely subjective observation, but I do not believe that NPO Mash will ever sell a Strela, for certain internal purposes.

Rokot then? More expensive but the 3rd stage should be able to provide at least part of the TLI burn.

We are in the theoretical aspect here. The Rokot third stage might provide some of that TLI burn, but all that means is that the prize contender has to design and build some fraction of a TLI stage, which basically means smaller prop tanks. In either case, the prize effort would transmogrify into a rocket development effort, which the teams are not equipped for.

I should also mention that Rokot only flies from Plesetsk, which is no fun for a lunar mission.

[A_M_Swallow]

I suspect that Google is going to have to pay for the TLI of three leading entries.  Falcon 9?  Antares?  Something else?

[R7]

"Team shall produce its own launch vehicle, or shall secure any launch vehicle via a commercial purchase, that is fair and repeatable."

[Danderman]

I suspect that Google is going to have to pay for the TLI of three leading entries.  Falcon 9?  Antares?  Something else?

Nope.

Google's contribution is the prize money. There is no ethical way that Google could fund any portion of a team's budget before the prize is won.

[Danderman]

Prize money in such competitions is never meant to cover the entire budget, but instead give a generous financial boost. Participants have to find other, preferably sustainable, funding to achieve the competition objectives.

The reason why this is often true is that there are often secondary benefits to winning the prize; ether secondary cash flows from the prize winning effort, or, in the specific case of the Paul Allen SpaceShip One effort, technology results that could be used for commercial ventures.

The lack of an actual lunar mission is telling us that there are no secondary benefits from the prize defined mission, at least none that are obvious now.

The other possible data point is that it may be the case that Falcon 1(E) is not flying because no Lunar XPrize team actually was ready to sign a contract for a mission with SpaceX for this launcher.

[A_M_Swallow]

I suspect that Google is going to have to pay for the TLI of three leading entries.  Falcon 9?  Antares?  Something else?

Nope.

Google's contribution is the prize money. There is no ethical way that Google could fund any portion of a team's budget before the prize is won.

A two part competition could be held.  The prize for the first part is a trip to Trans Lunar Injection (TLI) and awarded to 3 competitors.

[Danderman]

I suspect that Google is going to have to pay for the TLI of three leading entries.  Falcon 9?  Antares?  Something else?

Nope.

Google's contribution is the prize money. There is no ethical way that Google could fund any portion of a team's budget before the prize is won.

A two part competition could be held.  The prize for the first part is a trip to Trans Lunar Injection (TLI) and awarded to 3 competitors.

There are a million ways to structure prizes.  You are free to start up a thread about optimal prize structures.

However, the issue in this thread is that there is an existing prize with existing rules, which cannot be changed. So, under the existing rules and the existing reality, it would appear that no one is building a TLI stage, and virtually no one has signed a launch contract.

[Moe Grills]

Non-US teams might try one of the Russian ICBM launchers?

And then there's ARCA...

http://www.arcaspace.com/en/haas2c.htm

It looks so real!

510 kg empty?
16 tons fully loaded?

What is that rocket made of? Unobtainium?