Author Topic: What is the chance SpaceX will be flying crew to station on Dragon before CEV IOC? (Read 18439 times)

mars.is.wet · « **on:** 06/21/2007 06:27 pm »

What is the chance SpaceX will be flying crew to station on Dragon before CEV IOC?

stockman · « **Reply #1 on:** 06/21/2007 06:32 pm »

Not so sure on this only because I have seen nothing released anywhere on where they sit with testing/building this thing. Right now it is just a drawing on their web site.

koraldon · « **Reply #2 on:** 06/21/2007 06:40 pm »

At the current rate - nil
Falcon 1 was delayed by four years (or maybe three?) and has a 0% success rate.
So no reason to expect that Falcon 9 will be really ready this year, and will work. So if they get falcon 9 working by 2010, it is good.
however, it will take some more flights to get a good feel on the launcher, before going manned.
And than, they still have to develop Dragon from scratch, and get funding for it (COTS is for cargo only atm).

If CEV fails, or is delayed big time, maybe than you will see that NASA allocates budget to private carrier to "save its skin".

ShuttleDiscovery · « **Reply #3 on:** 06/21/2007 06:40 pm »

I believe they will almost certainly have the cargo version up and running by this time, but a crewed capsule, although it sounds like a good idea, it will be a big leap for SPACEX being such a new and small company. In terms of preparation and budget, we aren't going to see a crewed SPACEX capsule going to the ISS before the CEV.

ShuttleDiscovery · « **Reply #4 on:** 06/21/2007 06:43 pm »

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koraldon - 21/6/2007 7:40 PM

At the current rate - nil
Falcon 1 was delayed by four years (or maybe three?) and has a 0% success rate.

It's not a 0% success rate. I know for sure that the second flight (not sure on the first) was declared a success but there was problems. I havent come accross an exact success figure for the Falcon 1, but 0% usually means the entire vehicle gets destroyed...

Nate_Trost · « **Reply #5 on:** 06/21/2007 07:01 pm »

Well, I think the real question is "Will SpaceX make it, or collapse before 2016?"

First off, given current trends, is anybody really expecting the first manned CEV/CLV flight to occur before say, 2016?

If SpaceX gets the Falcon 9 to work, they'll stay in business. If not, they won't, making the question moot. While I'll be gobsmacked if they manage a first Falcon 9 flight attempt in 2008, I think it is a pretty good bet that they'll manage one by the end of 2009.

At that point, even if it takes five years to work the kinks out and build up enough of an unmanned flight record, it's still only the end of 2014/beginning of 2015. I sure don't see the crewed Dragon module variant as ever being a technical constraint, it's my understanding that SpaceX is using experienced subcontractors for aspects like the life support system design.

I guess we'll see how much they've learned in the past five years, and how well they can absorb the inevitable schedule slips of the first Falcon 9 launches.

ShuttleDiscovery · « **Reply #6 on:** 06/21/2007 07:14 pm »

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Nate_Trost - 21/6/2007 8:01 PM

Well, I think the real question is "Will SpaceX make it, or collapse before 2016?"

First off, given current trends, is anybody really expecting the first manned CEV/CLV flight to occur before say, 2016?

If SpaceX gets the Falcon 9 to work, they'll stay in business. If not, they won't, making the question moot. While I'll be gobsmacked if they manage a first Falcon 9 flight attempt in 2008, I think it is a pretty good bet that they'll manage one by the end of 2009.

At that point, even if it takes five years to work the kinks out and build up enough of an unmanned flight record, it's still only the end of 2014/beginning of 2015. I sure don't see the crewed Dragon module variant as ever being a technical constraint, it's my understanding that SpaceX is using experienced subcontractors for aspects like the life support system design.

I guess we'll see how much they've learned in the past five years, and how well they can absorb the inevitable schedule slips of the first Falcon 9 launches.

I totally agree. But really, before they start focusing on Falcon 9, they need to really establish a good flight record of the Falcon 1 and if that dosen't go to plan, it means less money for Falcon 9 and Dragon and a delayed schedule...

mars.is.wet · « **Reply #7 on:** 06/21/2007 07:16 pm »

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ShuttleDiscovery - 21/6/2007 2:43 PM

Quote
koraldon - 21/6/2007 7:40 PM

At the current rate - nil
Falcon 1 was delayed by four years (or maybe three?) and has a 0% success rate.

It's not a 0% success rate. I know for sure that the second flight (not sure on the first) was declared a success but there was problems. I havent come accross an exact success figure for the Falcon 1, but 0% usually means the entire vehicle gets destroyed...

The rocket and payload fell in the ocean. Is this a success or a failure?

I guess it depends on if you are trying to attract customers and investors.

http://www.youngeagles.org/news/archive/2007%20-%2003_22%20-%20SpaceX%20Launch%20a%20Success.asp

It was successful at testing their design to find problems. In that sense ... it was a success.

William Graham · « **Reply #8 on:** 06/21/2007 07:18 pm »

Unlikey given SpaceX's track record, but there again, I don't trust Ares.

ShuttleDiscovery · « **Reply #9 on:** 06/21/2007 07:23 pm »

Here is SPACEXs official manifest:

http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Antares · « **Reply #10 on:** 06/21/2007 09:14 pm »

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mars.is.wet - 21/6/2007 2:27 PM
What is the chance SpaceX will be flying crew to station on Dragon before CEV IOC?

Let's decompose:
will be flying Dragon before CEV IOC? 75%, determined by money / corporate survival
flying crew on Dragon before CEV IOC? 33%, determined by initial flight successes
flying crew to Station on Dragon before CEV IOC? 5%, determined by politics of visiting vehicle requirements.

I hope they decouple Dragon from Falcon 9. Both are viable, but should not be in each other's critical path.

josh_simonson · « **Reply #11 on:** 06/22/2007 01:14 am »

The basic Atlas V outlifts the Falcon 9 by a couple tons, so it aught to fit in a pinch. Dragon isn't suspiciously slightly over-sized unlike some other vehicles...

Kayla · « **Reply #12 on:** 06/22/2007 02:59 am »

I think that the real question is will either Orion/Ares I or Dragon/Falcon 9 ever fly. Sadly (ok, not so sadly for Ares) I think that the answer is quite likely no. NASA's has an extremely predictable track record of not following through. I think that SpaceX has under estimated the difficulty of A) getting Falcon 1 succesful and B) transitioning to Falcon 9 and C) keeping investor intrest during the troubling transition.

Bill White · « **Reply #13 on:** 06/22/2007 04:00 am »

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Kayla - 21/6/2007 9:59 PM

I think that the real question is will either Orion/Ares I or Dragon/Falcon 9 ever fly. Sadly (ok, not so sadly for Ares) I think that the answer is quite likely no. NASA's has an extremely predictable track record of not following through. I think that SpaceX has under estimated the difficulty of A) getting Falcon 1 succesful and B) transitioning to Falcon 9 and C) keeping investor intrest during the troubling transition.

I didn't think SpaceX had any investors except Elon Musk.

Antares · « **Reply #14 on:** 06/22/2007 05:01 am »

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Bill White - 21/6/2007 12:00 AM
I didn't think SpaceX had any investors except Elon Musk.

Look at their financial milestones in their COTS Space Act Agreement. The link is on here somewhere.

mars.is.wet · « **Reply #15 on:** 06/22/2007 12:33 pm »

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Bill White - 21/6/2007 12:00 AM

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Kayla - 21/6/2007 9:59 PM

I think that the real question is will either Orion/Ares I or Dragon/Falcon 9 ever fly. Sadly (ok, not so sadly for Ares) I think that the answer is quite likely no. NASA's has an extremely predictable track record of not following through. I think that SpaceX has under estimated the difficulty of A) getting Falcon 1 succesful and B) transitioning to Falcon 9 and C) keeping investor intrest during the troubling transition.

I didn't think SpaceX had any investors except Elon Musk.

Seems to be true, and if so, indicates that either he has all the money he needs to finish or none of the "smart money" of venture capital (folks that invest in all sorts of nutty things) are with him (on his terms). Given that he is trying to develop at least 4 products (F1, F9, Dragon, COTS), I'd be surprised if it was the former.

Kayla · « **Reply #16 on:** 06/22/2007 01:54 pm »

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mars.is.wet - 22/6/2007 7:33 AM
Given that he is trying to develop at least 4 products (F1, F9, Dragon, COTS), I'd be surprised if it was the former.

What is the difference between Dragon and COTS?

I agree with your statement, this is a lot for a small company to bite off. If Elon were to focus in the near term on Dragon, team with a current LV provider such as Atlas, he could meet his COTS 1 commitment with a lot less risk. Keep developing/perfecting F1, and save F9 for after F1 has proven itself.

Nate_Trost · « **Reply #17 on:** 06/22/2007 02:53 pm »

SpaceX will be soliciting private investment next year. Elon doesn't have $350-$400 million lying around, and that's SpaceX's share of the COTS investment (re: Gwynne Shotwell's comments on the funding percentages).

William Barton · « **Reply #18 on:** 06/22/2007 03:09 pm »

I think the answer to this question has more to do with the fate of Ares 1/Orion than SpaceX. And that has more to do with who controls the White House and Congress come January 2009. SpaceX has two big benchmarks to meet before I'd start placing bets on how Dragon will do: Getting the next Falcon 1 payload to orbit, and getting Falcon 9 off the ground within two years. If they accomplish the first, the second will start to look more likely. And, of course, if the first Ares 1 test launch explodes in the same time frame, I wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden expansion of COTS money.

NotGncDude · « **Reply #19 on:** 06/22/2007 03:17 pm »

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Kayla - 22/6/2007 9:54 AM

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mars.is.wet - 22/6/2007 7:33 AM
Given that he is trying to develop at least 4 products (F1, F9, Dragon, COTS), I'd be surprised if it was the former.

... team with a current LV provider such as Atlas, ...

Wouldn't you like that