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#20
by
rdale
on 19 Jun, 2007 21:00
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KSC still has a storm threat on Saturday but not as widespread.
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#21
by
psloss
on 19 Jun, 2007 21:38
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rdale - 19/6/2007 5:00 PM
KSC still has a storm threat on Saturday but not as widespread.
Thanks, Rob...
Updated SMG forecast is out:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
500 PM CDT TUESDAY JUNE 19 2007
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-117
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 06/21/07
TIME: 1755Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
.
.
.
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - THURSDAY 06/21/07
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN050 OVC120 7 21008P13
TSRA WI 30 NM
.
.
.
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/TS
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#22
by
Ender0319
on 20 Jun, 2007 03:00
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I'm here at EDW for a few days and I'm told that we're not called up for the Thursday landing (which you all already knew). Sadly I won't be here for any shuttle landing attempt but it's hot and dry as hell (quite literally) here.
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#23
by
Ikelos
on 20 Jun, 2007 03:59
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And quite windy.
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#24
by
rdale
on 20 Jun, 2007 04:41
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No time to analyze much tonight, but it looks like Thursday may not be as ugly as previously forecast (still far from out of the woods as my initial feeling is there will be too many storms around to try threading a needle far enough in advance to deorbit) but Friday looking notably better as the trend of bringing in the drier air more rapidly continues... The computer that earlier today said 54% chance of storms on Friday is now saying 6%! Other one (more trustworthy) staying steady around 30%.
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#25
by
elmarko
on 20 Jun, 2007 10:38
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Just a quick one, when are the landing tracks released?
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#26
by
psloss
on 20 Jun, 2007 10:57
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elmarko - 20/6/2007 6:38 AM
Just a quick one, when are the landing tracks released?
It varies from mission to mission...the statement on
the website is "usually posted 24 to 48 hours before landing":
I don't see anything yet, but keep an eye on the NASA shuttle page,
"media resources page," and also here for links:
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/groundtracs/When they are out, somebody will post a direct link in one of the mission threads.
(They are also often posted during NASA TV mission coverage on EOM-1, which is today...)
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#27
by
psloss
on 20 Jun, 2007 14:04
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#28
by
rdale
on 20 Jun, 2007 15:36
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Friday still "okay" at Kennedy, Thursday still a bit ugly.
Quick note - I'm going up to a cottage for a day, last year I did not have cell Internet access there but Verizon says they expanded and I will have it this time around. If you don't see a post from me by tonight though, then assume I won't be around here on Thursday...
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#29
by
Johnny Rönnberg
on 20 Jun, 2007 18:02
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Will EDW be open on Friday?
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#30
by
DaveS
on 20 Jun, 2007 18:13
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Johnny Rönnberg - 20/6/2007 8:02 PM
Will EDW be open on Friday?
Most likely yes.
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#31
by
Andrewwski
on 20 Jun, 2007 18:42
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Most likely wait until Friday, as they have three days of attempts.
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#32
by
psloss
on 20 Jun, 2007 18:46
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Gary - 20/6/2007 2:41 PM
If EDW is green on Thursday and KSC Red due to weather will they go for EDW or wave off until Friday for KSC?
Only KSC is being called up for Thursday, so they'll stay in orbit if KSC is no-go.
(FYI, the entry plan is in today's execute package; DaveS referred to it in the first post of today's live thread.)
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#33
by
sts1canada
on 20 Jun, 2007 19:07
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Right now KSC is looking no-go for tomorrow, there is a good chance of severe thunderstorms around the KSC area according to the latest forecast discussion from the NOAA Melbourne office (this NOAA office covers the forecast area (FA) of the KSC area. Friday, the weather is somewhat more promising but still not greatly ideal for a shuttle landing. Have a look at the forecast discussion below for some details, the weather does look pretty bad for tomorrow so I don't think we will have a chance to land at KSC on the two revs available:
The forecast discussion is posted in caps, as it is posted on the NOAA web site:
THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THURSDAY MAY BE MORE ACTIVE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. PENINSULAR VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF
FROM THE EXITING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENTLY...STRONGER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH THE SPACE COAST APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AT RISK (WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW). ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
WARM (-6C @ 500MB)...DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/K WILL RESULT IN AN ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE
OF STORMS. STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREATS. PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
ELEVATED...AS ANY BACKING TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW (ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES) WILL AMPLIFY THE PRE-EXISTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
FRI-WED...SLIGHT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VORT LOBE MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO SHEAR OUT...STILL PROVIDING THE
NECESSARY INSTABILITY AND COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY. THE MODELS OFTEN TANTALIZE US THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH PROSPECTS OF DRIER AIR AND DECREASED RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER...IT RARELY TURNS OUT THAT WAY...AS THE WET SEASON
CLIMATOLOGY HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON OUR DAY TO DAY WEATHER.
Richard
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#34
by
psloss
on 21 Jun, 2007 02:46
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Gary - 20/6/2007 7:30 PM
Sorry - I missed that in the execute package.
No worries...I think Friday will be the interesting decision day, if it gets to that.
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#35
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 03:08
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Do have enough net connectivity to get the basics but not near enough to do any analysis -- but Friday still looking like it may be a go for KSC. Thursday still quite stormy...
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#36
by
DaveS
on 21 Jun, 2007 12:44
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Latest forecast from SMG at JSC:
000
NOUS54 KWNJ 211144
OAVJSC
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUNE 21 2007
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-117
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 06/21/07
TIME: 1755Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - THURSDAY 06/21/07
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN050 OVC120 7 24008P13
TSRA WI 30 NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 22015P25
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 23018P28
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR FEW070 SCT120 7 16009P15
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30 NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/TS
EDW ... GUST/HWIND
NOR ... TS
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - FRIDAY 06/22/07
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT080 OVC250 7 20008P13
CHC TSRA WI 30 NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 23017P25
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 23019P30
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR FEW070 SCT120 7 17006P11
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30 NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... TS
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED
KSC...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
ORAM/GARNER/HOOD/EARLY
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#37
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 14:42
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Nothing changing from my side after a morning check... Showers over KSC now, clouds building, and exceptionally high (for FL) instability should lead to widespread thunderstorm development after lunch.
Computers still very optimistic about Friday KSC, but my thinking is that it's only a little bit better than today.
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#38
by
Chris Bergin
on 21 Jun, 2007 14:44
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What's your call on today's attempt from your chair Rob?
No one seems all that optimistic from the loops we get on L2.
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#39
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 14:49
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With showers already in the area and forming over Central FL and heading east - I would be very surprised if they try predicting a break in the weather with the timeframe needed for deorbit burn. Obviously it won't always be no-go conditions, but figuring out if a clear slot will time with landing is just not a good idea.