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STS-117 landing Weather
by
rdale
on 18 Jun, 2007 20:41
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#1
by
DaveS
on 18 Jun, 2007 20:49
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#2
by
lsullivan411
on 18 Jun, 2007 21:35
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With the extra prop that has been saved so far, is there enough for a 3rd landing day attempt, if the first 2 days are wave-offs? I realize they will try to come down by Friday at the latest, but just wondering prop wise if the extra day is available there too. Thanks.
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#3
by
DaveS
on 18 Jun, 2007 21:49
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lsullivan411 - 18/6/2007 11:35 PM
With the extra prop that has been saved so far, is there enough for a 3rd landing day attempt, if the first 2 days are wave-offs? I realize they will try to come down by Friday at the latest, but just wondering prop wise if the extra day is available there too. Thanks.
It isn't the RCS or OMS propellant that matters. It's the cryo consumables for the threes fuel cells.
If they run out of either LOX or LH2, you're going to loose all three cells os that is good bye to all your electronics!
Right now I believe they're down to just one contigency day just like STS-116. So I would expect them to bring up all landing sites on Thursday. And they're limited to the LOX, not LH2.
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#4
by
gordo
on 18 Jun, 2007 21:58
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If KSC is forecast as crap on Attempt days 1 and 2, it is highly likely that they will bring them to Edwards on first attempt. Buys a day back on ferry, it if was obvious KSC was not close to being an option.
I'm pretty sure Flight rules only allow for the 3rd day attempts if D1 and D2 have been weather waves offs. On Day 3 you come home to wherever you can land.
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#5
by
DaveS
on 18 Jun, 2007 23:29
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After watching the briefing by Phil Engelauf, I think this is going to be the entry strategy choseb by Norm Knight:
EOM: KSC two attempts
EOM+1: KSC two attempts, EDW two attempts
EOM+2: KSC two attempts, EDW three attempts, NOR two attempts
EOM+3: Identical to EOM+3
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#6
by
ETEE
on 18 Jun, 2007 23:32
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They have 3 days of consumables available confirmed in conference just ended. It was stated that no particular consumable was limited. The third day would be used if a system failure occurred on the second weather wave off day.
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#7
by
psloss
on 19 Jun, 2007 02:15
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DaveS - 18/6/2007 7:29 PM
After watching the briefing by Phil Engelauf, I think this is going to be the entry strategy choseb by Norm Knight:
EOM: KSC two attempts
EOM+1: KSC two attempts, EDW two attempts
EOM+2: KSC two attempts, EDW three attempts, NOR two attempts
EOM+3: Identical to EOM+3
Unless the vehicle "health" changes, Engelauf said they would land no later than Saturday. They could wave off for weather on Thursday and Friday, but on Saturday they would only wave off for systems issues; if the vehicle remains healthy and weather is good at any of the CONUS sites on Saturday, they'll land. (Obviously if they get a good rev into KSC on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday, they'll most likely take it.)
(The forecasts for the CONUS sites could still play into the decisions depending on what they look like...although Edwards at this time of the year is usually good for landing attempts.)
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#8
by
rdale
on 19 Jun, 2007 03:00
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There's always hope of sliding in between storms on EOM day, but I can't see winds being a prohibitive issue for EDW on +1 so Friday should about do it...
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#9
by
psloss
on 19 Jun, 2007 14:32
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rdale - 18/6/2007 11:00 PM
There's always hope of sliding in between storms on EOM day, but I can't see winds being a prohibitive issue for EDW on +1 so Friday should about do it...
The first question I'd have for Norm Knight on hypotheticals is what they'd do if they get to Friday, KSC is no-go, and the EDW forecast for Saturday is good. In the past they've stayed up another day, but the last EDW forecast I saw for Saturday was a little iffy on the winds.
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#10
by
Ikelos
on 19 Jun, 2007 15:40
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Does anyone happen to know the times of the possible landing attempts yet?
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#11
by
psloss
on 19 Jun, 2007 16:17
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Edit: removing post content, 'cause it was just plain wrong.
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#12
by
collectSPACE
on 19 Jun, 2007 16:20
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Thursday's landing opportunities at Kennedy are at 1:54 p.m. and 3:29 p.m. EDT. The backup landing sites at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., and White Sands Space Harbor, N.M., will not be considered on Thursday.
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#13
by
Rocket Guy
on 19 Jun, 2007 16:22
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#14
by
sts1canada
on 19 Jun, 2007 16:24
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Here is a complete listing of all deorbit opps. for STS-117 from Bill Harwood's Space Place site:
All times are Eastern Daylight times:
"Editor's Note...
Current as of 6/19/07
DAY...EDT........DD...HH...MM...EVENT
06/21/07
Thu...12:52 PM...12...17...14...Deorbit ignition (orbit 202)
Thu...01:54 PM...12...18...16...KSC: Landing
BACKUP LANDING OPPORTUNITIES
06/21/07
Thu...02:28 PM...12...18...50...KSC: Deorbit on rev 203
Thu...03:29 PM...12...19...51...KSC: Landing
Thu...03:57 PM...12...20...19...EDW: Deorbit on rev 204
Thu...04:59 PM...12...21...21...EDW: Landing
Thu...05:33 PM...12...21...55...EDW: Deorbit on rev 205
Thu...06:34 PM...12...22...56...EDW: Landing
06/22/07
Fri...01:13 PM...13...17...35...KSC: Deorbit on rev 218
Fri...02:15 PM...13...18...37...KSC: Landing
Fri...02:49 PM...13...19...11...KSC: Deorbit on rev 219
Fri...03:50 PM...13...20...12...KSC: Landing
Fri...04:18 PM...13...20...40...EDW: Deorbit on rev 220
Fri...05:20 PM...13...21...42...EDW: Landing
Fri...05:54 PM...13...22...16...EDW: Deorbit on rev 221
Fri...06:55 PM...13...23...17...EDW: Landing
06/23/07
Sat...11:58 AM...14...16...20...KSC: Deorbit on rev 233
Sat...01:00 PM...14...17...22...KSC: Landing
Sat...01:30 PM...14...17...52...NOR: Deorbit on rev 234
Sat...02:32 PM...14...18...54...NOR: Landing
Sat...01:34 PM...14...17...56...KSC: Deorbit on rev 234
Sat...02:35 PM...14...18...57...KSC: Landing
Sat...03:03 PM...14...19...25...EDW: Deorbit on rev 235
Sat...04:05 PM...14...20...27...EDW: Landing
Sat...03:05 PM...14...19...27...NOR: Deorbit on rev 235
Sat...04:07 PM...14...20...29...NOR: Landing
Sat...04:39 PM...14...21...01...EDW: Deorbit on rev 236
Sat...05:40 PM...14...22...02...EDW: Landing
Sat...04:41 PM...14...21...03...NOR: Deorbit on rev 236
Sat...05:42 PM...14...22...04...NOR: Landing
http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/currentglance.html#LANDINGKSC is Kennedy Space Center, Florida , NOR is Northup White Sands, New Mexico, and EDW is Edwards Air Force Base in California.
Richard
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#15
by
Endeavour118
on 19 Jun, 2007 18:02
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who will be on the STAs that day for KSC i know it's steve lindsey but who will it BE FOR EDW AND NOR
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#16
by
DaveS
on 19 Jun, 2007 18:05
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Endeavour118 - 19/6/2007 8:02 PM
who will be on the STAs that day for KSC i know it's steve lindsey but who will it BE FOR EDW AND NOR
STA PLT for EDW will be Scott Altman.
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#17
by
rdale
on 19 Jun, 2007 19:58
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No improvement in my forecast for Thursday, Friday marginally better at KSC but still quite good at Edwards (other than winds, which get ever worse by Saturday.)
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#18
by
psloss
on 19 Jun, 2007 20:05
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rdale - 19/6/2007 3:58 PM
No improvement in my forecast for Thursday, Friday marginally better at KSC but still quite good at Edwards (other than winds, which get ever worse by Saturday.)
What's your take on Saturday at KSC, Rob?
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#19
by
sts1canada
on 19 Jun, 2007 20:17
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Yes I agree, there will be a mid level pocket of cool air to promote wider coverage of convection of showers, t-storms over the KSC area Thursday afternoon (currently a 60% chance of precip for Thursday), and on Friday afternoon, expect a chance of sea-breeze showers and t-storms to form with the convergence of westerly winds and the inland sea breeze, a 30% chance of precip), My best guess for a KSC landing this mission would be the second attempt on Friday (landing around 3:50 PM, hoping the sea breeze moves more inland), otherwise we are looking at landing at Edwards. Landing at KSC in the middle of the afternoon in the summertime is going to be tough to do if you are trying to avoid towering CB, CU (lighting & precip potential) & showers & storms that are 30 nautical miles or closer around the SLF.
Here is the detailed forecast discussion for Thursday/Friday from the NOAA Melbourne office (sorry for the caps, that is how the FD is posted)
"THU...MID LVL TROUGH STILL OVER THE AREA THU WITH SFC LOW OFF THE NE
FL COAST. WILL CONTINUE HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS IN THE 50-60 PCT
RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. STILL EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BUT
MAY SEEM SOME LATE AFTN BREAK ACROSS NW SECTIONS IN THE AFTN. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.
FRI-TUE...TREND OF THE GFS IS TO MOVE MAIN VORT AND MID LVL S/W EAST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY BUT BROAD MID LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER E
CENTRAL FL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH NW MID LVL FLOW
FRIDAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS THAT RECIEVE STRONG SFC HTG AND
POTENTIAL ISOLD SVR STORMS (MAINLY SOUTH) IN THE AFTN."
Richard
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#20
by
rdale
on 19 Jun, 2007 21:00
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KSC still has a storm threat on Saturday but not as widespread.
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#21
by
psloss
on 19 Jun, 2007 21:38
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rdale - 19/6/2007 5:00 PM
KSC still has a storm threat on Saturday but not as widespread.
Thanks, Rob...
Updated SMG forecast is out:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
500 PM CDT TUESDAY JUNE 19 2007
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-117
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 06/21/07
TIME: 1755Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
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.
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - THURSDAY 06/21/07
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN050 OVC120 7 21008P13
TSRA WI 30 NM
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FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/TS
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#22
by
Ender0319
on 20 Jun, 2007 03:00
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I'm here at EDW for a few days and I'm told that we're not called up for the Thursday landing (which you all already knew). Sadly I won't be here for any shuttle landing attempt but it's hot and dry as hell (quite literally) here.
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#23
by
Ikelos
on 20 Jun, 2007 03:59
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And quite windy.
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#24
by
rdale
on 20 Jun, 2007 04:41
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No time to analyze much tonight, but it looks like Thursday may not be as ugly as previously forecast (still far from out of the woods as my initial feeling is there will be too many storms around to try threading a needle far enough in advance to deorbit) but Friday looking notably better as the trend of bringing in the drier air more rapidly continues... The computer that earlier today said 54% chance of storms on Friday is now saying 6%! Other one (more trustworthy) staying steady around 30%.
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#25
by
elmarko
on 20 Jun, 2007 10:38
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Just a quick one, when are the landing tracks released?
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#26
by
psloss
on 20 Jun, 2007 10:57
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elmarko - 20/6/2007 6:38 AM
Just a quick one, when are the landing tracks released?
It varies from mission to mission...the statement on
the website is "usually posted 24 to 48 hours before landing":
I don't see anything yet, but keep an eye on the NASA shuttle page,
"media resources page," and also here for links:
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/groundtracs/When they are out, somebody will post a direct link in one of the mission threads.
(They are also often posted during NASA TV mission coverage on EOM-1, which is today...)
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#27
by
psloss
on 20 Jun, 2007 14:04
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#28
by
rdale
on 20 Jun, 2007 15:36
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Friday still "okay" at Kennedy, Thursday still a bit ugly.
Quick note - I'm going up to a cottage for a day, last year I did not have cell Internet access there but Verizon says they expanded and I will have it this time around. If you don't see a post from me by tonight though, then assume I won't be around here on Thursday...
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#29
by
Johnny Rönnberg
on 20 Jun, 2007 18:02
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Will EDW be open on Friday?
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#30
by
DaveS
on 20 Jun, 2007 18:13
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Johnny Rönnberg - 20/6/2007 8:02 PM
Will EDW be open on Friday?
Most likely yes.
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#31
by
Andrewwski
on 20 Jun, 2007 18:42
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Most likely wait until Friday, as they have three days of attempts.
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#32
by
psloss
on 20 Jun, 2007 18:46
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Gary - 20/6/2007 2:41 PM
If EDW is green on Thursday and KSC Red due to weather will they go for EDW or wave off until Friday for KSC?
Only KSC is being called up for Thursday, so they'll stay in orbit if KSC is no-go.
(FYI, the entry plan is in today's execute package; DaveS referred to it in the first post of today's live thread.)
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#33
by
sts1canada
on 20 Jun, 2007 19:07
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Right now KSC is looking no-go for tomorrow, there is a good chance of severe thunderstorms around the KSC area according to the latest forecast discussion from the NOAA Melbourne office (this NOAA office covers the forecast area (FA) of the KSC area. Friday, the weather is somewhat more promising but still not greatly ideal for a shuttle landing. Have a look at the forecast discussion below for some details, the weather does look pretty bad for tomorrow so I don't think we will have a chance to land at KSC on the two revs available:
The forecast discussion is posted in caps, as it is posted on the NOAA web site:
THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THURSDAY MAY BE MORE ACTIVE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. PENINSULAR VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF
FROM THE EXITING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENTLY...STRONGER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH THE SPACE COAST APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AT RISK (WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW). ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
WARM (-6C @ 500MB)...DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/K WILL RESULT IN AN ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE
OF STORMS. STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREATS. PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
ELEVATED...AS ANY BACKING TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW (ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES) WILL AMPLIFY THE PRE-EXISTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
FRI-WED...SLIGHT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VORT LOBE MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO SHEAR OUT...STILL PROVIDING THE
NECESSARY INSTABILITY AND COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY. THE MODELS OFTEN TANTALIZE US THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH PROSPECTS OF DRIER AIR AND DECREASED RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER...IT RARELY TURNS OUT THAT WAY...AS THE WET SEASON
CLIMATOLOGY HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON OUR DAY TO DAY WEATHER.
Richard
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#34
by
psloss
on 21 Jun, 2007 02:46
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Gary - 20/6/2007 7:30 PM
Sorry - I missed that in the execute package.
No worries...I think Friday will be the interesting decision day, if it gets to that.
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#35
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 03:08
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Do have enough net connectivity to get the basics but not near enough to do any analysis -- but Friday still looking like it may be a go for KSC. Thursday still quite stormy...
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#36
by
DaveS
on 21 Jun, 2007 12:44
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Latest forecast from SMG at JSC:
000
NOUS54 KWNJ 211144
OAVJSC
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUNE 21 2007
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-117
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 06/21/07
TIME: 1755Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - THURSDAY 06/21/07
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN050 OVC120 7 24008P13
TSRA WI 30 NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 22015P25
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 23018P28
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR FEW070 SCT120 7 16009P15
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30 NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/TS
EDW ... GUST/HWIND
NOR ... TS
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - FRIDAY 06/22/07
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT080 OVC250 7 20008P13
CHC TSRA WI 30 NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 23017P25
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 23019P30
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR FEW070 SCT120 7 17006P11
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30 NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... TS
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED
KSC...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
ORAM/GARNER/HOOD/EARLY
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#37
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 14:42
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Nothing changing from my side after a morning check... Showers over KSC now, clouds building, and exceptionally high (for FL) instability should lead to widespread thunderstorm development after lunch.
Computers still very optimistic about Friday KSC, but my thinking is that it's only a little bit better than today.
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#38
by
Chris Bergin
on 21 Jun, 2007 14:44
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What's your call on today's attempt from your chair Rob?
No one seems all that optimistic from the loops we get on L2.
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#39
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 14:49
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With showers already in the area and forming over Central FL and heading east - I would be very surprised if they try predicting a break in the weather with the timeframe needed for deorbit burn. Obviously it won't always be no-go conditions, but figuring out if a clear slot will time with landing is just not a good idea.
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#40
by
psloss
on 21 Jun, 2007 16:04
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Was that low sort of east of Jacksonville forecast? I must have missed the wording but it's easier to spot now on the satellite loop.
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#41
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 16:09
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No surprises with that one... And as the low continues to drift south, conditions will continue to worsen. I see no hope of the next rev being any better at all.
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#42
by
Kel
on 21 Jun, 2007 16:16
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#43
by
Citabria
on 21 Jun, 2007 16:17
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Good! More space time for them and more sighting ops for us. :cool:
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#44
by
xlr82v2
on 21 Jun, 2007 17:06
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KTTS 211640Z VRB02KT 9SM SCT026TCU BKN060 BKN260 27/22 A2993 RMK SCT V BKN TCU NE SLP135 4TCU 2SC /6/ 1CI /7/ N2902/08 C1904/08 S1807/13
KTTS 210202 18006KT 9999 FEW050 FEW150 BKN300 QNH2995INS
BECMG 1617 15012KT 9999 VCTS SCT025CB BKN080 BKN250 QNH2993INS
TEMPO 1722 VRB25G35KT 4800 TSRA BKN020CB OVC100
BECMG 2223 16010KT 9999 NSW SCT020 SCT050 BKN100 BKN250 QNH2996INS T30/19Z T22/10Z
Obviously, Not looking very good for today...
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#45
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 17:09
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No storms in the area - but still scattered showers and low clouds should prevent opportunity #2 from being utilized today...
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#46
by
xlr82v2
on 21 Jun, 2007 17:16
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KTTS 211640Z VRB02KT 9SM SCT026TCU BKN060 BKN260 27/22 A2993 RMK SCT V BKN TCU NE SLP135 4TCU 2SC /6/ 1CI /7/ N2902/08 C1904/08 S1807/13
KTTS 210202 18006KT 9999 FEW050 FEW150 BKN300 QNH2995INS
BECMG 1617 15012KT 9999 VCTS SCT025CB BKN080 BKN250 QNH2993INS
TEMPO 1722 VRB25G35KT 4800 TSRA BKN020CB OVC100
BECMG 2223 16010KT 9999 NSW SCT020 SCT050 BKN100 BKN250 QNH2996INS T30/19Z T22/10Z
Not looking good...
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#47
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 17:23
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xlr - that's the exact same old observation and forecast you posted a half-hour ago in both threads ;>
1710Z ob from the strip has broken clouds at 5000ft.
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#48
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2007 17:34
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Cloud-to-ground lightning now on the 30mi zone, and showers just east of the landing strip are getting stronger so I'm going to call it a day... I will be around tomorrow morning for another forecast, but will be on the road during the afternoon.
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#49
by
psloss
on 21 Jun, 2007 20:05
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#50
by
DaveS
on 22 Jun, 2007 00:28
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#51
by
psloss
on 22 Jun, 2007 00:43
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#52
by
rdale
on 22 Jun, 2007 13:37
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Obviously a much nicer start to the Floridian day but already a few showers forming north of KSC. To be honest I'm not that pessimistic about today, but again predicting storm formation far enough in advance to allow for deorbit burn is just downright tough. Edwards still should be good regardless (at least for the first try.)
I will not be online again until very late tonight.
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#53
by
daveglo
on 22 Jun, 2007 17:17
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#54
by
Ikelos
on 22 Jun, 2007 17:22
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#55
by
rdale
on 24 Jun, 2007 21:15
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Just curious - anyone know what KSC's actual conditions were at the time of Friday's two landing attempts?
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#56
by
ETEE
on 24 Jun, 2007 22:41
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rdale - 24/6/2007 10:15 PM
Just curious - anyone know what KSC's actual conditions were at the time of Friday's two landing attempts?
The post flight conference stated that there were showers within the limits so the call to go to Edwards was fully validated.