STS-117 landing Weather

STS-117 landing Weather by rdale on 18 Jun, 2007 20:41
Looks like we're going west... KSC should see numerous showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as an upper level system moves overhead and brings in cooler mid-level temperatures (good for pop-up storms.) I have a hard time seeing them getting in to Florida with this pattern.

On the other hand - Edwards AFB should see a high of 100-105 with a 2% chance of rain Thursday and 1% on Friday ;> Actually I have a minor concern with wind speeds but not expecting things to get out of control (12-18mph). Friday winds may be a little worse, but again I don't see a reason they wouldn't go there on Thursday.

USAF forecasts pretty much the same:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061114-008.pdf

https://bsx.edwards.af.mil/text/fiveday.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_conus_pg1.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_conus_pg2.html

{Edited as DaveS reminded me -- to add the SMG official forecasts as well, right now the current End Of Mission forecasts are on Page 2}
#1 by DaveS on 18 Jun, 2007 20:49
Thanks for the early weather forecats for both KSC and Edwards! Also here's a link to the SMG's official CONUS weather listing: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_conus_pg1.html
#2 by lsullivan411 on 18 Jun, 2007 21:35
With the extra prop that has been saved so far, is there enough for a 3rd landing day attempt, if the first 2 days are wave-offs? I realize they will try to come down by Friday at the latest, but just wondering prop wise if the extra day is available there too. Thanks.
#3 by DaveS on 18 Jun, 2007 21:49
Quote
lsullivan411 - 18/6/2007 11:35 PM

With the extra prop that has been saved so far, is there enough for a 3rd landing day attempt, if the first 2 days are wave-offs? I realize they will try to come down by Friday at the latest, but just wondering prop wise if the extra day is available there too. Thanks.
It isn't the RCS or OMS propellant that matters. It's the cryo consumables for the threes fuel cells.

If they run out of either LOX or LH2, you're going to loose all three cells os that is good bye to all your electronics!

Right now I believe they're down to just one contigency day just like STS-116. So I would expect them to bring up all landing sites on Thursday. And they're limited to the LOX, not LH2.
#4 by gordo on 18 Jun, 2007 21:58
If KSC is forecast as crap on Attempt days 1 and 2, it is highly likely that they will bring them to Edwards on first attempt. Buys a day back on ferry, it if was obvious KSC was not close to being an option.

I'm pretty sure Flight rules only allow for the 3rd day attempts if D1 and D2 have been weather waves offs. On Day 3 you come home to wherever you can land.
#5 by DaveS on 18 Jun, 2007 23:29
After watching the briefing by Phil Engelauf, I think this is going to be the entry strategy choseb by Norm Knight:

EOM: KSC two attempts
EOM+1: KSC two attempts, EDW two attempts
EOM+2: KSC two attempts, EDW three attempts, NOR two attempts
EOM+3: Identical to EOM+3
#6 by ETEE on 18 Jun, 2007 23:32
They have 3 days of consumables available confirmed in conference just ended. It was stated that no particular consumable was limited. The third day would be used if a system failure occurred on the second weather wave off day.
#7 by psloss on 19 Jun, 2007 02:15
Quote
DaveS - 18/6/2007 7:29 PM

After watching the briefing by Phil Engelauf, I think this is going to be the entry strategy choseb by Norm Knight:

EOM: KSC two attempts
EOM+1: KSC two attempts, EDW two attempts
EOM+2: KSC two attempts, EDW three attempts, NOR two attempts
EOM+3: Identical to EOM+3
Unless the vehicle "health" changes, Engelauf said they would land no later than Saturday. They could wave off for weather on Thursday and Friday, but on Saturday they would only wave off for systems issues; if the vehicle remains healthy and weather is good at any of the CONUS sites on Saturday, they'll land. (Obviously if they get a good rev into KSC on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday, they'll most likely take it.)

(The forecasts for the CONUS sites could still play into the decisions depending on what they look like...although Edwards at this time of the year is usually good for landing attempts.)
#8 by rdale on 19 Jun, 2007 03:00
There's always hope of sliding in between storms on EOM day, but I can't see winds being a prohibitive issue for EDW on +1 so Friday should about do it...
#9 by psloss on 19 Jun, 2007 14:32
Quote
rdale - 18/6/2007 11:00 PM

There's always hope of sliding in between storms on EOM day, but I can't see winds being a prohibitive issue for EDW on +1 so Friday should about do it...
The first question I'd have for Norm Knight on hypotheticals is what they'd do if they get to Friday, KSC is no-go, and the EDW forecast for Saturday is good. In the past they've stayed up another day, but the last EDW forecast I saw for Saturday was a little iffy on the winds.
#10 by Ikelos on 19 Jun, 2007 15:40
Does anyone happen to know the times of the possible landing attempts yet?
#11 by psloss on 19 Jun, 2007 16:17
Edit: removing post content, 'cause it was just plain wrong.
#12 by collectSPACE on 19 Jun, 2007 16:20
Thursday's landing opportunities at Kennedy are at 1:54 p.m. and 3:29 p.m. EDT. The backup landing sites at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., and White Sands Space Harbor, N.M., will not be considered on Thursday.
#13 by Rocket Guy on 19 Jun, 2007 16:22
http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/currentglance.html#LANDING
#14 by sts1canada on 19 Jun, 2007 16:24
Here is a complete listing of all deorbit opps. for STS-117 from Bill Harwood's Space Place site:

All times are Eastern Daylight times:

"Editor's Note...
Current as of 6/19/07

DAY...EDT........DD...HH...MM...EVENT

06/21/07
Thu...12:52 PM...12...17...14...Deorbit ignition (orbit 202)
Thu...01:54 PM...12...18...16...KSC: Landing

BACKUP LANDING OPPORTUNITIES

06/21/07
Thu...02:28 PM...12...18...50...KSC: Deorbit on rev 203
Thu...03:29 PM...12...19...51...KSC: Landing
Thu...03:57 PM...12...20...19...EDW: Deorbit on rev 204
Thu...04:59 PM...12...21...21...EDW: Landing
Thu...05:33 PM...12...21...55...EDW: Deorbit on rev 205
Thu...06:34 PM...12...22...56...EDW: Landing

06/22/07
Fri...01:13 PM...13...17...35...KSC: Deorbit on rev 218
Fri...02:15 PM...13...18...37...KSC: Landing
Fri...02:49 PM...13...19...11...KSC: Deorbit on rev 219
Fri...03:50 PM...13...20...12...KSC: Landing
Fri...04:18 PM...13...20...40...EDW: Deorbit on rev 220
Fri...05:20 PM...13...21...42...EDW: Landing
Fri...05:54 PM...13...22...16...EDW: Deorbit on rev 221
Fri...06:55 PM...13...23...17...EDW: Landing

06/23/07
Sat...11:58 AM...14...16...20...KSC: Deorbit on rev 233
Sat...01:00 PM...14...17...22...KSC: Landing
Sat...01:30 PM...14...17...52...NOR: Deorbit on rev 234
Sat...02:32 PM...14...18...54...NOR: Landing
Sat...01:34 PM...14...17...56...KSC: Deorbit on rev 234
Sat...02:35 PM...14...18...57...KSC: Landing
Sat...03:03 PM...14...19...25...EDW: Deorbit on rev 235
Sat...04:05 PM...14...20...27...EDW: Landing
Sat...03:05 PM...14...19...27...NOR: Deorbit on rev 235
Sat...04:07 PM...14...20...29...NOR: Landing
Sat...04:39 PM...14...21...01...EDW: Deorbit on rev 236
Sat...05:40 PM...14...22...02...EDW: Landing
Sat...04:41 PM...14...21...03...NOR: Deorbit on rev 236
Sat...05:42 PM...14...22...04...NOR: Landing

http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/currentglance.html#LANDING

KSC is Kennedy Space Center, Florida , NOR is Northup White Sands, New Mexico, and EDW is Edwards Air Force Base in California.

Richard
#15 by Endeavour118 on 19 Jun, 2007 18:02
who will be on the STAs that day for KSC i know it's steve lindsey but who will it BE FOR EDW AND NOR
#16 by DaveS on 19 Jun, 2007 18:05
Quote
Endeavour118 - 19/6/2007 8:02 PM

who will be on the STAs that day for KSC i know it's steve lindsey but who will it BE FOR EDW AND NOR
STA PLT for EDW will be Scott Altman.
#17 by rdale on 19 Jun, 2007 19:58
No improvement in my forecast for Thursday, Friday marginally better at KSC but still quite good at Edwards (other than winds, which get ever worse by Saturday.)
#18 by psloss on 19 Jun, 2007 20:05
Quote
rdale - 19/6/2007 3:58 PM

No improvement in my forecast for Thursday, Friday marginally better at KSC but still quite good at Edwards (other than winds, which get ever worse by Saturday.)
What's your take on Saturday at KSC, Rob?
#19 by sts1canada on 19 Jun, 2007 20:17
Yes I agree, there will be a mid level pocket of cool air to promote wider coverage of convection of showers, t-storms over the KSC area Thursday afternoon (currently a 60% chance of precip for Thursday), and on Friday afternoon, expect a chance of sea-breeze showers and t-storms to form with the convergence of westerly winds and the inland sea breeze, a 30% chance of precip), My best guess for a KSC landing this mission would be the second attempt on Friday (landing around 3:50 PM, hoping the sea breeze moves more inland), otherwise we are looking at landing at Edwards. Landing at KSC in the middle of the afternoon in the summertime is going to be tough to do if you are trying to avoid towering CB, CU (lighting & precip potential) & showers & storms that are 30 nautical miles or closer around the SLF.

Here is the detailed forecast discussion for Thursday/Friday from the NOAA Melbourne office (sorry for the caps, that is how the FD is posted)

"THU...MID LVL TROUGH STILL OVER THE AREA THU WITH SFC LOW OFF THE NE
FL COAST. WILL CONTINUE HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS IN THE 50-60 PCT
RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. STILL EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BUT
MAY SEEM SOME LATE AFTN BREAK ACROSS NW SECTIONS IN THE AFTN. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

FRI-TUE...TREND OF THE GFS IS TO MOVE MAIN VORT AND MID LVL S/W EAST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY BUT BROAD MID LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER E
CENTRAL FL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH NW MID LVL FLOW
FRIDAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS THAT RECIEVE STRONG SFC HTG AND
POTENTIAL ISOLD SVR STORMS (MAINLY SOUTH) IN THE AFTN."

Richard