-
#20
by
sts1canada
on 06 Jun, 2007 13:52
-
This morning's forecast discussion from the meteorologists at the NWS Melbourne office is still encouraging for a Friday evening launch attempt, they expect the sea breeze storms to form early in the afternoon and then push to the west (inland) and the skies along the east coast should be clearing out (hopefully no anvils in the way from the sea breeze thunderstorms). Here is the section from this morning's discussion for Friday's weather (sorry it is in caps, that is the way it is posted on their site):
"THU-FRI...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS TO LIFT NORTHWARD...REACHING NORTH FL EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EARLIER SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL PUSH STORMS INLAND MORE QUICKLY. IN FACT...EXPECT
DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS ESP BY FRI AS DRIER AIR IS FCST TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE DRAWN HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40%) THU
ACROSS NORTH INTERIOR WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST...AND LOWEST
RAIN CHANCES ALG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE (~ 20%). FOR FRI...ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS. IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST BOTH
DAYS...REMAINING IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND."
Richard
-
#21
by
rdale
on 06 Jun, 2007 13:54
-
psloss - 6/6/2007 7:13 AM
What are the chances those models will converge as we get closer to Friday? 
Not very good. The basic premise though is that typical mid-day storms are in the forecast due to the sea breeze, and as long as the winds stay out of the north / east (which I see no reason to change) we should be okay.
-
#22
by
psloss
on 06 Jun, 2007 13:58
-
rdale - 6/6/2007 9:54 AM
Not very good. The basic premise though is that typical mid-day storms are in the forecast due to the sea breeze, and as long as the winds stay out of the north / east (which I see no reason to change) we should be okay.
Wow...so am I understanding you correctly that there's going to be a high degree of uncertainty even on Friday, with the models showing fairly divergent forecasts?
-
#23
by
rdale
on 06 Jun, 2007 14:19
-
For events like this the models rarely are in order... The old "butterfly in Brazil causing a tornado in Texas" analogy. There isn't a strong cold front sweeping through, or high pressure overhead keeping things quiet. It will be a subtle wind shift or temperature differential that is literally unable to be forecast that will cause the problems. But this also is a case where you can push the models aside - the models tell us that the pattern is conducive to typical summertime storms and we "basically" know how to predict those. But even still can't predict where they will form.
-
#24
by
psloss
on 06 Jun, 2007 14:25
-
Thanks, Rob.
-
#25
by
MySDCUserID
on 06 Jun, 2007 22:34
-
We just had some nasty T-storms roll through here, and were under lightning advisory for much of the late afternoon.
We definately need the rain though... so bring it!
-
#26
by
Chris Bergin
on 06 Jun, 2007 22:42
-
Reports of hail in Cocoa and West Melbourne.
-
#27
by
rdale
on 06 Jun, 2007 22:45
-
Some penny-sized hail reported right over the radar site in Melbourne, that activity is winding down and no lightning for a while now around KSC.
-
#28
by
DaveS
on 06 Jun, 2007 22:49
-
rdale - 7/6/2007 12:45 AM
Some penny-sized hail reported right over the radar site in Melbourne, that activity is winding down and no lightning for a while now around KSC.
Any in proximity to pad? That is what got them worried.
-
#29
by
MKremer
on 06 Jun, 2007 23:17
-
There's still some big stuff out there, but if we haven't heard any new breaking news by now, it should be OK.
-
#30
by
sts1canada
on 06 Jun, 2007 23:45
-
After watching the local NWS Melbourne radar loop for the past half hour between 6:30 PM - 7:00 PM EDT, it appeared that the heaviest part of the storms (highest reflectivity's - yellow/red color on radar indicating heavy precip) passed over the Melbourne - Cocoa areas as reported above, these locations are south-west of the LC-39 complex area and the storms were moving eastward, while lighter rain passed over the pad areas. So it appears that we missed this round of hail this time, keep your fingers crossed!
This is a loop of the storm activity near KSC at the time of the hail reports (this link will update every half hour from now on so it will soon be outdated)
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Metro.aspx?location=USFL0106&animate=trueRichard
-
#31
by
rdale
on 07 Jun, 2007 01:37
-
DaveS - 6/6/2007 6:49 PM
Any in proximity to pad? That is what got them worried.
No, Melbourne is about 30 miles south of KSC and the storms weren't really moving. Just light rain now, no more severe weather threat tonight.
-
#32
by
HKS
on 07 Jun, 2007 11:38
-
-
#33
by
TALsite
on 07 Jun, 2007 17:56
-
My little contribution to the Space Exploration
ZARAGOZA - Weather
(From the web INM-Spain)
Friday 8
Expected:
Rain probabilities: today 20% turning to 15% on launch day.
Winds: now 7 km/h NW - turning to 7 km/h N on launch day.
Temp: Max 32º C Min 17º C
Saturday 9
Expected:
Rain probabilities: turning to 55%.
Winds: 14 km/h S.
Temp: Max 33º C Min 20º C
Sunday 10
Expected:
Rain probabilities: 55%.
Winds: 14 km/h SE.
Temp: Max 30º C Min 21º C
Typical of us : good weather all week long while working, and bad weather to enjoy the weekend.
MORON looks better than us for a weekend launch.
Regards from the other side of the Atlantic…
-
#34
by
rdale
on 07 Jun, 2007 18:13
-
To answer psloss question about the models getting closer - just 24 hours out and one has 43% chance of storms tomorrow, the other has 9%.
-
#35
by
Avron
on 07 Jun, 2007 19:10
-
rdale - 7/6/2007 2:13 PM
To answer psloss question about the models getting closer - just 24 hours out and one has 43% chance of storms tomorrow, the other has 9%.
The only thing that has changed is we are closer to the launch.. still an avg or around 26%
-
#36
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 09:35
-
Latest forecast from the Spaceflight Meteorology Group:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0Only flagged issue is chance for fog at Istres...
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
600 AM CDT FRIDAY JUNE 08 2007
.
.
.
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT100 SCT250 7 10008P12
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW080 7 10002P03
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW250 7 36001P02
CHC 4 FG
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT030 SCT100 SCT250 7 10008P12
CHC TSRA WI 30 NM
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 06/09/07 04Z TO 06/09/07 05Z
EDW SKC 7 24012P18
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
FMI ... VIS
-
#37
by
DaveS
on 08 Jun, 2007 12:09
-
The current tanking weather forecast calls for scattered clouds at 3000 ft, broken at 10000 ft and a scattered layer at 25000 ft.
Winds will be from north-northeast at 5 peak 9 kts. Showers are expected. Temperature will be 77°F with a RH of 80%.
Probability of weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
-
#38
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 13:04
-
Latest observation from the SLF:
METAR KTTS 081255Z 35002KT 10SM FEW020 FEW060 BKN130 OVC270 25/22 A3013 RMK SLP203 1CU 1SC /1/ 7AC 4CI /7/
-
#39
by
rosbif73
on 08 Jun, 2007 13:21
-
psloss - 8/6/2007 3:04 PM
Latest observation from the SLF:
METAR KTTS 081255Z 35002KT 10SM FEW020 FEW060 BKN130 OVC270 25/22 A3013 RMK SLP203 1CU 1SC /1/ 7AC 4CI /7/
Anyone have a good link to an explanation of these WX abbrevs?
