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STS-117: Launch Weather Forecast
by
rdale
on 01 Jun, 2007 13:05
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After some welcome rains this weekend it looks like a more typical summertime pattern sets up (for a change) over Florida... High pressure centered over the western Atlantic Ocean will keep any major systems from coming across the state. The center of that high should be close enough to keep the normal afternoon storms on the quiet side, and given the lack of rain lately that's a safe bet for now.
General outlook: High of 89, Low of 73, 25% chance of an afternoon or early evening storm.
As time passes the chance for daytime storms increases if they don't get off on the first opportunity - but still nothing major.
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#1
by
jacqmans
on 01 Jun, 2007 17:13
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#2
by
Andrewwski
on 02 Jun, 2007 00:38
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No impact from TS Barry then? I know it will be long passed before then, but would a potential change in path affect any pre-launch activities earlier in the week?
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#3
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 02 Jun, 2007 01:54
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There shouldn't be any impact. As of right now the storm is expected to bring needed rain to the area and some light winds around 20mph.
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#4
by
MySDCUserID
on 02 Jun, 2007 02:46
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It's just raining here. Though, I'm sure the media will milk it. This storm will be a good thing because it will lower the wild fire threat.
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#5
by
rdale
on 02 Jun, 2007 03:40
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No impact from Barry. 30 years ago it wouldn't even have been named, and just five yeras ago neither would Andrea, but it sounds so much better for the record-keeping and climate-changing to have 2 by the first day of the season.
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#6
by
Bubbinski
on 02 Jun, 2007 12:20
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So that's why the first tropical storm of the season was named Barry....they're now naming subtropical depressions??? What's next, naming tropical waves? Monsoon storms? Is this why we're getting so many named storms lately? I just have to shake my head.
I've been watching this closely since I fly out to FL next Wednesday....want everything to stay on track for the launch! That's good to know Barry won't impact anything.
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#7
by
rdale
on 03 Jun, 2007 00:41
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No change in my forecast... Upper-80's with a less than normal chance of afternoon storms.
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#8
by
MKremer
on 03 Jun, 2007 01:13
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rdale - 2/6/2007 7:41 PM
No change in my forecast... Upper-80's with a less than normal chance of afternoon storms.
Other than some kind of surprisingly sudden tropical flareup nearby, I can't imagine any showstoppers other than upper-level wind speed conditions.
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#9
by
rdale
on 03 Jun, 2007 21:00
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NWS forecast from this afternoon calls for a 20% chance of storms on Friday, again below normal for this time of year... I might not go that low, but still nothing to get overly concerned about.
Max wind through 100,000ft forecast to be about 30mph.
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#10
by
sts1canada
on 03 Jun, 2007 23:57
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Here is the current NWS forecast for the KSC area, now I know it still five days out from June 8 and I don't need to be reminded that things can change, we all know that weather forecast models can change their predicts and trends and the forecast can change but right now the launch weather conditions look pretty good for Friday afternoon (tanking) -evening (launch), 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. West wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?map.x=215&map.y=99&site=mlbRichard
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#11
by
sts1canada
on 04 Jun, 2007 00:25
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Looking at the extended part of the forecast discussion by the mets at the NWS Melbourne office, the sea breeze thunderstorms are expected to flare up later in the week along the coast ( a normal occurrence this time of year), but the upper level steering flow will be coming more from a northerly direction and steer these storms more inland and away from the coast, here is the excerpt of the forecast discussion to support this (sorry for the caps, this is how this info is posted): "DAILY SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR LATER THIS WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (gusty winds between high and low pressure). MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE MID 90S INLAND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE LIMITED TO 700MB (700mb height is around 10,500 feet) AND BELOW THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BACK TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. STEERING FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THEN EAST BY SUNDAY WILL TEND TO DRIVE STORMS MORE TO THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY."
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10Richard
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#12
by
jacqmans
on 04 Jun, 2007 14:38
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#13
by
rdale
on 04 Jun, 2007 15:23
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As you can see NWS and DoD forecasters are bringing their storm chances up to what my numbers were. Now I'm getting a wee-bit more concerned now for lightning in the area - the high pressure system is now forecast to be a little farther out into the Atlantic, which means the winds to push the sea-breeze storms inland will be weaker. Odds still better than normal for this time of the year in Florida, but I'm going with a 40% chance of storms now...
The last remaining good piece of info is that the winds through the upper-levels are out of the north and northeast so anvils will move inland and not be an influence.
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#14
by
rdale
on 04 Jun, 2007 23:04
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Won't have a chance to do any analysis tonight - but the latest computer model run now has a 50% chance of storms on Friday...
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#15
by
psloss
on 05 Jun, 2007 12:18
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#16
by
rdale
on 06 Jun, 2007 03:31
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The joy of computers ;>
Chances of storms Wed/Thu/Fri from one computer:
60% / 59% / 48%
The other computer:
42% / 25% / 5%
Notice anything different? I think the 5 is too low but the 48 way too high still.
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#17
by
Avron
on 06 Jun, 2007 03:41
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rdale - 5/6/2007 11:31 PM
The joy of computers ;>
Chances of storms Wed/Thu/Fri from one computer:
60% / 59% / 48%
The other computer:
42% / 25% / 5%
Notice anything different? I think the 5 is too low but the 48 way too high still.
Not sure the ave for friday of 26% is any good.. but I'll take it over the 30% official
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#18
by
psloss
on 06 Jun, 2007 11:13
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rdale - 5/6/2007 11:31 PM
The joy of computers ;>
What are the chances those models will converge as we get closer to Friday?
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#19
by
psloss
on 06 Jun, 2007 11:30
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Updated forecast from the 45th Weather Squadron is available (same link as above)...Friday's forecast is largely the same, but the probably of weather prohibiting launch during the windows on Saturday and Sunday is up to 40%.
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#20
by
sts1canada
on 06 Jun, 2007 13:52
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This morning's forecast discussion from the meteorologists at the NWS Melbourne office is still encouraging for a Friday evening launch attempt, they expect the sea breeze storms to form early in the afternoon and then push to the west (inland) and the skies along the east coast should be clearing out (hopefully no anvils in the way from the sea breeze thunderstorms). Here is the section from this morning's discussion for Friday's weather (sorry it is in caps, that is the way it is posted on their site):
"THU-FRI...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS TO LIFT NORTHWARD...REACHING NORTH FL EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EARLIER SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL PUSH STORMS INLAND MORE QUICKLY. IN FACT...EXPECT
DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS ESP BY FRI AS DRIER AIR IS FCST TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE DRAWN HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40%) THU
ACROSS NORTH INTERIOR WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST...AND LOWEST
RAIN CHANCES ALG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE (~ 20%). FOR FRI...ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS. IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST BOTH
DAYS...REMAINING IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND."
Richard
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#21
by
rdale
on 06 Jun, 2007 13:54
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psloss - 6/6/2007 7:13 AM
What are the chances those models will converge as we get closer to Friday?
Not very good. The basic premise though is that typical mid-day storms are in the forecast due to the sea breeze, and as long as the winds stay out of the north / east (which I see no reason to change) we should be okay.
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#22
by
psloss
on 06 Jun, 2007 13:58
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rdale - 6/6/2007 9:54 AM
Not very good. The basic premise though is that typical mid-day storms are in the forecast due to the sea breeze, and as long as the winds stay out of the north / east (which I see no reason to change) we should be okay.
Wow...so am I understanding you correctly that there's going to be a high degree of uncertainty even on Friday, with the models showing fairly divergent forecasts?
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#23
by
rdale
on 06 Jun, 2007 14:19
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For events like this the models rarely are in order... The old "butterfly in Brazil causing a tornado in Texas" analogy. There isn't a strong cold front sweeping through, or high pressure overhead keeping things quiet. It will be a subtle wind shift or temperature differential that is literally unable to be forecast that will cause the problems. But this also is a case where you can push the models aside - the models tell us that the pattern is conducive to typical summertime storms and we "basically" know how to predict those. But even still can't predict where they will form.
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#24
by
psloss
on 06 Jun, 2007 14:25
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Thanks, Rob.
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#25
by
MySDCUserID
on 06 Jun, 2007 22:34
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We just had some nasty T-storms roll through here, and were under lightning advisory for much of the late afternoon.
We definately need the rain though... so bring it!
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#26
by
Chris Bergin
on 06 Jun, 2007 22:42
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Reports of hail in Cocoa and West Melbourne.
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#27
by
rdale
on 06 Jun, 2007 22:45
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Some penny-sized hail reported right over the radar site in Melbourne, that activity is winding down and no lightning for a while now around KSC.
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#28
by
DaveS
on 06 Jun, 2007 22:49
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rdale - 7/6/2007 12:45 AM
Some penny-sized hail reported right over the radar site in Melbourne, that activity is winding down and no lightning for a while now around KSC.
Any in proximity to pad? That is what got them worried.
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#29
by
MKremer
on 06 Jun, 2007 23:17
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There's still some big stuff out there, but if we haven't heard any new breaking news by now, it should be OK.
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#30
by
sts1canada
on 06 Jun, 2007 23:45
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After watching the local NWS Melbourne radar loop for the past half hour between 6:30 PM - 7:00 PM EDT, it appeared that the heaviest part of the storms (highest reflectivity's - yellow/red color on radar indicating heavy precip) passed over the Melbourne - Cocoa areas as reported above, these locations are south-west of the LC-39 complex area and the storms were moving eastward, while lighter rain passed over the pad areas. So it appears that we missed this round of hail this time, keep your fingers crossed!
This is a loop of the storm activity near KSC at the time of the hail reports (this link will update every half hour from now on so it will soon be outdated)
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Metro.aspx?location=USFL0106&animate=trueRichard
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#31
by
rdale
on 07 Jun, 2007 01:37
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DaveS - 6/6/2007 6:49 PM
Any in proximity to pad? That is what got them worried.
No, Melbourne is about 30 miles south of KSC and the storms weren't really moving. Just light rain now, no more severe weather threat tonight.
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#32
by
HKS
on 07 Jun, 2007 11:38
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#33
by
TALsite
on 07 Jun, 2007 17:56
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My little contribution to the Space Exploration
ZARAGOZA - Weather
(From the web INM-Spain)
Friday 8
Expected:
Rain probabilities: today 20% turning to 15% on launch day.
Winds: now 7 km/h NW - turning to 7 km/h N on launch day.
Temp: Max 32º C Min 17º C
Saturday 9
Expected:
Rain probabilities: turning to 55%.
Winds: 14 km/h S.
Temp: Max 33º C Min 20º C
Sunday 10
Expected:
Rain probabilities: 55%.
Winds: 14 km/h SE.
Temp: Max 30º C Min 21º C
Typical of us : good weather all week long while working, and bad weather to enjoy the weekend.
MORON looks better than us for a weekend launch.
Regards from the other side of the Atlantic…
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#34
by
rdale
on 07 Jun, 2007 18:13
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To answer psloss question about the models getting closer - just 24 hours out and one has 43% chance of storms tomorrow, the other has 9%.
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#35
by
Avron
on 07 Jun, 2007 19:10
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rdale - 7/6/2007 2:13 PM
To answer psloss question about the models getting closer - just 24 hours out and one has 43% chance of storms tomorrow, the other has 9%.
The only thing that has changed is we are closer to the launch.. still an avg or around 26%
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#36
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 09:35
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Latest forecast from the Spaceflight Meteorology Group:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0Only flagged issue is chance for fog at Istres...
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
600 AM CDT FRIDAY JUNE 08 2007
.
.
.
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT100 SCT250 7 10008P12
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW080 7 10002P03
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW250 7 36001P02
CHC 4 FG
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT030 SCT100 SCT250 7 10008P12
CHC TSRA WI 30 NM
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 06/09/07 04Z TO 06/09/07 05Z
EDW SKC 7 24012P18
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
FMI ... VIS
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#37
by
DaveS
on 08 Jun, 2007 12:09
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The current tanking weather forecast calls for scattered clouds at 3000 ft, broken at 10000 ft and a scattered layer at 25000 ft.
Winds will be from north-northeast at 5 peak 9 kts. Showers are expected. Temperature will be 77°F with a RH of 80%.
Probability of weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
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#38
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 13:04
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Latest observation from the SLF:
METAR KTTS 081255Z 35002KT 10SM FEW020 FEW060 BKN130 OVC270 25/22 A3013 RMK SLP203 1CU 1SC /1/ 7AC 4CI /7/
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#39
by
rosbif73
on 08 Jun, 2007 13:21
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psloss - 8/6/2007 3:04 PM
Latest observation from the SLF:
METAR KTTS 081255Z 35002KT 10SM FEW020 FEW060 BKN130 OVC270 25/22 A3013 RMK SLP203 1CU 1SC /1/ 7AC 4CI /7/
Anyone have a good link to an explanation of these WX abbrevs?
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#40
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 13:29
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#41
by
rdale
on 08 Jun, 2007 14:21
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http://www.met.tamu.edu/class/METAR/quick-metar.htmlI'm not exactly sure why all those storms are forming off the coast and moving east... In any case it looks like the bulk of this will stay south of the pad, and if anything the increased cloudiness aloft should keep heating down and keep popup storms diminished.
Computer A: 49%. Computer B: 3%.
Good thing these things are bad - I'd be out of a job if they made it too easy ;>
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#42
by
ianw
on 08 Jun, 2007 14:27
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I found this site by searching for METAR decoder:
http://heras-gilsanz.com/manuel/METAR-Decoder.htmlLatest report:
KTTS 081355Z 01002KT 10SM FEW060 BKN130 OVC270 26/23 A3014 RMK SLP206 1SC /1/ 5AC 5CI /7/
decodes as:
Location: KTTS
Day of month: 08
Time: 13:55 UTC
Wind: True direction = 010 degrees, Speed: 2 knots
Visibility: 10 Statute Miles
Clouds: A few , at 6000 feet above aerodrome level
Clouds: Broken sky , at 13000 feet above aerodrome level
Clouds: Overcast sky , at 27000 feet above aerodrome level
Temperature: 26 degrees Celsius
Dewpoint: 23 degrees Celsius
QNH: 30.14 inHg
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#43
by
RedSky
on 08 Jun, 2007 14:33
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#44
by
rdale
on 08 Jun, 2007 15:07
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Everything that would be approaching KSC is dying as it attempts - lightning staying well offshore and not getting any closer.
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#45
by
DaveS
on 08 Jun, 2007 16:23
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First "weather board" check:
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#46
by
ras391
on 08 Jun, 2007 16:35
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I believe this was expected. The winds should push the clouds inland later in the day.
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#47
by
Felix
on 08 Jun, 2007 16:46
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#48
by
Felix
on 08 Jun, 2007 17:27
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#49
by
rdale
on 08 Jun, 2007 17:43
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A little shower is ready to move over KSC shortly, steady rain and severe weather all staying to the south for now and no signs of that changing. I am a little concerned about the cloud layers coming up from the east but still expect the worst to stay south of Melbourne...
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#50
by
Felix
on 08 Jun, 2007 17:59
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#51
by
Felix
on 08 Jun, 2007 18:40
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#52
by
rdale
on 08 Jun, 2007 20:11
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No concerns from my side... Everything lining up quite nicely inland with winds carrying all clouds to the west / southwest as well. Still can't rule out a shower popping up but clearly odds remain against it.
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#53
by
DaveS
on 08 Jun, 2007 21:13
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2112 UTC check of the "weather board":
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#54
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 21:40
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(Edit: my bad, wrong thread -- mods, feel free to delete this.)
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#55
by
DaveS
on 08 Jun, 2007 22:14
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Weather forecast is down to 5% chance of weather prohibiting launch.
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#56
by
Svetoslav
on 08 Jun, 2007 22:17
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What about the "emergency landing places"? Are there any concerns there?
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#57
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 22:27
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Svetoslav - 8/6/2007 6:17 PM
What about the "emergency landing places"? Are there any concerns there?
Latest SMG forecast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
FMI ... VIS
Still some chance of fog at Istres (FMI), but they only need good weather at one TAL site and Zaragoza (ZZA) seems to be acceptable.
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#58
by
rdale
on 08 Jun, 2007 22:52
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No problems at Zaragosa - mostly sunny, light breeze, no visibility restrictions as of 630pm EDT.
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#59
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 22:54
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You have a decent radar image for Zaragoza, Rob? I'm assuming they have showers within 30 nmi of the runway...
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#60
by
rdale
on 08 Jun, 2007 22:59
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#61
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 23:03
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I found something and all I see is maybe one pixel on the radar in the area (can't decipher the scale)...I assume the MCC is discussing this with the weather pilot.
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#62
by
Chris Bergin
on 08 Jun, 2007 23:03
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One TAL went green.
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#63
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 23:05
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According to KSC PAO, the chance for fog at FMI was removed from the forecast.
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#64
by
rdale
on 08 Jun, 2007 23:10
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LFMI 082000Z 082106 VRB03KT CAVOK PROB30 TEMPO 0006 4000 BR=
That's the forecast issed at 4pm EDT - Winds 3 knots, ceiling and visibility okay, briefly between 8pm - 2am EDT vis down to 2.5 miles in fog.
Ob at 7pm EDT: METAR LFMI 082300Z 14003KT CAVOK 21/18 Q1017 NOSIG
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#65
by
Norm Hartnett
on 08 Jun, 2007 23:19
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To confirm
The rain in Spain is mainly on the plain
but the fog in France is in abey-ance?
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#66
by
psloss
on 08 Jun, 2007 23:20
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Norm Hartnett - 8/6/2007 7:19 PM
To confirm
The rain in Spain is mainly on the plain
but the fog in France is in abey-ance?
Oui.
