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STS-117: Launch Weather Forecast
by
rdale
on 01 Jun, 2007 13:05
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After some welcome rains this weekend it looks like a more typical summertime pattern sets up (for a change) over Florida... High pressure centered over the western Atlantic Ocean will keep any major systems from coming across the state. The center of that high should be close enough to keep the normal afternoon storms on the quiet side, and given the lack of rain lately that's a safe bet for now.
General outlook: High of 89, Low of 73, 25% chance of an afternoon or early evening storm.
As time passes the chance for daytime storms increases if they don't get off on the first opportunity - but still nothing major.
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#1
by
jacqmans
on 01 Jun, 2007 17:13
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#2
by
Andrewwski
on 02 Jun, 2007 00:38
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No impact from TS Barry then? I know it will be long passed before then, but would a potential change in path affect any pre-launch activities earlier in the week?
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#3
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 02 Jun, 2007 01:54
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There shouldn't be any impact. As of right now the storm is expected to bring needed rain to the area and some light winds around 20mph.
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#4
by
MySDCUserID
on 02 Jun, 2007 02:46
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It's just raining here. Though, I'm sure the media will milk it. This storm will be a good thing because it will lower the wild fire threat.
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#5
by
rdale
on 02 Jun, 2007 03:40
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No impact from Barry. 30 years ago it wouldn't even have been named, and just five yeras ago neither would Andrea, but it sounds so much better for the record-keeping and climate-changing to have 2 by the first day of the season.
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#6
by
Bubbinski
on 02 Jun, 2007 12:20
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So that's why the first tropical storm of the season was named Barry....they're now naming subtropical depressions??? What's next, naming tropical waves? Monsoon storms? Is this why we're getting so many named storms lately? I just have to shake my head.
I've been watching this closely since I fly out to FL next Wednesday....want everything to stay on track for the launch! That's good to know Barry won't impact anything.
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#7
by
rdale
on 03 Jun, 2007 00:41
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No change in my forecast... Upper-80's with a less than normal chance of afternoon storms.
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#8
by
MKremer
on 03 Jun, 2007 01:13
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rdale - 2/6/2007 7:41 PM
No change in my forecast... Upper-80's with a less than normal chance of afternoon storms.
Other than some kind of surprisingly sudden tropical flareup nearby, I can't imagine any showstoppers other than upper-level wind speed conditions.
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#9
by
rdale
on 03 Jun, 2007 21:00
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NWS forecast from this afternoon calls for a 20% chance of storms on Friday, again below normal for this time of year... I might not go that low, but still nothing to get overly concerned about.
Max wind through 100,000ft forecast to be about 30mph.
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#10
by
sts1canada
on 03 Jun, 2007 23:57
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Here is the current NWS forecast for the KSC area, now I know it still five days out from June 8 and I don't need to be reminded that things can change, we all know that weather forecast models can change their predicts and trends and the forecast can change but right now the launch weather conditions look pretty good for Friday afternoon (tanking) -evening (launch), 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. West wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?map.x=215&map.y=99&site=mlbRichard
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#11
by
sts1canada
on 04 Jun, 2007 00:25
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Looking at the extended part of the forecast discussion by the mets at the NWS Melbourne office, the sea breeze thunderstorms are expected to flare up later in the week along the coast ( a normal occurrence this time of year), but the upper level steering flow will be coming more from a northerly direction and steer these storms more inland and away from the coast, here is the excerpt of the forecast discussion to support this (sorry for the caps, this is how this info is posted): "DAILY SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR LATER THIS WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (gusty winds between high and low pressure). MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE MID 90S INLAND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE LIMITED TO 700MB (700mb height is around 10,500 feet) AND BELOW THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BACK TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. STEERING FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THEN EAST BY SUNDAY WILL TEND TO DRIVE STORMS MORE TO THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY."
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10Richard
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#12
by
jacqmans
on 04 Jun, 2007 14:38
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#13
by
rdale
on 04 Jun, 2007 15:23
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As you can see NWS and DoD forecasters are bringing their storm chances up to what my numbers were. Now I'm getting a wee-bit more concerned now for lightning in the area - the high pressure system is now forecast to be a little farther out into the Atlantic, which means the winds to push the sea-breeze storms inland will be weaker. Odds still better than normal for this time of the year in Florida, but I'm going with a 40% chance of storms now...
The last remaining good piece of info is that the winds through the upper-levels are out of the north and northeast so anvils will move inland and not be an influence.
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#14
by
rdale
on 04 Jun, 2007 23:04
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Won't have a chance to do any analysis tonight - but the latest computer model run now has a 50% chance of storms on Friday...
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#15
by
psloss
on 05 Jun, 2007 12:18
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#16
by
rdale
on 06 Jun, 2007 03:31
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The joy of computers ;>
Chances of storms Wed/Thu/Fri from one computer:
60% / 59% / 48%
The other computer:
42% / 25% / 5%
Notice anything different? I think the 5 is too low but the 48 way too high still.
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#17
by
Avron
on 06 Jun, 2007 03:41
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rdale - 5/6/2007 11:31 PM
The joy of computers ;>
Chances of storms Wed/Thu/Fri from one computer:
60% / 59% / 48%
The other computer:
42% / 25% / 5%
Notice anything different? I think the 5 is too low but the 48 way too high still.
Not sure the ave for friday of 26% is any good.. but I'll take it over the 30% official
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#18
by
psloss
on 06 Jun, 2007 11:13
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rdale - 5/6/2007 11:31 PM
The joy of computers ;>
What are the chances those models will converge as we get closer to Friday?
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#19
by
psloss
on 06 Jun, 2007 11:30
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Updated forecast from the 45th Weather Squadron is available (same link as above)...Friday's forecast is largely the same, but the probably of weather prohibiting launch during the windows on Saturday and Sunday is up to 40%.
