rpspeck - 29/5/2007 5:34 PMUltralight: The Bottom Line. Ultralight spaceflight is not intended as a stunt. Its purpose is to get people into space who otherwise couldn’t afford to go. In this it is identical to SCUBA diving for people who can’t afford to buy or rent a submarine. It will push the price of human ORBITAL access below $600,000 short term, falling to $200,000 mid term. Prices for Moon landings must be 20 times higher; $12 Million short term, falling to $4 Million midterm. These prices assume no new technology (or “unobtainium”), just good engineering. They also do not assume “reusable spacecraft”, since no one has demonstrated the ability to make an orbital system with even maintenance costs per flight competitive with “throwaway rockets”. The prices for lunar landing will drop further when partial hardware reusability is demonstrated. The short term prices assume that SpaceX, or others will be able to match the Orbital cost delivered by the Russian Dnepr: $1500 per pound. On top of this it assumes that the hypersonic tested MOOSE concept will be completed and updated to produce a 400 pound reentry vehicle including its astronaut. When you consider the proven adequacy of Balsa Wood for a heat shield (4 pounds plus safety factor), and advanced materials at a fraction of this weight, even this mass looks high. I will detail the ease of producing a “fail safe” pressure suit” in this forum soon. Life support for 48 hours, either bracketing a space station visit or leading to early return from orbit, adds less than 10 pounds to the payload. The $200,000 ORBITAL price assumes that production prices for aerospace hardware can be reached with small, expendable rockets. A few years ago, the production Cessna 172 aircraft had a list price of $160,000. This reliable unit has a 1600 pound dry weight, giving $100 per pound of certified aerospace hardware: a mix of motor, controls, instruments and fabricated aluminum, assembled, tested and insured (with product liability insurance being a large cost). Air transport aircraft (737, 747), built in smaller quantity, run roughly twice this cost per pound, with their very sophisticated jet engines and multiple redundant electronic systems. Keep in mind that good rocket motors often have no moving parts (unlike aircraft engines). Also keep in mind that the safest and most successful launch vehicle flying today was developed - with its design frozen – in 1966. The control system, a daunting challenge at that date, is a trivial computer task today. Knowing both aircraft and rocket needs well, I believe the lower, aircraft “cost per pound” number is appropriate for what is primarily a flying fuel tank: the lightweight rocket. Putting 400 pounds (astronaut, life support, pressure suit and full reentry and landing equipment) into orbit with a multistage rocket using reasonable, hydrocarbon fuel requires a “mass ratio” somewhat less than 40. Nearly 16,000 pounds, mostly fuel, must leave the launch pad. With good construction (composite in our designs) the dry mass of this assembly will be less than 10% of this total, or less than 1600 pounds. To put one human into orbit with an expendable rocket, you are “throwing away” a Cessna 172. I have rounded this total flight cost up from $160,000 to $200,000, which will more than cover the special equipment. Note that the 16,000 pound takeoff mass includes 14,400 pounds of fuel – actually about 4080 pounds (680 gallons) of gasoline or equivalent, and 10,320 pounds of low cost liquid Oxygen. I have noted that this is the gasoline used by a typical family SUV every year. Even with today’s prices, the fuel will cost only $2400, but no one knows how to approach this as a launch cost. It may seem wasteful to throw away a launch vehicle, but anyone who has lived more than a few decades knows that “reusable” cars and trucks are regularly “used up” and scrapped. Before the Alcan Highway was paved, it was typical to buy a new RV, take a long vacation in Alaska, then sell the RV after returning home. The RV, while it was still fairly new, was in reality nearly “used up” by hammering on rough roads. More to the point for space pioneers and adventurers, few if any “Covered Wagons” used on the Oregon Trail ever completed a second trip! The modest Orbital and Lunar prices I am quoting do not require that you wait for technological advances (and monstrous financial investments) comparable to the development of the western railroads. They assume that you are willing to pass SCUBA like equipment training, and fly today on an affordable, lightweight expendable rocket.
tnphysics - 8/9/2007 10:57 PMQuoterpspeck - 29/5/2007 5:34 PMUltralight: The Bottom Line. ... How will you get any samples back?
rpspeck - 29/5/2007 5:34 PMUltralight: The Bottom Line. ...
A_M_Swallow - 9/9/2007 7:43 PMSmall amounts of delta_v between a spacestation and incoming person or capsule can be handled by catching the person in a net and using the mass of the spacestation to slow them. You may need to winch out the net to keep the acceleration down.SpaceX are currently charging $8.5 million for a Falcon 1. This can lift 723 kg (1590 lb) to 200 km circular.Using a figure of 400 lb per person + equipment the rocket can lift 1590 / 400 = 3.975 peopleTaking that as 3 people $8.5 million / 3 = $2.83 million per personOn a 4 times material cost the trip ticket price is $2.83M * 4 = $11.3 millionWith careful planning you may be able to reduce the 400% overhead charge.Note $8.5M seems low for a firm employing 500 people and launching 10 times a year. $40M is a more likely price, depending on their overheads.
rpspeck - 11/9/2007 8:49 PMA four person "interface structure" to fit atop the Falcon 1 might cost more than a four place Cessna, but isn't going to cost 10 times a much ($1.5 Million). Adding that to the SpaceX full service price gives $2.5 to $3.3 Million per person orbital travel cost. Add a 10% travel agent's commission if you can't get a SpaceX quantity discount. I don't think SpaceX is paying their employees $800,000/yr each, even when overhead is included. But even if their Falcon 9 jumps to that price (with 10 per year - and they are building engines and tanks for those vehicles with that staffing) I will be a customer. I need the bigger rocket for "affordable" interplanetary expeditions.
tnphysics - 14/9/2007 9:14 PMWhat kind of LV would be needed to land 6 men on Mars, using your technology?
rpspeck - 18/9/2007 10:11 AMI have been a lot more focused on getting travelers BACK from the surface of Mars than in landing.
rpspeck - 20/9/2007 4:58 PMMicro-Space will not be flying in the Lunar Lander competition this year. It became obvious earlier that it would be impossible to get the required FAA experimental Launch permit by the required time. We are actively working on all three Lunar Lander vehicles: the lightweight 90 sec version, the 180 second version with a much larger tank cluster, and the split tank cluster configuration which can transport a Rover to the lunar surface or - with high grade peroxide and the higher ISP in vacuum - can actually carry a human traveler. Our deep space focus actually started with our original X Prize work. At that time we were perfecting the propulsion modules we continue to use, but recognized that there were important LIFE SUPPORT issues for an ultralight vehicle, both in normal flight and in emergency modes. (Many of these issues have never been successfully addressed with the Space Shuttle). Since this work tapped into research in Pulmonary Physiology I did years ago, it was not a stretch to adapt and apply the required technology. We have succeeded in producing several, fail safe, life support backpacks. These, combined with modern high altitude technology, also provide far lighter and safer "pressure suits" than NASA standards. Beyond this, as a successful small business, we know the importance of choosing "right sized" goals. In this arena, a goal with high public interest is easier to fund. The final stage of an interplanetary spacecraft has more than 100 times less mass that its initial launch vehicle. Many are no bigger or heavier than a homebuilt airplane. Launch to orbit is a commodity service and, for a very lightweight human mission, is affordable. We added up all these factors and chose ultralight human Mars expeditions as an achievable goal. Bear in mind that the terrestrial Lunar Lander simulation has exactly zero follow on potential. The Google Lunar X Prize adds real follow on potential, as do the human Moon and Mars adaptations. As a business strategy it is important to keep these in mind and not pursue technology short term which will preclude such uses.