Author Topic: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)  (Read 265145 times)

Offline JesseD

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RE: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1000 on: 06/15/2007 07:44 pm »
wow!  
Quote
Stage 2 LOX Quick Disconnect (QD) Failed to Disconnect at Liftoff.  
This resulted in the LOX QD panel (with QD) and ~2” of LOX fill line separating from vehicle.
translation:  it ripped the whole dang panel off the rocket!

lol!  http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/8943/oops2sp1.jpg in reverse!

Offline meiza

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1001 on: 06/15/2007 10:35 pm »
Quote
kevin-rf - 15/6/2007  7:51 PM

Quote
SpacemanSpiff - 15/6/2007  2:27 PM

Demo Flight 2 DARPA review report is posted. See website.

I assume you mean on the http://www.spacex.com site refering to http://spacex.com/F1-DemoFlight2-Flight-Review.pdf

:)

Interesting, I wonder how serious some of those eight reported anomalies are. Having the quick disconnects fail and the mix wrong sounds a little scary to me.

Sounds like they learned quite a bit on this launch.

Man! Extremely fascinating!
8 fowls.
One possible chain of events:
Wrong mixture ratio table loaded -> low performance -> staging at low alt -> aero loads at staging -> bad separation -> slosh.

Elon must be glad he didn't go to Falcon 9 directly.

Learn from this and do it better next time!

"Falcon 1 did not use slosh baffles in the second stage tanks, as simulations done prior to flight indicated
the slosh instability was a low risk." <- success oriented planning!

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1002 on: 06/16/2007 03:05 am »
"Merlin shutdown will also be initiated at a lower acceleration."

Insurance they won't bump Stage 2 again. Does this mean they run Stage 1 dry? Or is Merlin 1C throttle-able?

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1003 on: 06/17/2007 02:00 am »
Quote
nobodyofconsequence - 15/6/2007  11:05 PM

"Merlin shutdown will also be initiated at a lower acceleration."

Insurance they won't bump Stage 2 again. Does this mean they run Stage 1 dry? Or is Merlin 1C throttle-able?

I think they are trying to counter act the off axis rotational inertia the merlin turbine imparts on the stage at shutdown by having it spinning at a lowwer speed when shutdown occurs. Sounds to me like the turbine spins down very quickly.  

If you look at http://spacex.com/00Graphics/assets/img/Merlin-1.jpg the turbine is very offset from the center line.

Edit : It is worth noting the Elon himself said throttling down is rough on the engine and will reduce its life.
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Offline stockman

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1004 on: 06/18/2007 12:21 am »
I have to admit that I am surprised there is not more chatter on here now that we have gotten an update on this launch...We had weeks of speculation and now that we have some facts there are very few posts.

My only question is will they release or post the full (or at least longer) video???  I love the 5 mintues of ride to orbit just before they cut off but I would love to see what the entire sequence looked like. Please Elon?????  :)

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Offline JesseD

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Problem summary, my take on the fixes
« Reply #1005 on: 06/18/2007 02:04 am »
-- Stage 2 LOX Quick Disconnect (QD) Failed to Disconnect at Liftoff
Appears to be a design problem (they're working with the QD vendor "to address the design").  Good valve redundancy prevented it from being a problem.  Should be a plug 'n' play fix; just replace the connectors, shouldn't affect any other systems.

-- Stage 1 LOX, Fuel, and Electrical QD’s Poor Disconnect at Liftoff
More of the same.  should be a -- well, not trivial, but a straightforward solution.

-- Stage 1 Trajectory Performance
The computer was given a wrong propellant utilization file, which messed up the fuel mixture, which lowered thrust, which caused the first stage trajectory to degrade.  A simple fix; just copy the right file.

Separately, the 1st stage LOX tank ullage pressure dropped below nominal near the end of the burn, causing the LOX pump to cavitate (benignly). This issue has been addressed by adjusting tank pressure set-points and regulation.  I'm guessing they had their pressure margins set too narrow; again, it should be a pretty simple software tweak.

-- Stage 2 Propellant Utilization (PU)
Apparently the Kestrel ran lean.  or something.  My guess is that the spin cycle caused propellant to centrifuge away from the bottom of the tank, which caused the fuel pressure at the engine intake to be less than expected.  which caused the engine to run lean.  Hopefully adding the baffles will fix this.

-- Stage Separation Re-contact
The problem wasn't the interstage, it was the rotational moment of the whole stack.  This, I figure, was caused by a number of factors and highly influenced by the Stage 1 Trajectory Performance problem.  Being at a lower altitude than expected caused increased aerodynamic forces, which contributed to the rotation; I also heard that the shutdown transient of the Stage 1 engine was different than they had simulated.  Now they have that data, they plan to be able to fix it by throttling down the Falcon before MECO.  Fixing the trajectory problem (simple computer fix) should also fix the aero force problem, and this problem should go away.  

Quote
It is worth noting the Elon himself said throttling down is rough on the engine and will reduce its life.
It's also worth noting that if they can't recover the first stage, that point is moot!!

The Kestral engine bell is a tough little guy, though; it didn't take any damage even from a hit that slewed the whole second stage around!

-- Marmon Clamp Joint Separation Anomaly at Fairing Jettison
who knows what happened?  SpaceX doesn't. :)

-- Upper Stage Control Anomaly
Roll was induced by the hard slew maneuver caused by the fairing bang, which in turn was caused by the aerodynamic forces caused by the lower S1 performance, which finally was caused by loading the wrong config.sys file to the  computer.  OW!  that's gotta hurt!
It's interesting that SpaceX didn't build conservatively and include S2 baffles.  they saw that the probability of slosh instability was low, and "hoped for the best".  I'm sure it saved a week or two of fab time and a couple dozen pounds, but it cost them a $7,000,000 orbital success. (note: I'm NOT GETTING INTO whether the flight was a "success", i'm just saying it didn't reach orbit because of the roll. lol!)


-- 1st Stage Location and Recovery
SpaceX knew the GPS wasn't functioning when they gave the green light for launch; it wasn't a critical thing.  The range didn't calculate the estimated landing position right and the recovery ship was 20 miles off.  They're beefing up the GPS.


All in all, I'd say that most of these problems are either simple or straightforward to fix.  I'd guess that the only ones that will require significant effort is adding baffles to the S2 tank and debugging all the software changes. :)

It's got to just KILL Elon that if they had loaded the correct engine config file, the whole flight may have been picture perfect!!!

- Jesse

Offline stockman

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1006 on: 06/18/2007 02:13 am »
Given these identified problems and my impression being that they are all simple fixes for the most part, can we count on the next falcon I launch to come in Q3 as their web site indicates? Any rumours or insiders out there that can confirm? That would put a launch sometime between July and September.
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Offline Chris-A

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1007 on: 06/18/2007 02:26 am »
I wounder if Elon is busy most the time? He does have a fairly large biz jet and does travel a lot (does he fly it?) but it has been noted he is/was under stress from the launch or is this the new Elon when it comes to the updates? :frown:
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Offline pippin

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RE: Problem summary, my take on the fixes
« Reply #1008 on: 06/18/2007 08:34 am »
Not sure, if it's that easy...

Quote
JesseD - 18/6/2007  4:04 AM

-- Stage 1 Trajectory Performance
The computer was given a wrong propellant utilization file, which messed up the fuel mixture, which lowered thrust, which caused the first stage trajectory to degrade.  A simple fix; just copy the right file.

Read carefully. They did NOT state, that they know what the correct file looks like. I would suspect they figured out that it was wrong and now have to go back to testing to find a better configuration.

Quote
-- Stage Separation Re-contact
The problem wasn't the interstage, it was the rotational moment of the whole stack.  This, I figure, was caused by a number of factors and highly influenced by the Stage 1 Trajectory Performance problem.  Being at a lower altitude than expected caused increased aerodynamic forces, which contributed to the rotation; I also heard that the shutdown transient of the Stage 1 engine was different than they had simulated.  Now they have that data, they plan to be able to fix it by throttling down the Falcon before MECO.  Fixing the trajectory problem (simple computer fix) should also fix the aero force problem, and this problem should go away.  

It's got to just KILL Elon that if they had loaded the correct engine config file, the whole flight may have been picture perfect!!!

- Jesse

The aero loads are ONE problem. Fix: see above.
The turbine issue may not be that easy to solve. I suspect them to shut down the engine rough for a reason. Throttling is not that simple (SpaceX themselves are claiming cavity problems in this post) and I don't think they have any engine-off pitch/yaw control. Maybe they can vent leftover LOX through the engibne or something like that to compensate for the momentum but I believe they will spend one or two nights fixing that one...

I think they are on a good learning curve and they have achieved quite something but all the "no problems, easy to fix" rhetoric is annoying. Especially, since if it were true it would really mean their quality management is really lousy letting them get away with so many simple problems, and we don't wanna suspect that, don't we?

Offline JesseD

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RE: Problem summary, my take on the fixes
« Reply #1009 on: 06/18/2007 02:03 pm »
Quote
pippin - 18/6/2007  4:34 AM

Not sure, if it's that easy...

Quote
JesseD - 18/6/2007  4:04 AM

-- Stage 1 Trajectory Performance
The computer was given a wrong propellant utilization file, which messed up the fuel mixture, which lowered thrust, which caused the first stage trajectory to degrade.  A simple fix; just copy the right file.

Read carefully. They did NOT state, that they know what the correct file looks like. I would suspect they figured out that it was wrong and now have to go back to testing to find a better configuration.
No, they didn't state that they know what the correct file looks like.  but they said they have "adjusted [our] configuration management system to ensure that this will not recur."  They don't need to recalculate, it wasn't a data error.  it was a "wrong file" error that could have been prevented with proper configuration management.  

Quote

Quote
-- Stage Separation Re-contact
The problem wasn't the interstage, it was the rotational moment of the whole stack.  This, I figure, was caused by a number of factors and highly influenced by the Stage 1 Trajectory Performance problem.  Being at a lower altitude than expected caused increased aerodynamic forces, which contributed to the rotation; I also heard that the shutdown transient of the Stage 1 engine was different than they had simulated.  Now they have that data, they plan to be able to fix it by throttling down the Falcon before MECO.  Fixing the trajectory problem (simple computer fix) should also fix the aero force problem, and this problem should go away.  

It's got to just KILL Elon that if they had loaded the correct engine config file, the whole flight may have been picture perfect!!!

- Jesse

The aero loads are ONE problem. Fix: see above.
The turbine issue may not be that easy to solve. I suspect them to shut down the engine rough for a reason. Throttling is not that simple (SpaceX themselves are claiming cavity problems in this post) and I don't think they have any engine-off pitch/yaw control. Maybe they can vent leftover LOX through the engibne or something like that to compensate for the momentum but I believe they will spend one or two nights fixing that one...
I find it simply incredible (i.e., UN-credible) that SpaceX could have discounted the inertia of the turbine in their calculations, and nowhere does SpaceX state that it was the issue.  
However, SpaceX did say that "a majority" of the rotation was caused by aerodynamic forces, and another fraction being due to the "high angle of attack" and the engine not pointing straight through the COM.  I'm sure you're right and they will spend a good bit of time to correct their shutdown transient calculations.  

By the "picture perfect" comment I made, I meant that eliminating the "majority of the rotation" caused by the config file may have prevented the interstage contact, which may have eliminated the 2nd stage slew maneuver, which may have prevented the slosh from overpowering the roll control system and allowed the rocket to reach its target destination.  Although I'm sure that seeing their "shutdown transient" 5X what they calculated would have sparked some changes even if the rocket had hit orbit.

Quote
I think they are on a good learning curve and they have achieved quite something but all the "no problems, easy to fix" rhetoric is annoying. Especially, since if it were true it would really mean their quality management is really lousy letting them get away with so many simple problems, and we don't wanna suspect that, don't we?

Well, I don't want to be annoying! In my opinion, it is a GOOD THING that all of these little things happened as they did.  it's clear that SpaceX has done a  lot of work, but it's also clear that when you put together a whole new rocket from scratch as fast as they did and run the whole operation with as few people as they do, you're not going to be able to forsee as many possible problems as NASA.  

As I noted before, SpaceX "cut corners" on not adding baffles to the S2 tank.  What that tells me is that they didn't consider all the possible problem coupling issues.  i.e., degraded S1 performance+higher rotation+course correction burn+roll+centrifuge=failure to reach orbit.  They ASSUMED that the flight would be as simulated, rather than planning for any eventuality.  This is where the old.space companies shine, planning for unforseen circumstances and working around them. example is how NASA took medical staplers along on the Shuttle; not just one, but SEVERAL.  so that when they needed blanket repairs, they had not just one clip of staples, but a bunch, and a backup stapler too.  Hopefully SpaceX will learn from these issues and continue to grow toward a robust and successful flight vehicle.

I am rooting for SpaceX and hope they learn from these issues.  I'm not a "certified aeronautics engineer" or anything, but I do recognize that rocket science isn't, well, easy.

Online jabe

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RE: Problem summary, my take on the fixes
« Reply #1010 on: 06/18/2007 02:18 pm »
Quote
JesseD - 18/6/2007  4:04 AM

-- Stage 1 Trajectory Performance
The computer was given a wrong propellant utilization file, which messed up the fuel mixture, which lowered thrust, which caused the first stage trajectory to degrade.  A simple fix; just copy the right file.
actual quote from the pdf..

Quote
This anomaly is two-fold. First, an incorrect propellant utilization file was loaded into the engine computer. This error caused the engine mixture ratio to be lean on lift-off and rich at altitude. Therefore, thrust was slightly lower than intended early in the flight, resulting in increased gravity losses and causing the first stage trajectory to be slightly lower and slower than predicted. SpaceX has adjusted its configuration management system to ensure that this will not recur.
I was confused by this comment as well. Was it that they put the wrong file in or does it imply that they were "wrong" on parameters needed for the flight? (not sure if I worded that right!)  Wouldn't the file be different again then for the merlin-1C? Or does the "management system" take that into account..(I have NO idea what the "management system is or does :) )

I thought the staging problem would be discussed more but seems to a "simple" fix.  Lets hope so..lets fast forward to the november launch :)
cheers
jb

Offline pippin

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RE: Problem summary, my take on the fixes
« Reply #1011 on: 06/18/2007 03:03 pm »
Quote
JesseD - 18/6/2007  4:03 PM
Well, I don't want to be annoying! In my opinion, it is a GOOD THING that all of these little things happened as they did.  it's clear that SpaceX has done a  lot of work, but it's also clear that when you put together a whole new rocket from scratch as fast as they did and run the whole operation with as few people as they do, you're not going to be able to forsee as many possible problems as NASA.  

...

This is where the old.space companies shine, planning for unforseen circumstances and working around them.

Completely agree. What I don't like is their permanent "it's all so easy" rhetoric, which leaves the feeling they don't know what they are dealing with. Wich I believe is not the case (they know). If you make so many mistakes that can be "easily" corrected, then what about the severe ones? How do you ever want to be reliable if you don't even get the easy things right?

BTW, as of your statement earlier:
"I also heard that the shutdown transient of the Stage 1 engine was different than they had simulated. Now they have that data, they plan to be able to fix it by throttling down the Falcon before MECO" - I was referring to that regarding the throttling. They say it's part of the problem (supposedly the off-axis turbine rotation momentum being transferred to the stage) and they claim to stop this through throttling while in the same paper stating they do already have cavity problems with the current shutdown process which sounds like it will be not that easy to throttle down the engine before shutdown.

Regarding "old.space"... What was it with Ariane 5... Simulation is always prone to unforeseen error if you are simulating a new systems since simulation scenario results are never statistically valid (too many variables, kills validity levels). Works fine if you know your system and have "real" test data. Woks bad on assumptions.

Regarding jb's post: That was what I was stumbling upon: They claim it's a configuration management error, but with the second comment to me it sounds like they had the wrong parameters in the file.

Offline Cretan126

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RE: Problem summary, my take on the fixes
« Reply #1012 on: 06/18/2007 04:39 pm »

Pippin:  I agree with your agreement - and your critique.  Although a start up needs to be somewhat brash and appear confident to sell themselves, the reptetitive restatements that "ok, NOW we have it all figured out..."  get extremely tiring and diminish their credibility. 

 As for "old.space", I'll also toss in the example of Delta III.  They made a major error and forgot to correctly model the rotation modes of the vehicle.  This wasn't a problem before with Delta II because the strap ons didn't have any TVC and therefore didn't impart any torque to that mode.  However, Delta III used active control of strap ons for roll control, exiciting that mode and leading to failure.  Even with all of the experience and heritage at Boeing, this seemingly obvious issue got missed. 

 And as a piece of trivia - but not implying any connection - among the entries on the resume of Jim Maser, recently departed President/COO of SpaceX (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=5574&start=1), is his stint as Chief Engineer on Delta III.


Offline Danderman

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1013 on: 06/18/2007 05:48 pm »
Perhaps I dreamt this, but didn't Jim Maser leave SpaceX?

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RE: Problem summary, my take on the fixes
« Reply #1014 on: 06/18/2007 07:28 pm »

Quote
JesseD - 18/6/2007  9:03 AM  ... This is where the old.space companies shine, planning for unforseen circumstances and working around them. ...

Strongly disagree.

Yes old.space shines, but for different reasons. The idea was to have any kind of RELIABLE space launch services, at ANY cost profile. This is NOT a bad thing ever.

With new.space, the idea is how much can you get away with at cutting the corners, because too much cost gets carried along and you lose your cost advantage over old.space (if there is one). The game is to intentionally cut corners - lots of them!

So they do a "good enough" try, and refine through multiple tries, sometimes getting it wrong.

In the end they may not get enough this way, and the cost advantage may be too marginal to ever justify the loss on the blown launches. But the only way they can shed cost in the structure is to remove too much, find what's absolutely essential, and put back whats minimally needed.

Leaving out the baffles was simply manufacturing cost reduction and weight reduction. Turns out it was too risky, as was non-regen Merlin. They are trying for a sustainable business advantage, not simply to be a "me too!"


Offline Zond

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1015 on: 06/23/2007 09:22 pm »
This SpaceX presentation has some interesting info.
For the next flight they are going to replace the Merlin 1A with a 1C and replace the Kestrel 1 engine with a Kestrel 2 engine.
Quote
Vehicle Development Path
-Demo flights
  Merlin 1A ablative engine
  Kestrel-1 upperstage engine
  Skin/stringer fairing
  ~700 pounds to orbit
-Next 3 flights
  De-tuned Merlin 1C Regen engine
  Kestrel-2 upperstage engine
  Skin/stringer fairing
  ~1200 pounds to orbit
-2009—Falcon 1E
  Full Merlin 1C performance
  Longer first stage
  ~1800 pounds to orbit
The first Falcon 9 has been delayed to the third quarter of 2008, but they are planning three Falcon 9 flights in the third quarter including the first COTS flight, which seems unrealistic.


Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1016 on: 06/24/2007 04:36 am »
Does anyone belive that they will launch 3 flights in Q3 2008, thats only 1 year away?  Since they had problems with the Falcon I, on flying the Falcon 9, do you think that they will only test the 1st stage on the 1st flight?

Offline braddock

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1017 on: 06/25/2007 01:12 am »
Quote
Zond - 23/6/2007  5:22 PM

This SpaceX presentation has some interesting info.
For the next flight they are going to replace the Merlin 1A with a 1C and replace the Kestrel 1 engine with a Kestrel 2 engine.

Very interesting presentation.
They must be getting good performance on the 1C if they are making a leap in payload specs from 700 to 1800 lbs to orbit.

Nice shot of the 1C firing on the test stand...

Offline simonbp

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1018 on: 06/25/2007 01:53 am »
It's also interesting on the last slide where they mention "[Dragon] Can easily accommodate instruments & communication equipment"; sounds like they're looking to make it into a reusable satellite bus. Is there a market for this?

Simon ;)

Offline nacnud

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX - Falcon I (Mk.II) NET March 20 (Attempt 2)
« Reply #1019 on: 06/25/2007 11:02 am »
Yes, see the Foton series of vehicles.

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