Author Topic: Excalibur Almaz  (Read 207242 times)

Offline Moe Grills

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #320 on: 11/16/2014 06:31 pm »
The Excalibur Almaz corporation didn't have a chance in  hell of putting this hardware in orbit without
a serious attempt at obtaining an inexpensive booster (and a launch site worthy of the name) to do the job.
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I have never heard/read of EA corporation approaching either SpaceX or the Russians or the Chinese or ANYBODY to obtain such a booster IMHO.
 
  It's just common sense. No booster, no hardware in orbit.
« Last Edit: 11/16/2014 06:33 pm by Moe Grills »

Offline Danderman

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #321 on: 11/16/2014 06:44 pm »
The Excalibur Almaz corporation didn't have a chance in  hell of putting this hardware in orbit without
a serious attempt at obtaining an inexpensive booster (and a launch site worthy of the name) to do the job.
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I have never heard/read of EA corporation approaching either SpaceX or the Russians or the Chinese or ANYBODY to obtain such a booster IMHO.
 
  It's just common sense. No booster, no hardware in orbit.

Actually, Art Dula sank some cash into SeaLaunch in the last few years.

Offline Moe Grills

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #322 on: 11/16/2014 06:59 pm »
The Excalibur Almaz corporation didn't have a chance in  hell of putting this hardware in orbit without
a serious attempt at obtaining an inexpensive booster (and a launch site worthy of the name) to do the job.
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I have never heard/read of EA corporation approaching either SpaceX or the Russians or the Chinese or ANYBODY to obtain such a booster IMHO.
 
  It's just common sense. No booster, no hardware in orbit.

Actually, Art Dula sank some cash into SeaLaunch in the last few years.


Thanks for putting me in the loop, but I can clearly see that Art Dula (mixing metaphors here) bet on the wrong horse and bit off more than he can chew.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #323 on: 11/16/2014 07:17 pm »
The legal question is not whether management made errors, but rather whether fraud was involved.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #324 on: 11/17/2014 08:25 pm »
It will be very interesting to hear Dula's response.  I hope there is a public response.  He might argue, as you say, that the agreement was unenforceable.  Or he might argue that the characterization in the suit is incorrect and that it does actually allow modification for flight.  Or he might argue that his team didn't read the fine print carefully enough and didn't notice.  Or he might not really have any excuse at all.

Or the guy filing the lawsuit might have just made it up.. or the journalist who wrote the article did.. or that contract did exist but EA never signed it and that's why it took so long for them to complete a simple auction sale.. or 50 million other possibilities. I doubt there will be a public response, as I doubt it will even go to court.


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Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #325 on: 11/17/2014 09:09 pm »
The Excalibur Almaz corporation didn't have a chance in  hell of putting this hardware in orbit without
a serious attempt at obtaining an inexpensive booster (and a launch site worthy of the name) to do the job.
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I have never heard/read of EA corporation approaching either SpaceX or the Russians or the Chinese or ANYBODY to obtain such a booster IMHO.
 
  It's just common sense. No booster, no hardware in orbit.

Was the hardware even worthwhile putting in orbit? They didn't even have the legal rights to modify the station modules into a less threatening state.

Their business case always seemed a little left-field.
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Offline Lars-J

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #326 on: 11/17/2014 10:25 pm »
The Excalibur Almaz corporation didn't have a chance in  hell of putting this hardware in orbit without
a serious attempt at obtaining an inexpensive booster (and a launch site worthy of the name) to do the job.
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I have never heard/read of EA corporation approaching either SpaceX or the Russians or the Chinese or ANYBODY to obtain such a booster IMHO.
 
  It's just common sense. No booster, no hardware in orbit.

Was the hardware even worthwhile putting in orbit? They didn't even have the legal rights to modify the station modules into a less threatening state.

Their business case always seemed a little left-field.

"Left field" is a very generous way to put it. "Scam" is another one I have used in the past to describe this, and it seems more apt than ever.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #327 on: 11/18/2014 04:17 pm »
I saw EA at the ISDC conference a few years ago. They showed some slides and had some really nice postcards with images of their spacecraft on them.

I don't know about them talking about flying the equipment that they owned. But I do remember them saying that they had also purchased all the designs, which would allow them to make new spacecraft. I also remember them using a term like "print to order" that they explained meant that they had all of the design documentation, including things like alloys and other materials used, so that a company could manufacture everything. I later looked up the term myself. I found it a bit hard to believe that totally detailed specifications and designs existed for an old vehicle. The term primarily seemed to apply to new products, the kinds of things you would design on a computer so you'd have detailed information files that could be easily shared.

EA never struck me as a scam, just some guys who had an unrealistic vision of what was possible. Not that different from lots of other people with unrealistic visions.*



*Everybody defines "unrealistic" in their own unique way.

Offline Prober

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #328 on: 11/18/2014 04:42 pm »
I saw EA at the ISDC conference a few years ago. They showed some slides and had some really nice postcards with images of their spacecraft on them.

I don't know about them talking about flying the equipment that they owned. But I do remember them saying that they had also purchased all the designs, which would allow them to make new spacecraft. I also remember them using a term like "print to order" that they explained meant that they had all of the design documentation, including things like alloys and other materials used, so that a company could manufacture everything. I later looked up the term myself. I found it a bit hard to believe that totally detailed specifications and designs existed for an old vehicle. The term primarily seemed to apply to new products, the kinds of things you would design on a computer so you'd have detailed information files that could be easily shared.

EA never struck me as a scam, just some guys who had an unrealistic vision of what was possible. Not that different from lots of other people with unrealistic visions.*



*Everybody defines "unrealistic" in their own unique way.

Did they say the documentation came from Russia?   This could be the crux of the matter, did EA reverse engineer what they needed?

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Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #329 on: 11/18/2014 05:38 pm »
EA never struck me as a scam, just some guys who had an unrealistic vision of what was possible. Not that different from lots of other people with unrealistic visions.*

I think it is possible for people to start out well intentioned with overly-ambitious goals that they really, really want to achieve and slowly go from there into scam and fraud territory.  This is not limited to spaceflight.  Some big ponzi schemes started out with people trying to make good returns for their investors fibbing a bit when the returns weren't so good, thinking they'd make up the difference next quarter, and getting in deeper and deeper every quarter.

Similar things happen with businesses that are long shots.  The people in charge can really believe, but think they need to present the facts in the best light to investors.  Making a good sales pitch slowly starts to involve leaving out some of the scarier risks, then leaving out more and more important details.  For example, one could imagine that the EA people believed that buying the spacecraft from Russia was essential to make them look real, and that once they had those spacecraft, it would be possible to raise much more money.  When they found that the spacecraft came with strings attached that would prevent their use in flight, they might have faced a choice: abandon their dream altogether, or go ahead with the purchase, use the publicity to get more investment, and actually build a space program.  And that plan might include neglecting to tell current and potential investors about the restrictions on modifying those craft.  So, while they would have convinced themselves it was for the long-term good of the program and everyone involved, they could have been misleading current and potential investors to a degree that constitutes fraud.

That's just one possibility, of course, but it's one that seems plausible to me.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #330 on: 11/18/2014 06:11 pm »
I saw EA at the ISDC conference a few years ago. They showed some slides and had some really nice postcards with

I don't know about them talking about flying the equipment that they owned. But I do remember them saying that they had also purchased all the designs, which would allow them to make new spacecraft. I also remember them using a term like "print to order" that they explained meant that they had all of the design documentation, including things like alloys and other materials used, so that a company could manufacture everything. I later looked up the term myself. I found it a bit hard to believe that totally detailed specifications and designs existed for an old vehicle. The term primarily seemed to apply to new products, the kinds of things you would design on a computer so you'd have detailed information files that could be easily shared.


I am sure that NPO Mash stored the design documentation for the Almaz capsule, including the equivalents of PDR and CDR.

I am not so such that such documentation could be transferred abroad, the Russians have their own version of ITAR.




Offline Lars-J

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #331 on: 11/18/2014 06:28 pm »
I saw EA at the ISDC conference a few years ago. They showed some slides and had some really nice postcards with

I don't know about them talking about flying the equipment that they owned. But I do remember them saying that they had also purchased all the designs, which would allow them to make new spacecraft. I also remember them using a term like "print to order" that they explained meant that they had all of the design documentation, including things like alloys and other materials used, so that a company could manufacture everything. I later looked up the term myself. I found it a bit hard to believe that totally detailed specifications and designs existed for an old vehicle. The term primarily seemed to apply to new products, the kinds of things you would design on a computer so you'd have detailed information files that could be easily shared.


I am sure that NPO Mash stored the design documentation for the Almaz capsule, including the equivalents of PDR and CDR.

I am not so such that such documentation could be transferred abroad, the Russians have their own version of ITAR.

According to this PDF (attached as well) - http://www.excaliburalmaz.com/pdf/EA02P062V3.pdf - They own four reusable capsules that they intended to fly.

From the PDF:
Quote
• EA program is based on modification of an existing and proven
reusable spacecraft
EA’s spacecraft development program begins with a spacecraft reusable asset
that is owned by EA

– Modification requirements have been studied for non-crewed and crewed flight
– Overall investment to date > $45 million US
• Physical assets currently owned by EA
4 Reusable Re-entry Vehicles
– 2 Space Station pressure vessels
– 1 Engineering Evaluation Unit mock-up of Reusable Reentry Vehicle

If it is correct that they had no right to fly these vehicles, that would be a fraudulent statement. Or?
« Last Edit: 11/18/2014 06:29 pm by Lars-J »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #332 on: 11/18/2014 11:55 pm »
EA never struck me as a scam, just some guys who had an unrealistic vision of what was possible. Not that different from lots of other people with unrealistic visions.*

I think it is possible for people to start out well intentioned with overly-ambitious goals that they really, really want to achieve and slowly go from there into scam and fraud territory.  This is not limited to spaceflight.  Some big ponzi schemes started out with people trying to make good returns for their investors fibbing a bit when the returns weren't so good, thinking they'd make up the difference next quarter, and getting in deeper and deeper every quarter.

I've never met Art Dula, but I've never heard anything about him to indicate that he is not legitimate.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #333 on: 11/19/2014 12:02 am »
I saw EA at the ISDC conference a few years ago. They showed some slides and had some really nice postcards with images of their spacecraft on them.

I don't know about them talking about flying the equipment that they owned. But I do remember them saying that they had also purchased all the designs, which would allow them to make new spacecraft. I also remember them using a term like "print to order" that they explained meant that they had all of the design documentation, including things like alloys and other materials used, so that a company could manufacture everything. I later looked up the term myself. I found it a bit hard to believe that totally detailed specifications and designs existed for an old vehicle. The term primarily seemed to apply to new products, the kinds of things you would design on a computer so you'd have detailed information files that could be easily shared.

EA never struck me as a scam, just some guys who had an unrealistic vision of what was possible. Not that different from lots of other people with unrealistic visions.*



*Everybody defines "unrealistic" in their own unique way.

Did they say the documentation came from Russia?   This could be the crux of the matter, did EA reverse engineer what they needed?



I really don't remember. I took some screenshots of their presentation. I'll attach them. It sounded to me like they had a deal with their Russian counterpart that would enable them to restart production easily. I didn't really buy that. I thought it was an optimistic interpretation. The term they were using, as I understood it after looking it up, has a very specific meaning and it usually means having a complete digital design file. What they probably had was files (blueprints, etc.) that had been converted to digital. It's a materials issue that crops up all the time in manufacturing--you could take a product and digital scan it and you might have a highly accurate 3D model of that object, but that model is not going to tell you if the object is made of plastic or steel. Only by starting with the original files do you get to the point where you can duplicate the object precisely.

I'll post my screenshots of their presentation.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #334 on: 11/19/2014 12:08 am »
Here are the photos I took of their slide presentation. I am sure that there is nothing here that they have not released on their website or elsewhere.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #335 on: 11/19/2014 12:51 am »
well, I can speak to the issue on the table.

The first thing to understand is that Russian aerospace firms don't throw design documents away.

NPO Mash was and is a design bureau with very limited manufacturing capability.  They generated documentation for the Almaz system  for Khrunichev to produce, and actually supervised production to ensure that manufactured articles were produced in accordance with design documentation. Eventually Khrunichev developed an inhouse design function to replace NPO Mash's role at the plant, and that design unit, Salyut, went on to become a systems developer.

NPO Mash had all of the required documentation, the question is whether the documentation (all in Russian) would have been transferred to EA, I have no knowledge whether that happened, but no knowledge that it didn't.



« Last Edit: 11/19/2014 12:56 am by Danderman »

Offline Danderman

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #336 on: 02/03/2015 08:13 pm »
Since this is a pretty dead thread these days, I thought I would pose the question of feasibility of launch of Almaz capsules on Stratolaunch.


Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #337 on: 02/03/2015 09:52 pm »
Since this is a pretty dead thread these days, I thought I would pose the question of feasibility of launch of Almaz capsules on Stratolaunch.

You might as well ask about the feasibility of launching a 1971 Ford Pinto on Sea Dragon.

Offline RanulfC

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #338 on: 02/04/2015 01:30 pm »
Since this is a pretty dead thread these days, I thought I would pose the question of feasibility of launch of Almaz capsules on Stratolaunch.

You might as well ask about the feasibility of launching a 1971 Ford Pinto on Sea Dragon.

So the answer in your opinion is then "yes" to both? :)

Seriously, it really depends on the actual performance of the StratoLaunch LV. "Assuming" the current figures are correct, (13,500lbs to LEO) then the VA capsule without LES is around 10,600lbs leaving a "margin" of a little under 3,000lbs for a "service module" for orbital operations.

The main question would be can Excalibur Almaz wait till StratoLaunch is operational, and would StratoLaunch have any actual interest in carrying and launching a manned spacecraft? My opinion is that EA can find and easier and more available ride than SL and I don't think SL seems interested in manned LVs at the moment anyway.

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Offline Danderman

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Re: Excalibur Almaz
« Reply #339 on: 02/06/2015 12:01 am »
Note that launching Almaz on Stratolaunch would still require use of Launch Escape System hardware, specifically capable of taking the capsule from ground zero to an altitude where the parachute could deploy. Probably even when the aircraft is in motion on the ground, or immediately after takeoff.



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