Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat - Kosmos-2600-2608 - Plesetsk, 43/4 - February 5, 2026 (18:59 UTC)

[B. Hendrickx]

A0526/26 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7537N02147E047
A) ENOB B) 2602021500 C) 2602122200
D) DAILY 1500-2200
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA W FEB26' ACTIVATED PSN
762200N 0215500E - 752400N 0244300E - 745100N 0214500E - 755000N
0185000E - (762200N 0215500E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES.
SIMILAR ACTIVITIES ARE ALSO PLANNED WITHIN THE UNALLOCATED
INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE AT PSN 705600N 0320500E - 701000N 0320500E -
700928N 0320152E - 701500N 0315000E - 703007N 0315000E - 703622N
0314318E - (705600N 0320500E)
F) GND G) UNL

These are the impact zones for the Soyuz-2 payload fairing and core stage that are typically used for launches into Sun-synchronous orbits. Note the unusually long window (7 hours).

I'm not sure if this is for the 16 Rassvet satellites, the launch of which is expected from Plesetsk next month. I understand the operational constellation will operate in orbits with inclinations of 60° and 88°. Also, according to the latest rumors, their launch has been pushed back until no earlier than late February.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=64057.0

If this does turn out to be the Rassvet launch, the threads can be merged.

[B. Hendrickx]

Another NOTAM related to this launch has appeared:

NAVAREA XII 63/26(18).
NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
  1500Z TO 2200Z DAILY 02 THRU 12 FEB
  IN AREA BOUND BY
  26-43.00N 130-22.00W, 30-40.00N 129-29.00W, 30-53.00N 130-46.00W, 26-57.00N 131-39.00W. 2. CANCEL THIS MSG 122300Z FEB 26.

This is for the impact of the third stage in the North Pacific, which means it is suborbital and the rocket will carry a Fregat upper stage to deliver the payload to orbit. This could point to this being the Rassvet launch, which requires a Fregat. The long daily launch window would also suggest this is a payload that does not require specific lighting conditions (making a reconnaissance satellite less likely).

The only problem is that the upcoming launch is aiming for an inclination of 96°-97°, whereas available information points to a lower inclination for Rassvet. Early last year, a report was published on the environmental impact of Rassvet launches from Plesetsk. This dealt with the use of a first stage drop zone in the Mezen region in the Arkhangelsk province. This drop zone (called Koida) was earlier used for Gonets-M launches into 82.6° orbits. However, it is possible that this is just one of several inclinations being planned for Rassvet launches from Plesetsk.

[B. Hendrickx]

This looks like a NOTAM for the deorbiting of the Fregat upper stage south of Australia:

NAVAREA X 007/26
CHART AUS 4074 - CAPE DARNLEY TO TASMANIA
1. SPACE DEBRIS DANGER AREA BOUNDED BY:
A. 53-24S 120-00E B. 38-36S 125-12E C. 38-54S 126-06E D. 53-42S 121-00E
2. HAZARDOUS WINDOW 0000 UTC TO 0600 UTC DAILY FROM 02 FEB TO 12 FEB 2026
NNNN   

Despite the presence of the Fregat, it now looks like the rocket will not be carrying the 16 Rassvet satellites. Last May, an official of Bureau 1440 (the company in charge of Rassvet) said that the first 16 satellites to be launched from Plesetsk would be part of the Rassvet-3 constellation.
https://telecomdaily.ru/news/2025/05/23/kosmicheskaya-gruppirovka-byuro-1440-sostavit-924-sputnika-uzhe-v-2035-godu

According to documents filed by Bureau 1440 with the International Telecommunications Union last April, satellites belonging to the Rassvet-3 constellation will operate in orbits with an inclination of 82.3°. The other two constellations (Rassvet-1 and 2) will have inclinations of 60° and 88° respectively. I understand those satellites will be launched from Vostochny and possibly Baikonur as well.

[russianhalo117]

This looks like a NOTAM for the deorbiting of the Fregat upper stage south of Australia:

NAVAREA X 007/26
CHART AUS 4074 - CAPE DARNLEY TO TASMANIA
1. SPACE DEBRIS DANGER AREA BOUNDED BY:
A. 53-24S 120-00E B. 38-36S 125-12E C. 38-54S 126-06E D. 53-42S 121-00E
2. HAZARDOUS WINDOW 0000 UTC TO 0600 UTC DAILY FROM 02 FEB TO 12 FEB 2026
NNNN   

Despite the presence of the Fregat, it now looks like the rocket will not be carrying the 16 Rassvet satellites. Last May, an official of Bureau 1440 (the company in charge of Rassvet) said that the first 16 satellites to be launched from Plesetsk would be part of the Rassvet-3 constellation.
https://telecomdaily.ru/news/2025/05/23/kosmicheskaya-gruppirovka-byuro-1440-sostavit-924-sputnika-uzhe-v-2035-godu

According to documents filed by Bureau 1440 with the International Telecommunications Union last April, satellites belonging to the Rassvet-3 constellation will operate in orbits with an inclination of 82.3°. The other two constellations (Rassvet-1 and 2) will have inclinations of 60° and 88° respectively. I understand those satellites will be launched from Vostochny and possibly Baikonur as well.

RSW is now listing that it is a classified payload.

[B. Hendrickx]

RSW is now listing that it is a classified payload.

The obvious conclusion now that Rassvet has been ruled out.

Russian authorities are now giving a somewhat shorter launch period, from February 2 until 7, such as in this impact warning for the first stage boosters in the White Sea.

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 12 КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 02 ПО 07 ФЕВ 1500 ДО 2200
РАЙОНЕ  ЗАПРЕТНОМ  ДЛЯ ПЛАВАНИЯ
66-10.0С 037-10.0В 66-00.0C 038-20.0В
65-30.0С 038-30.0В 65-30.0С 037-30.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 072300 ФЕВ=
291100 МСК ГС-

[zubenelgenubi]

Soyuz-2/Fregat
97 to 98 deg inclination ~ Sun-Synchronous Orbit
Classified

What likely 2026 payloads fit the above?
(Noting that this could be unknown outside the Russian military/intelligence/industrial complex.)

[Alter Sachse]

The launch vehicle should be at the launch site.

[B. Hendrickx]

Soyuz-2/Fregat
97 to 98 deg inclination ~ Sun-Synchronous Orbit
Classified

What likely 2026 payloads fit the above?

The most obvious candidates that come to mind are reconnaissance satellites.

Optical: 
Razbeg (14F169): will need Fregat for some missions (according to an environmental impact assessment report published in 2024)

Radar:   
-Araks-R (14F155): reportedly based on NPO Lavochkin’s heavy Navigator platform, so it may well need a Fregat
-Neitron nr. 2 (14F01-2): the first one (Kosmos-2553, now defunct) was deployed (by Fregat) into a high 67° inclination orbit, but there are some vague signs that a variety of inclinations was considered for these satellites. However, it is unclear if the second satellite is still supposed to be launched.

I wonder though if the unusually long 7-hour launch window is consistent with any of these payloads, which usually have rather strict lighting requirements. In fact, there hasn’t been such a long window for any launch from Plesetsk in recent memory.

Anyway, it doesn’t make much sense to dive too deep into speculation at this point. As usual, we’ll have to wait for the Two-Line Elements after launch.

[Alter Sachse]

Kosmos 2576 and Kosmos 2588 were launched with Soyuz 2.1b/Fregat. Inclination of 97° and 73°, respectively.

[B. Hendrickx]

Kosmos 2576 and Kosmos 2588 were launched with Soyuz 2.1b/Fregat. Inclination of 97° and 73°, respectively.

Those are 14F150/Nivelir satellites that were placed into the same plane as the USA 314 and USA 338 reconnaissance satellites. Kosmos-2576 needed the Fregat because there were a number of co-passengers that needed to be placed into different orbits. Kosmos-2588 needed the upper stage because the inclination had to be changed from 67° to 73° after launch (a direct insertion into a 73° inclination orbit was impossible due to range safety restrictions).

I didn't add 14F150 to the candidates for the upcoming launch for two reasons:

1) a production schedule of NPO Lavochkin for the period 2017-2025 showed only five 14F150 satellites, all of which have now been launched (Kosmos-2519, 2542, 2558, 2576, 2588)

2) the only big US spy satellites in Sun-synchronous orbits that have not yet been observed by Nivelir satellites are two aging ones, namely USA-186 and USA-224 (launched in 2005 and 2011), which may not be of particular interest to the Russians. Moreover, the 7-hour launch window is not consistent with something that needs to be inserted into a very specific orbital plane. 

[B. Hendrickx]

A new NOTAM has appeared for the impact of the first-stage strap-on boosters, this time for the period February 8 to 12.

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 13 КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 08 ПО 12 ФЕВ 1500 ДО 2200
РАЙОНЕ  ЗАПРЕТНОМ  ДЛЯ ПЛАВАНИЯ
66-10.0С 037-10.0В 66-00.0C 038-20.0В
65-30.0С 038-30.0В 65-30.0С 037-30.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 122300 ФЕВ=
301100 МСК ГС-
НННН

Meanwhile, this warning for third stage impact in the Pacific gives the launch period as February 3 to 12.

A0447/26   Effective Date: 2026-02-03 15:00:00
A0447/26 NOTAMN
Q) KZAK/QWMLW////000/999/
A) KZAK
B) 2602031500
C) 2602122200
D) DLY 1500 - 2200
E) THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION PLANS TO CONDUCT ROCKET FIRINGS. DEBRIS FROM THIS LAUNCH WILL FALL WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 264300N 1302200W TO 304000N 1292900W TO 305300N 1304600W TO 265700N 1313900W TO POINT OF
ORIGIN. IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY ALL NON-PARTICIPATING AIR TRAFFIC ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE NOTAMED AREA. IFR AIRCRAFT UNDER ATC JURISDICTION SHOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARANCE AROUND THE NOTAMED AREA.
F) SFC
G) UNL

NOTAMs were issued as early as January 26 both for the periods February 2-7 and February 2-12 and now we see February 3-12 and February 8-12. Not sure whether to interpret this as a launch delay or two launches planned for a 10-day period, although the latter is rather hard to believe. Hopefully, further NOTAM updates in the coming hours and days will shed light on this.

[russianhalo117]

A new NOTAM has appeared for the impact of the first-stage strap-on boosters, this time for the period February 8 to 12.

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 13 КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 08 ПО 12 ФЕВ 1500 ДО 2200
РАЙОНЕ  ЗАПРЕТНОМ  ДЛЯ ПЛАВАНИЯ
66-10.0С 037-10.0В 66-00.0C 038-20.0В
65-30.0С 038-30.0В 65-30.0С 037-30.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 122300 ФЕВ=
301100 МСК ГС-
НННН

Meanwhile, this warning for third stage impact in the Pacific gives the launch period as February 3 to 12.

A0447/26   Effective Date: 2026-02-03 15:00:00
A0447/26 NOTAMN
Q) KZAK/QWMLW////000/999/
A) KZAK
B) 2602031500
C) 2602122200
D) DLY 1500 - 2200
E) THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION PLANS TO CONDUCT ROCKET FIRINGS. DEBRIS FROM THIS LAUNCH WILL FALL WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 264300N 1302200W TO 304000N 1292900W TO 305300N 1304600W TO 265700N 1313900W TO POINT OF
ORIGIN. IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY ALL NON-PARTICIPATING AIR TRAFFIC ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE NOTAMED AREA. IFR AIRCRAFT UNDER ATC JURISDICTION SHOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARANCE AROUND THE NOTAMED AREA.
F) SFC
G) UNL

NOTAMs were issued as early as January 26 both for the periods February 2-7 and February 2-12 and now we see February 3-12 and February 8-12. Not sure whether to interpret this as a launch delay or two launches planned for a 10-day period, although the latter is rather hard to believe. Hopefully, further NOTAM updates in the coming hours and days will shed light on this.

There were more than three other assembled rockets (one was for Rassvet-3 constellation L1 campaign) when Obzor-R 1 launched and both 43/3 and 43/4 are ready to accept launch campaigns.

[B. Hendrickx]

Meanwhile, this warning for third stage impact in the Pacific gives the launch period as February 3 to 12.

This has been updated back to February 2-12.

Right now there are NOTAMs for February 2-12 as well as separate ones for February 2-7 and February 8-12 (with the same daily windows). There are first-stage impact warnings for both Feb 2-7 and Feb 8-12. I understand both of these are active NOTAMs, so the second one doesn't replace the first one. One possible interpretation is that a second launch with similar objectives is planned for February 8, although that is by no means certain. At any rate, based on the available NOTAMs, the launch window should open today. We'll just have to wait and see if something actually happens.

There were more than three other assembled rockets (one was for Rassvet-3 constellation L1 campaign) when Obzor-R 1 launched and both 43/3 and 43/4 are ready to accept launch campaigns.

Any open source for this or inside info?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Well this doesn't look like to have happened on the first day...

[B. Hendrickx]

Well this doesn't look like to have happened on the first day...

Neither did it on the second day of the window.
Early on 2 February (around 7.00 UTC) a new set of NOTAMs was released for Feb 2-7, including this one:

Q1172/26 NOTAMN
Q) ULLL/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/7025N03223E032
A) ULLL B) 2602021500 C) 2602072200
D) 02-07 1500-2200
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT:
705600N0320500E-701000N0334000E-695400N0324000E-
700928N0320152E-701000N0320500E-705600N0320500E.
F) GND  G) UNL

ULLL is the code for the so-called Flight Information Region of St.-Petersburg.
These are still listed as active NOTAMs.

Meanwhile, a new warning has appeared for Feb 8-12, this time for the impact of the payload fairing:

COASTAL WARNING MURMANSK 24
BARENTS SEA
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 08 TO 12 FEB
1500 TO 2200 NAVIGATION PROHIBITED
IN TERRITORIAL WATERS DANGEROUS
OUTSIDE IN AREA BOUNDED BY

70-56-00N 032-04-58E
70-10-00N 033-40-00E
69-54-00N 032-40-00E
70-08-00N 032-04-58E
70-15-00N 031-50-00E
70-30-07N 031-50-00E
70-36-22N 031-43-18E

2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 122300 FEB 26

So the situation remains confusing...

[B. Hendrickx]

An insider on the NK forum writes that the launch is planned for today (February 5) at 21:57 Moscow time, which is 18:57 UTC.

This most likely means that the NOTAMs for February 8-12 (see earlier posts) are for a second launch with similar objectives.

[B. Hendrickx]

Insider reports the rocket has lifted off without any problems.

[russianhalo117]

Insider reports the rocket has lifted off without any problems.

Reported to be a Soyuz-2-1B/Fregat from 43/4 on RSW, etal.

[B. Hendrickx]

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/26364197

TASS confirms successful lift-off. It's a Soyuz-2.1b with satellites (plural) for the Ministry of Defense. Liftoff time is given as 18:59 UTC.

[B. Hendrickx]

https://tass.ru/kosmos/26364845

Standard announcement by the Ministry of Defense that the satellites have been placed into the planned orbits and that stable communications have been established with them.

Footage of the launch is here:
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/26364197

The rocket has the big 81KS payload fairing.

Waiting for the TLEs now.