I open this thread for debate, the future economic of space, and the subsector that can grow more in the future...
Quote from: Tywin on 12/08/2025 05:33 pmI open this thread for debate, the future economic of space, and the subsector that can grow more in the future...The first thing in discussing the economic subsectors of space is to list the ones that currently exist and others soon to exist. From there we can have a discussion of the potential growth. This could be a long list. making for a thread that could go off in a lot of directions. I suggest you put some focus on it such as commercial activity in Earth orbit or military activity in earth orbit (Golden Dome could be massive spending). Economic activity in cis-lunar space which could grow significantly in the next couple of decades. I would also suggest putting a time frame on it so it doesn't devolve into the economics of mining asteroids in the end of the century. We're looking at potential for Data Centers in orbit, ISRU production on the Moon, SBSP, orbital tourism, etc. Please give your thread some focus or people will be re-arguing the minutia of other threads on lots of topics.
Future:Private Space StationsFactories in Space - Microgravity InvestigationData Centers in SpaceMoon Surface HabitatsMoon Mining - NEAs AsteroidsUtilities on Space - Energy
Quote from: Tywin on 12/12/2025 08:40 pmFuture:Private Space StationsFactories in Space - Microgravity InvestigationData Centers in SpaceMoon Surface HabitatsMoon Mining - NEAs AsteroidsUtilities on Space - EnergyI'll give my opinion on these in order:Private Space Stations: I don''t think there will be much demand beyond the capacity being built right now. Once they fly and if there is a steadily growing demand, then the ones already in orbit will have a huge lead and it may be hard for other players to catch up.Factories in Space - Microgravity Investigation:This goes hand in hand with the slow growth in private space stations. Because the transportation costs are still pretty high for manufactured goods, I think this one won't take off very fast until launch costs are down another order of magnitude.Data Centers in Space: This is the one that I think will get a mad rush of money over the next five years. Every Venture Capitalist on the planet wants in on AI and don't want to miss the huge return. Regardless of the quality of business plans money is going to flow. Five years from now it will depend upon how the next five years go. If ground based systems keep getting the opposition they are and AI data centers in orbit are generating cash this will be the biggest growth market of the 2030s.Moon Surface Habitats: I don't think there will be a market for more than a handful of Moon habitats until the lunar landrs have proven themselves and there is a much cheaper alternative to getting people to lunar orbit than SLS/Orion. I don't see much of a market until after 2035.Moon Mining - NEAs Asteroids: I don't see this market developing in the next ten years more than experiments on the Moon for extracting water. I just don't see mining NEAs worth the effort anytime soonUtilities on Space - Energy: I am no longer a fan of SBSP. I see too many technical, political and cost hurdles to make it practical any time soon. I think it has one thing in common with fusion, it's always 30 years away. Hopefully with recent breakthroughs in fusion, that's no longer 30 years away. If fusion becomes practical and modular fission reactors are built, the argument for space based solar will be harder to make.Out of these options, I see orbital data centers drawing the vast majority of the venture capital directed at space. That will drive continuous investment in orbital internet, vehicle development and all the supporting technology and services required. Add in the inevitable grow in military space spending, I think we're going to see the space sector grow over the next 15 to 20 years like never before. If the sectors I'm pessimistic on take off, it's going to be an incredible ride.
