Xingwang Digui 12A-I - CZ-8A (Y4) - Hainan - October 16, 2025 (01:33 UTC)

[TheKutKu]

A CZ-8A was transfered to HCSLC LCC-1 on the evening of the 27th, it is very likely Y4 which CALT previously announced its final assembly in August.

Local airspace closure runs from October 7 to October 10, this fits with touristic informations about this launch.

It is likely a Guowang launch, but there is no way to be sure until the NOTAM is published.

EDIT: Correction, the transfer on the evening of the 27th was from the HCSLC CZ-8-series assembly building to the CZ-8-series pyrotechnics installation facility, the transfer to LCC-1 happened on the morning of the 30th, a bit over 2 days later.

[mikezang]

The NOTAM for CZ-8A Y4 from Hainan at 03:19 UTC.

[TheKutKu]

The launch is delayed because of the typhoon Matmo, the RPHI NOTAM have been removed

btw relevant recent paper
Risk Decision-making Design for Mission at Coastal Space Launch Site under Typhoon Condition ZHONG Wenan et al.  2025

[mikezang]

The launch is delayed because of the typhoon Matmo, the RPHI NOTAM have been removed

btw relevant recent paper
Risk Decision-making Design for Mission at Coastal Space Launch Site under Typhoon Condition ZHONG Wenan et al.  2025

Did you check the NOTAM? the RPHI NOTAM still active!

[TheKutKu]

The launch is delayed because of the typhoon Matmo, the RPHI NOTAM have been removed

btw relevant recent paper
Risk Decision-making Design for Mission at Coastal Space Launch Site under Typhoon Condition ZHONG Wenan et al.  2025

Did you check the NOTAM? the RPHI NOTAM still active!

It was removed on the site I was using to check them yesterday, it seems back on.
Either way the rocket was rolled back: https://v.douyin.com/3ccFhofn5Vo/ so it is getting delayed.

From the link in my other post:

The reverse process has now been successfully completed, and the rocket has safely returned to the factory and is on standby.

[mikezang]

It is said the the CZ-8A will be transferred tomorrow and launch as planned...

[Galactic Penguin SST]

It is said the the CZ-8A will be transferred tomorrow and launch as planned...

Brand new related NOTAM was issued half a day ago so I guess this really is happening.

[mikezang]

It is said this delayed to October 16 though the old NOTAM still active, which will be updated since October 9 after long holidays.

[mikezang]

The CZ-8A Y4 finished to transfer today.

[mikezang]

The NOTAM updated to October 16 about 01:33 UTC..

[mikezang]

There is anither new NOTAM as the same time as old, I am not sure this mistak for NOTAM or there is two launch in two hours.

[mikezang]

1A: RPHI,B4807/25,2025/10/10 03:11,2025/10/10 03:37;N12°52',E116°12'|N13°12',E116°38'|N12°04',E117°34'|N11°43',E117°07'
1B: RPHI,B4808/25,2025/10/10 03:12,2025/10/10 03:48;N07°54',E119°55'|N08°21',E120°30'|N07°28',E121°10'|N07°19',E121°11'|N06°59',E120°44'|N07°02',E120°35'

4A: RPHI,B4980/25,2025/10/16 01:25,2025/10/16 01:52;N12°52',E116°12'|N13°12',E116°38'|N12°04',E117°34'|N11°43',E117°07'
4B: RPHI,B4981/25,2025/10/16 01:26,2025/10/16 02:03;N07°54',E119°55'|N08°21',E120°30'|N07°28',E121°10'|N07°19',E121°11'|N06°59',E120°44'|N07°02',E120°35'

5A: RPHI,B4982/25,2025/10/16 03:12,2025/10/16 03:48;N07°54',E119°55'|N08°21',E120°30'|N07°28',E121°10'|N07°02',E120°35'

That is very stange, why is the NOATM on Ocotober 10 still active?!
is it possible there are two launches, Y4 is still on October 10 and Y5 is on October 16...

[TheKutKu]

In theory that may be possible since the HCSLC LCC-1 pad turnaround time was previously announced as 5 days according to https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/digi/2025-03-14/doc-inepqnps9982598.shtml

And a Second vertical assembly & test platform in the technical area that would enable "concurrent testing of two rockets, doubling its assembly and testing capabilities. increasing the annual launch rate of the Long March 8A rocket from 10 to 20" was supposed to be completed this month according to https://news.bjd.com.cn/2025/08/26/11284288.shtml

But 2 weeks preparation time since the arrival of the CZ-8A Y5 on october 1st (see picture) seems a surprisingly short preparation time when previous CZ-8A took 1.5-2 months from arrival to launch attempt.

I would say the simplest explanation is that they forgot to remove the NOTAM.

[mikezang]

RPHI/B4807/25 and RPHI/B4808/25 removed!

[mikezang]

Launched!

[TheKutKu]

~01:33:09 UTC

[jcm]

This news story
https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/1760584137129078.html
appears to give an incorrect launch time (1111 BJT  = 0311 UTC). It does say the payloads are indeed 卫星互联网低轨12组卫星
(Satnet LEO Group 12)
but this one
https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2025/10-16/10499251.shtml
gives the correct time  (0933 BJT = 0133 UTC)

[Galactic Penguin SST]

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1978672919958953987

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1978645041544331594

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/raz_liu/status/1978638613354074200

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/raz_liu/status/1978669448174170221