When will we reach 1000 launches per year?

[Tywin]

Ok similar to this old thread-poll, when your think, we had 1000 launches per year in the World?

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46419.0

[Tywin]

I think so, with China with 2-3 mega constellations deployment already, and soon reusable rockets, we will had 500 launches very soon, maybe in 3-5 years...

But my bet, is 2035 for 1000 launches in the World...

[AmigaClone]

First, to answer the question posed in https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46419.msg2327066#msg2327066

posted by

02 January 2022
When we reach the 200 launches per year?

That mark was reached in 2023.

Based on the first half of 2025, we could reach 300 launches this year. I suspect we might see F9 peak at around 200 launches/year. Once Starship cadence ramps up, F9 cadence with drop quickly.

For 1000 launches per year, we will need to see several launch vehicles with a combined launch cadence of about 4.5x the current launch cadence of a Falcon 9.

The big projects for those launch vehicle families would include launches supporting mega-constellations, launches supporting permanent lunar bases, and launches supporting Mars colonization. I would say that it would be ten years or more - unless several companies actually meet their stated goals for the next decade.

[Tywin]

First, to answer the question posed in https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46419.msg2327066#msg2327066

posted by

02 January 2022
When we reach the 200 launches per year?

That mark was reached in 2023.

Based on the first half of 2025, we could reach 300 launches this year. I suspect we might see F9 peak at around 200 launches/year. Once Starship cadence ramps up, F9 cadence with drop quickly.

For 1000 launches per year, we will need to see several launch vehicles with a combined launch cadence of about 4.5x the current launch cadence of a Falcon 9.

The big projects for those launch vehicle families would include launches supporting mega-constellations, launches supporting permanent lunar bases, and launches supporting Mars colonization. I would say that it would be ten years or more - unless several companies actually meet their stated goals for the next decade.

Yeah I see easy to reach 500 launches in the next few years, but after that is difficult to growth a lot more...

[redneck]

I would say that it would be ten years or more - unless several companies actually meet their stated goals for the next decade.



Yeah I see easy to reach 500 launches in the next few years, but after that is difficult to growth a lot more...

That depends on future markets coming online.  If tourism gets price competitive enough, 1,000 flights would be trivial. I suggest at least 10 years though before safe and affordable enough for routine flights is common. Could be far less, though unlikely I think.

Solar power in low(ish) orbit is possible, even if unlikely.

Manufacturing and private research seem like the next  expansion market.

[DeimosDream]

Not in our lifetimes, especially not if only counting orbital.

Mega project that requires 100+ flights/year will drive development of bigger more efficient and less frequently launched rockets that will allow increased tonnage at decreased flight rates.

400 seems likely.
600 seems plausible, especially as a peak rather than routine.
800+ I can't imagine.

[spacenut]

Musk wants thousands of Starships going to Mars during the right synods.  Mid-2030's maybe. 

[Tywin]

185 flights in August!

https://twitter.com/SpaceIntel101/status/1959521336297984092

[stormhelm]

Unrealistic and a pipe dream..

[Tywin]

IF this happend, the 1000 launch a year, doesn't look so far anymore...

https://twitter.com/sundarpichai/status/1985754323813605423

[spacenut]

Well, Honda in Japan is developing a reusable rocket.  So is China, and I think Russia.  If other countries want to get in on the LEO constellations, etc, or actually build space stations, moon bases and go to Mars.  World wide totals could be around 1,000 per year within the next 10 years.  SpaceX will have moved on to Starship once it gets reusable, and Starship will require fewer launches than F9 for the Starlink constellation.  However, Amazon wants to build a constellation as well as talk in Europe, Russia, and China for their own constellations.  With Reusable rockets this may become a reality. 

SpaceX will probably get 175 maybe this year, but how many New Glenns, Vulcans, Atlas V's, Electrons, not counting Russia, China, Japan, and maybe others like India will the world wide total this year be?

I don't think SpaceX will increase more than this year on F9's unless they get another drone ship or two.  Landing on a droneship adds at least a week to turn around time. 

[Tywin]

Well, Honda in Japan is developing a reusable rocket.  So is China, and I think Russia.  If other countries want to get in on the LEO constellations, etc, or actually build space stations, moon bases and go to Mars.  World wide totals could be around 1,000 per year within the next 10 years.  SpaceX will have moved on to Starship once it gets reusable, and Starship will require fewer launches than F9 for the Starlink constellation.  However, Amazon wants to build a constellation as well as talk in Europe, Russia, and China for their own constellations.  With Reusable rockets this may become a reality. 

SpaceX will probably get 175 maybe this year, but how many New Glenns, Vulcans, Atlas V's, Electrons, not counting Russia, China, Japan, and maybe others like India will the world wide total this year be?

I don't think SpaceX will increase more than this year on F9's unless they get another drone ship or two.  Landing on a droneship adds at least a week to turn around time.

Yeah right now China, is deployment 3-4 mega constellation, and they reusable rockets are very close to start to flight, with the Kuipersats, SDA-Goldem Dome, etc, maybe 500 is easy in a few years...

But for 1000 a year, is need something like data centers in orbit...

[Robotbeat]

I don't think 1000 per year is that outlandish. We're gonna get over 300 this year (half from one single launcher), and if you assume 20% compounded growth, that's only 7 years away. With at least 6 US RLVs alone under development or operating (plus like 3 or 4 more outside the US); that's hardly crazy to get to 1000 in the next 7-10 years.

[XRZ.YZ]

I would think likely before 12/31/2030

[Tywin]

Amazing this last month:

https://twitter.com/ApoStructura/status/1995424730573308115

[AmigaClone]

Amazing this last month:

https://twitter.com/ApoStructura/status/1995424730573308115

If the 18 September 2025 Zuljanah launch from Iran was an orbital launch attempt, September 2025 also saw 31 orbital launch attempts in 30 days.

[catdlr]

For the year:

https://twitter.com/ApoStructura/status/1985064660186354104

ApoStructura
@ApoStructura
·
Dec 2
All 258 rockets launched in 2025 so far, chronologically and at scale.

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

Companies like Rocket Lab could add to this total pretty soon, but 1000 is a pretty big jump from this year's cadence of 300 or so.  Starship will eventually displace F9 launches and could actually decrease the number initially if successful.  New Glenn is big, it could add a couple dozen, not hundreds, to the yearly total.  There are a lot of small launchers out there still in development though, and actual space industry could start showing up in another decade, which would spur an major increase in launch cadence.

I'll say 2038.