Soyuz 2.1v/Volga - Kosmos-2581/82/83 - Plesetsk - 5 February 2025 (03:59:24 UTC)

[Alter Sachse]

They call it Kosmos 2581 (?) in the video.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

From Robert Christy:

https://x.com/OrbitalFocus/status/1887142116809130221

Launch Report

Cosmos 2581, 2582 & 2583
2025 Feb 5, 04:00 UTC
Soyuz-2 1V
Plesetsk
http://orbitalfocus.uk/2025#026

Military sats to 82° inclination as expected but type and mission currently unknown

Launch time is ±2 min

Looking at Space-Track I see up to 5 different objects from this launch, up to 4 of which might be payloads:
2025-026A/62902: 578 x 595 km x 81.99°
2025-026B/62903: 576 x 597 km x 81.99°
2025-026C/62904: 580 x 597 km x 81.99°
2025-026D/62905: 578 x 593 km x 81.99°
2025-026E/62906: 210 x 578 km x 82.00° (Soyuz-2.1v 2nd stage or Volga upper stage?)

[zubenelgenubi]

Possibly Kosmos 2581, 2582, 2583, and 2584.

Or 3 more Rodnik ?

Could this be a Rodnik triplet + 1 something else?  That has been done before with both Rodnik-S and Gonets-M triplets.

Or, what about Gonets-M1?

Edited

[Alter Sachse]

Possibly Kosmos 2581, 2582, 2583, and 2584.

Or 3 more Rodnik ?

Could this be a Rodnik triplet + 1 something else?  That has been done before with both Rodnik-S and Gonets-M triplets.

Or, what about Gonets-M1?

Edited

...although it's not the typical orbit.

[russianhalo117]

Anatoly Zak said that the second stage made orbit rather the three drop zones were for the core stage, the PLF and Volga.

Several hours after the launch, the US Space Force cataloged five objects associated with the mission, one of which appeared to be a second stage left in the initial elliptical orbit and four others in the final near-circular orbit, which could be the payloads and the Volga space tug:

[Liss]

Launched at 03:59 UTC according to https://www.uecrus.com/press/dvigatel-odk-obespechil-zapusk-rakety-soyuz-2-1v-s-kosmodroma-plesetsk/

[Alter Sachse]

Bart once wrote something about a triple launch of (optical ?) satellites.
I can't remember where.

[russianhalo117]

Bart once wrote something about a triple launch of (optical ?) satellites.
I can't remember where.

I pm'd him asking him to reply about this when he gets the chance.

[B. Hendrickx]

Bart once wrote something about a triple launch of (optical ?) satellites.
I can't remember where.

See the thread on project Razbeg (small optical reconnaissance satellits of VNIIEM):
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48110.0

A trio of such satellites would most likely require a Soyuz-2/Fregat. A study on the environmental impact of Razbeg launches published last year did give the Soyuz-2.1v as one of several possible launch vehicles for the satellites, but did not mention the Volga upper stage. Neither did the report mention drop zones for the launch azimuth used for this particular mission. So it looks like Razbeg can be ruled out.  It is definitely not a trio of Rodniks either because these fly in much higher orbits (1400 km).

The inclination and altitude are reminiscent of those used by a series of Soviet-era electronic intelligence satellites known as Tselina-D. It is possible that Russia has reverted to this particular orbital regime for a new generation of electronic reconnaissance satellites called Akvarel. This is a project assigned to ISS Reshetnev in 2014 about which very little has leaked out. I briefly discussed it in an article on Russian SIGINT satellites in 2021:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4154/1

I’ve been able to learn a few more things about it since, including what may have been the orbital parameters originally planned for these satellites. While the inclination observed for the current mission looks like a good match, the altitude does not. Therefore, I’m not certain if there is a link between this mission and Akvarel. It also remains to be seen what these satellites will do in the coming days and weeks to draw any more definitive conclusions. Instead of elaborating on Akvarel here, I will start a dedicated thread on this project shortly. 

With this launch, the amount of information released by the Russians has moved one more level down. All we got was a terse announcement from the Ministry of Defense on the fact that the launch had taken place and a note on the Roscosmos website that they had been successfully placed into orbit.  Missing this time were the launch time, the Kosmos numbers and the Ministry of Defense’s own standard statement that the satellites had reached their intended orbits.

All this has led to some uncertainty about exactly how many satellites were placed into orbit. However, US Space Command has now identified three of the objects as satellites (A, B, C). Object D was the Volga upper stage and it was deorbited as planned on February 5. Object E is the second stage of the Soyuz-2.1v rocket.  Space Command calls the satellites Kosmos-2581, 2582 and 2583, but, again, these names have not been officially announced by the Russians so far. That will probably have to wait until they register them with the United Nations in a couple of months.

[Alter Sachse]

It is not certain that there are 3 satellites.

https://orbitalfocus.uk/Diaries/Launches/Launches.php?year=2025#026

[B. Hendrickx]

It is not certain that there are 3 satellites.

https://orbitalfocus.uk/Diaries/Launches/Launches.php?year=2025#026

Robert Christy provides regular updates on the mission not only on his Orbital Focus website, but also on Bluesky. Judging from his posts there, the higher decay rate of object C is indicative of it being a piece of debris, although he does not rule out the possibility that it is a low-density satellite.

SpaceTrack, on the other hand, continues to identify all three objects as payloads. The radar cross sections are given as "large" for Kosmos-2581 and "medium" for Kosmos-2582 and 2583, another indication that these are not identical objects.

After performing small orbit corrections each, Kosmos-2581 and 2582 are now in identical orbits and have been flying in tandem at a range of less than 10 km since February 24. Kosmos-2583 has so far not carried out any maneuvers. It is flying slightly behind the other two, but due to its somewhat lower average altitude will catch up with them in the coming hours. It'll be interesting to see if it changes its orbit to remain in the vicinity of Kosmos-2581/2582. If not, that could be another sign that it is a passive object.

[Alter Sachse]

3 satellites !

[luritie]

https://twitter.com/COMSPOC_OPS/status/1899189227562078308
Click on tweet for article:
COSMOS 2581, What Are You Doing? [March 10]

[B. Hendrickx]

There is also a good summary of recent events (including simulated video) in the most recent edition of "The Integrity Flash", a newsletter published by ISR University.

https://isruniversity.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/116-9-Mar-2025-Integrity-Flash.pdf