Soyuz 2.1v/Volga - Kosmos-2581/82/83 - Plesetsk - 5 February 2025 (03:59:24 UTC)

[B. Hendrickx]

Navigation warnings have been issued for what is clearly the first launch of the modernized Rokot-M launch vehicle.

ZCZC KA06
300700 UTC FEB 25
COASTAL WARNING MURMANSK 20
BARENTS SEA
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 05 TO 09 FEB
0300 TO 0500 IN AREAS DANGEROUS
TO NAVIGATION BOUNDED BY
A. 70-13.0N 045-43.0E
   70-02.0N 047-12.0E
   68-49.0N 045-50.0E
   69-00.0N 044-27.0E
B. 73-06.0N 049-38.0E
   72-47.0N 051-49.0E
   71-20.0N 049-34.0E
   71-38.0N 047-29.0E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 090600 FEB 25
NNNN

The impact areas (close to Novaya Zemlya) are identical to those announced for earlier Rokot launches with trios of Rodnik (14F132) military communications satellites into 82.5° inclination orbits. Area A is for the first stage and Area B for the payload fairing. The second stage should impact somewhere in the Arctic Ocean and orbit insertion will take place with the Briz-KM upper stage.

The only known modification in Rokot-M is the replacement of a Ukrainian-built control system by a Russian one. During a visit to Plesetsk in April last year, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the first launch would take place in December, so it had been expected for a while.

The payload could be a trio of modernized Rodnik satellites that ISS Reshetnev was ordered to develop in 2015 under a project known as "Klyuch" ("key"). Six were ordered in all (serial nrs. 29/30/31 ("Block 17") and nrs. 32/33/34 ("Block 18"). Klyuch was a direct result of the sanctions imposed on Russia beginning in 2014. These made it necessary to replace foreign-built electronic components for the satellites' communications payload (14R59) by Russian-built ones. Since Rokot carried a Ukrainian-built control system, it was also decided to transfer the satellites to the Angara-1.2 launch vehicle. However, it is perfectly possible that after the later decision to fly an all-Russian version of Rokot, the satellites were moved back to that rocket.

The only other known payloads for Rokot-M are a series of unidentified military satellites built by CNIIHM. Their existence became known earlier this month with the publication of a preliminary report discussing the environmental impact of their launches. The CNIIHM satellites will be launched into a variety of orbits by both Angara-1.2 and Rokot-M, with the latter deploying them into 800 km orbits with inclinations of 82.5°, 86.4° and 98°. More in the latest post in the CNIIHM thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48108.20
Since the environmental impact study is still ongoing, it is not very likely though that the upcoming Rokot-M launch is part of this program.

[zubenelgenubi]

Moderator:
I merged old and new threads.  If the deduction is wrong, we can always split the thread again.

[Which we did]

Kosmos 2581, 2582, 2583

Rokot-M/Briz-KM-2

Plesetsk, 133/3

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Somewhat related question that has bugged me for some time - with Soyuz-2.1v working properly for more than a decade (I know that NK-33 engines stockpiles is going to be running out later, but there is an engine replacement effort as far as I understand), why would the Russian military require another LV of the same class when they barely launch more than a handful of times every year? Or is Soyuz-2.1v going to be retired?

[russianhalo117]

Somewhat related question that has bugged me for some time - with Soyuz-2.1v working properly for more than a decade (I know that NK-33 engines stockpiles is going to be running out later, but there is an engine replacement effort as far as I understand), why would the Russian military require another LV of the same class when they barely launch more than a handful of times every year? Or is Soyuz-2.1v going to be retired?

Per RSW Subscription Paywalled Article: Russia plans Rockot revival only a single completed Soyuz-2.1v remains in inventory and will be retired upon it flying as early as this year as production of a next generation Soyuz rocket is pursued. The RD-193 engine was developed as a proposal to replace the inventory of NK-33-1 engines however this plan was shelved in light of both geopolitics and the decision to develop the Next-generation Soyuz-5 rocket family. Also the Rockot-M programme has conversion inventory of 40 ICBM's to which the Russian government has directed them to be used up along with Start-1M and Dnepr-M restart programmes with Russian components.

[Nicolas PILLET]

Per RSW Subscription Paywalled Article: Russia plans Rockot revival only a single completed Soyuz-2.1v remains in inventory

The source of this information is probably this message : https://forum.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/index.php?topic=16379.msg2690042#msg2690042

[B. Hendrickx]

Looks like this is a false alarm. Impact zone B coincides with the standard impact zone for the Rokot first stage, but upon closer inspection impact zone A does not. The impact zone for the Rokot payload fairing is further downrange.

This is most likely a NOTAM for the launch of a ballistic missile which happens to share one of its impact zones with that of Rokot. Exactly the same Zone A and B coordinates were announced in late December 2013 just days prior to a Rokot launch with Rodnik satellites, but this must have been just a coincidence. It just added to the confusion.

We should still expect to see the Rokot-M launch in the coming weeks or months because in April last year it was planned for December.

My apologies for the mix-up. Perhaps it's better to remove the latest posts.

[PM3]

February 5: A Soyuz-2-1a/Volga to launch a military payload from Plesetsk.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/2025.html

There was a post today in the Rokot thread with the NOTAM; the post then was deleted. The launch window opens at 03:00 UTC.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

February 5: A Soyuz-2-1a/Volga to launch a military payload from Plesetsk.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/2025.html

There was a post today in the Rokot thread with the NOTAM; the post then was deleted. The launch window opens at 03:00 UTC.

That post was moved into the suborbital launches thread because Bart Hendrickx - who initially identified it as the first Rokot-M - has retracted his analysis:

Looks like this is a false alarm. Impact zone B coincides with the standard impact zone for the Rokot first stage, but upon closer inspection impact zone A does not. The impact zone for the Rokot payload fairing is further downrange.

This is most likely a NOTAM for the launch of a ballistic missile which happens to share one of its impact zones with that of Rokot. Exactly the same Zone A and B coordinates were announced in late December 2013 just days prior to a Rokot launch with Rodnik satellites, but this must have been just a coincidence. It just added to the confusion.

We should still expect to see the Rokot-M launch in the coming weeks or months because in April last year it was planned for December.

My apologies for the mix-up. Perhaps it's better to remove the latest posts.

[B. Hendrickx]

Yes, I've since figured out that the NOTAMs are not for Rokot-M, but for a Soyuz-2.1v/Volga that will use this particular launch azimuth only for the second time. I posted my new analysis on the NK forum a couple of hours ago (which is probably what Anatoly Zak's post is based on).

The impact zones I posted earlier are for the first stage and payload fairing of the Soyuz-2.1v.

ZCZC KA06
300700 UTC FEB 25
COASTAL WARNING MURMANSK 20
BARENTS SEA
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 05 TO 09 FEB
0300 TO 0500 IN AREAS DANGEROUS
TO NAVIGATION BOUNDED BY
A. 70-13.0N 045-43.0E
  70-02.0N 047-12.0E
  68-49.0N 045-50.0E
  69-00.0N 044-27.0E
B. 73-06.0N 049-38.0E
  72-47.0N 051-49.0E
  71-20.0N 049-34.0E
  71-38.0N 047-29.0E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 090600 FEB 25
NNNN

And this is the impact zone for the Volga upper stage following its de-orbiting about 12 hours after launch:

NAVAREA XIV WARNING 14/25
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS FROM 05 FEB TO 09 FEB 2025 DAILY BETWEEN 1400 UTC AND 1600 UTC IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
A. 30-00S 175-00W
B. 30-00S 090-00W
C. 60-00S 090-00W
D. 60-00S 175-00W
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 091700 UTC FEB 2025.
NNNN

The coordinates for first stage and payload fairing impact have not been seen since the maiden launch of Soyuz-2.1v/Volga in December 2013. This delivered three satellites (two military radar calibration satellites and the experimental Aist) satellite to a roughly 600 km orbit with an inclination of 82.4°. All subsequent Soyuz-2.1v launches were to Sun-synchronous orbits. The impact zone for the payload fairing happens to be exactly the same as that for the first stage of the Rokot launch vehicle for missions into 82.5° inclination orbits, which led me to conclude initially that the NOTAMs were for Rokot-M. The impact zone for the Volga upper stage is the standard one in the South Pacific.

There had been no indications whatsoever that Soyuz-2.1v would again use this launch azimuth. In 2021, an environmental impact study was conducted for Soyuz-2.1v launches from Plesetsk into 73° orbits, but these have not taken place yet. The only payloads launched with the Soyuz-2.1v/Volga combination in recent years have been the 14F150 Nivelir inspection satellites and the Kosmos-2561/2562 pair, but these were all placed into Sun-synchronous orbits that were co-planar with those of other satellites. I see no potential targets for inspection in 82.5° orbits, an inclination exclusively used these days by Russia's own Gonets-M and Rodnik communications satellites. The best bet at this time is that this Soyuz-2.1v will carry something entirely new.

[Alter Sachse]

Or 3 more Rodnik ?

[B. Hendrickx]

Or 3 more Rodnik ?

That thought has crossed my mind too. As I explained in the first post here, Rodnik was transferred from Rokot to Angara-1.2 sometime last decade. Judging from court documentation, that was still the plan in 2021, but who knows what happened afterwards. The Rodniks fly in 1400 km orbits with an inclination of 82.5°. According to official information from RKTs Progress, the Soyuz-2.1v/Volga combination can deliver a payload of 1400 kg to that kind of orbit, roughly the same as Rokot (based on the Eurockot user guide). The actual mass of three Rodniks is probably significantly lower than that (they're most likely similar in design to Gonets-M, which would give a total payload mass of roughly 840 kg). So theoretically it should be possible to launch three Rodniks with a Soyuz-2.1v/Volga. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. 

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Corresponding NOTAM for the upper stage de-orbit (which shows February 5 as the date):

B0480/25 NOTAMN
Q) NZZO/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/4828S15259W999
A) NZZO B) 2502051400 C) 2502051600
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA NZD095 (EAST AUCKLAND OCEANIC FIR) IS
PRESCRIBED AS FLW:
ALL THAT AIRSPACE BOUNDED BY A LINE JOINING:
38 03 00 S 131 00 00 W
66 56 00 S 131 00 00 W
60 00 00 S 175 00 00 W
30 00 00 S 175 00 00 W
38 03 00 S 131 00 00 W
ACTIVITY: MISSILE LAUNCH AND DEBRIS RETURN
USER AGENCY: FOREIGN AEROSPACE FORCE
PRESCRIBED PURSUANT TO CIVIL AVIATION RULE PART 71 UNDER A DELEGATED
AUTHORITY ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CIVIL AVIATION
F) SFC G) UNL

[Galactic Penguin SST]

This seems to be the corresponding NOTAM for the lower stages drop zones - doesn't start till 04:00 UTC daily:

X0894/25 NOTAMN
Q) ULLL/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/7056N04741E135
A) ULLL B) 2502050400 C) 2502090500
D) 05 06 07 08 09 0400-0500
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT:
1. AREA: 690000N0442700E-701300N0454300E-700200N0471200E-
         684900N0455000E-690000N0442700E
   GND-UNL.
2. AREA: 713800N0472900E-730600N0493800E-724845N0513718E-
         722555N0511349E-712000N0493400E-713800N0472900E
   GND-UNL.
F) GND  G) UNL

[zubenelgenubi]

No launch today?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

No launch today?

No idea, though someone on the N-K forums claimed that “something flew”.

Also note the closure zone in the south Pacific identified as the Volga de-orbit zone is scheduled for 14:00-16:00 UTC today, or up to 10-12 hours after launch!

[B. Hendrickx]

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/23056711

TASS reports a Soyuz-2.1v has been launched with satellites (plural) for the Minsitry of Defense. No further details so far.

[zubenelgenubi]

No launch today?

No idea, though someone on the N-K forums claimed that “something flew”.

Also note the closure zone in the south Pacific identified as the Volga de-orbit zone is scheduled for 14:00-16:00 UTC today, or up to 10-12 hours after launch!

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/23056711

TASS reports a Soyuz-2.1v has been launched with satellites (plural) for the Minsitry of Defense. No further details so far.

A long-ish duration mission with two or more satellites to be released, perhaps in different orbits, requiring multiple Volga burns, before de-orbit burn?

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/1887025219555954905

Soyuz-2-1v rocket lifts off from Plesetsk with multiple payloads for the Ministry of Defense...

[B. Hendrickx]

A long-ish duration mission with two or more satellites to be released, perhaps in different orbits, requiring multiple Volga burns, before de-orbit burn?

The Volga has so far not demonstrated the capability of deploying multiple satellites into different orbits. It usually performs a single burn to place the payload into its final orbit (within about 1 to 2 hours after launch) and then coasts for several hours until its orbit takes it over the disposal zone in the Pacific. The 10-12 hour interval between launch and de-orbit is not unusual.

The first video of the roll-out and launch has appeared on the website of the Ministry of Defense and the military Zvezda TV channel:
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12548869@egNews
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2025251037-HGTnU.html

The picture in the previous post is a file photo of a Soyuz-2.1v launch.

[Galactic Penguin SST]