Poll

Who will deploy more third-party commercial cargo in the next 5 years, NG vs SS?

New Glenn
6 (28.6%)
Starship
15 (71.4%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: 02/25/2025 10:35 am


Author Topic: Who will deploy more third-party commercial cargo in the next 5 years, NG vs SS?  (Read 15052 times)

Offline Tywin

Poll timefrane 2025 - 2030 January.



Specifications for the Poll:

Deploy third-party commercial load, clarifications:

- Starlinks for Starship is its own payload and does not count.

- Kuipersat for New Glenn, anchor payload does not count.


- Any cargo missions of SpaceX or Blue Origin products do not count (own experiments, the Blue Moon cargo, etc.)



******

- It carries all types of cargo-payload, to LEO, MEO or GEO or other Lunar or Mars orbits, etc., so that its clients are global commercial payloads.

- Also NASA or USSF payload.

- We will count by number of sats or ships, experiments, of commercial clients.
« Last Edit: 01/17/2025 10:40 am by Tywin »
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Offline DeimosDream

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Obviously Falcon 9 is going to be the real winner for the near future (next 5 years), but between the new heavy / super heavy rockets I'll vote New Glenn because of OneWeb.

Offline Yggdrasill

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Does Starshield count?

Offline Tywin

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Offline Yggdrasill

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In that case I think Starship.

Offline Tywin

DARLA cubesat (Demonstration of artificial reasoning, learning, and analysis) has switched from the Firefly Elytra-1 launch (0123-EX-CM-2025). [May 28]

Quote from: Technical Description
The primary goal of the DARLA mission is to train undergraduate students at Saint Louis University in the spacecraft design lifecycle (from concept through design & analysis to assembly, integration & test and eventually to flight operations). This goal is accomplished through a flight experiment in event detection. On-board software will control a radio receiver to scan the UHF bands for “events”: signals much stronger than the background measured in previous orbits. These events will be catalogued for later analysis and refining of the event-detection algorithm. Similar demonstrations will be run with an on-board visible-light imager, looking for such natural space phenomena as auroras and meteors. Students run the entire project, supported by faculty and industry partners.

The satellite will be launched aboard Blue Origin New Glenn launch vehicle, from Cape Canaveral, FL, NET July 1, 2025. It will be inserted into an orbit at 470 km apogee and 470 km perigee, on an inclination from the equator of 54 degrees. Transmission will begin 45 minutes after deployment and cease upon demise. Atmospheric friction will slow the satellite and reduce the altitude of the orbit, until de-orbiting occurs less than a year after launch. See the Orbital Debris Assessment Report for details.

The DARLA spacecraft conforms to the 3U CubeSat design specifications with dimensions of 10 cm X 10 cm X 34 cm and a mass not to exceed 2.5 kg.



Maybe the first for New Glenn...
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Offline Tywin

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Offline Tywin

Ok the competence begin!!!

New Glenn 1 - Starship 0

First mission cargo commercial of New Glenn (3 cargos)

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Offline JulesVerneATV

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Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket launches twin probes on trip to Mars — and scores a booster touchdown
https://www.geekwire.com/2025/second-launch-blue-origin-new-glenn-escapade-mars/

Offline Yggdrasill

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Ok the competence begin!!!

New Glenn 1 - Starship 0

First mission cargo commercial of New Glenn (3 cargos)
I thought we're counting deployed sats/ships/experiments?

So, New Glenn 2 - Starship 0

Online DanClemmensen

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From another thread:
I said, will [NG] launch more commercial payloads, not launches in general.
Do you consider Starlink launches to be "commercial payloads"? If you exclude Starlink, you should exclude Amazon LEO. Starlink will likely level out at about 40,000 satellites with a 5-year replacement cycle, so 8000/yr, so perhaps 100 launches/yr.

Offline Tywin

From another thread:
I said, will [NG] launch more commercial payloads, not launches in general.
Do you consider Starlink launches to be "commercial payloads"? If you exclude Starlink, you should exclude Amazon LEO. Starlink will likely level out at about 40,000 satellites with a 5-year replacement cycle, so 8000/yr, so perhaps 100 launches/yr.

Yes for Starship is exclude Starlink, and for New Glenn is exclude Amazon LEO.
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Offline SpaceLizard

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Is Electron launching more commercial payloads than Falcon9?... Then I'm not sure why NG will be launching more than SS.

Online sstli2

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NG is plausible for a couple reasons related to Starship:

- I expect that any and all excess Starship capacity will be absorbed by Starlink, because that's the highest and best use of it.
- It will take time for Starship to ramp up to a flight rate where Starlink and Artemis would not absorb all available capacity.
- I don't think they care about customer payloads at this point, and I don't think they will for at least a few more years, due to the points above.

Is Electron launching more commercial payloads than Falcon9?... Then I'm not sure why NG will be launching more than SS.

If this thread is based on quantity, and we are excluding Starlink, then the answer is yes, Electron did launch more commercial payloads than Falcon 9 this year. (Edit: Tywin is including NASA/USSF, so this is not the case under those parameters) Of course, they are tiny payloads by comparison.
« Last Edit: 12/08/2025 03:46 pm by sstli2 »

Offline SpaceLizard

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NG is plausible for a couple reasons related to Starship:

- I expect that any and all excess Starship capacity will be absorbed by Starlink, because that's the highest and best use of it.
- It will take time for Starship to ramp up to a flight rate where Starlink and Artemis would not absorb all available capacity.
- I don't think they care about customer payloads at this point, and I don't think they will for at least a few more years, due to the points above.

Is Electron launching more commercial payloads than Falcon9?... Then I'm not sure why NG will be launching more than SS.

If this thread is based on quantity, and we are excluding Starlink, then the answer is yes, Electron did launch more commercial payloads than Falcon 9 this year. Of course, they are tiny payloads by comparison.
For 2025 I count 34 non-Starlink and non-ISS launches versus 15 total for Electron? What are we counting as 'commercial' versus non-commercial'?
« Last Edit: 12/08/2025 02:48 pm by SpaceLizard »

Online DanClemmensen

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NG is plausible for a couple reasons related to Starship:

- I expect that any and all excess Starship capacity will be absorbed by Starlink, because that's the highest and best use of it.
- It will take time for Starship to ramp up to a flight rate where Starlink and Artemis would not absorb all available capacity.
- I don't think they care about customer payloads at this point, and I don't think they will for at least a few more years, due to the points above.

Is Electron launching more commercial payloads than Falcon9?... Then I'm not sure why NG will be launching more than SS.

If this thread is based on quantity, and we are excluding Starlink, then the answer is yes, Electron did launch more commercial payloads than Falcon 9 this year. Of course, they are tiny payloads by comparison.
Please read the initial post for the thread. Tywin is counting individual satellites, not launches,and he excludes "in-house" satellites (i.e., Starlink for SS and Amazon LEO for NG).

Offline meekGee

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NG is plausible for a couple reasons related to Starship:

- I expect that any and all excess Starship capacity will be absorbed by Starlink, because that's the highest and best use of it.
- It will take time for Starship to ramp up to a flight rate where Starlink and Artemis would not absorb all available capacity.
- I don't think they care about customer payloads at this point, and I don't think they will for at least a few more years, due to the points above.

Is Electron launching more commercial payloads than Falcon9?... Then I'm not sure why NG will be launching more than SS.

If this thread is based on quantity, and we are excluding Starlink, then the answer is yes, Electron did launch more commercial payloads than Falcon 9 this year. Of course, they are tiny payloads by comparison.
Please read the initial post for the thread. Tywin is counting individual satellites, not launches,and he excludes "in-house" satellites (i.e., Starlink for SS and Amazon LEO for NG).
Why would anyone care about this metric?  All the important stuff is self owned these days.
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Online DanClemmensen

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NG is plausible for a couple reasons related to Starship:

- I expect that any and all excess Starship capacity will be absorbed by Starlink, because that's the highest and best use of it.
- It will take time for Starship to ramp up to a flight rate where Starlink and Artemis would not absorb all available capacity.
- I don't think they care about customer payloads at this point, and I don't think they will for at least a few more years, due to the points above.

Is Electron launching more commercial payloads than Falcon9?... Then I'm not sure why NG will be launching more than SS.

If this thread is based on quantity, and we are excluding Starlink, then the answer is yes, Electron did launch more commercial payloads than Falcon 9 this year. Of course, they are tiny payloads by comparison.
Please read the initial post for the thread. Tywin is counting individual satellites, not launches,and he excludes "in-house" satellites (i.e., Starlink for SS and Amazon LEO for NG).
Why would anyone care about this metric?  All the important stuff is self owned these days.
I agree that it's a silly metric. I'd be happy with payload mass to orbit.

Offline jongoff

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I don't think it's a silly metric. If you're a customer of launch as opposed to a SpaceX or Blue Origin employee (or amazing people), it reflects how available those vehicles actually are for anything beyond Blue and SpaceX's constellations.

~Jon

Offline Metalskin

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Please read the initial post for the thread. Tywin is counting individual satellites, not launches,and he excludes "in-house" satellites (i.e., Starlink for SS and Amazon LEO for NG).
Why would anyone care about this metric?  All the important stuff is self owned these days.
Based on OP's posting and commenting history, I suspect that the purpose of the metric is to make NG and SS competitive in a way that gives NG an edge, namely ignoring tonnes to orbit, or what he has decided is "non-commercial flights".
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