Orbital launcher competition

[deltaV]

This thread is about the markets for orbital launch and the competition between launchers. I think a thread focused on the overall market will be better than the many existing threads that focus on one or two competitors. The focus is on the present and future but the past is useful to learn from. I’m especially interested in the US launchers but other countries' payloads and launchers affect the US market and are on topic. SLS is not seriously competing with other launchers so it’s off topic unless that changes.

[deltaV]

To kick off this thread here are some predictions about the US launch market in 2034.

Define a "majority-reusable stage" (respectively "fully-reusable stage") to be a stage where 50%+ (resp. 98%+) of the cost of that stage is reused. Define a "fully-reusable launch" to be a launch where every stage (including boosters) is fully-reusable. Define a "mostly-reusable launch" (resp. "partially-reusable launch") to be a launch where the first stage and boosters, if any, are fully-reusable (resp. majority-reusable) and the other stage(s) are majority-reusable (resp. no requirement). Define a "partially-reusable vehicle" to be one where its launches are usually partially-reusable with "mostly-reusable" and "fully-reusable" vehicles defined analogously. Note that mostly-reusable also includes fully-reusable and partially-reusable also includes mostly-reusable and fully-reusable. When I want to refer to e.g. mostly-but-not-fully-reusable I’ll say that explicitly.

In 2034 I’m guessing the US market will total ~300 launches (~2x 2024) and ~18k tonnes to LEO equivalent (~6x 2024). I expect 3-6 US mostly-reusable launchers made by 3-5 companies to have 97%+ of the 2034 US launch market, regardless of whether market share is weighted by tonne or by launches. The most likely winning vehicles are Starship, Nova, and mostly-reusable upgrades of 1-3 out of MLV, Neutron, Terran R, and New Glenn. I didn’t include the small launchers Electron, RS 1, Rocket 4, Alpha and Pegasus because I expect their payloads to be served by medium mostly-reusable vehicles such as Nova. I didn’t include Antares, Vulcan, or Minotaur because I don’t expect their owners to invest in mostly-reusable versions. There are way more than 5 US companies with launcher plans so most US launch businesses will either go out of business or not actually launch enough to make a profit or matter.

Some less reusable vehicles may survive a few years longer in NSSL lane 2 than they do elsewhere. This is because lane 2’s 3-winner structure, conservative customer, unusually high-energy orbits, and all-orbits-or-nothing rule reduce competitive pressures.

By the end of 2034 Falcon will either be retired or have a retirement date announced.