Russian nuclear ASAT weapons and alternatives

[B. Hendrickx]

https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4793/1

Russian research on space nukes and alternative counterspace weapons (part 1)

In February, White House officials asserted that Russia is developing a space-based anti-satellite system that would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits the deployment of weapons of mass destruction in orbit. They later confirmed media speculation that the system in question is a nuclear weapon. Part 1 of this article summarizes what has been revealed about the alleged weapon so far and attempts to chart academic and laboratory research on nuclear explosions in space done in Russia in recent years. It also examines a Russian satellite launch that the US believes is related to the development of the weapon. Part 2 will explore Russian work on alternative directed-energy weapon systems that would mimic some of the effects of nuclear explosions in space without having the same devastating consequences.

Some analysis of the alleged Russian space-based nuclear weapon that has regularly been in the news in recent months. There are no obvious signs from open sources that Russia is actively working on such a weapon or that it is part of its military doctrine. Neither is there any clear evidence to support claims that a satellite launched by Russia in 2022 (Kosmos-2553) has any direct relation to that weapon.

All that can be established from open sources is that there is continued academic interest in high-altitude nuclear explosions and their effects on the space environment. Research in the field has been carried out in recent years at RFYaTs-VNIIEF in Sarov (Russia's leading research institute in the field of nuclear weapons) and the Institute of Computer-Aided Design (IAP) in Moscow. VNIIEF has been simulating the effects of such explosions in plasma chambers such as MKV-4 and NPM-01 and IAP has been making computer simulations of nuclear explosions in space taking place with short intervals. However, such work (some of which is also being conducted in the US and China) is not necessarily indicative of an active program to develop an orbiting nuclear weapon.

I should add that if US intelligence does have solid evidence for the existence of this weapon, it is likely to be so sensitive that it has left no traces in the public domain.

PS: there is a thread on this topic in the Space Policy section:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60373.0
This is read-only, except for L2 members. I would suggest to continue technical discussions here or to merge the two threads in this section (if the moderators feel that is appropriate). 

[gosnold]

Great article! I have questions regarding the documents you surfaced . On the lab tests, on how they make them accurate despite the much reduced scale? And for the double detonation, what's the point? It gives a higher EMP?

[Star One]

Considering how powerful automated web tools are these days, and it’s known from past leaks that the NSA is plugged directly into the backbone of the internet the likelihood of any kind of sensitive info from US intelligence getting into the public domain on this topic seems close to zero.

[gosnold]

By the way, I have published an article going more into the physics of a high altitude nuke explosion (at a high level, so it's not too technical):

https://satelliteobservation.net/2024/05/05/countering-constellations-nuke-the-entire-site-in-orbit/

And I concur with the view above, I can't figure out why they would need to put a nuke in orbit while they can do a direct delivery with ICBM, and for Cosmos 2553 the link seems very tenuous.

[B. Hendrickx]

Great article! I have questions regarding the documents you surfaced . On the lab tests, on how they make them accurate despite the much reduced scale? And for the double detonation, what's the point? It gives a higher EMP?

As far as I can recall, those questions are not addressed in those articles, so your guess is as good as mine. Typically, academic articles related to military topics rarely touch upon the purpose of the research. That's something you usually need to figure out yourself.

[B. Hendrickx]

By the way, I have published an article going more into the physics of a high altitude nuke explosion (at a high level, so it's not too technical):

https://satelliteobservation.net/2024/05/05/countering-constellations-nuke-the-entire-site-in-orbit/

And I concur with the view above, I can't figure out why they would need to put a nuke in orbit while they can do a direct delivery with ICBM, and for Cosmos 2553 the link seems very tenuous.

Thanks for the link to your article. Interesting background.

As for Kosmos-2553, there was another story on its supposed link with the nuclear weapon in the Wall Street Journal yesterday:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/russia-space-nuke-launched-ukraine-invasion-c4aad62e
It mostly rehashes what has been reported on the nuclear weapon earlier. This is all it has on Kosmos-2553:

Russia launched a satellite into space in February 2022 that is designed to test components for a potential antisatellite weapon that would carry a nuclear device, U.S. officials said. The satellite that was launched doesn't carry a nuclear weapon. But U.S. officials say it is linked to a continuing Russian nuclear antisatellite program that has been a growing worry for the Biden administration, Congress and experts outside government in recent months. The weapon, if deployed, would give Moscow the ability to destroy hundreds of satellites in low-Earth orbit with a nuclear blast.

The satellite in question, known as Cosmos-2553, was launched on Feb. 5, 2022, and is still traveling around the Earth in an unusual orbit. It has been secretly operating as a research and development platform for nonnuclear components of the new weapon system, which Russia has yet to deploy, other officials said.
...
One person familiar with the matter described the launched satellite as a "prototype" for a weapon, but others said the Russian program hadn't progressed that far.

I remain skeptical.

[edzieba]

Even without a live device, there would still be all the other regular satellite systems to test: command & control and its associated ground network (presumably they'd want to be able to command it from more than just Russian territory), long-duration or accelerated wear testing (if the system is intended to loiter rather than launch-on-demand), RCS testing (if the satellite is intended to loiter in one orbit then descend for activation), etc.

------

Personally, I'd file this in the same 'doomsday weapon' category as Status 6/KANYON/Poseidon: present something that sounds cool enough that you can persuade an oligarch to lean on a pet general to fund an impressive-sounding toy, and embezzle as much funding as possible whilst doing just enough actual development work to keep the funds rolling in (and keep you safe from being drafted).

The biggest worry is if the white elephant accidentally is 'finished' and makes its way to deployment rather than remaining perpetually in development. This happened with Kinzhal, and once exposed to actual use it turned out to just be an Iskander tossed from an aircraft rather than a tube rather than the claimed hypersonic wunderwafffen. The worry for those working on such projects is that the gravy train may stop once it collides with reality, and the worry for everyone else is that an obviously terrible idea may end up getting built and deployed anyway because nobody is willing to lose face over it (this happened with Kinzhal), so something as stupid as placing a nuclear device in orbit may end up occurring just from nobody involved being willing to admit it's stupid.

[B. Hendrickx]

The second part of my article is now up on The Space Review:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4797/1

It discusses Russian research on counterspace systems that would mimic some of the effects of nuclear explosions in space without having the same devastating consequences, more particularly plasma weapons and radio frequency weapons (also known as non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse weapons).

Research on anti-satellite plasma weapons appears to be largely theoretical, although there are some indications that Russia may be preparing laboratory experiments similar to MARAUDER in the US back in the 1990s. There has also been laboratory work to simulate the release of chemicals into the ionosphere by satellites. This could be applicable to both plasma and nuclear weapons.

There also appears to be considerable interest in anti-satellite electromagnetic pulse weapons, particularly those generating ultra-wide band (UWB) signals. This is reflected by both theoretical and laboratory research into the propagation of UWB signals through the ionosphere. The research may even have extended to a space project known as Numizmat, which could already have seen one or more launches.

A facility used for simulating both the release of chemicals into the ionosphere and UWB signal propagation through the ionosphere is the Krot plasma chamber of the Institute of Applied Physics (IPF) in Nizhniy Novgorod.

[gosnold]

Thanks for the article, the Russian wunderwaffe rabbit hole truly has no end!

It's a bit surprising they want to use UWB from the ground, since in this definition UWB means the bandwidth and the central frequency are roughly equal, so there is a lot of low frequency content that is hard to focus. And with ground-to-LEO engagements in the 1000km ballpark you definitely want to focus.

Also for plasma guns, I don't understand why they want to use them in the high atmosphere (150 to 300km). Even with 100km range with the neutral particles, that's still too short to reach practical LEO. And they can only fire them along magnetic field lines.