Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat - Kosmos-2576/Bureau 1440/Zorkiy-2M/SITRO-AIS - Plesetsk - 16 May 2024 21:21:39

[B. Hendrickx]

NAVAREA XIX 46/24

BARENTS AND NORWEGIAN SEAS
AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION
DUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL
16 TO 26 MAY DAILY FROM 2000 TO 2300 UTC
A. 76-30.0N 022-00.0E
B. 75-20.0N 024-40.0E
C. 74-50.0N 021-40.0E
D. 75-50.0N 018-40.0E

This is the impact zone for the core stage of the Soyuz-2.1a/Soyuz-2.1b in the Barents Sea, so it's a launch into polar orbit.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Same closure zone but for air traffic:

A2520/24 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7540N02149E051
A) ENOB B) 2405162000 C) 2405262300
D) DAILY 2000-2300
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA MAY 24' ACTIVATED. PSN
763000N 0220000E - 752000N 0244000E - 745000N 0214000E - 755000N
0184000E - 763000N 0220000E - (763000N 0220000E) IMPACT AREA FOR
RUSSIAN MISSILES
F) GND G) UNL

[zubenelgenubi]

Three possibilities?  Soyuz-2-1a or 1b launch vehicle, from Plesetsk, into polar orbit:

Planned Russian space launches
(suborbital launches are not included!)

2024
UTC Date (Format: DDD:HH:MM:SS:MS) – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome (Site/Pad) - Remarks

NET May (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Obzor-R №1 - Soyuz-2-1a (С15000-027) - Plesetsk, 43/x

TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos (Bars-M №6) - Soyuz-2-1b (x15000-xxx) - Plesetsk, 43/x

TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos (Razdan №2) - Soyuz-2-1B (x15000-xxx) - Plesetsk, 43/x

[B. Hendrickx]

NOTAM for the 1st stage drop zone:

NAVAREA XX 062/24
BARENTS SEA.
CHART RUS 10100.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 2000 TO 2300 UTC
DAILY 16 TO 26 MAY NAVIGATION
PROHIBITED IN TERRITORIAL WATERS
DANGEROUS OUTSIDE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
70-56-00N 032-04-58E, 70-10-00N 033-40-00E,
69-54-00N 032-40-00E, 70-08-00N 032-04-58E,
70-15-00N 031-50-00E, 70-30-07N 031-50-00E,
70-36-22N 031-43-18E.

This is also standard for a Soyuz-2.1a/1b launch to polar orbit, but what is definitely not is a NOTAM for the Pacific Ocean that is clearly related to this launch (posted by Marco Langbroek on the SeeSat forum):

NAVAREA XII 330/24(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
    2000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 16 THRU 26 MAY
    IN AREA BOUND BY
    29-21.00N 126-46.00W, 29-50.00N 128-52.00W,
    24-22.00N 130-24.00W, 23-53.00N 128-15.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 270001Z MAY 24.

This is an area some 1000 km from the US West Coast. The only logical explanation is that it is the impact zone for the third stage, meaning that it is suborbital and that the Soyuz-2 will need a Fregat upper stage to place the payload into orbit. This would be a first for a Soyuz-2 launch into this type of orbit from Plesetsk.

The payload could be one or more Razbeg optical reconnaissance satellites of the VNIIEM Corporation. It is known from recently published documentation that the use of Fregat is indeed envisaged for launching these satellites. The documentation, which discusses the environmental impact of Razbeg launches from Plesetsk, can be downloaded here:
https://mirniy.ru/info/ads/23826-uvedomlenie-o-provedenii-obschestvennyh-obsuzhdeniy.html

The documentation doesn’t mention the name Razbeg itself, using only the “space system” index (14K051) and the satellite index (14F169). However, there is no doubt that 14K051 is Razbeg because the two were linked in court documentation (plus 14F169 is identified as a VNIIEM satellite in the new documentation). Razbeg has been designed to be compatible with a variety of rockets. The satellites can be launched individually or in groups using the Soyuz-2.1a, Soyuz-2.1b, Soyuz-2-1v, Angara-1.2 and even Angara-A5. Fregat is given as a possible upper stage (“if available”), which obviously is only an option for the Soyuz-2.1a and 1b. Judging from the documentation, the modernized Rokot-2 with the Briz-KM-2 is also being considered as a possibility future launch vehicle. I will provide a more detailed analysis of this documentation in the Razbeg thread.

As I have explained earlier, there is good reason to believe that Razbeg is similar in design to Khayyam, the VNIIEM-built satellite that Russia launched for Iran with a Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat rocket from Baikonur in August 2022. See, for instance, here:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4475/1

Khayyam was launched alone (not counting its cubesat co-passengers), but satellites of this type can also be launched in trios, as can be seen in the attached drawings from a patent of NPK Barl, a company involved in building the ground segment for both Khayyam and Razbeg (and, most likely, their optical payloads as well). In 2022, a presentation of VNIIEM that somehow ended up online said that three of the company’s small satellites would be launched in the second half of that year. Possibly, they are now finally ready for launch. I should also point out that, as in the upcoming launch, the third stage for Khayyam’s launch was suborbital, with the Fregat delivering the payload to orbit.

There are two problems though:
1) the environmental protection report says that no new impact regions are needed for launches of the 14F169 satellites and that the Soyuz-2 third stage does reach orbit.

2) the environmental impact study was expected to last from January 15 until June 1 and public hearings were scheduled to take place between April 16 and May 15. The question is if all this work could be finished ahead of schedule to allow a launch to take place this week. By the way, the timing of the study also throws more doubt on the idea that the first Razbeg satellites were Kosmos-2574 and Kosmos-2575 (launched in December 2023 and February 2024).

So, as usual, we’ll just have to wait and see what this rocket places into orbit to draw more definitive conclusions. 

Project Razbeg

[zubenelgenubi]

SeeSat-l thread starts here: https://satobs.org/seesat/May-2024/0058.html

[Alter Sachse]

According to the NK forum it is a Soyuz 2.1v

Kosmos 2551 19:59:47
Kosmos 2558 20:25:48
Kosmos 2568 19:57:02

[Salo]

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20245161732-uOhTN.html
Google translate:

The Soyuz-2.1V rocket is scheduled to launch this evening from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region. It must launch the device into orbit in the interests of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
Students of the Suvorov military schools and cadets will watch the start. They have already arrived in Plesetsk on a special plane, reports a Zvezda correspondent.
50 students had a unique chance to see the launch of a spacecraft with their own eyes.

[B. Hendrickx]

No, wrong. First, I'm pretty sure the reporter in the clip says Soyuz-2.1b instead of Soyuz-2.1v (so the person who wrote that text seems to have misheard that). Second, the announced drop zones are for the Soyuz-2-1a/b. Another one I can add:

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 22 КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 16 ПО 26 МАЙ 2000 ДО 2300
РАЙОНЕ  ЗАПРЕТНОМ  ДЛЯ ПЛАВАНИЯ
66-10-00С 037-10-00В 66-00-00C 038-20-00В
65-30-00С 038-30-00В 65-30-00С 037-30-00В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 262400 МАЙ=
081200 МСК ГС-

This is for the first stage strap-on boosters in the southern area of the White Sea. The first set of NOTAMs in post 3 are for the payload fairing, not the first stage (I made a mistake there).

[B. Hendrickx]

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20824471

Ministry of Defense confirms the launch of a Soyuz-2.1b with satellites (plural) on board. It took place on May 17 (Moscow time). No further details so far.

[zubenelgenubi]

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20824471

Ministry of Defense confirms the launch of a Soyuz-2.1b with satellites (plural) on board. It took place on May 17 (Moscow time). No further details so far.

So, launch sometime between 21:00 and 23:00 UTC.  Moscow Standard Time = UTC + 3 hours

[Salo]

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20824471

Ministry of Defense confirms the launch of a Soyuz-2.1b with satellites (plural) on board. It took place on May 17 (Moscow time). No further details so far.

So, launch sometime between 21:00 and 23:00 UTC.  Moscow Standard Time = UTC + 3 hours

The first message was in 21:29 UTC

[Salo]

Launch video:

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2024517417-KRviF.html/player

Plesetsk 43/4

[Salo]

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2024517417-KRviF.html
Google translate:

The launch of the Soyuz-2.1b LV with military satellites of the Russian Ministry of Defense was shown on video from various angles. The launch vehicle launched from the cosmodrome at exactly 00.21 Moscow time. The launch took place from the northernmost cosmodrome Plesetsk in the Arkhangelsk region.

[Salo]

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2024517453-9grXF.html/player

[Salo]

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12513245@egNews

https://mil.ru/video/web/Plesetck_zapusk1705.mp4

[Josh_from_Canada]

Launch happened from Site 43 Pad 4

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Only one object so far but 2024-092A/59773 has been found in a 436 x 451 km x 97.25° orbit.

[jcm]

No NOTAM for a 4th stage deorbit, right?
We may see more objects cataloged today, but if not, perhaps the orbit insertion was done by the
satellite's own propulsion?  (like the US-A EORSATs back in the day)

[Galactic Penguin SST]

No NOTAM for a 4th stage deorbit, right?
We may see more objects cataloged today, but if not, perhaps the orbit insertion was done by the
satellite's own propulsion?  (like the US-A EORSATs back in the day)

I think this is the basis for speculation of upper stage used?

This is also standard for a Soyuz-2.1a/1b launch to polar orbit, but what is definitely not is a NOTAM for the Pacific Ocean that is clearly related to this launch (posted by Marco Langbroek on the SeeSat forum):

NAVAREA XII 330/24(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
    2000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 16 THRU 26 MAY
    IN AREA BOUND BY
    29-21.00N 126-46.00W, 29-50.00N 128-52.00W,
    24-22.00N 130-24.00W, 23-53.00N 128-15.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 270001Z MAY 24.

This is an area some 1000 km from the US West Coast. The only logical explanation is that it is the impact zone for the third stage, meaning that it is suborbital and that the Soyuz-2 will need a Fregat upper stage to place the payload into orbit. This would be a first for a Soyuz-2 launch into this type of orbit from Plesetsk.

[starbase]

Their orbit seems to be similar to the NROL-82 launched Crystal 18 (KH-11) NRO imaging satellite.

https://twitter.com/OrbitalFocus/status/1791407804093280485