SpaceX F9 : NROL-146 : VSFB SLC-4E : 22 May 2024 (08:00 UTC)

[gongora]

Discussion thread for NROL-146 launch.

Successful launch on Falcon 9 B1071-16 on May 22, 2024 at 4:00 AM PDT (08:00 UTC) from SLC-4E at Vandenberg.

Payload is 21 NROL imaging satellites built by SpaceX and Northrop Grumman.  Deployed to 70 degrees.

https://defensescoop.com/2024/04/09/nro-proliferated-spy-satellite-constellation-launch/

The National Reconnaissance Office is targeting early May to begin launching the first phase of an operational proliferated constellation of spy satellites to enhance the military’s ability to gather space-based intelligence.

The mission, dubbed NROL 146, will be the first launch of six that are planned in 2024 for the NRO’s future proliferated architecture, Troy Meink, the agency’s principal deputy director, said Tuesday during a keynote speech at the annual Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
...
“This launch will be the first launch of an actual operational system,” Meink said.
...
NROL-146 will be launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Meink did not provide details about how many payloads would be included in the first launch in May, or how many satellites NRO wants for the proliferated constellation.

[wannamoonbase]

Since it's an NROL payload out of Vandy I am assuming RTLS.

RTLS is nice, but Vandenberg RTLS is stunning, especially if foggy.

[GewoonLukas_]

Since it's an NROL payload out of Vandy I am assuming RTLS.

RTLS is nice, but Vandenberg RTLS is stunning, especially if foggy.

This supposedly is the 1st launch of operational Starshield satellites part of the recently leaked contract, which means that it's much more similar to a Starlink launch and could actually be a droneship landing.

[gongora]

They could be more like the sats SpaceX did for SDA Tranche 0 Tracking, and we don't know how many will be on this flight.  I'm not making any assumptions on payload mass.

[GewoonLukas_]

Confirmed for Falcon 9, targeting May 19th:

NRO’s first batch of next-generation spy satellites set for launch
The agency’s principal deputy director Troy Meink said the NRO is targeting a May 19 launch of NROL-146
May 1, 2024

The National Reconnaissance Office is preparing to launch the first phase of its new imaging satellite constellation built by SpaceX and Northrop Grumman.

The agency is targeting a May 19 launch for the mission designated NROL-146 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, Troy Meink, the NRO’s principal deputy director, said May 1.

[...]

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Still the 19th:

https://twitter.com/natreconofc/status/1789672656674886066

LAUNCH UPDATE: #NROL146 is scheduled to launch on a @SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base (@SLDelta30) May 19!

This is the first launch of NRO's proliferated architecture, delivering critical space-based ISR to the nation.

[Ken the Bin]

NGA Space Debris notice. I don't know that this notice is for this launch, but it's a possibility.

140059Z MAY 24
HYDROPAC 1605/24(22,83).
EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 07.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   190911Z TO 191327Z, 200857Z TO 201313Z,
   210843Z TO 211259Z, 220829Z TO 221245Z,
   230815Z TO 231231Z, 240801Z TO 241217Z,
   AND 250747Z TO 251203Z
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   59-58.00S 099-05.00W, 59-09.00S 095-34.00W,
   27-09.00S 120-43.00W, 27-59.00S 122-44.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 251303Z MAY 24.

[zubenelgenubi]

NGA Space Debris notice. I don't know that this notice is for this launch, but it's a possibility.

NextSF thinks that it is for this launch.

NextSpaceflight; updated May 14:
Launch 19 May ~08:00 UTC = ~1:00 am PDT

Time is approximate and based on stage 2 reentry NOTAMs.

[OneSpeed]

NGA Space Debris notice. I don't know that this notice is for this launch, but it's a possibility.

If true, the orbital inclination would be about 71.6°, prograde or retrograde.

[VLN]

Here's an FAA NOTAM from offshore northern Mexico
The recovery zone is aligned on about a 65 deg heading, but it's crowded against the east side of Isla Guadalupe. Perhaps they'll use a dogleg right to aim for 71 deg as suggested by OneSpeed.

B0375/24 NOTAMN
Q) MMFR/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/ 
A) MMFR 
B) 2405190722 
C) 2405251027
D) 19 0722-1151, 20 0708-1137, 21 0654-1123, 22 0640-1109, 
   23 0626-1055, 24 0612-1041, 25 0558-1027
E) DANGEROUS AREA FOR REENTRY ROCKET FALCON 9 NROL-146
   LATERAL LIMIT AREA FORMED BY THE UNION OF THE FLW POINTS:
   29 54N 118 10W
   30 00N 118 08W
   29 50N 117 52W
   29 23N 117 39W
   29 10N 117 22W
   28 56N 117 16W
   28 27N 117 16W
   28 21N 117 21W
   28 20N 117 33W
   28 43N 117 55W
   28 54N 118 01W
   29 15N 118 00W
   29 43N 118 11W
   29 54N 118 10W
   MMFR
F) SFC 
G) UNL

[Liss]

The 14 min/day shift looks like a NOSS orbit to me.
Also, the SE Pacific zone is probably for the second stage deorbit in the second orbit.

[Ken the Bin]

Here's an FAA NOTAM from offshore northern Mexico

Here's a matching NGA Space Debris notice that is effectively a Rocket Launching notice.

150922Z MAY 24
NAVAREA XII 339/24(21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
MEXICO.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS 
   190722Z TO 191151Z, 200708Z TO 201137Z, 
   210654Z TO 211123Z, 220640Z TO 221109Z, 
   230626Z TO 231055Z, 240612Z TO 241041Z 
   AND 250558Z TO 251027Z MAY
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   29-53.00N 118-09.00W, 29-58.00N 118-07.00W,
   29-50.00N 117-52.00W, 29-23.00N 117-39.00W,
   29-10.00N 117-22.00W, 28-56.00N 117-16.00W,
   28-27.00N 117-16.00W, 28-21.00N 117-21.00W,
   28-20.00N 117-33.00W, 28-43.00N 117-55.00W,
   28-54.00N 118-01.00W, 29-15.00N 118-00.00W,
   29-40.00N 118-10.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 251127Z MAY 24.//

[Martin_G]

https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp:

SPACEX NROL-146, VANDENBERG, SFB, CA
PRIMARY:    05/19/24   0722Z-1151Z
BACKUP:      05/20/24   0708Z-1137Z
      05/21/24   0654Z-1123Z
      05/22/24   0640Z-1109Z
      05/23/24   0626Z-1055Z

[Alexphysics]

The droneship location is in the same line as the landing locations for Group 2 missions and those went to 70 degrees so chances are NROL-146 is also going to 70 deg.

[OneSpeed]

... The recovery zone is aligned on about a 65 deg heading, ...

Here's a matching NGA Space Debris notice that is effectively a Rocket Launching notice.

Measured with a protractor I get 66°, but it is important to remember that the Web Mercator projection adopted by Google Maps displays orbits as great circle routes, so at 36.4°N (SLC-4e) there is a distortion of a few degrees. If I extend the launch ground track down to its southernmost latitude, I get 69.8°S, which is much closer to the 71.6° prograde orbital inclination I'm predicting from the second stage re-entry area. There may well be a small dogleg to get around Isla Guadalupe though.

[VLN]

Measured with a protractor I get 66°, but it is important to remember that the Web Mercator projection adopted by Google Maps displays orbits as great circle routes, so at 36.4°N (SLC-4e) there is a distortion of a few degrees. If I extend the launch ground track down to its southernmost latitude, I get 69.8°S, which is much closer to the 71.6° prograde orbital inclination I'm predicting from the second stage re-entry area. There may well be a small dogleg to get around Isla Guadalupe though.

It looks to me as though you use STK or an equivalent professional orbit tool to adjust and plot your orbit hypotheses, because they're beautiful and apparently fit points from long orbital tracks, with Earth rotation. If indeed you're fine-tuning a realistic orbit from VSFB past OCISLY all the way to the 2nd stage splashdown zone, then I trust your orbit params completely. By contrast, I'm doing a homegrown construction of a great circle from two lat-long points, and reading out inclination from that. I can also get a heading from that, but it needs a small correction for Earth rotation, which I don't always bother with.

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/NatReconOfc/status/1791175811371774050

LAUNCH UPDATE: #NROL146 is scheduled to launch on a @SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base (@SLDelta30) May 19 at 3:22 a.m. EDT!

[realnouns]

Lindsay C + OCISLY departed PoLB on May 17 @ 9:43am PT / 12:43pm ET

[zubenelgenubi]

Which first stage will be used for this launch?  (semi-rhetorical question)

Falcon 9 first stages are apparently now cleared for use up to twenty times for non-human spaceflight missions, although that number is apparently more restricted for Cargo Dragon and Cygnus than these other payloads.

Available first stages, with UTC date of most recent recovery:
1075.11   Mar 19
1071.16   Apr 2
1081.7     Apr 7
1061.21   May 2   (maybe)

Edit May 21: It's B1071.16, skipping over B1075.11 again.

[realnouns]

Go Beyond departed PoLB on May 17 @ 11:48am PT / 2:48pm ET