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#740
by
jusvans
on 29 Jun, 2024 08:56
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I would just like to add some minor transcription I did while arguing with someone elsewhere from the telecon today since I can't find an existing copy. I have cut out a couple minor sentences for brevity where appropriate otherwise you can listen to the full one for the exact uhs and uhms.
Opening comments:
Steve Stitch: “…the vehicle at station is in good shape. I want to make it very clear that Butch and Sunni are not stranded in space. Our plan is to continue to return them on Starliner and return them home at the right time.”
Mark Nappi after Steve: “First I’m going to repeat the same thing Steve said, we’re not stuck on ISS. The crew is not in any danger and there’s no increased risk when we decide to bring Sunni and Butch back to Earth. […] So we’re docked, we’re safe, and we have an approval to be a lifeboat in case of an emergency on ISS and that means we can return with the Starliner at any time. […] We understand these issues for a safe return. What we don’t understand is these issues enough yet is to fix them permanently. I’ll repeat: what we don’t understand is these issues enough yet is to fix them permanently and the only way we can do that is to take the time in this unique environment and go and get more data, run more tests. […] What we’ve done so far is we ran the hot fire test while we were docked and now we’re going to try replicating what we saw during docking with a ground test. […] We want to determine whether we should do anything more in flight, maybe we should try some more hot fires while we’re docked, maybe we want to do something when we do undock so running this [ground] test will give us more information so we can make those decisions.”
Q&A:
In reference to a question asking “...in other words, is it safe now or is there any question about that? […] You’re saying it’s safe to come home in an emergency, but that’s different from saying it’s safe to come home when everything’s normal."
Steve Stitch: “When we say it’s safe to come home in an emergency, we have confidence in the Starliner systems that the vehicle will be go to execute the sep sequence [undocking] with no problems and get to the deorbit burn with no problems and then execute a deorbit burn and once the service module jettisons obviously then it’s the crew module which doesn’t have any significant issues or anomalies at all.”
I haven't finished yet which is why this is only a partial.
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#741
by
SoftwareDude
on 29 Jun, 2024 18:04
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I am not clear on what CFT means. Once Butch and Suni return safely, does this mean Starliner is certified for regular crewed flights?
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#742
by
cpushack
on 29 Jun, 2024 18:06
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I am not clear on what CFT means. Once Butch and Suni return safely, does this mean Starliner is certified for regular crewed flights?
Only after it passed the NASA Post Flight Review
There is a lot of hedging in the statements
obviously then it’s the crew module which doesn’t have any significant issues or anomalies at all.”
It has issues, electrical mainly, just not as bad as the disposable service module.
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#743
by
clongton
on 30 Jun, 2024 00:16
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I am not clear on what CFT means.
Crew Flight Test
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#744
by
raptorx2
on 01 Jul, 2024 22:16
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I find your lack of concern ... concerning.
Hypothetical: If your wife/daughter went for a planned week trip to Asia, and sent you a blog post once a week that said:
"everything is fine. Just spending some more time studying things. Be home whenever. OK Bye bye now."
What would be a reasonable attitude toward that ? Not a perfect analogy, but it gets the point across. Concern is appropriate without more details.
AWESOME NEWS HONEY! Take all the time you need over there in Asia........ as I book some new tee times and buy a couple more cases of beer and tell my buddies they can come over for a party this weekend.
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#745
by
Craigles
on 02 Jul, 2024 13:36
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Transparent review of contingency plans may enhance capabilities and PR if they require an extra Crew Dragon at the station now. For example, how much time is required, what hardware, and who is on deck? In particular, what must we discover or confirm from testing identical thrusters on the ground this week?
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#746
by
Jim
on 02 Jul, 2024 14:05
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if they require an extra Crew Dragon at the station now.
It is nothing close to that. That is the issue, people keep on putting out ideas like that and they have to squashed
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#747
by
DanClemmensen
on 02 Jul, 2024 14:26
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if they require an extra Crew Dragon at the station now.
It is nothing close to that. That is the issue, people keep on putting out ideas like that and they have to squashed
Yep. NASA and Boeing say they will come home on Starliner. They are only extending the mission to gather as much data as possible to further characterize the problems, but they already know the crew will be safe during the return.
Even in the highly unlikely event that they decide to bring Suni and Butch back on a Crew Dragon (e.g., an entirely new problem or a micro-meteor strike on Starliner) they still do not need an entire new mission. They could choose to send Crew-9 (mid-august) up with two crew and two empty seats and let Suni and Butch join the Crew-9 mission.
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#748
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 02 Jul, 2024 17:58
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https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-boeing-test-flight-crew-to-discuss-starliner-mission-from-space/NASA’s Boeing Test Flight Crew to Discuss Starliner Mission from Space
Abbey A. Donaldson
JUL 02, 2024
MEDIA ADVISORY
M24-090
NASA Headquarters
Media are invited to hear from NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test astronauts discussing their mission during an Earth to space call at 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, July 10. NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams will participate in the news conference from aboard the International Space Station in low Earth orbit.
NASA will stream the event on NASA+, NASA Television, the NASA app, YouTube, and the agency’s website. Learn how to stream NASA TV through a variety of platforms including social media.
Media interested in participating must RSVP no later than 5 p.m., Tuesday, July 9, to the newsroom at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston at 281-483-5111 or [email protected]. To ask questions, reporters must dial into the news conference no later than 10 minutes before the start of the call.
Wilmore and Williams have been living and working aboard the station since docking on June 6, contributing to the expedition crew’s research and maintenance activities, while helping ground teams collect critical data for long-duration Starliner flights to the orbiting complex.
Learn more about space station operations at:
https://www.nasa.gov/station
-end-
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#749
by
yg1968
on 02 Jul, 2024 21:06
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I am not clear on what CFT means. Once Butch and Suni return safely, does this mean Starliner is certified for regular crewed flights?
I would expect that there will be a delay before the certification of the Staliner and
Vulcan Atlas V system is complete given the issues that the Starliner has had on this crew flight test (CFT) mission. They won't certify this commercial crew system until they understand all of the Starliner issues.
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#750
by
Asteroza
on 02 Jul, 2024 21:41
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I am not clear on what CFT means. Once Butch and Suni return safely, does this mean Starliner is certified for regular crewed flights?
I would expect that there will be a delay before the certification of the Staliner and Vulcan system is complete given the issues that the Starliner has had on this crew flight test (CFT) mission. They won't certify this commercial crew system until they understand all of the Starliner issues.
Note no Vulcan cert, just Starliner/Atlas V cert. Vulcan is another can of worms...
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#751
by
Vettedrmr
on 02 Jul, 2024 21:43
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I would expect that there will be a delay before the certification of the Starliner and Vulcan system is complete given the issues that the Starliner has had on this crew flight test (CFT) mission. They won't certify this commercial crew system until they understand all of the Starliner issues.
Vulcan's not a part of this program; Starliner is only flying on Atlas 5 rockets, AFAIK.
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#752
by
Vettedrmr
on 02 Jul, 2024 21:45
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Note no Vulcan cert, just Starliner/Atlas V cert. Vulcan is another can of worms...
If you're referring to some future (as yet unplanned) crew certification for Vulcan, I agree. Otherwise its first flight was clean, so no worms there.
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#753
by
yg1968
on 03 Jul, 2024 02:37
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I would expect that there will be a delay before the certification of the Starliner and Vulcan system is complete given the issues that the Starliner has had on this crew flight test (CFT) mission. They won't certify this commercial crew system until they understand all of the Starliner issues.
Vulcan's not a part of this program; Starliner is only flying on Atlas 5 rockets, AFAIK.
Yes, sorry I meant Atlas V, not Vulcan. Thanks for the correction.
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#754
by
SoftwareDude
on 03 Jul, 2024 05:41
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I am not clear on what CFT means. Once Butch and Suni return safely, does this mean Starliner is certified for regular crewed flights?
I would expect that there will be a delay before the certification of the Staliner and Vulcan Atlas V system is complete given the issues that the Starliner has had on this crew flight test (CFT) mission. They won't certify this commercial crew system until they understand all of the Starliner issues.
I asked the question initially because the sticky valve and the thrusters going offline might be regressions from OFT-2. If they are, I wonder how NASA can certify based on CFT. I get that all of the time they spent during the delayed return is trying to figure out the thrusters once and for all and to have the confidence that they knew what was wrong well enough to fix it. Still, that leaves the sticky valve problem as a possible regression; how would they know otherwise?
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#755
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 03 Jul, 2024 06:55
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Let’s see if I understand the current position.
I think it all comes down to how confident they can be about root causes of the issues and thus that appropriate measures can be put in place. I don’t think they need to be definitive about one root cause for each issue, provided they can address* all the likely(?)/not inconceivable(?) root causes. Without that I don’t see how Starliner gets certified, which then puts NASA/Boeing in a really tricky spot for any subsequent flights.
Hence the current focus on not doing anything (returning to Earth) that limits opportunities to get data. I assume the hard stop is likely in August when other vehicles need to visit the station, so the race is on to get as much data as possible by then. If root causes are identified sooner, so no more data is needed, or if staying on orbit is unlikely to give them any useful extra data, then they can come home earlier.
* I guess ‘address’ means fix/improve and/or through analysis show residual issue is tolerable (for example, helium loss rates low enough to be ok for long duration flight)
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#756
by
mn
on 03 Jul, 2024 10:58
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All they have to do is declare the next flight a 'long duration certification flight'. So easy and problem solved.
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#757
by
DanClemmensen
on 03 Jul, 2024 13:32
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All they have to do is declare the next flight a 'long duration certification flight'. So easy and problem solved.
Sorry, no. If NASA does not certify CFT, then Boeing has not completed the CFT milestone and they don't get paid for it. This is what happened with OFT-1. If Boeing did decide to move forward to CFT-2 with a mission plan that's identical to Starliner-1, then it would still be CFT-2 and is successful the payment to Boeing would be for the CFT, not for Starliner-1.
This is why I would really like some transparency into the evaluation methodology to be used by the NASA/Boeing team to decide whether or not to certify the CFT. The team will be under intense pressure to certify, even if not a single word is said to any team member about it. I suspect that most of the team members have invested 7 or more years of their professional lives in the success of Starliner. Outsiders from GAO, OIG, or ASAP might be more objective, assuming there were some mechanism for them to participate.
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#758
by
Lee Jay
on 03 Jul, 2024 13:44
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As I understand it, this flight doesn't have to be perfect to meet the milestone. There's a brilliant thread on L2 with all the issues that occurred on each Shuttle flight. The issues that occurred on this flight are far less critical than those on the notorious first flight. My guess is that this flight did enough to warrant moving forward with milestone completion, but with forward work to do to improve things - obviously contingent on safe return. I'm not an insider on this, so these are only educated guesses from outside.
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#759
by
Vettedrmr
on 03 Jul, 2024 13:46
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I think it all comes down to how confident they can be about root causes of the issues and thus that appropriate measures can be put in place. I don’t think they need to be definitive about one root cause for each issue, provided they can address* all the likely(?)/not inconceivable(?) root causes. Without that I don’t see how Starliner gets certified, which then puts NASA/Boeing in a really tricky spot for any subsequent flights.
Mods, if this isn't appropriate for this thread, please feel free to delete it. I spent about 8 years working software/system safety on the F-35 program, and got quite familiar with risk analysis processes either directly from or derived from Mil-Std-882. I've attached Appendix A and a generic risk assessment matrix that we tailored for our needs.
The X axis of the matrix denotes the severity of the consequence if a given risk occurs, the Y axis denotes the frequency of occurrence. This is done for every risk item identified: two examples here would be "what happens if a thruster fails" and "what happens when there is a helium leak. Each risk is managed (or "mitigated") on an individual basis, by many different methods. It might be designed out of the system, or redundancy could be added so that "X" failing can be tolerated. Or procedures can be defined as a work around. The matrix is usually color-coded so that any given risk value can be easily interpreted, and obviously you want as much green as possible. Note that it can only take ONE risk in the upper right third of the matrix to deem the system to be unsafe, so it's not an average safety rating of the system (as much as some tried on the program).
Again, if this helps understanding, great. If not, mods can delete it and we move on.
Have a good one,
Mike
