This post (and subsequent discussion thread) is intended to provide basic guidance on viewing the return of a Dragon capsule, whether Cargo Dragon or Crew Dragon.Most Dragon capsule flights go to and from the International Space Station (ISS), which necessitates an orbital inclination of 51.6 degrees. Since SpaceX supports nominal returns only to
ocean splashdown locations around the Florida peninsula, this means that the Dragon will usually be approaching on a
southeasterly track, OR a
northeasterly track. The southeasterly track will have the Dragon executing the final minutes of the (flame-y) re-entry across the southeastern US, typically over Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. The northeasterly track will put those final minutes over the Gulf Of Mexico.
To determine which of those tracks is being followed by a Dragon that has just left ISS, use an ISS tracker app to look up the ISS flyover that is happening around the splashdown time. Because the Dragon will have pretty much the same orbit as the ISS (certainly the same inclination), the ISS will fly over Florida within minutes of the splashdown, even if the Dragon had departed a day or two earlier.
The direction that the ISS flies over Florida (NW-to-SE, or SW-to-NE) will match the Dragon's track. However, most ISS tracker apps only show sightings in pre-dawn or evening skies, not in the middle of the day or middle of the night when ISS won't be visible anyway. Therefore, it's better to use
NASA's excellent Eyes On The Solar System simulator; search for ISS, then use the time controls to fast-forward to the splashdown time.
The rare Dragon flights that do
not go to the ISS, such as the Inspiration 4 or Polaris Dawn missions, could approach on
any easterly track, but usually they'll be in lower inclination orbits (e.g. 28.5 degrees) and thus will be approaching Florida from due west (heading due easterly). This means those final minutes will happen over the Gulf or along the Gulf Coast (along the northern edge of the Gulf -- the LA / MS / AL coasts), depending on which of the seven zones has been targeted.
Obviously any re-entry over land has the potential to be visible to people on the ground. Assuming clear skies, nighttime flyovers should be easy to spot -- you just need to look for the bright spot, with a glowing trail behind it, moving across the sky a bit faster than a jet.
Where in the sky depends on where you are, and which of the seven splashdown sites SpaceX is aiming at, but you may not know that ahead of time. So it's best to scan the entire sky for those several minutes, especially if you think you'll be directly underneath it, because a small left or right crossrange variation by the capsule could put it on one side of the sky or the other for you.
Daytime flyovers are harder to spot due to the background sky, but with very clear skies, and some knowledge of which splashdown site they are targeting, you can know which way to look.
In general, your viewing location should be a spot where you can see as much sky as possible, but especially the southeastern sky. LOOK UP and scan the ENTIRE sky, looking for a slow streak moving across the sky (likely from the northwest to southeast, per discussion above). Even if you do spot it and it departs down below the southern horizon towards Florida, stick around for an extra two minutes because a sonic boom will "trail" the capsule. You can visualize the sonic boom as the capsule
dragging a cone behind it, and when that cone passes over you, well after the capsule has passed overhead, you'll hear the boom.
Regardless of the exact track, a sonic boom will definitely be audible if the capsule has descended far enough into the atmosphere, typically within 1000 miles of the splashdown site. So even if you have cloudy skies, you should be listening for the boom about 5-15 minutes before the planned splashdown time, depending on how far up-track you are from Florida. the boom will likely sound like a distant thud, like a explosion far away, and typically generates attention on social media -- and even
regular media. ("Uhhh, did you hear that?")
Typical timeline, referenced against splashdown time:
S minus 51 minutes: deorbit burn starts
S - 37 minutes: deorbit burn completes
S - 15 minutes: entry interface (capsule's first encounter with atmosphere)
S - 13-14 minutes: fireball / streak across sky starts (~1200 miles up-track)
S - 6-9 minutes: fireball / streak across sky ends (near Florida)
S - 4 minutes: drogue parachutes deploy
S - 3 minutes: main parachutes deploy
S - 0 minutes: splashdown 79:30
NASA will typically announce the planned splashdown time. You should then back that up by 10-15 minutes to estimate when the capsule will be flying over, then be outside and scanning the skies 5 minutes before that, especially if you are well up-track from Florida (e.g. in Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Georgia). If you are even further up-track (Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado) you should go outside a couple minutes sooner.
Resources: -
NASA TV on Youtube-
NASA Eyes on the Solar System (see guidance above)
The following Twitter feeds sometimes post a ground track with time markers:
-
NASA on Twitter (
TWstalker repeater )
-
Trevor Mahlmann on Twitter (
TWstalker repeater )
-
FlightClub.IO (Declan) on Twitter (
TWstalker repeater )
(the "TWstalker" links work even if you don't have a Twitter account, or aren't signed into Twitter)
(I will monitor this thread for a bit after creating it, and will edit any resources provided by others into this first post. Then during future Dragon returns, especially Crew Dragon, I'll come back here for reference but also to see if anyone's added anything more. - ChrisC)