Setting aside launch mishaps, is polonium-210 still a viable choice for thermal control of deep space missions in general and lunar-night survival in particular? It would seem to scale down pretty well....
I think the 138-day half-life rules it out for most purposes.
Unless you load *lead*-210 instead of polonium-210, which (beta) decays with a half-life of 22.2 years to bismuth-210, with a short beta 5-day half-life, leading to 210Po. No idea if that's feasible for a long-duration mission though.
Of course, a 138-day life (or longer, if the system is engineered to operate with under half the heating, which isn't crazy) is not bad for a lunar mission.
I wonder if this would be too complicated. You will have significant amounts of different metals with different decay properties, and the amounts are changing.
It is too complicated in practice, most probably, because nobody has really proposed it, the Soviet probes using 210Po RHUs did not even approach using the scheme (although to be fair they didn't need long heating lifetimes), and I firmly believe there are ample amounts of smarter people than me

However, the reason it is too complicated is not because the amounts are changing, or the metals have different decay properties. That's easily modelled analytically, as you can see in the attached figure. You are even almost ideally close to a secular equilibrium condition in which 210Pb is akin to an inexhaustible source continuously creating 210Po "heating elements" that get exhausted relatively quickly (1/60th as quickly as they are replenished, which is why you'd naively need 60x the amount of lead than the polonium you need to heat up the source).
What is surely more difficult to model is how the heating would be distributed within the lead mass, since 1 g of 210Po will heat to 500ºC at equilibrium due to the alpha particles getting stopped in the material bulk. Will the same be true for the lead bulk, will it actually reach higher temperatures due to the intervening beta decays, will it be less because of there being more material with different stopping powers and the polonium being evenly distributed? What's more: lead has a notoriously low melting point at 327.5ºC (which is why it's used for toy soldiers

), a whole 175ºC lower than the concentrated 210Po equilibrium temperature per gram. This would imply that, unless the last option above is true, the mixture would be in a liquid state. Not an insurmountable problem to have a few tens of grams of molten lead in your capsule, but an additional complication.
Purification of enriched 210Pb is quite possibly also not trivial, given the other long-lived isotopes of the metal around it, which still decay quite fast compared to the 210, but do lead off to other decay chains complicating the non-penetrating "gamma-free" nature of 210Po decay.
However, thanks to both you and sdsds for keeping up the discussion, which prompted me to dig around a bit more and find this paper:
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1524731 whose authors actually modelled and created precisely a 210Po generator from 210Pb for polonium generation away from expensive/slow accelerators. I feel more research into radiological contraptions would easily yield nifty results, but it's just sadly out of fashion given their perceived dangerousness.