NASA Artemis Programs:Lunar Landing Plans Are Progressing but Challenges RemainGAO-24-107249Published: Jan 17, 2024. Publicly Released: Jan 17, 2024. Jump To:Fast FactsNASA is making progress on its Artemis missions, including Artemis III, which will eventually land humans on the moon for the first time since 1972.We testified that:NASA has made progress on its test flights, including launching Artemis I in 2022Our prior work showed that Artemis III was unlikely to occur in 2025, and NASA recently adjusted the launch date to 2026NASA hasn't established an official cost estimate for Artemis III, so full mission costs aren't transparentNASA faces challenges managing its largest projects—including the ones related to the Artemis missions.Our prior recommendations are to help NASA manage its projects.HighlightsWhat GAO FoundNASA has made progress demonstrating key capabilities needed to support its Artemis missions:Artemis I, an uncrewed test flight, successfully launched in November 2022, which demonstrated the initial capability of the Space Launch System and Exploration Ground Systems.For Artemis II, the first flight with crew, NASA is currently conducting integration and testing of the crew capsule and the launch pad.NASA and its contractors continue to make progress on technologies supporting Artemis III, the first crewed lunar landing mission. For example, the human landing system contractor has conducted two test flights of its human landing system.Despite this progress, NASA still faces several challenges:Ambitious schedules. In November 2023 (GAO-24-106256), GAO found that the Artemis III lunar landing was unlikely to occur in December 2025, as planned, given delays and remaining technical work. In January 2024, NASA adjusted the launch date to September 2026 to allow contractors time to complete a significant amount of remaining complex work.Artemis III mission cost. In December 2019 (GAO-20-68), GAO found that NASA did not plan to establish an official cost estimate for this mission. NASA concurred with a GAO recommendation to establish one but has not yet done so. While NASA requested $6.8 billion to support Artemis III programs in its fiscal year 2024 budget request, decision-makers have limited knowledge into the full scope of Artemis III mission costs.Acquisition management. NASA's largest, most complex projects, including those that support the Artemis missions, continue to shape the agency's portfolio. When these projects exceed their cost baselines and require cost reserves to meet their funding needs, it has a cascading effect on other projects. NASA officials are exploring ways to better manage this project cost and schedule growth.Why GAO Did This StudyThe National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is committing billions of dollars to return humans to the lunar surface and initiate human exploration of Mars. The missions, known collectively as Artemis, involve the development and integration of multiple systems and programs.This testimony focuses on NASA's progress toward achieving the Artemis missions, as well as the challenges the agency faces in conducting them. This statement is based on past GAO reports on the Artemis enterprise and our annual assessment of NASA's major projects.RecommendationsGAO has made numerous recommendations to reduce NASA's acquisition risk and improve NASA's management of its portfolio of major projects, which includes projects supporting the Artemis missions. NASA has generally agreed with the recommendations and implemented changes in response to many of them. However, it needs to take additional actions to fully address all of them.As of May 2023, GAO identified six open recommendations related to Artemis as being a priority for implementation. For example, NASA concurred with our December 2019 recommendation to create a life-cycle cost estimate for the Artemis III mission but has not yet implemented it.
Artemis III mission costs. In December 2019, we found that NASA estimated that Artemis III may cost between $20 billion and $30 billion [emphasis added]... in February 2023, NASA officials stated that they are developing a methodology to provide Congress with an assessment of costs for each Artemis mission. NASA officials stated that the mission estimates will include the cost of hardware production, integration costs, and operations costs, but did they not provide a time frame for when this would be completed.
• SLS production costs. In September 2023, we found that NASA does not plan to measure production costs for the SLS program.12 Since SLS’s first launch for Artemis I in November 2022, NASA plans to spend billions of dollars to continue producing multiple SLS components—such as core stages and rocket engines—needed for future Artemis missions. These ongoing production costs are not captured in a cost baseline, which limits transparency and efforts to monitor the program’s long-term affordability. This is important because the production and other costs for the SLS program account for more than one-third of NASA’s budget request for programs required to return to the moon. For example, in the President’s budget submission for fiscal year 2024, NASA requested $6.8 billion for the five programs that will be required for Artemis III. The SLS program accounted for about $2.5 billion, or 37 percent of that request.
Jeez, Louise... from the report.... $20-30 billion with a “b” for Artemis III!?!?!...
Quote from: VSECOTSPE on 01/17/2024 03:31 pmJeez, Louise... from the report.... $20-30 billion with a “b” for Artemis III!?!?!...I hope you be able to recover from the shock, acquire the actual report, and do your usual excellent analysis?I'm stunned. It's hard to see how they get to even $20 billion for one mission unless they load everything into it. That would include the entire $2.9B for Starship HLS, which includes the uncrewed demo. Maybe Gateway is back in Artemis III now?
Jeez, Louise... from the report.... $20-30 billion with a “b” for Artemis III!?!?!...QuoteArtemis III mission costs. In December 2019, we found that NASA estimated that Artemis III may cost between $20 billion and $30 billion [emphasis added]... in February 2023, NASA officials stated that they are developing a methodology to provide Congress with an assessment of costs for each Artemis mission. NASA officials stated that the mission estimates will include the cost of hardware production, integration costs, and operations costs, but did they not provide a time frame for when this would be completed.I’m very curious how that estimate breaks down. I’m not sure the initial Lunar Starship contract and the suit contract added together exceed $2B. NASA must be counting most/all Orion/SLS/EGS spending between Artemis II and Artemis III against Artemis III. But unless they’re half a decade apart, I still don’t see how that adds up to $18-28B. Lawdy...
The NASA Administrator made a public statement that the Artemis III mission may cost between $20 billion and $30 billion, but NASA officials told us they do not plan to develop an official cost estimate for the Artemis III mission. A senior HEOMD official said that the agency developed a cost estimate that included costs for the lunar mission to 2028 to support budget submissions. However, the official said this life-cycle cost estimate included costs outside of the Artemis III mission, such as for missions later than Artemis III, and may not include integration and overall management costs. NASA officials told us that it is complicated to separate out costs for each mission and, as a result, do not plan to develop an Artemis III cost estimate. In addition, senior NASA officials stated that many of the programs needed to execute the mission are currently in the early stages of acquisition, and therefore NASA has limited cost information.
The $20-$30B wasn't just for Artemis III. Here is how it was explained in the 2019 GAO Report:Quote from: page 27 of the 2019 GAO ReportThe NASA Administrator made a public statement that the Artemis III mission may cost between $20 billion and $30 billion, but NASA officials told us they do not plan to develop an official cost estimate for the Artemis III mission. A senior HEOMD official said that the agency developed a cost estimate that included costs for the lunar mission to 2028 to support budget submissions. However, the official said this life-cycle cost estimate included costs outside of the Artemis III mission, such as for missions later than Artemis III, and may not include integration and overall management costs. NASA officials told us that it is complicated to separate out costs for each mission and, as a result, do not plan to develop an Artemis III cost estimate. In addition, senior NASA officials stated that many of the programs needed to execute the mission are currently in the early stages of acquisition, and therefore NASA has limited cost information.
Basically $20-30B (in 5 years) is Jim Bridenstine's original estimate for developing a lunar lander (it's the money needed on top of existing SLS/Orion spending)
