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#20
by
VLN
on 17 Jan, 2024 14:17
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And yet Scorpius has just left Port of Long Beach, passing the LB Light at Jan 17 1438 UTC = 6:38am PST.
I think they'll get to the recovery site around noon Friday PST. They would have to cruise more than 50% faster than usual to arrive there for the start of Thursday night's window. I don't think that's possible.
The "past track" shows they moved Scorpius back and forth across the Middle Harbor several times overnight, so they were scrambling to get back out to sea. They must see some opportunity that's worth putting their crews through all that.
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#21
by
realnouns
on 17 Jan, 2024 14:18
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Kimberly C (fka. Scorpius) + OCISLY (unclear if with ASDS) departed PoLB on Jan 17 @ 6:39am PT / 9:39am ET
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#22
by
catdlr
on 17 Jan, 2024 15:27
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Thanks, VLN and Realnouns, keep us posted.
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#23
by
catdlr
on 18 Jan, 2024 01:56
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A cancel-and-replace NGA Space Debris notice (effectively a Rocket Launching notice) for the postponement to the January 19 UTC, including two new backup days for the days removed.
Note that the time for January 19 has changed from 02:22 UTC to 04:00 UTC.
162121Z JAN 24
NAVAREA XII 16/24(21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
MEXICO.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
190400Z TO 190650Z, 200200Z TO 200628Z,
210200Z TO 210628Z, 220200Z TO 220628Z,
230200Z TO 230628Z, 240035Z TO 240503Z
AND 250014Z TO 250442Z JAN
IN AREA BOUND BY
29-09.00N 116-24.00W, 29-18.00N 116-43.00W,
30-31.00N 117-14.00W, 30-31.00N 117-13.00W,
30-17.00N 116-46.00W, 29-41.00N 116-04.00W,
29-23.00N 116-02.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 9/24.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 250642Z JAN 24.
This flight is no longer listed on the SpaceX web site. Any indication or change on your side?
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#24
by
zubenelgenubi
on 18 Jan, 2024 02:34
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This flight is no longer listed on the SpaceX web site. Any indication or change on your side?
Starlink 7-11 never was listed on the SpaceX website. They create a "watch" page on their website circa 24 hours, or less, before a scheduled launch.
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#25
by
Ken the Bin
on 18 Jan, 2024 04:03
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A cancel-and-replace NGA Space Debris notice (effectively a Rocket Launching notice) for the postponement to the January 19 UTC, including two new backup days for the days removed.
Note that the time for January 19 has changed from 02:22 UTC to 04:00 UTC.
162121Z JAN 24
NAVAREA XII 16/24(21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
MEXICO.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
190400Z TO 190650Z, 200200Z TO 200628Z,
210200Z TO 210628Z, 220200Z TO 220628Z,
230200Z TO 230628Z, 240035Z TO 240503Z
AND 250014Z TO 250442Z JAN
IN AREA BOUND BY
29-09.00N 116-24.00W, 29-18.00N 116-43.00W,
30-31.00N 117-14.00W, 30-31.00N 117-13.00W,
30-17.00N 116-46.00W, 29-41.00N 116-04.00W,
29-23.00N 116-02.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 9/24.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 250642Z JAN 24.
This flight is no longer listed on the SpaceX web site. Any indication or change on your side?
As zubenelgenubi said, this launch was never listed. So far I haven't seen any updates to indicate a postponement, but neither have I seen anything to indicate that it is taking place. Not only is there no mission webpage yet, but there's also nothing on CelesTrak yet.
But there is plenty of time yet for both.
Because launches out of Vandy don't get TFRs nor publicly-posted weather forecasts, there's less to work with than for launches out of the cape. 🙁
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#26
by
catdlr
on 18 Jan, 2024 05:24
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Thanks, Ken and zubenelgenubi,
Tomorrow night is the last availability to launch before a series of cold fronts are to descend into the Southern California area. Rain starts Friday around 10 a.m. local time and moves out perhaps next Wednesday.
Tony
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#27
by
VLN
on 18 Jan, 2024 14:17
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Well, on the one hand, I was wrong-- it was not impossible for Scorpius/OCISLY and Go Beyond to get in place in time.
Last night, I checked on the current positions of both, and extrapolated forward to the times at landing positions. My new prediction for Scorpius' arrival time was Jan 18 about 4:30pm PST. There's even a little time to unhook the drone ship from the tug and get some separation. So the minimum time from PoLB to the Group 7 recovery zone is about 1.4 days...when they really mean it.
But on the other hand, Tony may be right about the weather. Now this may be just an artifact of MarineTraffic.com when non-satellite telemetry is getting spotty, but Go Beyond and Scorpius both report they're headed north (heading 16 deg) at speed. At least that's what they were reporting for a few hours... while the "past track" information showed both ships making progress on the original heading, toward the landing zone. Sheesh.
If in fact they both kept going unabated, they'll probably be in place on time. If the 16 deg heading is correct, they won't.
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#28
by
realnouns
on 18 Jan, 2024 15:22
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Go Beyond (fka. Go Crusader) departed PoLB on Jan 17 @ 12:40pm PT / 3:40pm ET
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#29
by
Ken the Bin
on 18 Jan, 2024 17:03
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Primary launch date/time is 2024-01-19 04:04:30 UTC per the information that CelesTrak received from SpaceX.
https://twitter.com/TSKelso/status/1748039475480166413CelesTrak has pre-launch SupGP data for the #Starlink Group 7-11 launch from Vandenberg SFB on 2024-01-19 at 04:04:30 UTC: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g7-11. Deployment of 22 satellites at 05:07:17.040 UTC. Data for 7 backup launch opportunities also provided: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/.
https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/Launch: 2024-01-19 04:04:30 UTC. Deployment: 2024-01-19 05:07:17.040 UTC.
Launch: 2024-01-19 04:08:30 UTC. Deployment: 2024-01-19 05:11:17.040 UTC.
Launch: 2024-01-19 04:12:30 UTC. Deployment: 2024-01-19 05:15:17.040 UTC.
Launch: 2024-01-19 04:16:30 UTC. Deployment: 2024-01-19 05:19:17.040 UTC.
Launch: 2024-01-19 04:20:30 UTC. Deployment: 2024-01-19 05:23:17.040 UTC.
Launch: 2024-01-19 04:24:30 UTC. Deployment: 2024-01-19 05:27:17.040 UTC.
Launch: 2024-01-19 04:30:30 UTC. Deployment: 2024-01-19 05:33:17.040 UTC.
Launch: 2024-01-19 04:55:10 UTC. Deployment: 2024-01-19 05:57:57.040 UTC.
It seems likely that there are additional launch opportunities beyond these.
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#30
by
catdlr
on 18 Jan, 2024 17:43
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The weather is not looking too promising for an 8 p.m. Local time launch; 20% chance of rain starting at 10 a.m. local going up to 70% by launch time. The next weather opportunity is Tuesday.
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#31
by
catdlr
on 18 Jan, 2024 17:50
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Just to add to the above:
Potential cut-off low from the first weather system, the second system has the potential of bringing up a river of moisture from the warm tropical mid-Pacific region. The good news is the weather at the landing site is mild sitting in the center of a High Pressure dome.
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#32
by
zubenelgenubi
on 18 Jan, 2024 21:11
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We should receive news, launch or delay, soon. I expect SpaceX social media is focused on the successful Axiom-3 launch, first of the two bi-coastal Falcon 9 launches today (EST and PST).
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#33
by
catdlr
on 18 Jan, 2024 23:37
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#34
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 18 Jan, 2024 23:38
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https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-7-11SpaceX is targeting Thursday, January 18 for a Falcon 9 launch of 22 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 8:04 p.m. PT, with backup opportunities available until 10:05 p.m. PT. If needed, additional opportunities are also available on Friday, January 19 starting at 6:15 p.m. PT.
A live webcast of this mission will begin on X @SpaceX about five minutes prior to liftoff. Watch live.
This is the 16th flight for the first stage booster supporting this mission, which previously launched Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, DART, Transporter-7, Iridium OneWeb, SDA-0B, and 10 Starlink missions. (=B1063-16) Following stage separation, the first stage will land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship, which will be stationed in the Pacific Ocean.
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#35
by
catdlr
on 18 Jan, 2024 23:39
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#36
by
catdlr
on 18 Jan, 2024 23:48
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Quick weather update. Increasing Cloudiness, with a chance of launches, rain starting tomorrow at 10 a.m. 20 %, but none for tonight. Surface Winds are mild at launch and landing.
Attachments:
Current weather VSFB
Detail forecast
Winds at VSFB - winds from the SSW
Winds at the Landing site - Winds from the NW
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#37
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 19 Jan, 2024 01:05
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#38
by
Targeteer
on 19 Jan, 2024 01:11
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cross post from Axiom 3 thread
Hawthorne reports crew may be able to see Starlink launch from Vandenberg at 0404Z
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#39
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 19 Jan, 2024 02:26
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T-38 minutes. The SpaceX launch director should be verifying go to start propellant loading.