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#120
by
edkyle99
on 21 Jan, 2024 15:34
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Are these scrubs due to winds? Surely Falcon 9 can be launched when it is just raining.
- Ed Kyle
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#121
by
GewoonLukas_
on 21 Jan, 2024 16:13
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Are these scrubs due to winds? Surely Falcon 9 can be launched when it is just raining.
- Ed Kyle
Flight through precipitation is not allowed (at least on the East Coast, not sure about the West Coast)
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#122
by
Ron Lee
on 21 Jan, 2024 18:42
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As of 241 PM EST on 21 January 2024, the SpaceX website says this about Starlink 7-11:
"SpaceX is targeting Sunday, January 21 for a Falcon 9 launch of 22 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 6:00 p.m. PT, with backup opportunities available until 10:00 p.m. PT."
There is no mention of launch opportunities on the following day.
Update: It is there now.
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#123
by
catdlr
on 21 Jan, 2024 18:50
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As of 241 PM EST on 21 January 2024, the SpaceX website says this about Starlink 7-11:
"SpaceX is targeting Sunday, January 21 for a Falcon 9 launch of 22 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 6:00 p.m. PT, with backup opportunities available until 10:00 p.m. PT."
There is no mention of launch opportunities on the following day.
Based on the information provided, it seems that there is a larger storm system approaching the area around 10 pm. There may be light showers before that. SpaceX has targeted the liftoff for 6:00 p.m. PT, so they might be able to launch before the storm if they take the first few launch opportunities. Let's keep our fingers crossed for a successful launch!
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#124
by
catdlr
on 21 Jan, 2024 19:09
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Hi, Hope everyone is enjoying your Sunday.
The following video is a two-day precipitation loop starting from Saturday at 6 p.m. local time through Monday at 11:59 p.m. using the European model.
As you can see on Saturday rain fell on VSFB during all Launch opportunities and then rain let up right after that (too bad). Another system proceeded overnight.
Currently, it is clear and sunny with moderate winds. As the evening approaches for today's launch, the loop goes into predictive mode, and as you can see, there is an intense storm system approaching the coast. As the video plays out, the storm once again reaches the VSFB in the late evening hours around 11 pm. with perhaps light rain preceding that.
A 6 p.m. launch opportunity stated on the SpaceX website may allow a small chance of getting the launch to proceed. Later launch opportunities will have diminishing probabilities as the storm approaches.
If tonight's launch is delayed again due to weather concerns, Monday's outlook is promising as the rain systems have moved off to the east. The storm front passes over VSFB at 6 a.m. Monday as indicated by the wind direction change. Winds, as usual for the West Coast, change direction (coming down from the North) and with high intensities (we affectionately call it the Blow Dry period after the storm). Surface winds are moderate at 10-20 knots, but the wind shear and aloft are the more pressing for Max-Q considerations.
I'll provide the detailed forecast from the NWS about 3 hours before the first launch opportunity. Due to religious commitments, I'll be away for the launch.
The information pointer at the center of the screen is the approximate location of the launch pad and is updated as the loop progresses. Lopp time is indicated at the bottom.
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#125
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 21 Jan, 2024 20:56
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PDF of updated press kit.
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#126
by
catdlr
on 21 Jan, 2024 21:09
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#127
by
catdlr
on 21 Jan, 2024 21:16
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Weather Update:
Currently at VSFB:
Partly Cloudy, 66°F (19°C)
Detail forecast:
This Afternoon:
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. South-southeast wind around 15 mph. New precipitation amounts to less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight:
A chance of showers, then rain, and possibly a thunderstorm after 10 pm. Low around 56. Breezy, with a southeast wind of 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. The chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Landing Zone Marine Forcast:
Marine Zone Forecast
Today:
W to NW winds 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in W to NW swell. Period 14 seconds.
Tonight:
Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming S to SW 10 kt late. Seas 6 to 8 ft in W to NW swell. Period 13 seconds.
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#128
by
Perchlorate
on 21 Jan, 2024 22:44
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#129
by
catdlr
on 21 Jan, 2024 23:05
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By no means trying to sharpshoot my bulldozer-salesman, left-coast buddy Tony. His weather posts are great.
I just wanted to share my preference for the graphical forecasts on the NWS site, www.weather.gov, or more specifically for this situation, https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.6405&lon=-120.4579&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical.
The hour-by-hour format seems more granular and appeals to my engineering geekitude.
Hey, Thanks, Pete.
You are right, many are not into talking heads, but given a chart/graph/spreadsheet, they will drop their remotes and take a gander. I update my presentation probably with the next flight.
I have to leave for personal reasons in 30 min. Your chart will do for now. If you want to give updates as the night progresses, feel free to join in and enjoy.
Good luck to everyone, and SpaceX, light your fire and kick butt.
Tony
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#130
by
crandles57
on 21 Jan, 2024 23:39
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Webcast starting 3:54Z, There is a backup launch opportunity at 04:04 but perhaps they are going for one of the unlisted ones.
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#131
by
Perchlorate
on 22 Jan, 2024 00:07
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By no means trying to sharpshoot my bulldozer-salesman, left-coast buddy Tony. His weather posts are great.
I just wanted to share my preference for the graphical forecasts on the NWS site, www.weather.gov, or more specifically for this situation, https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.6405&lon=-120.4579&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical.
The hour-by-hour format seems more granular and appeals to my engineering geekitude.
Hey, Thanks, Pete.
You are right, many are not into talking heads, but given a chart/graph/spreadsheet, they will drop their remotes and take a gander. I update my presentation probably with the next flight.
I have to leave for personal reasons in 30 min. Your chart will do for now. If you want to give updates as the night progresses, feel free to join in and enjoy.
Good luck to everyone, and SpaceX, light your fire and kick butt.
Tony
Also looked at Weather Channel's future radar; images below at 1-hour intervals. 10 pm PT = 2 pm UTC may be too late, as the line of bad weather is shown to be arriving at the launch site by then. 6 pm PT to 8 or 9 PT looks possible; of course, no idea about upper-level winds.
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#132
by
Ken the Bin
on 22 Jan, 2024 00:18
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The SpaceX mission webpage now says 02:25 UTC (18:25 PST), which is not one of the listed times. Backup opportunities now only through 03:00 UTC (19:00 PST). The times on the CelesTrak website have not changed.
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-7-11SpaceX is targeting Sunday, January 21 for a Falcon 9 launch of 22 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 6:25 p.m. PT, with backup opportunities available until 7:00 p.m. PT. If needed, additional opportunities are available starting Monday, January 22 at 6:01 p.m. PT.
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#133
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 22 Jan, 2024 00:47
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New launch time of 02:59 UTC.
"SpaceX is targeting Sunday, January 21 for a Falcon 9 launch of 22 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 6:59 p.m. PT. If needed, additional opportunities are available starting Monday, January 22 at 6:01 p.m. PT."
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#134
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 22 Jan, 2024 01:21
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T-38 minutes. The SpaceX launch director should be verifying go to start propellant loading.
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#135
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 22 Jan, 2024 01:24
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T-35 minutes. First stage LOX loading and first and second stage RP-1 loading should be starting about now.
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#136
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 22 Jan, 2024 01:37
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#137
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 22 Jan, 2024 01:40
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#138
by
Ken the Bin
on 22 Jan, 2024 01:42
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Wednesday, January 24 at 00:35 UTC (Tuesday, January 23 at 16:35 PST).
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-7-11SpaceX is targeting Tuesday, January 23 for a Falcon 9 launch of 22 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 4:35 p.m. PT.
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#139
by
ZachS09
on 22 Jan, 2024 02:00
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That's #4 now.