US Smallsat Launchers 2023

[ringsider]

Electron is successful numerically, but doesn't yet break even financially does it?

That of course doesn't account for fixed costs like SG&A, let alone the original R&D that went into Electron

You often read on this forum that companies have to worry about recovering the original R&D costs, but this is not correct in the startup / VC world.

Think about it from the point of view of who invested in the R&D and thus who should be paid back. If you think about it like this, it becomes obvious that none of the VCs backing early stage rocket firms cares about recovering the R&D investments they made via revenue/earnings.

They invested in equity and expect to recover their investment by rapid appreciation of the value of that equity, specifically on an exit event such as a trade sale, SPAC or IPO.

As long as the equity value appreciates,  the company has returned the investment in the way it really matters.

There is still an accounting item showing a loss on the balance sheet, but it's irrelevant to the reality of the cash investment, which for Rocket Lab already paid off handsomely.

This leads to a misunderstanding, as it looks like the company has a big net loss on that project. And technically it does. But in reality its just an accounting item, it has no real meaning. The investors got paid back when the company was sold.

[ZachF]

Makes me wonder why when it comes to China.  If there is no market, why?

The best reason to build small launchers may be as a warm-up exercise to train and test companies before you give them a bigger budget to build a bigger launcher. That's what Falcon 1 and Terran 1 ended up being used for and may be what China is up to. That may also be why Europe is building several small launchers.

This.

Plus I get the feeling that the Chinese solid fueled smallsat launchers are mostly just disguised/laundered ICBM tests.

[Steven Pietrobon]

"Our primary long-term competition is in China" - Elon Musk from 2012

As long as Western satellites are banned from using Chinese launch vehicles, there is no competition with China.

[Zed_Noir]

"Our primary long-term competition is in China" - Elon Musk from 2012

As long as Western satellites are banned from using Chinese launch vehicles, there is no competition with China.

Then China will just sell their satellite along with the launcher with a lower price point as a package deal with low interest Chinese financing. An attractive offer to countries with limited budget.

China will gain market share with low or negative profit per satellite and launcher package deal. Western satellite manufacturers will have to compete within a lower price ceiling market.

[edkyle99]

With so many of China's small launch vehicles using what appear to be mobile launchers, or at least mobile equipment that allows relatively quick launch set up, I'm thinking that the driver for these systems may be quick response orbital launch that is also hard to "target" in the event of a conflict.  The US has nothing similar right now.

 - Ed Kyle

[PM3]

With so many of China's small launchers using what appear to be mobile launchers, or at least mobile equipment that allows relatively quick launch set up, I'm thinking that the driver for these systems may be quick response orbital launch that is also hard to "target" in the event of a conflict.  The US has nothing similar right now.

 - Ed Kyle

Minotaur should be able to do that, but I assume you didn't mention it because it is not really prepared for mobile launch?

Astra, ABL, Virgin and Vector went for the responsive & mobile launch market. Two dead, one nearly out of business, but ABL can make it.

[TheKutKu]

"Our primary long-term competition is in China" - Elon Musk from 2012

As long as Western satellites are banned from using Chinese launch vehicles, there is no competition with China.

Because there was no competition in Space between the US and USSR?

SpaceX making and enabling new and larger space infrastructures, quicker space-based civilian and military communication, larger military satellites, and maybe - why not? - down the line, Point to point transport or moon transportation, absolutely force chinese companies and agencies to compete for strategic reasons, and the other way around.

[thespacecow]

With so many of China's small launch vehicles using what appear to be mobile launchers, or at least mobile equipment that allows relatively quick launch set up, I'm thinking that the driver for these systems may be quick response orbital launch that is also hard to "target" in the event of a conflict.  The US has nothing similar right now.

If Vandenberg, Cape Canaveral, Wallops and Boca Chica all got taken out in a conflict, then the US has much bigger problems than not being able to launch.

Besides, a responsive orbital launch needs responsive payloads, currently there is credible plan to build these payloads.

[edkyle99]

With so many of China's small launchers using what appear to be mobile launchers, or at least mobile equipment that allows relatively quick launch set up, I'm thinking that the driver for these systems may be quick response orbital launch that is also hard to "target" in the event of a conflict.  The US has nothing similar right now.

 - Ed Kyle

Minotaur should be able to do that, but I assume you didn't mention it because it is not really prepared for mobile launch?

All of the Minotaur versions have only done fixed site launches, involving gantries and cranes and days or weeks of set up.  They don't have a mobile option because the Minuteman and MX missiles they are based on were not mobile-launched.   Closest the US came was Midgetman, which was never deployed.

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

If Vandenberg, Cape Canaveral, Wallops and Boca Chica all got taken out in a conflict, then the US has much bigger problems than not being able to launch.

They probably don't have to be "taken out".  Their use just needs to be denied or degraded.  Look what's happened to Red Sea/Suez Canal shipping in the past few weeks - against ships that aren't even at war.

 - Ed Kyle

[Danderman]

The key for commercial space is cheap launch. Until someone develops a robust reusable system, the market is just going to remain small, and companies are going to eat their seed corn and die.

Even a partially reusable system would be useful - a Falcon 1 class reusable system for smallsats would be great.

[TrevorMonty]

The key for commercial space is cheap launch. Until someone develops a robust reusable system, the market is just going to remain small, and companies are going to eat their seed corn and die.

Even a partially reusable system would be useful - a Falcon 1 class reusable system for smallsats would be great.

It's not lack of demand that is causing small LV providers to fail but lack of execution and cash. VO had paying customer they just failed to execute reliably then ran out of money. Astra isn't much different and likely to go same way. Firefly and ABL are still struggling with execution.

Electron has +20 missions to fly in 2024 so demand is there.

[deltaV]

Even a partially reusable system would be useful - a Falcon 1 class reusable system for smallsats would be great.

PLD Space's Miura 5, MaiaSpace's Maia, Rocket Lab's Electron and Stoke Space's Nova are all planned to be partially or fully reusable. Many of these startups will probably fail but someone will surely succeed at making a reusable launcher for small payloads.

[Danderman]

It would be interesting to see a fully reusable Electron.

[Zed_Noir]

It would be interesting to see a fully reusable Electron.

Recovering the upper stage while retaining useful payload capacity don't seem to go together with something in Electron's size.

Of course if just launching a 1U to 5U cubesat on something like the Electron. Then probably the upper stage can be recovered. Don't think it is worthwhile to recovered the payload fairing, if there is one.

However there are likely few customer that wants to pay for the entire cost a fully recoverable Electron class launcher to launch a small cubesat. When there is the cheaper rideshare alternative.

AIUI the savings in launch cost isn't that much different between an expandable and a reusable launcher in Electron's class, with much of the launch cost consists of people, payload processing and ground support infrastructure.