NAVAREA XIX 167/23BARENTS SEA1.AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATIONDUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL21 TO 25 DEC DAILY FROM 0800 TO 1000 UTC.A. 76-30.0N 022-00.0EB. 75-20.0N 024-40.0EC. 74-50.0N 021-40.0ED. 75-50.0N 018-40.0EE. 76-30.0N 022-00.0E2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 251100 DEC 23
-Razdan (14F156) N°2 (fairly unlikely because the first one is still undergoing in-orbit check-outs)
Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 12/17/2023 10:49 am-Razdan (14F156) N°2 (fairly unlikely because the first one is still undergoing in-orbit check-outs)Maybe we should rather write "because the first one may be undergoing in-orbit check-outs"...
What I meant was that we are still not sure that this bird is Razdan !
For what it's worth: a usually reliable source on a Russian spaceflight forum says the upcoming Soyuz-2 launch (set for Dec 21-25) will carry a "cartographer" and the one after that (Dec 27-31) a "Death Star", adding that the first one will "shoot pictures" (or at least that's how I interpret the verb he uses) and the second one will "destroy". Sounds like a Bars-M (a topographic mapping satellite) and something like Nivelir/Burevestnik or the like, but it's dangerous to read too much into cryptic language like this. As usual, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
Preliminary orbit from Robert Christy's website. http://orbitalfocus.uk/Diaries/Launches/Launches.php?year=2023Co-planar with Kosmos-2556 (Bars-M nr. 3), same apogee. Looks like they will be working together, but the new satellite itself most likely is not a Bars. Otherwise they would have used the Soyuz-2-1a.
TSKelso: CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-201) of COSMOS 2573 atop a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk on Dec 21 at 0848 UTC: russianspaceweb.com/spacecraft-mil…. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-201
Sometimes (but admittedly quite rarely) such launch vehicle type switches have happened. E.g the 5th Meridian satellite was launched on a Soyuz-2-1b Fregat, while all others use Soyuz-2-1a Fregat launch vehicles. IIRC, in the Meridian case the original Soyuz-2-1a became unavailable (damaged?), so a Soyuz-2-1b earmarked for a GLONASS was repurposed.So i think it is too early to rule out a Bars-M.