Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1a - Kosmos-2573 (Bars-M No. 5) - Plesetsk - December 21, 2023 (08:48 UTC)  (Read 19566 times)

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Quote
NAVAREA XIX 167/23
BARENTS SEA
1.AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION
DUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL
21 TO 25 DEC DAILY FROM 0800 TO 1000 UTC.

A. 76-30.0N 022-00.0E
B. 75-20.0N 024-40.0E
C. 74-50.0N 021-40.0E
D. 75-50.0N 018-40.0E
E. 76-30.0N 022-00.0E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 251100 DEC 23

This is the impact zone for the core stage of the Soyuz-2-1a/b in the Barents Sea, pointing to a launch into polar orbit. Possible payloads:
-Bars-M (14F148) N°5
-a trio of small reconnaissance satellites built by VNIIEM (Razbeg?)
-Razdan (14F156) N°2 (fairly unlikely because the first one is still undergoing in-orbit check-outs)

There also appears to be a NOTAM for a Soyuz-2-1v launch from Plesetsk between December 27 and 31 (window 06.00-08.00 UTC). See Nicolas Pillet's latest post in the Russian space launches updates thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.2520
I won't start a thread on that one until the NOTAM becomes available. 
« Last Edit: 12/21/2023 12:16 pm by Galactic Penguin SST »

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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-Razdan (14F156) N°2 (fairly unlikely because the first one is still undergoing in-orbit check-outs)

Maybe we should rather write "because the first one may be undergoing in-orbit check-outs"...
Nicolas PILLET
Kosmonavtika : The French site on Russian Space

Offline B. Hendrickx

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-Razdan (14F156) N°2 (fairly unlikely because the first one is still undergoing in-orbit check-outs)

Maybe we should rather write "because the first one may be undergoing in-orbit check-outs"...

Past experience shows that this phase of the mission (known in Russian as "lyotnye ispytaniya" or "flight tests") usually takes at least several months. This is not likely to be any different for a totally new satellite like Razdan. But you're right, you never know for sure...

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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What I meant was that we are still not sure that this bird is Razdan ! :D
Nicolas PILLET
Kosmonavtika : The French site on Russian Space

Offline B. Hendrickx

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What I meant was that we are still not sure that this bird is Razdan ! :D

That's true, but as I explained in the Kosmos-2571 thread, there are numerous signs suggesting it is:

-the fact that Kosmos-2571 was launched into a 300 km orbit by the Soyuz-2-1b implies it has a mass of between 6 and 7 tons
-there is evidence that (the first-generation) Razdan bears a strong resemblance to Resurs-PM (which is in that mass range)
-the payload fairing ordered for Resurs-PM was also used by Kosmos-2571 (and it is a pretty unusual fairing for the Soyuz-2-1b)

Let's also not forget that Razdan is a project that was started in 2014 and that in 2016 the first satellite was scheduled for launch in 2019/2020, so it was long overdue.

In short, Razdan is the only satellite that fits the bill. If Kosmos-2571 is not Razdan, it must belong to a project that the Russians have managed to keep totally secret, something they haven't exactly excelled at.   






Offline Galactic Penguin SST

A7161/23 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7540N02149E051
A) ENOB B) 2312210800 C) 2312251000
D) DAILY 0800-1000
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA DEC23' ACTIVATED. PSN
763000N 0220000E - 752000N 0244000E - 745000N 0214000E - 755000N
0184000E - (763000N 0220000E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES.
SIMILAR ACTIVITIES ARE ALSO PLANNED WITHIN THE UNALLOCATED
INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE IN PSN 705600N 0320500E - 701000N 0320500E -
700928N 0320152E - 701500N 0315000E - 703007N 0315000E - 703622N
0314318E - (705600N 0320500E)
F) GND G) UNL
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Copied from the thread on the Soyuz-2-1v launch set for Dec 27-31.

Quote
For what it's worth: a usually reliable source on a Russian spaceflight forum says the upcoming Soyuz-2 launch (set for Dec 21-25) will carry a "cartographer" and the one after that (Dec 27-31) a "Death Star", adding that the first one will "shoot pictures" (or at least that's how I interpret the verb he uses) and the second one will "destroy". Sounds like a Bars-M (a topographic mapping satellite) and something like Nivelir/Burevestnik or the like, but it's dangerous to read too much into cryptic language like this. As usual, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Offline Alter Sachse

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https://tass.ru/kosmos/19598123

MOSCOW, December 21. /TASS/. The Russian Air and Space Forces (AFS) has launched a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. It will put into orbit a satellite in the interests of the Russian Defense Ministry, the military department said.

"On Thursday, December 21, at 11:48 Moscow time from the State Test Cosmodrome of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (Plesetsk Cosmodrome) in the Arkhangelsk region, the combat crews of the Space Forces of the All-Union Space Forces conducted a launch of a medium-class Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle with a spacecraft in the interests of the Russian Defense Ministry," the statement said.



= 08:48 UTC
« Last Edit: 12/21/2023 06:04 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline Satori

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Usually, Bars-M are launched using Soyuz-2.1a, but they launched a Soyuz-2.1b, so let's see the orbit.

Offline Satori

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Launch images from Russian MoD...

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Preliminary orbit from Robert Christy's website.
http://orbitalfocus.uk/Diaries/Launches/Launches.php?year=2023

Co-planar with Kosmos-2556 (Bars-M nr. 3), same apogee. Looks like they will be working together, but the new satellite itself most likely is not a Bars. Otherwise they would have used the Soyuz-2-1a.


Offline Alter Sachse

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Looks like LC 43/4

08:48:39
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Offline Skyrocket

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Preliminary orbit from Robert Christy's website.
http://orbitalfocus.uk/Diaries/Launches/Launches.php?year=2023

Co-planar with Kosmos-2556 (Bars-M nr. 3), same apogee. Looks like they will be working together, but the new satellite itself most likely is not a Bars. Otherwise they would have used the Soyuz-2-1a.

Sometimes (but admittedly quite rarely) such launch vehicle type switches have happened. E.g the 5th Meridian satellite was launched on a Soyuz-2-1b Fregat, while all others use Soyuz-2-1a Fregat launch vehicles. IIRC, in the Meridian case the original Soyuz-2-1a became unavailable (damaged?), so a Soyuz-2-1b earmarked for a GLONASS was repurposed.

So i think it is too early to rule out a Bars-M.

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

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Offline Satori

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Quoting from the next Jonathan's Space Report...

"Kosmos-2570 et al
------------------

Object D, ejected from the Kosmos-2570 launch on Nov 23, has manuevered,
so is presumably a payload like object C. Russia will likely registered
them with the UN as Kosmos satellites, but until then we just have to
guess; I am calling C Kosmos-2571 and D Kosmos-2573."

So, this one might be Kosmos-2574.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/celestrak/status/1737898279843565906

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TSKelso: CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-201) of COSMOS 2573 atop a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk on Dec 21 at 0848 UTC: russianspaceweb.com/spacecraft-mil…. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-201

Online catdlr

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YouTube version of Official Video from the Space Devs

It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline SpaceFinnOriginal

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Soyuz serial number known?

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Sometimes (but admittedly quite rarely) such launch vehicle type switches have happened. E.g the 5th Meridian satellite was launched on a Soyuz-2-1b Fregat, while all others use Soyuz-2-1a Fregat launch vehicles. IIRC, in the Meridian case the original Soyuz-2-1a became unavailable (damaged?), so a Soyuz-2-1b earmarked for a GLONASS was repurposed.

So i think it is too early to rule out a Bars-M.

You’re absolutely right, I jumped the gun by ruling out Bars-M on the basis of the launch vehicle. Upon closer analysis, there are several reasons to believe that the satellite placed into orbit today is indeed Bars-M/14F148 N°5:

-a usually reliable source on a Russian spaceflight forum identified it as a “cartographer” (see my earlier post in this thread)
-the perigee and apogee of the initial orbit are virtually identical to those of Bars-M N°4 (Kosmos-2567), launched last March.
-the payload fairing is the same one used by earlier Bars-M satellites (and an unusual one for the Soyuz-2.1b)
-it was placed into the same orbital plane as Bars-M N°3 (Kosmos-2556), launched in May 2022.

The fact that it is in the same orbital plane as Kosmos-2556 is a strong sign that the latter has failed and that the new satellite serves as a replacement. Kosmos-2556 significantly lowered its orbit in July 2022 (from about 560 to 500 km), presumably as a result of a decision to operate these satellites at lower altitudes in order to improve their resolution (possibly related to the war in Ukraine). After that it performed one more (minor) orbit correction in October 2022, but it has shown no signs of life since (as a reminder, Bars-M N°1 and 2 were also short-lived satellites). Kosmos-2567, on the other hand, performed a burn as recently as this October.

So why did it fly on a Soyuz-2.1b? One possibility is that there was an urgent need to replace the failed satellite and that it was therefore decided to use the first available booster. Or perhaps the booster was repurposed for other reasons, such as the ones mentioned by Skyrocket.

Another possibility is that this satellite is heavier than its predecessors. As is known from various court documents, the Bars-M satellites had to undergo modifications as a result of Western-imposed sanctions that complicated the delivery of electronic parts. RKTs Progress, the prime contractor, received a contract from the Ministry of Defense for this modification work in March 2016 under the code name “Matritsa” (matrix). All four Bars-M satellites ordered by the MoD in August 2014 (serial numbers 3, 4, 5 and 6) would be subject to those modifications. For more details on Matritsa and the delays it caused in the Bars-M project, see the latest post in the Kosmos-2556 thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45866.40

What is clear from those documents is that Matritsa was to be carried out in various stages, not all of which were completed by the time satellite nr. 3 was launched in May 2022. For instance, it would seem that work to modify the optical payload (named Karat or 14V333, developed by LOMO in St.-Petersburg) had not yet been completely finished by late 2022. Since the modifications are being introduced incrementally, it is possible that the satellites have become progressively heavier. Still, it is questionable that the changes were so significant that they required the switch to a more powerful launch vehicle. The other possible reasons given here for that switch look more likely.

If this Kosmos is indeed the fifth Bars-M, we should see it gradually circularize its orbit over the next few days. The previous satellite, Kosmos-2567, completed this process in slightly over a week.

Offline Alter Sachse

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A large number of Soyuz 2.1b were ordered.
Soyuz 2.1a mostly for civilian launches.
I suspect that a Soyuz 2.1b was used, before the warranty ended.
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

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