Author Topic: Kosmos-2571 (??) - Soyuz-2.1b - Plesetsk 43/4 - Nov 25 2023 (20:58:06 UTC)  (Read 4572 times)

Offline russianhalo117

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Cross post regarding a potential upcoming Bars-M launch towards the end of November 2023:
https://twitter.com/M51_4ever/status/1725256226739757131
« Last Edit: 11/26/2023 04:53 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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As far as I understand, we have no confirmation that it is a Soyuz-2 launch. It could be an Angara launch too, but I don't know if the drop zones match this hypothesis...
Nicolas PILLET
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Offline Alter Sachse

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There was an announcement for an Angara 1.2 in November with 6 Rodnik.
But the orbit inclination would not fit or would have been changed for the new satellites.
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Here is the NOTAM:

Quote
NAVAREA XIX 156/23
BARENTS SEA
1.AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION
DUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL
23 TO 27 NOV DAILY FROM 2000 TO 2230 UTC

A. 76-30.0N 022-00.0E
B. 75-20.0N 024-40.0E
C. 74-50.0N 021-40.0E
D. 75-50.0N 018-40.0E
E. 76-30.0N 022-00.0E

2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 272230 NOV 23

These coordinates are indeed identical to those for preceding Bars-M launches (they're for core stage impact). The length of the launch window (2.5 hours) is also the same. So Bars-M (14F148) nr. 5 definitely is the most likely payload. This is the third of a batch of four Bars-M satellites (serial numbers 3 to 6) ordered in 2014. No further orders are known to have been placed.

Other military imaging satellites still awaiting launch are a trio of small VNIIEM satellites (probably Razbeg) and the big Razdan spy satellite of RKTs Progress. All of these are long overdue. 

Offline Alter Sachse

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An unusual launch time for an optical satellite...
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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An unusual launch time for an optical satellite...

The two currently operational Bars-M satellites (Kosmos-2556 and 2567) have passes over Plesetsk tomorrow around 21.45 and 21.15 UTC. Their orbital planes are separated by about 25°. Assuming there will be a similar spacing for the orbital plane of the next one, the announced 20.00-22.30 UTC launch window makes sense for a Bars-M launch.

The Russian Ministry of Defense today published a NOTAM for first stage impact in the Barents Sea. That also is the same as for earlier Bars-M launches. So everything points in the direction of Bars-M N°5, but we love to be surprised:-)

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Insider claims that the launch is on November 25 (allowed by the marine navigation warnings and NOTAMs, the later listed below) AND the payload is not Bars.

Related air space closure notices:

A6737/23 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7540N02149E051
A) ENOB B) 2311232000 C) 2311272230
D) DAILY 2000-2230
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA NOV23' ACTIVATED. PSN
763000N 0220000E - 752000N 0244000E - 745000N 0214000E - 755000N
0184000E - (763000N 0220000E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES.
SIMILAR ACTIVITIES ARE ALSO PLANNED WITHIN THE UNALLOCATED
INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE IN PSN 705600N 0320500E - 701000N 0320500E -
700928N 0320152E - 701500N 0315000E - 703007N 0315000E - 703622N
0314318E - (705600N 0320500E).
F) GND G) UNL


A6781/23 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7540N02149E051
A) ENOB B) 2311282000 C) 2311302230
D) DAILY 2000-2230
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA  'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA NOV23'  ACTIVATED. PSN
763000N 0220000E - 752000N 0244000E - 745000N 0214000E - 755000N
0184000E - (763000N 0220000E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES.
SIMILAR ACTIVITIES ARE ALSO PLANNED WITHIN THE UNALLOCATED
INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE IN PSN 705600N 0320500E - 701000N 0320500E -
700928N 0320152E - 701500N 0315000E - 703007N 0315000E - 703622N
0314318E - (705600N 0320500E)
F) GND G) UNL
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Insider claims that the launch is on November 25 (allowed by the marine navigation warnings and NOTAMs, the later listed below) AND the payload is not Bars.

The drop zones are probably standard for Soyuz-2.1a/2.1b launches into polar orbit. The only payload launched by these rockets into polar orbit from Plesetsk in recent years has been Bars-M, but, as I mentioned in an earlier post here, there are two new types of imaging satellites that are long overdue:

1) a trio of small reconnaissance satellites built by VNIIEM. They were identified as MKA ("small satellite") 1, 2 and 3 in a VNIIEM presentation that ended up online in the middle of last year and were then supposed to fly in the second half of 2022. It wasn't specifically stated that they would be launched together, but that would seem to be the most logical conclusion. Most likely, these are the satellites named Razbeg in several procurement and court documents. They could be similar or identical to Khayyam, the satellite that VNIIEM built for Iran and was launched from Baikonur in August 2022. A patent related to Khayyam showed three of these satellites mounted on a single Soyuz-2 rocket.

 
2) the first of two Razdan satellites, big spy satellites built by RKTs Progress that are supposed to replace the Persona satellites. They are presumably equipped with a 2.4 m mirror. There has been no indication in recent years when they could be ready to fly. It is not even certain if they will fly on the Soyuz-2.

 

Offline B. Hendrickx

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https://tass.ru/kosmos/19380179

TASS reports a Soyuz-2-1b rocket launched a military satellite at 23.58 Moscow time (20.58 UTC). No further details so far.

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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Success!


TASS.

Standard launch announcement saying that the satellite has been successfully placed into orbit and that contact has been established with it by the Titov control center. Usually this announcement also includes the name of the satellite, but not this time.

They mention a single satellite, so the trio of VNIIEM satellites can be ruled out. The use of the Soyuz-2-1b points to a heavy payload, leaving the first Razdan (14F156 N°1) as the most likely candidate right now. There were some indications that Razdan may fly in an elliptical orbit like America's KH-11 spy satellites, so it'll be interesting to see what the NORAD data tell us. We're not likely to get anything more from the Russians. 

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Via https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/11623 - the triangular lightning towers points to Site 43/4 being used.

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1728622600291749932
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Offline Satori

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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Success!
TASS.
...it'll be interesting to see what the NORAD data tell us. We're not likely to get anything more from the Russians.
And the observations of the amateur astronomer/satellite observer community.

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-182
« Last Edit: 11/26/2023 04:55 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline input~2

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ORIGINATOR    "18 SPCS"
OBJECT_NAME    "COSMOS 2571"
OBJECT_ID    "2023-182A"
EPOCH    "2023-11-26T09:06:07.377984"
INCLINATION    "96.6264"
RA_OF_ASC_NODE    "72.5389"
ARG_OF_PERICENTER    "64.1253"
NORAD_CAT_ID    "58435"
PERIOD    "90.750"
APOAPSIS    "321.646"
PERIAPSIS    "301.039"

Moderator update given western governmental agency receipt of spacecraft designation I have updated the thread title to reflect the newly updated designation until further notice.
« Last Edit: 11/26/2023 11:20 pm by russianhalo117 »

Offline russianhalo117

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Liftoff 20:58:06 UTC from pad 43/4 according to this video:



Offline Satori

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TASS.

Standard launch announcement saying that the satellite has been successfully placed into orbit and that contact has been established with it by the Titov control center. Usually this announcement also includes the name of the satellite, but not this time.

They mention a single satellite, so the trio of VNIIEM satellites can be ruled out. The use of the Soyuz-2-1b points to a heavy payload, leaving the first Razdan (14F156 N°1) as the most likely candidate right now. There were some indications that Razdan may fly in an elliptical orbit like America's KH-11 spy satellites, so it'll be interesting to see what the NORAD data tell us. We're not likely to get anything more from the Russians. 

Bart, do you have any comment regarding this launch? Your analysis would be very appreciated.

Offline russianhalo117

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Success!


TASS.

Standard launch announcement saying that the satellite has been successfully placed into orbit and that contact has been established with it by the Titov control center. Usually this announcement also includes the name of the satellite, but not this time.

They mention a single satellite, so the trio of VNIIEM satellites can be ruled out. The use of the Soyuz-2-1b points to a heavy payload, leaving the first Razdan (14F156 N°1) as the most likely candidate right now. There were some indications that Razdan may fly in an elliptical orbit like America's KH-11 spy satellites, so it'll be interesting to see what the NORAD data tell us. We're not likely to get anything more from the Russians. 

Bart, do you have any comment regarding this launch? Your analysis would be very appreciated.
I believe per discussions with others we are all waiting on seeing if it maneuvers to an operational orbit or deploys any covers.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Bart, do you have any comment regarding this launch? Your analysis would be very appreciated.
I believe per discussions with others we are all waiting on seeing if it maneuvers to an operational orbit or deploys any covers.

Yes, let's wait a little to see what it does. It'll have to do something to prevent it from re-entering, especially with the high solar activity we're witnessing now. I'm still looking at a number of options to explain this one. One problem is the relatively small payload fairing used for this launch. I'll try to write down something more substantial one of the coming days.   

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