https://twitter.com/M51_4ever/status/1725256226739757131
NAVAREA XIX 156/23BARENTS SEA1.AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATIONDUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL23 TO 27 NOV DAILY FROM 2000 TO 2230 UTCA. 76-30.0N 022-00.0EB. 75-20.0N 024-40.0EC. 74-50.0N 021-40.0ED. 75-50.0N 018-40.0EE. 76-30.0N 022-00.0E2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 272230 NOV 23
An unusual launch time for an optical satellite...
Insider claims that the launch is on November 25 (allowed by the marine navigation warnings and NOTAMs, the later listed below) AND the payload is not Bars.
Success!TASS.
Quote from: patchfree on 11/25/2023 10:49 pmSuccess!TASS....it'll be interesting to see what the NORAD data tell us. We're not likely to get anything more from the Russians.
https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-182
Liftoff 20:58:06 UTC from pad 43/4 according to this video:
Quote from: patchfree on 11/25/2023 10:49 pmSuccess!TASS.Standard launch announcement saying that the satellite has been successfully placed into orbit and that contact has been established with it by the Titov control center. Usually this announcement also includes the name of the satellite, but not this time.They mention a single satellite, so the trio of VNIIEM satellites can be ruled out. The use of the Soyuz-2-1b points to a heavy payload, leaving the first Razdan (14F156 N°1) as the most likely candidate right now. There were some indications that Razdan may fly in an elliptical orbit like America's KH-11 spy satellites, so it'll be interesting to see what the NORAD data tell us. We're not likely to get anything more from the Russians.
Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 11/25/2023 11:15 pmQuote from: patchfree on 11/25/2023 10:49 pmSuccess!TASS.Standard launch announcement saying that the satellite has been successfully placed into orbit and that contact has been established with it by the Titov control center. Usually this announcement also includes the name of the satellite, but not this time.They mention a single satellite, so the trio of VNIIEM satellites can be ruled out. The use of the Soyuz-2-1b points to a heavy payload, leaving the first Razdan (14F156 N°1) as the most likely candidate right now. There were some indications that Razdan may fly in an elliptical orbit like America's KH-11 spy satellites, so it'll be interesting to see what the NORAD data tell us. We're not likely to get anything more from the Russians. Bart, do you have any comment regarding this launch? Your analysis would be very appreciated.
Quote from: Satori on 11/28/2023 04:25 pmBart, do you have any comment regarding this launch? Your analysis would be very appreciated.I believe per discussions with others we are all waiting on seeing if it maneuvers to an operational orbit or deploys any covers.
Bart, do you have any comment regarding this launch? Your analysis would be very appreciated.