Author Topic: Firefly Alpha FLTA004 : Tantrum : VSFB SLC-2W : 22 Dec 2023 (17:32 UTC)  (Read 42116 times)

Online zubenelgenubi

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Quote from: JCM tweet
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.
How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.
Here is that from the the fact sheet for the Nebula bus as well as the fact sheet itself.
Electric thrusters only?  Not well-suited for raising the perigee before atmospheric entry.

L-M has their work cut out for them.✂️
Feels like a contingency mission.
Come on, little satellite! 🛰
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Quote from: JCM tweet
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.
How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.
Here is that from the the fact sheet for the Nebula bus as well as the fact sheet itself.
Electric thrusters only?  Not well-suited for raising the perigee before atmospheric entry.

L-M has their work cut out for them.✂️
Feels like a contingency mission.
Come on, little satellite! 🛰
🙏

It's really going to depend on how fast they can do basic commissioning and thruster activation. Assuming those thrusters are present, I'd expect them to do a truncated commissioning to start apogee burns as soon as possible. Idealy within days.
AE/ME
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Offline ZachF

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Quote from: JCM tweet
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.

How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.

It only takes like 100m/s to raise its orbit, the problem is that drag is gonna be heavy at 215km.
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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It would really help a lot if we knew what the target orbit had been!
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Online zubenelgenubi

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How many days does a satellite with perigee 215 km currently (approaching solar max) have, assuming no orbit raising?
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What I would like to know is why the customer opted to stop the coverage after Seco-1, rather than at faring sep, even though we had some visibility of the satellite before that. Maybe the vehicle was engaged in some activity to prepare for seco-2 that we are not permitted to observe? Usually, the customer does not want us to see the vehicle at all under these circumstances.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 10:12 pm by catdlr »
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Offline edkyle99

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On FLTA003, Alpha flew direct to a roughly 500 km orbit.  The second stage restart was used for deorbit.  Perhaps this payload weighed too much for that approach.  Either way, it appears that three of the first four Alpha's have failed, two at second stage restart. 

Alpha now stands at the bottom of the active launch vehicle list in reliability, unless Simorgh is still alive.  The US leads the world in orbital launch failures this year (one each by Alpha, LauncherOne, Terran 1, RS-1), augmented by three big suborbital failures (two by Super Heavy/Starship and one by a Minuteman 3).

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 11:06 pm by edkyle99 »

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How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.

It only takes like 100m/s to raise its orbit, the problem is that drag is gonna be heavy at 215km.

There's also the time needed to get 100 m/s from a 1.1 mN thruster that was intended for station keeping on a 380 kg (?) satellite, not for orbital maneuvers. About a year?
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8 hours post launch, still no statement from Firefly?
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Offline jimvela

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What I would like to know is why the customer opted to stop the coverage after Seco-1, rather than at faring sep, even though we had some visibility of the satellite before that. Maybe the vehicle was engaged in some activity to prepare for seco-2 that we are not permitted to observe? Usually, the customer does not want us to see the vehicle at all under these circumstances.
Definitely weird.
Usually, spacecraft are not active before separation, so anything happening on the LM (Terran Orbital) spacecraft seems unlikely. 
Maybe there was an undeclared secondary payload not shown in the camera views we saw.
Edit- or LM were not wanting views of their phased array antenna.

There's also the time needed to get 100 m/s from a 1.1 mN thruster that was intended for station keeping on a 380 kg (?) satellite, not for orbital maneuvers. About a year?

That 1.1mN thruster is going to be lucky even to offset drag losses from the low perigee, let alone substantially raise the perigee from 215km.

If you were just trying to raise perigee, you also wouldn't burn the engine through the whole orbit, so that back of the envelope math is off by at least 50% too short a time frame.

There's also the question of whether there's enough thruster propellant onboard even if you were going to try that.

8 hours post launch, still no statement from Firefly?

8 hours and nothing further from anybody.  Very curious.

Will be interesting to see what the tracking shows as we get to see more of the TLEs.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 12:47 am by jimvela »

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How many of these thrusters are aboard, and how many could be used in concert to produce net delta-v to raise perigee?

I am interested in what the amateur satellite observers, visual and RF, will observe in the coming days.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 12:46 am by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

How many of these thrusters are aboard, and how many could be used in concert to produce net delta-v to raise perigee?

I am interested in what the amateur satellite observers, visual and RF, will observe in the coming days.

In the absence of anything official, I'd be watching this page to look for any positive changes in apogee or perigee. https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202
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How many of these thrusters are aboard, and how many could be used in concert to produce net delta-v to raise perigee?

I am interested in what the amateur satellite observers, visual and RF, will observe in the coming days.

In the absence of anything official, I'd be watching this page to look for any positive changes in apogee or perigee. https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202

Semi major axis seems to slightly increase.

I think this can be put in a stable orbit.

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How many of these thrusters are aboard, and how many could be used in concert to produce net delta-v to raise perigee?

I am interested in what the amateur satellite observers, visual and RF, will observe in the coming days.

In the absence of anything official, I'd be watching this page to look for any positive changes in apogee or perigee. https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202

Semi major axis seems to slightly increase.

I think this can be put in a stable orbit.

I see no credible evidence of an increase so far.
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1738366362437972108

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CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-202) of a military demonstration satellite atop an Alpha rocket from Vandenberg SFB on Dec 22 at 1732 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2023/12/20/liv…. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1738435542570705110

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Today, Firefly’s Alpha launch had a successful liftoff & progressed seamlessly through each stage of flight, including  MECO, stage separation, fairing separation and the first SECO. Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit. Communications to the spacecraft has been established and mission operations are now underway. Read more here

https://fireflyspace.com/missions/fly-the-lightning/

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Mission Update

Firefly’s Alpha FLTA004 launch had a successful liftoff and progressed seamlessly through each stage of flight, including stage one main engine cutoff (MECO), stage separation, stage two ignition, fairing separation, and second stage engine cutoff (SECO) 1. Following SECO 1, Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit. However, communication to the spacecraft has been established and mission operations are now underway.

Firefly recognizes all that went into preparation of the payload and would like to thank Lockheed Martin for their continued support. In line with our core principals as a company, we will rapidly and continuously innovate to find a solution and ensure complete resolution of any anomaly we see during flight. We will work with our customer and government partners to investigate the stage 2 performance and determine the root cause. As more information is available, we will be providing updates here.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 04:47 am by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Following SECO 1, Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit.

Sounds like the second stage did relight to some extent, but it underperformed in some way, maybe because reduced thrust or an early cutoff. How long was the burn was supposed to be? I would guess it would be pretty short, maybe <5 seconds.

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Following SECO 1, Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit.

Sounds like the second stage did relight to some extent, but it underperformed in some way, maybe because reduced thrust or an early cutoff. How long was the burn was supposed to be? I would guess it would be pretty short, maybe <5 seconds.

10 seconds.
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The ESA sensor is expected to calibrate in a fraction of the time it takes to operationalize traditional on-orbit sensors, which historically can take months to be powered on, fully calibrated and ready to perform their mission.

Its going to need to in its current orbit, so LM has a good opportunity here still

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