Author Topic: Firefly Alpha FLTA004 : Tantrum : VSFB SLC-2W : 22 Dec 2023 (17:32 UTC)  (Read 42129 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://firefly.com/firefly_space/status/1717232318904258575

Quote
#FLTA004 here we come! The Firefly team successfully completed stage testing on our Alpha rocket in our fastest test sprint to date. Off to Vandenberg next… stay tuned for more details.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 01:49 pm by Galactic Penguin SST »

Offline GewoonLukas_

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Offline russianhalo117

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There already is a thread for this launch:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=58177.0
Different payloads as Flight 4's primary payload is Tantrum scheduled for NET October now November 2023 as VCLS Demo-2FB (ELaNa 43) mission was bumped to March 2024.

One reference regarding the Tantrum payload being NET October 2023:
https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau/firefly.htm
« Last Edit: 10/25/2023 07:49 pm by russianhalo117 »

Offline GewoonLukas_

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There already is a thread for this launch:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=58177.0
Different payloads as Flight 4's primary payload is Tantrum scheduled for NET October now November 2023 as VCLS Demo-2FB (ELaNa 43) mission was bumped to March 2024.

One reference regarding the Tantrum payload being NET October 2023:
https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau/firefly.htm

Any other sources/info regarding this satellite?
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Offline Skyrocket

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Any other sources/info regarding this satellite?

I have not the slightest idea what it could be.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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When I Googled "tantrum satellite" the first two listings were to the Lockheed Martin LM400 page and an article on Lockheed Martin flying a "technology demonstration mission" with Firefly. What I find strange is that none of these pages mention Tantrum!

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/lm400.html

https://spacenews.com/firefly-to-launch-lockheed-martin-small-satellite-experiment/ [Jun 29]
« Last Edit: 11/25/2023 10:32 am by zubenelgenubi »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline PM3

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When I Googled "tantrum satellite" the first two listings were to the Lockheed Martin LM400 page and an article on Lockheed Martin flying a "technology demonstration mission" with Firefly. What I find strange is that none of these pages mention Tantrum!

We will get used to this strangeness. It is the moment when an artificial intelligence has been more intelligent than we.
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Offline GWR64

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https://firefly.com/firefly_space/status/1717232318904258575

Quote
#FLTA004 here we come! The Firefly team successfully completed stage testing on our Alpha rocket in our fastest test sprint to date. Off to Vandenberg next… stay tuned for more details.

This link doesn't work. Is that supposed to be a link to Twitter/X?
https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1717232318904258575

On the Firefly Aerospace homepage I can't find a information about an imminent launch.
https://fireflyspace.com/news/

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post:
https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1724944359378788405
Quote
Just two months after our VICTUS NOX launch, the Firefly crew has completed stage integration and rolled Alpha out to the pad. Stay tuned for more info about flight 4!



Edit/add:
Firefly:
1125-EX-ST-2023  Tantrum mission NET Oct [1], [NLT Apr 1]

Cross-post:
Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2024
NET November 2023  March - VCLS (VADR) Demo-2FB/ELaNa 43: CatSat, KUbe-Sat-1, MESAT1, R5-S4, R5-S2-2.0, REAL, Serenity (3), SOC-i, TechEdSat-11 (TES-11) - Firefly Alpha (FLTA004) - Vandenberg SLC-2W (or NLT July)

NET March - OTB 2 (Orbital Test Bed-2) - Firefly Alpha - Vandenberg SLC-2W

NET March - EOS SAR 1 - Firefly Alpha - Vandenberg SLC-2W

NET October 2023  Q1 - Tantrum - Firefly Alpha - Vandenberg SLC-2W

Q1 - iSIM-SAT - Firefly Alpha - Vandenberg SLC-2W / Canaveral SLC-20

Q2 - TBD - Firefly Beta - Canaveral SLC-20

NET    January   Q2 - SUV demo mission, FANTM Ride - Firefly Alpha (FLTA005?) - Vandenberg SLC-2W

NET  December 2023  Q2 - Spaceflight Inc. multi satellite launch - Firefly Alpha - Vandenberg SLC-2W

Q4 - TBD - Firefly Beta - Vandenberg SLC-2E

TBD - Firefly Alpha - Lockheed Martin mission - Firefly Alpha - TBD
TBD - TBD - Firefly Alpha - Canaveral SLC-20
TBD - TBD - Firefly Alpha - Canaveral SLC-20

Changes on October 13th
« Last Edit: 11/26/2023 02:46 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Is there intent to launch in December? 🤔 There appears to be.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2023 02:35 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline GewoonLukas_

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Possible candidate?:

Quote
Electronically Steerable Antenna (ESA) Technology Demonstrator
November 22, 2023

This self-funded payload demonstrator, which will launch aboard Firefly Aerospace’s Alpha rocket, extends Lockheed Martin’s significant investment in scalable wideband ESA technology development to showcasing an actual on-orbit capability. This technology is critical to future remote sensing architectures and is built on a novel, scalable design, using highly-reliable commercial parts for quick, mass-producibility. For this demonstration, it was integrated on a Terran Orbital Nebula small satellite bus.
« Last Edit: 11/26/2023 12:45 pm by GewoonLukas_ »
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Offline russianhalo117

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Possible candidate?:

Quote
Electronically Steerable Antenna (ESA) Technology Demonstrator
November 22, 2023

This self-funded payload demonstrator, which will launch aboard Firefly Aerospace’s Alpha rocket, extends Lockheed Martin’s significant investment in scalable wideband ESA technology development to showcasing an actual on-orbit capability. This technology is critical to future remote sensing architectures and is built on a novel, scalable design, using highly-reliable commercial parts for quick, mass-producibility. For this demonstration, it was integrated on a Terran Orbital Nebula small satellite bus.
Tantrum was baselined to use an LM400 spacecraft bus per initial information.

Offline GewoonLukas_

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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Tantrum = ESA Demo?  Which one is the primary name of the satellite?

No NOTAMs or NOTMARs yet?
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://fireflyspace.com/missions/fly-the-lightning/

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Mission Summary

Alpha FLTA004, called Fly the Lightning, will launch a demonstrator payload for Lockheed Martin in low Earth orbit to help get on-orbit capabilities in the hands of U.S. warfighters faster. As a secondary objective, the mission team will further demonstrate responsive space capabilities by tracking and improving the total working hours required from payload receival to launch readiness compared to Alpha FLTA003, the record-breaking VICTUS NOX mission. During the final launch operations, the mission team will encapsulate and mate the payload to Firefly’s Alpha rocket using a similar responsive timeline. Our rapid, iterative operations and robust facilities, including Firefly’s payload processing facility at our launch site, allows the team to quickly ready the payload and rocket for liftoff.

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

https://news.lockheedmartin.com/ESA_payload_demonstrator

Lockheed Martin Technology Demonstration to Showcase Faster On-Orbit Sensor Calibration
Mission to Cut Delivery Time and Bring Capabilities to the Warfighter Faster

DENVER, Colo., Nov. 27, 2023 – Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) will soon launch a unique wideband Electronically Steerable Antenna (ESA) payload demonstrator to show the company's investment in advanced technology to perform missions faster once on orbit.

Based on an innovative, proprietary design, Lockheed Martin expects to calibrate this new ESA sensor in a fraction of the time it takes to operationalize traditional on-orbit sensors, which historically can take months to be powered on, fully calibrated and ready to perform their mission.

The payload demonstrator, which will launch aboard Firefly Aerospace’s Alpha rocket, extends Lockheed Martin’s significant investment in scalable wideband ESA technology development to showcasing an actual on-orbit capability. This technology is critical to future remote sensing architectures.

“Our customers’ mission needs and operational tempo have increased dramatically,” said Maria Demaree, vice president and general manager of National Security Space at Lockheed Martin Space. “We designed this technology to showcase how a highly producible ESA antenna could be built, launched, and quickly calibrated and fielded on orbit, in support of 21st Century Security.”

The ESA payload is built on a novel, scalable design, using highly reliable commercial parts for quick, mass-producibility. For this demonstration, it was integrated on a Terran Orbital Nebula small satellite bus.

The payload, nicknamed Tantrum, was developed in Lockheed Martin Space’s Ignite organization, a new team established to target three main missions: exploratory research and development, accelerating the pace of technology development and, lastly, introducing new product innovations.

“Within the Ignite construct, the payload was developed from early architecture to flight-ready product in 24 months on an accelerated schedule piloting many streamlined agile processes,” said Sonia Phares, vice president of Ignite at Lockheed Martin Space. “For this demonstration, Lockheed Martin has invested its own resources and is embracing more calculated risks from initial development through on-orbit operations to bring new technologies to the forefront of space faster and to keep our customers ahead of ready.”

The payload demonstrator is expected to launch in December on a Firefly Aerospace Alpha rocket as part of the agreement with Lockheed Martin that Firefly announced in June. Most recently in September, Firefly’s Alpha successfully launched the U.S. Space Force’s VICTUS NOX responsive space mission following a 24-hours’ notice.

Lockheed Martin also is producing several other self-funded technology demonstrator spacecraft, including Pony Express 2, which will further demonstrate mesh networking among satellites, and the Tactical Satellite, which will demonstrate on-orbit processing, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. These on-orbit demonstrators are part of an ongoing investment plan to showcase technology maturity and new capabilities.

Earlier this year, the company successfully launched and tested its In-space Upgrade Satellite System (LM LINUSS™) demonstrator, which proved how small satellites can help upgrade and sustain space architectures with new capabilities.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Will this launch campaign at SLC-2W interfere with the serial Falcon 9 launch campaigns at SLC-4E?
(Wet Dress Rehearsal, Static Fire, launch?)
Overflight?
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 09:22 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/harry__stranger/status/1733991895918059569

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@Firefly_Space's Alpha rocket was captured laying horizontal at SLC-2W on 2023-12-08 ahead of the Fly the Lightning mission for @LockheedMartin.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1734644662517002468

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Our dedicated, hardworking Alpha launch crew successfully completed a static fire over the weekend. As part of our “test what you fly” approach, these full-duration hot fires verify all systems are GO for launch. Stay tuned for more on Alpha #FLTA004 #FlyTheLightning for @LockheedMartin.

https://fireflyspace.com/missions/fly-the-lightning/

Offline lightleviathan

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I'm a fan of the Firefly logo on the 2nd stage now!

Offline GewoonLukas_

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Offline VLN

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Quote from: USCG
Hazardous operations will be conducted from Vandenberg AFB, CA for Western Range 2343 from 8:48am on 20 December, 2023 until 10:26am on 21 December, 2023. Hazardous operation areas are bounded by the following coordinates:....
https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/lnms/lnm11502023.pdf
As usual for this source, I interpret the time window as two windows from 8:48am PST to 10:26am PST, on Dec 20 and 21, 2023.

The reason I associate this with Firefly is that they're the only launch company I know that flies flamboyantly retrograde orbits from VSFB, inclinations greater than 110 deg. This one is at a heading of 249 deg, for an inclination near 159 deg.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1736855188542046237

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Get ready for Alpha #FLTA004 Fly the Lightning! We’re prepared to launch no earlier than Dec. 20 with backup dates through Dec. 22, depending on local weather in Vandenberg. This mission for @LockheedMartin will serve as another opportunity for us to demonstrate our responsive space operations. Stay tuned for the livestream in collaboration with @NASASpaceflight! More on the mission here:

https://fireflyspace.com/news/firefly-aerospace-ready-to-launch-alpha-flta004-for-lockheed-martin-no-earlier-than-december-20/

Quote
December 18, 2023
Firefly Aerospace Ready to Launch Alpha FLTA004 for Lockheed Martin No Earlier Than December 20

Alpha FLTA004 Livestream with NASA Spaceflight
As Firefly’s second responsive space operation, Fly the Lightning will get on-orbit capabilities into the hands of U.S. warfighters faster


VANDENBERG SPACE FORCE BASE, Calif, – December 18, 2023 – Firefly Aerospace, an end-to-end space transportation company, today announced its Alpha FLTA004 Fly the Lightning mission is prepared to launch no earlier than December 20 with backup dates through December 22, depending on local weather. The daily 20-minute launch window will open at 9:18 am PST.

The Fly the Lightning mission will deploy an Electronically Steered Antenna (ESA) payload developed by Lockheed Martin to demonstrate rapid delivery of on-orbit capabilities for U.S. warfighters. As a secondary objective, the mission team will further demonstrate responsive space capabilities by tracking and improving the total working hours required from payload receival to launch readiness compared to Alpha FLTA003, the record-breaking VICTUS NOX mission.

“On the heels of our successful Alpha launch for the U.S Space Force, the Firefly team will continue to push the limits and set new standards in the industry, operating at a rapid pace for Alpha FLTA004 and future missions in response to the needs of our customers,” said Bill Weber, CEO of Firefly Aerospace. “This team is utilizing lessons from our VICTUS NOX mission to fundamentally change how quickly both government and commercial customers can process their payloads and launch assets to space.”

During the final launch operations, the team will transport the payload faring to the launch pad and mate it to Firefly’s Alpha rocket using similar responsive operations to VICTUS NOX. The launch is being observed by members of the U.S. Space Force Tactically Responsive Space team to inform future missions and the requirements for repeatable on-demand launch capabilities.

“Through the VICTUS NOX demonstration, the Space Force proved the United States can rapidly respond to national security threats in space on an unprecedented timeline,” said Lt. Col. Justin Beltz, Materiel Leader and Chief of the Small Launch and Targets Division of the U.S. Space Force. “We’re now focused on transforming Tactically Responsive Space from a groundbreaking achievement into a repeatable capability. By partnering with Firefly to observe Alpha FLT004, we can continue to build synergy with commercial industry and further define the training, infrastructure, and operational requirements for long-term repeatability.”

Fly the Lightning will launch from Firefly’s SLC-2 complex at the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Firefly’s new payload processing facility at its launch site allows the team to rapidly fuel and integrate payloads in a clean room environment. The company’s flight-proven Alpha rocket, lifting more than 1,000 kg to low Earth orbit, further enables direct, on-demand deliveries when and where customers need to fly.

“What we’re most excited about is that this mission features several firsts – a new payload, built rapidly in a new way, with Firefly as a new launch partner,” said Bob Behnken, director of Technology Acceleration for Lockheed Martin’s Ignite organization. “This also marks the first of our self-funded technology demonstrations through Lockheed Martin’s Ignite organization, created to accelerate development projects like this, push limits and expand capabilities for customers.”

Lockheed Martin’s ESA demonstrator payload, integrated on a Terran Orbital Nebula small satellite bus. The payload was developed by Lockheed Martin’s Ignite organization stood up to focus on exploratory research and development, accelerating the pace of technology development, and introducing new product innovations.

For more details on the Alpha FLTA004 Fly the Lightning mission and livestream, visit https://fireflyspace.com/missions/fly-the-lightning/.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2023 08:08 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online catdlr

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Just to highlight one sentence in that briefer above:

Quote
Alpha FLTA004 Livestream with NASA Spaceflight
« Last Edit: 12/19/2023 03:52 am by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1737157610745241742

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It’s L-1 for the Fly the Lightning mission on our Alpha #FLTA004 rocket! Fireflies are preparing for another rapid launch operation where the encapsulated payload fairing will be mated to the rocket just hours before liftoff. We're hoping Mother Nature cooperates for a liftoff of @LockheedMartin's payload tomorrow morning from @SLDelta30. Sign up for the livestream here: youtube.com/watch?v=QMJv-5…
« Last Edit: 12/19/2023 05:29 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline jstrotha0975

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What time is the launch tomorrow?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1737207606215663978

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Heads up West Coast, if weather conditions cooperate, you may be able to catch a glimpse of our Alpha rocket launch! Our Fly the Lightning mission is scheduled to liftoff from Vandenberg, California, as early as tomorrow morning at 9:18 am PST. Starting at T-0, use this visibility map to see when you can view Alpha #FLTA004.

https://fireflyspace.com/missions/fly-the-lightning/

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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What time is the launch tomorrow?

Launch window is 9:18 am - 9:38 am PST (17:18 - 17:38 UTC)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1737317079869772002

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Somewhere over the rainbow, our Alpha rocket is feeling the good vibes as the Fly the Lightning launch countdown is officially underway. This hardworking team is once again conducting their rapid operations for this @LockheedMartin mission. Tune into the #FLTA004 livestream here, starting at T-60 minutes: youtube.com/watch?v=QMJv-5….

Photo credit: Firefly Aerospace / Sean Parker

Online catdlr

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What time is the launch tomorrow?

Launch window is 9:18 am - 9:38 am PST (17:18 - 17:38 UTC)

Heavy Rain is expected during the next 24 hours.  Center of the Storm is scheduled to swing through the S. Cal area today.  One storm has moved off to the East and another is coming down the coast.  They might have a chance to sneak it in on time.  Good luck to them.

This is the Firefly Livestream link (the NSF link was provided above).

« Last Edit: 12/20/2023 08:32 am by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1737435274940973526

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Firefly's Alpha rocket is set to launch the FLTA004 "Fly the Lightning" mission from Space Launch Complex 2 West (SLC-2W) at California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base on Wednesday.

The 20-minute window opens at 9:18 AM local time (17:18 UTC).

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/12/fly-the-lightning/

- By Tyler Gray (@TylerG1998)

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Here is the local weather from a dependable forecaster (I travel here a lot and use this station for predictions).

Jump to 1:30 in the video for the storm front simulation (the city to spot is Lompoc).

youtube.com/watch?v=ToTRJ2m3Crg
« Last Edit: 12/20/2023 11:21 am by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737470199761375729

Quote
Happy launch day y'all! The countdown for Alpha #FLTA004 is underway. Teams are monitoring weather, which is currently a 30% go. Alpha stands ready to launch. Go Fly the Lightning! Watch live at T-60 minutes to liftoff scheduled for 9:18 am PST: https://youtube.com/live/QMJv-54Dpcc?si=Mk5KBCUU9OvZnbn7

https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737477518066651494

Quote
Alpha LOX loading is underway. On track for liftoff at 9:18 am PST from
@SLDelta30 #FLTA004 #FlyTheLightning
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Offline Galactic Penguin SST

https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1737483447252213810

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As the team continues to countdown for today’s Alpha launch, we have adjusted the T-0 to 9:24 am PST to support optimal ground tracking for the mission. #FLTA004 #FlyTheLightning
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« Last Edit: 12/20/2023 02:45 pm by HVM »

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

NET December 22 it seems (weather forecast for tomorrow is worse than today’s): https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis.jsp?advn=47&adv_date=12202023&facId=ATCSCC&title=ATCSCC%20ADVZY%20047%20DCC%2012/20/2023%20OPERATIONS%20PLAN&titleDate=12/20/2023

Possibly related NOTAM?

!CARF 12/441 ZLA AIRSPACE DCC FIRFLY ALPHA LITNING 23-2 STNR ALT
RESERVATION WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 345300N1203000W TO 345000N1201200W
TO 344600N1200400W TO 343600N1195700W TO 342700N1195800W TO
342000N1201500W TO 341800N1204500W TO 335100N1222200W TO
311500N1294000W TO 313200N1293400W TO 313800N1295000W TO
331900N1252500W TO 341900N1223700W TO 344800N1205700W TO POINT OF
ORIGIN SFC-UNL 2312221718-2312221832
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

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scrubbed

Today’s launch attempt of our Alpha rocket has been scrubbed due to weather conditions.


The storm had reached LA as expected around 10 a.m.  It probably hit VSFB around the time of launch.  The issue for the 22nd is not rain but upper-level winds.  There is an anticipated shift of the Mid-Pacific jet from the upper US to right directly over So Cal.
« Last Edit: 12/20/2023 06:49 pm by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1737609454726910009

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Our Alpha launch is rescheduled for Friday, Dec. 22 at 9:18 a.m. PST, following today’s scrub due to inclement weather. The rocket and payload remain healthy - we’re just waiting on Mother Nature! Livestream will begin T-60 minutes to liftoff. #FTLA004 #FlyTheLightning

Photo credit: Firefly Aerospace / @TrevorMahlmann

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https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1737907529684865256

Quote
Following Wednesday's scrub due to unfavorable weather, Firefly Aerospace plans to conduct its second launch of the year on Friday in just under 24 hours.

NSF will provide Livestream Production Services for this launch.

➡️youtube.com/watch?v=LItoeS…

Liftoff of an Alpha rocket from Space Launch Complex 2W at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California is scheduled during a 20-minute launch window, opening at 9:18 a.m. PST / 17:18 UTC.

The mission, dubbed Fly The Lightning, is a dedicated commercial launch for Lockheed Martin, lofting the company's Electronically Steerable Antenna (ESA) Demo to Low Earth Orbit. ESA is to demonstrate faster on-orbit sensor calibration to deliver rapid capabilities to U.S. warfighters.

Photo: Jack Beyer (@thejackbeyer)/NSF for Firefly.

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https://twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1738053545365242179

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So pumped to be here in California with @Firefly_Space! Here’s a few shots of final launch preps. Alpha takes to the skies Friday at 9:18 a.m. PST 🚀 #FlyTheLightning ⚡️

🎥Tune-in live here, beginning 60min prior to liftoff: youtube.com/live/QMJv-54Dp…

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Working no issues, T-0 of 17:32 UTC:

Quote
Twas the morning of launch and all throughout the pad
The rocket is ready and no issues to be had.

Today’s T-0 for Alpha’s Fly the Lightning Mission is 9:32am PST. Tune in to the livestream, beginning an hour before launch at https://youtube.com/live/QMJv-54Dpcc?si=-qnlE84k-t8hq7PV #FLTA004

https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1738202523503083941
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 01:22 pm by GewoonLukas_ »
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https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1738220172534559225

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Firefly Aerospace's Alpha rocket (FLTA004) with the "Fly the Lightning" mission livestream begins in 60 minutes.

Overview:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/12/fly-the-lightning/ - by Tyler Gray (@TylerG1998)

NSF is providing Livestream Production Services for this launch. 

➡️


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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1738220725130166481

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Live behind the scenes from Alpha’s Fly the Lightning Mission control room, ACE (Alpha’s Chief Engineer) is monitoring systems as the team counts down to 9:32 a.m. PST, tune in live to the @NASASpaceflight  broadcast one hour before launch! youtube.com/live/QMJv-54Dp…

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Weather 60% GO:

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Update: weather has improved to 40% POV and trending better for launch – range is GREEN! GO for launch Alpha, let’s Fly the Lightning! #FLTA004

https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1738225674652107159
Lukas C. H. • Hobbyist Mission Patch Artist 🎨 • May the force be with you my friend, Ad Astra Per Aspera ✨️

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Webcast has started
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 03:35 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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At customer request no live views after SECO-1
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 03:37 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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T-0 is 17:32:30 UTC

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1738238971526717745

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Update from the range's weather plane, conditions are still GREEN for today's mission!  GO Alpha, Fly the Lightning! #FLTA004

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Launch day ops timeline

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Rocket graphic

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T-30

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Close-up view

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« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 04:25 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Launch visibility
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 04:30 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Strongback retracting
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 04:28 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Final Go/No go poll: T-2 GO for launch
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 04:30 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Liftoff!
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 04:34 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Supersonic and MaxQ
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 04:34 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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MECO, stage sep and SES
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 04:36 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Fairing sep

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S2 burn

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SECO and nominal transfer orbit achieved!
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 04:41 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Quote
Firefly is go for launch.

youtube.com/watch?v=LItoeS…

https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1738250096838410511

Quote
Strongback retract.

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https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1738251351463718966

Quote
LAUNCH! Firefly Aerospace's Alpha rocket (FLTA004) - with the "Fly the Lightning" mission - launches from Vandenberg SLC-2W. 

Overview: nasaspaceflight.com/2023/12/fly-th… - by Tyler Gray (@TylerG1998)

Livestream➡️youtube.com/watch?v=LItoeS…

Quote
Staging 1-2.

https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1738253544875016694

Quote
SECO-1 - nominal.

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Live stream is ending with some launch replays

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1738258057820336416

Quote
Beautiful picture-perfect view of our Alpha rocket as we lifted off from @vandenberg_sfb at 9:32 a.m. PST this morning. Next, our second-stage engine will place the @lockheedmartin payload in its final orbit! Photo credit: Firefly Aerospace/Trevor Mahlmann

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Launch highlights


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https://twitter.com/thejackbeyer/status/1738258914725278032

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Beautiful launch of @Firefly_Space's Alpha rocket this morning from Vandenberg SFB. @NASASpaceflight

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Based on this earlier tweet, second S2 burn should have happened by now

https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1738253302649798826

Quote
Alpha reached orbit and the second stage engine shut off as planned. In about 40 minutes, we’ll briefly relight Firefly’s second stage engine to circularize our orbit. GO ALPHA, way to Fly the Lightning!! #FLTA004 @LockheedMartin

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This tweet was before expected circularisation burn:

https://twitter.com/lmspace/status/1738258343695954136

Quote
Congratulations @Firefly_Space on today's launch of Alpha #FLTA004 and thanks for the lift! Our Electronically Steerable Antenna technology demonstrator is on its way to orbit. 🛰️
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 06:41 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

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https://twitter.com/notcislunar/status/1738267855966392806

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.@Firefly_Space's Alpha #FLTA004 takes off from SLC-2W at Vandenberg SFB, carrying @LMSpace's Tantrum demo satellite to low Earth orbit.

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2.5 hours for this cone of silence.  Stage and payload should be approaching end of second orbit.


 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 07:09 pm by edkyle99 »

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Well that's not good

Quote
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1738294781032202553
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 07:27 pm by GewoonLukas_ »
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Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.

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https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1738296967271174623

Quote
Groundtrack of the 2023-202A/202B objects from SpaceTrack TLEs, consistent with being the Firefly launch. Orbital elements have epoch of 1907 UTC, which should be after the circ burn, and the fact there are two objects argues against it being a mesaurement pre-SECO2.

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Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.

If the payload separated, and is in the wrong orbit, then maybe some kind of payload operations can be salvaged. 
That's about the best possible outcome if the burn didn't happen correctly.
If the payload separated the upper stage is unable to help it, but at least if it cleanly separated then it (might) be able to deploy its' solar array(s)  be commanded and maybe even maneuver.

The ground segment will be scrambling as it won't be in the predicted orbit, so all the predicted ephemeris products given to the ground segment will be wrong and trying to track/communicate with the payload will be a mad scramble. (Assumes a ground based space communications network is in use and not something like TDRSS)

If the payload didn't separate cleanly from the upper stage and still there are two or more objects in the transfer orbit, then something went very very wrong with the upper stage and it's almost certainly LOM at that point.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 07:47 pm by jimvela »

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Quote from: JCM tweet
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.

How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 08:49 pm by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Quote from: JCM tweet
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.

How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.

Here is that from the the fact sheet for the Nebula bus as well as the fact sheet itself.
AE/ME
6 Suborbital spaceflight payloads. 14.55 minutes of in-space time.

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Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.

While we wait for word and status, I wanted to thank our NSF staff on the Internet and on-site for their coverage of this flight, special thanks to FurtureSpaceTravel for today's coverage. I was not able to attend live but FTS updates brought me up to date.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 08:53 pm by catdlr »
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Quote from: JCM tweet
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.
How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.
Here is that from the the fact sheet for the Nebula bus as well as the fact sheet itself.
Electric thrusters only?  Not well-suited for raising the perigee before atmospheric entry.

L-M has their work cut out for them.✂️
Feels like a contingency mission.
Come on, little satellite! 🛰
🙏
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Quote from: JCM tweet
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.
How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.
Here is that from the the fact sheet for the Nebula bus as well as the fact sheet itself.
Electric thrusters only?  Not well-suited for raising the perigee before atmospheric entry.

L-M has their work cut out for them.✂️
Feels like a contingency mission.
Come on, little satellite! 🛰
🙏

It's really going to depend on how fast they can do basic commissioning and thruster activation. Assuming those thrusters are present, I'd expect them to do a truncated commissioning to start apogee burns as soon as possible. Idealy within days.
AE/ME
6 Suborbital spaceflight payloads. 14.55 minutes of in-space time.

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Quote from: JCM tweet
Two objects cataloged by Space Force in 215 x 523 km x 140.0 deg orbit.  If this is the LM satellite and the Firefly second stage, it may suggest the second stage restart was not successful.

Hopefully the silence means they are still trouble shooting and haven’t yet written off achieving the correct orbit.

How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.

It only takes like 100m/s to raise its orbit, the problem is that drag is gonna be heavy at 215km.
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
https://www.instagram.com/artzf/

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https://twitter.com/spacecoastpix/status/1738292511649812793

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You put on a good show. Glad to have seen it in person thanks to the weather delay.

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It would really help a lot if we knew what the target orbit had been!
-----------------------------

Jonathan McDowell
http://planet4589.org

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How many days does a satellite with perigee 215 km currently (approaching solar max) have, assuming no orbit raising?
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What I would like to know is why the customer opted to stop the coverage after Seco-1, rather than at faring sep, even though we had some visibility of the satellite before that. Maybe the vehicle was engaged in some activity to prepare for seco-2 that we are not permitted to observe? Usually, the customer does not want us to see the vehicle at all under these circumstances.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 10:12 pm by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

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On FLTA003, Alpha flew direct to a roughly 500 km orbit.  The second stage restart was used for deorbit.  Perhaps this payload weighed too much for that approach.  Either way, it appears that three of the first four Alpha's have failed, two at second stage restart. 

Alpha now stands at the bottom of the active launch vehicle list in reliability, unless Simorgh is still alive.  The US leads the world in orbital launch failures this year (one each by Alpha, LauncherOne, Terran 1, RS-1), augmented by three big suborbital failures (two by Super Heavy/Starship and one by a Minuteman 3).

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/22/2023 11:06 pm by edkyle99 »

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How much delta-v does the satellite have?  The L-M team could still raise the perigee to a closer-to-circular orbit.

It only takes like 100m/s to raise its orbit, the problem is that drag is gonna be heavy at 215km.

There's also the time needed to get 100 m/s from a 1.1 mN thruster that was intended for station keeping on a 380 kg (?) satellite, not for orbital maneuvers. About a year?
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8 hours post launch, still no statement from Firefly?
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Offline jimvela

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What I would like to know is why the customer opted to stop the coverage after Seco-1, rather than at faring sep, even though we had some visibility of the satellite before that. Maybe the vehicle was engaged in some activity to prepare for seco-2 that we are not permitted to observe? Usually, the customer does not want us to see the vehicle at all under these circumstances.
Definitely weird.
Usually, spacecraft are not active before separation, so anything happening on the LM (Terran Orbital) spacecraft seems unlikely. 
Maybe there was an undeclared secondary payload not shown in the camera views we saw.
Edit- or LM were not wanting views of their phased array antenna.

There's also the time needed to get 100 m/s from a 1.1 mN thruster that was intended for station keeping on a 380 kg (?) satellite, not for orbital maneuvers. About a year?

That 1.1mN thruster is going to be lucky even to offset drag losses from the low perigee, let alone substantially raise the perigee from 215km.

If you were just trying to raise perigee, you also wouldn't burn the engine through the whole orbit, so that back of the envelope math is off by at least 50% too short a time frame.

There's also the question of whether there's enough thruster propellant onboard even if you were going to try that.

8 hours post launch, still no statement from Firefly?

8 hours and nothing further from anybody.  Very curious.

Will be interesting to see what the tracking shows as we get to see more of the TLEs.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 12:47 am by jimvela »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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How many of these thrusters are aboard, and how many could be used in concert to produce net delta-v to raise perigee?

I am interested in what the amateur satellite observers, visual and RF, will observe in the coming days.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 12:46 am by zubenelgenubi »
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How many of these thrusters are aboard, and how many could be used in concert to produce net delta-v to raise perigee?

I am interested in what the amateur satellite observers, visual and RF, will observe in the coming days.

In the absence of anything official, I'd be watching this page to look for any positive changes in apogee or perigee. https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202
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How many of these thrusters are aboard, and how many could be used in concert to produce net delta-v to raise perigee?

I am interested in what the amateur satellite observers, visual and RF, will observe in the coming days.

In the absence of anything official, I'd be watching this page to look for any positive changes in apogee or perigee. https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202

Semi major axis seems to slightly increase.

I think this can be put in a stable orbit.

Offline jcm

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How many of these thrusters are aboard, and how many could be used in concert to produce net delta-v to raise perigee?

I am interested in what the amateur satellite observers, visual and RF, will observe in the coming days.

In the absence of anything official, I'd be watching this page to look for any positive changes in apogee or perigee. https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202

Semi major axis seems to slightly increase.

I think this can be put in a stable orbit.

I see no credible evidence of an increase so far.
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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1738366362437972108

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CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-202) of a military demonstration satellite atop an Alpha rocket from Vandenberg SFB on Dec 22 at 1732 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2023/12/20/liv…. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202

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https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1738435542570705110

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Today, Firefly’s Alpha launch had a successful liftoff & progressed seamlessly through each stage of flight, including  MECO, stage separation, fairing separation and the first SECO. Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit. Communications to the spacecraft has been established and mission operations are now underway. Read more here

https://fireflyspace.com/missions/fly-the-lightning/

Quote
Mission Update

Firefly’s Alpha FLTA004 launch had a successful liftoff and progressed seamlessly through each stage of flight, including stage one main engine cutoff (MECO), stage separation, stage two ignition, fairing separation, and second stage engine cutoff (SECO) 1. Following SECO 1, Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit. However, communication to the spacecraft has been established and mission operations are now underway.

Firefly recognizes all that went into preparation of the payload and would like to thank Lockheed Martin for their continued support. In line with our core principals as a company, we will rapidly and continuously innovate to find a solution and ensure complete resolution of any anomaly we see during flight. We will work with our customer and government partners to investigate the stage 2 performance and determine the root cause. As more information is available, we will be providing updates here.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 04:47 am by FutureSpaceTourist »

Quote
Following SECO 1, Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit.

Sounds like the second stage did relight to some extent, but it underperformed in some way, maybe because reduced thrust or an early cutoff. How long was the burn was supposed to be? I would guess it would be pretty short, maybe <5 seconds.

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

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Following SECO 1, Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit.

Sounds like the second stage did relight to some extent, but it underperformed in some way, maybe because reduced thrust or an early cutoff. How long was the burn was supposed to be? I would guess it would be pretty short, maybe <5 seconds.

10 seconds.
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The ESA sensor is expected to calibrate in a fraction of the time it takes to operationalize traditional on-orbit sensors, which historically can take months to be powered on, fully calibrated and ready to perform their mission.

Its going to need to in its current orbit, so LM has a good opportunity here still

Quote
Following SECO 1, Alpha’s scheduled stage 2 engine relight did not deliver the payload to its precise target orbit.

Sounds like the second stage did relight to some extent, but it underperformed in some way, maybe because reduced thrust or an early cutoff. How long was the burn was supposed to be? I would guess it would be pretty short, maybe <5 seconds.

10 seconds.

Oh wow, thats pretty long. I doubt it takes a full 10 seconds on burn to raise the periapsis 300km, so yeah seems pretty likely the second stage relit and provided at least some performance.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 05:14 am by spacenuance »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Quote from: TS Kelso tweet
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-202) of a military demonstration satellite atop an Alpha rocket from Vandenberg SFB on Dec 22 at 1732 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2023/12/20/liv…. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202
[Dec 23 UTC]
Tantrum should be Object A: 216 km x 523 km x 140.0°
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 05:17 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline ZachS09

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Should the mission outcome be a partial success?

I feel that "partial failure" sounds too negative based on what Firefly stated.
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Should the mission outcome be a partial success?

I feel that "partial failure" sounds too negative based on what Firefly stated.

It's a boundary case, and it depends on your scope. For my database, where I score all launches since Sputnik, and am looking at 'can this rocket get things to orbit', I am more generous than some. On a scale where 0 is total failure and 1 is total success, I am scoring it 0.4  using a rubric at  https://planet4589.org/space/gcat/web/intro/success.html
('failure; orbit but not a usable one'). I also have a category 'success: orbit usable but not nominal') which scores 0.75, and my judgement call is that this orbit does not fall into that category, even if for this particular sat they manage to eke out a reduced mission.
  Other analysts, more focused on recent decades and commercial launches, would likely score this 0, full failure.   Analysts in the early 1960s, when getting to orbit was still a 50/50 thing, might have thought of this flight as a stunning success...
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Offline edkyle99

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Should the mission outcome be a partial success?

I feel that "partial failure" sounds too negative based on what Firefly stated.
I judge the launch vehicle from a customer point of view.  Either the LV puts the payload, in good condition, where it is supposed to go or it doesn't.  In this case - hundreds of km short on perigee - it didn't.  Launch vehicle failure, full stop.

 - Ed Kyle

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Ultimately it's the customer who decides whether they got what they needed or not. It's like having Amazon drop your parcel off halfway to your house and telling you that you need to pick it up and take it home. Far from ideal and more a "failure" than not IMO.

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https://twitter.com/shorealonefilms/status/1738610038980362596

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Launch day views from the @Firefly_Space #FlyTheLightning Mission from @SLDelta30 more to come!! @LockheedMartin 12-23-23

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https://twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1738615327045321179

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🚀Liftoff of @Firefly_Space's Alpha #FLTA004 'Fly The Lightning' mission⚡️

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EDIT: Cancel and replace.

I have a glimmer of hope, based on what is likely a flawed physical model, that under constant thrust and absent atmospheric drag Tantrum could have raised both its orbital perigee and apogee by 1 km in 2.28 days.

Sadly, Celestrak data (https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202) seem to indicate that atmospheric drag is winning.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2023 11:18 pm by sdsds »
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Offline jimvela

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Sadly, Celestrak data (https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202) seem to indicate that atmospheric drag is winning.

The Celestrak data looks to me like there is ONLY a slow orbital decay happening.
I don't see evidence for any significant spacecraft thrusting taking place- or if any is, as you note drag is winning.


Offline jcm

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EDIT: Cancel and replace.

I have a glimmer of hope, based on what is likely a flawed physical model, that under constant thrust and absent atmospheric drag Tantrum could have raised both its orbital perigee and apogee by 1 km in 2.28 days.

Sadly, Celestrak data (https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202) seem to indicate that atmospheric drag is winning.

I would not expect them to even have begun thrusting yet. Will likely take a few days
to plan an emergency mission *if* they should do so.
Most likely: will just be allowed to decay.
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https://twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1738743925576282330

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🚀Liftoff of @Firefly_Space's Alpha #FLTA004 'Fly The Lightning' mission⚡️

Offline Zed_Noir

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EDIT: Cancel and replace.

I have a glimmer of hope, based on what is likely a flawed physical model, that under constant thrust and absent atmospheric drag Tantrum could have raised both its orbital perigee and apogee by 1 km in 2.28 days.

Sadly, Celestrak data (https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202) seem to indicate that atmospheric drag is winning.

I would not expect them to even have begun thrusting yet. Will likely take a few days
to plan an emergency mission *if* they should do so.
Most likely: will just be allowed to decay.

Disagree. They still can get valuable engineering data for various systems of the spacecraft even if it doesn't make orbit. Maybe the spacecraft can stay up long enough to do some tests with the ESA array.

Offline sdsds

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Not getting any better. (Apologies to Celestrak for somehow losing their logo while cleaning up the image.)
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https://twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1738901516625301823

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🚀Liftoff of @Firefly_Space's Alpha #FLTA004 'Fly The Lightning' mission⚡️

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'Fly The Lightning' mission⚡️

I'll hazard a guess that the probable cause of the anomaly is a sign error in the launch commit criteria. ;)

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Either way, it appears that three of the first four Alpha's have failed, two at second stage restart. 

 - Ed Kyle
Does anyone happen to have breakdown of how many launch failures (for either the US or the world) have been due to an upper stage problem vs a booster problem (using the strict definition of failure to achieve target orbit safely)? My gut says more failures are due to upper stages, but I haven't taken the time to dig up all the numbers.

Offline edkyle99

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Either way, it appears that three of the first four Alpha's have failed, two at second stage restart. 

 - Ed Kyle
Does anyone happen to have breakdown of how many launch failures (for either the US or the world) have been due to an upper stage problem vs a booster problem (using the strict definition of failure to achieve target orbit safely)? My gut says more failures are due to upper stages, but I haven't taken the time to dig up all the numbers.
Not comprehensive, but a quick look at the past two years shows 18 total failures, during the following phases of flight.
Stage 1:  3
Stage 2:  12
Stage 3:  1
Stage 4:  1
Fairing:   1

 - Ed Kyle

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Disagree. They still can get valuable engineering data for various systems of the spacecraft even if it doesn't make orbit. Maybe the spacecraft can stay up long enough to do some tests with the ESA array.

A well-managed technology development team relying on serial no. 4 launch vehicle should have planned for a shortened mission, or at least prioritized their ESA demo objectives so they’d be ready to reorder their procedures to hit the most important ones first. If they came armed for that situation, they might then rate the launch as disappointing but good enough. I fully agree with chopsticks that launch vehicle success is in they eye of the customer; I would add that an agile customer is more likely to be a happy customer.

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Sadly, Celestrak data (https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-202) seem to indicate that atmospheric drag is winning.

The Celestrak data looks to me like there is ONLY a slow orbital decay happening.
I don't see evidence for any significant spacecraft thrusting taking place- or if any is, as you note drag is winning.

Something to remember with orbit decay is that the rate of decay speeds up exponentially as altitude decreases.
« Last Edit: 12/26/2023 09:54 pm by ZachF »
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Something to remember with orbit decay is that the rate of decay speeds up exponentially as altitude decreases.

Yes, there's certain to be a non-linearity in there somewhere! Someone with expertise and experience could probably quantify that.

Meanwhile it's relatively fun and easy to calculate wrong results via linear extrapolation. Using two recent data points from Celestrak the eccentricity would drop to zero on Valentine's Day, at which point the circular orbit would be at something like 160 km, which wouldn't last long. So Feb 14, 2024 looks like the No Later Than date for re-entry.

A slightly more realistic approach (though still wrong) derives from the observation that at the initial perigee height of 211 km the spacecraft was experiencing significant drag. When the SMA reaches that height the data would likely start really showing the knee in the curve and the satellite would be truly doomed. Extrapolating from the recent SMA datapoints, that would be Feb 1, 2024.

Repeating for emphasis: these aren't even really guesses since they are almost certainly wrong.
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A belated post of the Tantrum online press kit.
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Offline VLN

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Can anyone explain what’s going on here?
Is this change of slope of SMA due to a real ongoing transfer of orbital energy from B to A?
Or is it an artifact of how Celestrak plots SMA (as altitude rather than apogee and perigee separately)?
Anyway, the plot seems to suggest that A (presumably the Lockheed ESA payload) will last a tad longer than previously expected.

Offline deltaV

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Can anyone explain what’s going on here?
Is this change of slope of SMA due to a real ongoing transfer of orbital energy from B to A?
Or is it an artifact of how Celestrak plots SMA (as altitude rather than apogee and perigee separately)?
Anyway, the plot seems to suggest that A (presumably the Lockheed ESA payload) will last a tad longer than previously expected.

My guess is nothing physically happened but the software that decides which radar returns belong to which object had a bad day and swapped the two objects for the last point in time. If you plot object B's last SMA and eccentricity on object A's plot and vice versa the last point in time continues the trend lines.

Offline jcm

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Can anyone explain what’s going on here?
Is this change of slope of SMA due to a real ongoing transfer of orbital energy from B to A?
Or is it an artifact of how Celestrak plots SMA (as altitude rather than apogee and perigee separately)?
Anyway, the plot seems to suggest that A (presumably the Lockheed ESA payload) will last a tad longer than previously expected.

My guess is nothing physically happened but the software that decides which radar returns belong to which object had a bad day and swapped the two objects for the last point in time. If you plot object B's last SMA and eccentricity on object A's plot and vice versa the last point in time continues the trend lines.


It's very common for Space Force to swap the identities of objects without telling anyone.
I have no doubt that is what has happened in this case. Likely they have decided the old B object was actually the payload, so they have changed its identity to A and vice versa

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58616   TYVAK-1015 (TANTRUM)  2023-202A   140.01   501   214
58617   FIREFLY ALPHA R/B     2023-202B   140.02   487   210
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Ignoring the glitch datapoint it still looks pretty linear....
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It's been a while, and the assignments of tracking data to Tantrum and its rocket booster appear to have swapped a couple more times. Both also show a clear sign of accelerating orbital decay: not just a steady decline of SMA but also a bend downward, a progressively steeper slope. This suggests that reentry is near.

I was able to download the plot data as CSV, and did my best to unswap them starting with today's data and and assignments, and working back toward launch day. I also applied a linear operation on the SMA and ellipticity to derive separate apogee and perigee altitudes.

The perigee trace of 58617 (R/B) shows an accelerating decline, clearer than its apogee trace, and clearer than 58616 (Tantrum payload). The sharpness of the downturn appears to me to indicate booster re-entry in the next week or so.

The perigee of 58616 (Tantrum) also shows a discernible acceleration of its decline. After some curve fitting and extrapolation, I offer a guess of three weeks (first week of Feb) for its reentry.

Note that my plots use different vertical scales for apogee and perigee.

I have only been playing with polynomial fits and inflection points to come to these conclusions. I acknowledge the lack of traditional physics and methods, and that's why I spoke vaguely in terms of weeks.

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Celestrak reports the Firefly upper stage re-entered; the payload is still orbiting.
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https://spacenews.com/lockheed-martins-misplaced-satellite-to-fall-back-to-earth-next-month/

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ORLANDO, Fla. — A Lockheed Martin satellite that was placed in the wrong orbit Dec. 22 is expected to de-orbit in February. Despite a much shortened mission, the company said it successfully accomplished many of the objectives of the technology demonstration.
...
Bob Behnken, director of technology acceleration at Lockheed Martin Space, told SpaceNews in a statement that the company’s antenna technology demonstration payload “exceeded our expectations and successfully completed all primary mission objectives. This feat is even more impressive in light of the spacecraft being placed in an unplanned, lower orbit, which resulted in a dramatically compressed mission timeline.”
...
From the lower orbit location, he said, “we’ve completed more than 100 payload testing events to date, and continue to achieve more each day.”

edit/gongora: trimmed, do not post copyrighted articles in their entirety
« Last Edit: 01/31/2024 08:50 pm by gongora »

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Firefly updated their mission webpage sometime on January 31 with a statement from the CEO. Unfortunately it's just fluff.

https://fireflyspace.com/missions/fly-the-lightning/

Quote from: Firefly
January 31, 2024

“As Firefly communicated in the immediate hours following Alpha FLTA004, we experienced a mishap when the second stage failed to achieve the planned target orbit for payload deployment. The subsequent investigation is progressing very well, and we will have more information to share in the weeks ahead as we wrap up our review and take corrective action. As part of that process, we invited our mission partner and future customers to serve as external oversight of the investigation for full transparency, and that exchange has been extremely valuable for the entire community.

Despite these challenges, the Firefly team placed our mission partner in an orbit where they successfully completed their primary mission objectives, including rapid commissioning of the satellite following insertion.  Before communicating any further mission-related status on our partner’s payload, we waited until their confirmation of performance and success, which they released in a recent statement.

Ultimately, the important long-term outcome is the rapid, thorough maturation of Alpha as the dependable one metric ton class rocket the market is demanding, which Firefly is dedicated to and is delivering. In the near term, it is a testament to the hard work and commitment of Firefly as a company that we were able to work alongside our partner to achieve this positive outcome.” – Bill Weber, CEO of Firefly Aerospace

Offline sdsds

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[...] So Feb 14, 2024 looks like the No Later Than date for re-entry.

The knee in the curve is now evident.
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Offline GewoonLukas_

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Quote
Tantrum reported to have reentered sometime between 1426 and 1518 UTC Feb 10. That almost 1 hr uncertainty corresponds to a track from Brazil to S Africa to NW Australia to Papua to Wake Island.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1756696249875472615
Lukas C. H. • Hobbyist Mission Patch Artist 🎨 • May the force be with you my friend, Ad Astra Per Aspera ✨️

Offline VLN

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https://spacenews.com/lockheed-martins-misplaced-satellite-to-fall-back-to-earth-next-month/

Quote
ORLANDO, Fla. — A Lockheed Martin satellite that was placed in the wrong orbit Dec. 22 is expected to de-orbit in February. Despite a much shortened mission, the company said it successfully accomplished many of the objectives of the technology demonstration.
...
Bob Behnken, director of technology acceleration at Lockheed Martin Space, told SpaceNews in a statement that the company’s antenna technology demonstration payload “exceeded our expectations and successfully completed all primary mission objectives. This feat is even more impressive in light of the spacecraft being placed in an unplanned, lower orbit, which resulted in a dramatically compressed mission timeline.”
...
From the lower orbit location, he said, “we’ve completed more than 100 payload testing events to date, and continue to achieve more each day.”

edit/gongora: trimmed, do not post copyrighted articles in their entirety
The payload maker & operator claims 100% success for their mission, despite the failure to reach the intended orbit. It seems to me that makes the Firefly Alpha FLTA004 mission success close to 100% also, because of the fortuitously relaxed needs of the customer.

Of course, we also hope Firefly will be able sort out the second stage problem so that a normal customer mission can be fully satisfied.

Offline edkyle99

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The payload maker & operator claims 100% success for their mission, despite the failure to reach the intended orbit. It seems to me that makes the Firefly Alpha FLTA004 mission success close to 100% also, because of the fortuitously relaxed needs of the customer.
With all due respect.  No.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline eeergo

The payload maker & operator claims 100% success for their mission, despite the failure to reach the intended orbit. It seems to me that makes the Firefly Alpha FLTA004 mission success close to 100% also, because of the fortuitously relaxed needs of the customer.

Of course, we also hope Firefly will be able sort out the second stage problem so that a normal customer mission can be fully satisfied.

Would you claim 100% success for a package delivery truck that broke down a ways away from the intended parcel recepient, dropping it into a neighbor's swimming pool in the process... just because the box happened to contain chlorine tablets for water cleaning, and the original recepient was a nearby convenience store who would be selling them to the pool's owner anyway?

It's pretty much the same situation, if you think about it.
-DaviD-

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1759950982908117051

Quote
Our dedicated team has completed the flight data review for Alpha FLTA004 and determined root cause after Alpha’s second stage did not achieve the target orbit for payload deployment. With corrective actions underway, Alpha will be ready to fly again in the coming months. Learn more here: https://fireflyspace.com/missions/fly-the-lightning/

Quote
…The investigation determined the mishap was due to an error in the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) software algorithm that prevented the system from sending the necessary pulse commands to the Reaction Control System (RCS) thrusters ahead of the stage two engine relight.



… Firefly is now implementing corrections actions to ensure the GNC software issue is resolved, including process changes to detect and prevent similar issues in the future. Alpha will be ready to fly again in the coming months.
« Last Edit: 02/20/2024 01:46 pm by Galactic Penguin SST »
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

Online catdlr

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just adding a comment to the above post

https://twitter.com/DJSnM/status/1759954805584203955

Quote
Software again - writing reliable code is hard.
So my question is, were the RCS commands supposed to perform propellant settling, and the engine didn’t fire, or was it supposed to set/stabilize attitude, meaning engine fire was in the wrong direction?
« Last Edit: 02/20/2024 04:55 pm by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Online JohnLloydJones

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just adding a comment to the above post

https://twitter.com/DJSnM/status/1759954805584203955

Quote
Software again - writing reliable code is hard.
So my question is, were the RCS commands supposed to perform propellant settling, and the engine didn’t fire, or was it supposed to set/stabilize attitude, meaning engine fire was in the wrong direction?

Retired software guy here and yes, reliable software can be hard. but it can be done. With the necessary time and money, of course. Mostly comes down to the company culture. I'm afraid.

Offline Ken the Bin

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Retired software guy here and yes, reliable software can be hard. but it can be done. With the necessary time and money, of course. Mostly comes down to the company culture. I'm afraid.

As a retired software guy myself, I can attest to the truth of "Good, fast, cheap: choose any two."

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