What immediately happens if moratorium on FAA regulation of commercial HSF ends?

[Robotbeat]

What immediately happens if moratorium on FAA regulation of commercial HSF ends?

Would New Shepard by able to get a launch license with paying passengers, given it wouldn’t have been certified at that point by the FAA and isn’t a pure experimental flight?

Like, if I have an aircraft with a new engine type (say, an electric motor) that doesn’t fit into FAA rules, I’m not allowed to fly paying passengers on it until the FAA develops regulations for it. Rockets are a specifically carved out exception to that, but the moratorium on regulation is potentially being ended soon.

Am I wrong in saying that this would almost certainly cause commercial passenger flights on New Shepard (and elsewhere) to end unless the FAA explicitly releases a rule allowing it?

[whitelancer64]

Nothing would happen immediately. The day it expires (currently January 1, 2024) is when new regulations can be proposed, but it would take time for them to go through the required processes for them to come into effect. Until new rules come into effect, the currently existing rules would continue to be used.

The FAA has a committee called SpARC (Human Space Flight Occupant Safety Aerospace Rulemaking Committee), which is collaborating with industry (member list here: https://www.faa.gov/media/68036 ) on the development of future regulations. This committee is expected to submit a recommendation report in Summer 2024.

[Robotbeat]

But my understanding is that passenger service is prohibited without express approval.

[whitelancer64]

FAA officials have said that the end of the restriction would only start a long-term process to enact safety regulations.

“From a practical sense, not much would be changed” if the restriction expires at the end of the month, said Kelvin Coleman, FAA associate administrator for commercial space transportation, in a Sept. 18 interview. “We don’t have a set of drafted regulations all ready in a file cabinet that we can spring on the industry.”

He said the FAA is working to prepare for a time when it can draft safety regulations for spaceflight participants. That included establishing this summer a space-related aerospace rulemaking committee, known as a SpARC, that includes members of industry and academia to begin studies of potential future regulations.

“They’ve just begun some really good work trying to figure out what an appropriate framework ought to look like and what the timing of that should be,” Coleman said.

Developing regulations, he added, will be a long-term process. He noted that streamlined launch licensing regulations, known in the FAA as Part 450, took about two years to develop at what he described a “pretty accelerated” pace.

“Regulations take years to really do, and do right,” he said. “In my view, really to get it right you need somewhere between three to five years.”

https://spacenews.com/house-speaker-introduces-bill-to-extend-commercial-spaceflight-regulatory-learning-period/

[whitelancer64]

But my understanding is that passenger service is prohibited without express approval.

Don't they already have such approval under the current rules?

[Robotbeat]

FAA officials have said that the end of the restriction would only start a long-term process to enact safety regulations.

“From a practical sense, not much would be changed” if the restriction expires at the end of the month, said Kelvin Coleman, FAA associate administrator for commercial space transportation, in a Sept. 18 interview. “We don’t have a set of drafted regulations all ready in a file cabinet that we can spring on the industry.”

He said the FAA is working to prepare for a time when it can draft safety regulations for spaceflight participants. That included establishing this summer a space-related aerospace rulemaking committee, known as a SpARC, that includes members of industry and academia to begin studies of potential future regulations.

“They’ve just begun some really good work trying to figure out what an appropriate framework ought to look like and what the timing of that should be,” Coleman said.

Developing regulations, he added, will be a long-term process. He noted that streamlined launch licensing regulations, known in the FAA as Part 450, took about two years to develop at what he described a “pretty accelerated” pace.

“Regulations take years to really do, and do right,” he said. “In my view, really to get it right you need somewhere between three to five years.”

https://spacenews.com/house-speaker-introduces-bill-to-extend-commercial-spaceflight-regulatory-learning-period/

Im not hearing a commitment that they’d be allowed to launch in the meantime. How would the FAA give them a launch license?

[whitelancer64]

FAA officials have said that the end of the restriction would only start a long-term process to enact safety regulations.

“From a practical sense, not much would be changed” if the restriction expires at the end of the month, said Kelvin Coleman, FAA associate administrator for commercial space transportation, in a Sept. 18 interview. “We don’t have a set of drafted regulations all ready in a file cabinet that we can spring on the industry.”

He said the FAA is working to prepare for a time when it can draft safety regulations for spaceflight participants. That included establishing this summer a space-related aerospace rulemaking committee, known as a SpARC, that includes members of industry and academia to begin studies of potential future regulations.

“They’ve just begun some really good work trying to figure out what an appropriate framework ought to look like and what the timing of that should be,” Coleman said.

Developing regulations, he added, will be a long-term process. He noted that streamlined launch licensing regulations, known in the FAA as Part 450, took about two years to develop at what he described a “pretty accelerated” pace.

“Regulations take years to really do, and do right,” he said. “In my view, really to get it right you need somewhere between three to five years.”

https://spacenews.com/house-speaker-introduces-bill-to-extend-commercial-spaceflight-regulatory-learning-period/

Im not hearing a commitment that they’d be allowed to launch in the meantime. How would the FAA give them a launch license?

The same way they've been issuing them for the past couple years.

[Robotbeat]

But what authority would they have to NOT regulate them like the passenger flights they are?

[whitelancer64]

But what authority would they have to NOT regulate them like the passenger flights they are?

They already are regulating passenger flights, just to a limited extent. Being able to propose new regulations doesn't change that.

The end of the moratorium doesn't mean that all currently existing regulations are null and void, and they have to put everything on hold until new regulations are in place.

[Robotbeat]

Then why does the moratorium need to end?

[whitelancer64]

Then why does the moratorium need to end?

Pretty much for the same reasons we have any laws at all.

Probably most of the industry would like to keep the current status quo by pushing out the moratorium for several more years, but I think everyone agrees that getting proper regulations in place will be beneficial.

Mainly because they don't want to keep running on "informed consent" waivers indefinitely.  It'll help the industry as a whole to to have everyone playing by the same rule book.

Anyway, there won't be sudden changes overnight, whenever the moratorium ends, it'll take years for the new rules to come into effect.

[Robotbeat]

Shouldn’t the regulations be already known and ready to go WELL before the moratorium ends?

[Robotbeat]

Then why does the moratorium need to end?

Pretty much for the same reasons we have any laws at all.

…

That didn’t really answer the question. There’s a huge question mark about what would happen after the end of the moratorium, so any argument for ending the moratorium needs to answer exactly what rules would be put in its place.

[joek]

But what authority would they have to NOT regulate them like the passenger flights they are?

If you are asking why can't the FAA regulate commercial spaceflight same as commercial aviation? Because commercial spaceflight does not fall under the same CFR's as commercial aircraft. E.g., unlike commercial aviation, there are no similar "certification" requirements for commercial spacecraft. Thus the punt to "informed consent" for commercial spaceflight.

Why can't the FAA regulate commercial spaceflight-spacecraft the same as commercial aviation? Because the FAA has not been granted authority to do so. Unless and until the FAA is granted such authority, we live with the status quo.

[Robotbeat]

They WOULD have the authority (and in fact, obligation iirc) without the moratorium!

[joek]

Shouldn’t the regulations be already known and ready to go WELL before the moratorium ends?

No. The rules are not established at the end of the "moratorium". That is only the beginning of the process. The regulatory requirements will be established as part of that process, which will begin no earlier than Apr-2024. What they are and when they go into force is TBD. See here.

[joek]

They WOULD have the authority (and in fact, obligation iirc) without the moratorium!

No they don't. See reference in previous post.

[Robotbeat]

Shouldn’t the regulations be already known and ready to go WELL before the moratorium ends?

No. The rules are not established at the end of the "moratorium". That is only the beginning of the process. The regulatory requirements will be established as part of that process, which will begin no earlier than Apr-2024. What they are and when they go into force is TBD. See here.

Why would the regulations not be figured out BEFORE the moratorium is set to retire? That makes no bloody sense! I feel like I’m taking crazy pills here.

[trimeta]

Shouldn’t the regulations be already known and ready to go WELL before the moratorium ends?

No. The rules are not established at the end of the "moratorium". That is only the beginning of the process. The regulatory requirements will be established as part of that process, which will begin no earlier than Apr-2024. What they are and when they go into force is TBD. See here.

Why would the regulations not be figured out BEFORE the moratorium is set to retire? That makes no bloody sense! I feel like I’m taking crazy pills here.

Because (and to be clear, my understanding comes from what I've read in this thread), the moratorium was against figuring out new regulations. Once that expires, this doesn't make the old regulations go away; it just says that now the FAA is permitted to being the process of creating new regulations. Only after some further indeterminate period, during which the regulations are figured out, would these new regulations come into effect.

[Asteroza]

Shouldn’t the regulations be already known and ready to go WELL before the moratorium ends?

No. The rules are not established at the end of the "moratorium". That is only the beginning of the process. The regulatory requirements will be established as part of that process, which will begin no earlier than Apr-2024. What they are and when they go into force is TBD. See here.

Why would the regulations not be figured out BEFORE the moratorium is set to retire? That makes no bloody sense! I feel like I’m taking crazy pills here.

That would suggest a level of competence and foresight/preplanning suitable for the expected timeline. If you had expected to have several years to work out the details and the moratorium drops in 6 months suddenly, you are caught with your pants down. If you were expecting the moratorium to be indefinitely/repeatedly extended, spending time to work on new regulations might be interpreted as wasteful...