Author Topic: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith  (Read 14543 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« on: 09/18/2023 05:55 am »
twitter.com/fuschmu/status/1700204852641677772

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Five years in the making, and less than 2 months until the book comes out. Yikes!

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1703555994855293147

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Just finished reading my advcopy of 'A City on Mars'. A must-read! I believe successful long-term space settlement is not years to decades away but centuries to millenia; the Weinersmiths explain why and lay out the challenges we must (and I believe eventually will) overcome.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #1 on: 09/18/2023 05:57 am »
https://www.acityonmars.com/

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A CITY ON MARS
by Kelly Weinersmith and Zach Weinersmith
Earth is not well. The promise of starting life anew somewhere far, far away—no climate change, no war, no Twitter—beckons, and settling the stars finally seems within our grasp. Or is it? Critically acclaimed, bestselling authors Kelly and Zach Weinersmith set out to write the essential guide to a glorious future of space settlements, but after years of research, they aren’t so sure it’s a good idea. Space technologies and space business are progressing fast, but we lack the knowledge needed to have space kids, build space farms, and create space nations in a way that doesn’t spark conflict back home. In a world hurtling toward human expansion into space, A City on Mars investigates whether the dream of new worlds won’t create nightmares, both for settlers and the people they leave behind. In the process, the Weinersmiths answer every question about space you’ve ever wondered about, and many you’ve never considered.

“Scientific, educational, and fun as hell.”
— Andy Weir, New York Times bestselling author of The Martian and Project Hail Mary

“There is simply no more engrossing, entertaining, or thorough way to understand the intense challenge of humanity's off-Earth future than A City on Mars. I LAUGHED THE WHOLE WAY THROUGH.”
— Hank Green, New York Times bestselling author of An Absolutely Remarkable Thing

“Listen up, humans. How to poop in space will be the least of our concerns. Herein are challenges most space-heads, including me, never even considered: not just technological, but legal, ethical, geopolitical. Despite the breadth and depth of research and some impressive near-wonk-level detail, this is a clear, lively, and hilarious read. Slam dunk, Weinersmiths!”
— Mary Roach, New York Times bestselling author of Fuzz and Packing for Mars

"A City on Mars is deeply researched, hilarious, and sobering. Zach and Kelly Weinersmith have given us a bracing to-do list for the new age of space. Highly, highly recommended.”
— James S.A. Corey, author of The Expanse series

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #2 on: 11/13/2023 03:19 pm »
https://twitter.com/penguinpress/status/1724068347015307375

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You have questions about space, @ZachWeiner and @FuSchmu have answers. Join them for a @reddit_AMA tomorrow at 12pm ET! @Reddit

Offline Oersted

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #3 on: 11/13/2023 07:16 pm »
Downloaded the Kindle free sample just now.

Offline Athelstane

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #4 on: 11/13/2023 07:51 pm »
Peter Hague has the first part of a review up on his substack now.

One snippet:

____________

One section of the book promotes the ideas of Daniel Deudney, a political science professor who has decided that space settlement is too dangerous because he read The Moon is a Harsh Mistress too many times, and wants to intentionally sabotage it by increasing launch costs. Here is what they say:



There is no way that asteroids make better weapons of mass destruction. An asteroid thrown across space does much the same thing, except it takes months or years to reach its target, is much easier to detect and much easier to stop. The idea that space could increase the risk of a nuclear exchange on Earth is also bizarre, as if the logic of MAD will suddenly stop applying? I am reasonably confident that having a Moon base, or even losing one to the Americans, will not make Xi Jinping suddenly become suicidal. There is a reason Deudney’s work has been largely ignored - its just a bit silly.

https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-i

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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #6 on: 11/14/2023 05:04 am »
https://twitter.com/fuschmu/status/1724118892342386898

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Thanks to @peterrhague for taking the time to review A City on Mars. Here is @ZachWeiner and my response:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1sK-U9NYQQFEyRN1IvhtffZJR_m96G9-Fd-hCw3lq7s8/mobilebasic

Offline Oersted

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #7 on: 11/14/2023 08:23 am »
So I read the first four or five chapters, what's available in the Kindle free sample.

The tone is very chatty and quite humourous (Uranus joke in the very first sentence of the book, think of that what you will). It is also very personal, with the author and her cartoonist husband putting themselves front and center and inviting us along to discover the subject matter alongside them. If you know Tim Urban and his waitbutwhy.com web site then that's exactly the style.

That's the good side, if that is your thing. The bad side of the writing is that the authors breezily sling out their opinions as if they're absolute truth on every single page. They also happily misrepresent facts and opinions of others, to make their insights all the more convincing. Yet how weird that they are the first to see the light.

An example of their writing:

"A quotation used in 99.9999 percent of all books about space settlement comes from rocketry founding father Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, who wrote in a 1911 article, “The earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot forever live in the cradle.” Perhaps. But we should remember that what emerges from a cradle is not a full-grown adult, but a toddler—lacking in knowledge, very excited, and prone to self-destruction. If we do plan to leave this place, better to do so as an adult. Let’s spend the awkward years learning and then strike out for new vistas."

- So on the face of it, yeah, very cool put-down of Tsiolkovsky. They really got him there, didn't they. Except, wait a minute, did Tsiolkovsky actually say that a toddler should go out and explore space? No, of course he didn't.

And that's my beef with this book and why I don't want to buy it. The authors keep using strawman argumentation, unfaithfully misrepresenting others to put their own opinions in a better light. It is sophomoric, if not straight-down puerile.

Offline thespacecow

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #8 on: 11/28/2023 02:07 am »
Peter Hague's the critic of the book, part two: https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-ii

It's increasing clear to me that this recent surge of anti-space settlement literature is nothing but a symptom of EDS.
« Last Edit: 11/28/2023 02:12 am by thespacecow »

Offline LMT

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #9 on: 11/28/2023 04:08 am »
Peter Hague's the critic of the book, part two: https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-ii

It's increasing clear to me that this recent surge of anti-space settlement literature is nothing but a symptom of EDS.


Offline Emmettvonbrown

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #10 on: 11/28/2023 10:29 am »
Peter Hague's the critic of the book, part two: https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-ii

It's increasing clear to me that this recent surge of anti-space settlement literature is nothing but a symptom of EDS.

You need an EDS to land on Mars, actually: Entry and Descent System.  Also Earth Departure Stage.

Oh, wait, wrong EDS -  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EDS   
« Last Edit: 11/28/2023 10:32 am by Emmettvonbrown »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #11 on: 12/04/2023 06:09 pm »
Review by Robert Zubrin:

https://quillette.com/2023/12/04/why-we-should-go-to-mars/

No surprise, he’s not a fan!

Offline Oersted

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #12 on: 12/06/2023 04:16 pm »
Peter Hague's the critic of the book, part two: https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-ii

It's increasing clear to me that this recent surge of anti-space settlement literature is nothing but a symptom of EDS.

What do you refer to when you say EDS?

Offline Oersted

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #13 on: 12/06/2023 04:24 pm »
Review by Robert Zubrin:

https://quillette.com/2023/12/04/why-we-should-go-to-mars/

No surprise, he’s not a fan!

Beautiful article by Zubrin.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #14 on: 12/06/2023 07:34 pm »
"Of course, there are some kooks within the space community—as there are within all interest groups."--Robert Zubrin


Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #15 on: 12/06/2023 07:55 pm »
Peter Hague's the critic of the book, part two: https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-ii

It's increasing clear to me that this recent surge of anti-space settlement literature is nothing but a symptom of EDS.

If you mean so-called "Elon Derangement Syndrome" (EDS), then you are absolutely wrong.

The idea of space settlement has been around for a lot longer than the period of time since SpaceX (i.e. Elon Musk) actually started looking like it might be able to somehow play a part in future space settlement.

However remember that SpaceX itself has only ever been pitched as a low-cost transportation entity to ENABLE space settlements (starting with Mars), so opinions about whether space settlements can succeed are completely separate from the ability to move people and cargo to space settlements.

For instance, we have had the ability to move people and cargo to locations under water here on Earth for decades, but despite predictions that we would have cities under the oceans, it hasn't happened.

Personally I WANT space settlement to happen, and I WANT humans to expand out into space. And I am always looking for facts, information and opinion that can help make that happen.

Apparently this book may not be a source of facts or information to make help that happen, but that doesn't mean I won't stop doing what I can to support future space settlement.

My $0.02
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #16 on: 12/06/2023 09:10 pm »
Peter Hague's the critic of the book, part two: https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-ii

It's increasing clear to me that this recent surge of anti-space settlement literature is nothing but a symptom of EDS.

If you mean so-called "Elon Derangement Syndrome" (EDS), then you are absolutely wrong.

The idea of space settlement has been around for a lot longer than the period of time since SpaceX (i.e. Elon Musk) actually started looking like it might be able to somehow play a part in future space settlement.

However remember that SpaceX itself has only ever been pitched as a low-cost transportation entity to ENABLE space settlements (starting with Mars), so opinions about whether space settlements can succeed are completely separate from the ability to move people and cargo to space settlements.

For instance, we have had the ability to move people and cargo to locations under water here on Earth for decades, but despite predictions that we would have cities under the oceans, it hasn't happened.

Personally I WANT space settlement to happen, and I WANT humans to expand out into space. And I am always looking for facts, information and opinion that can help make that happen.

Apparently this book may not be a source of facts or information to make help that happen, but that doesn't mean I won't stop doing what I can to support future space settlement.

My $0.02
You missed his point I think. Of course the idea of space settlement has far preceded Musk. But the current flowering of anti-space-settlement literature (articles and books) is a direct response to billionaires like Musk popularizing it and, to some degree, making it more realistic by founding space launch and technology companies.

It’s reactionary. And I think this is correct, at least to some degree. A lot of people who would’ve been “rah, rah, send humans to Mars, that’s so cool” are down on the idea because it’s not NASA leading it as much but instead people they don’t like.

It’s a really stupid trend, and people who do this sort of reactionary thing have lost a lot of my respect (it shows how much their thought and logic process is influenced by political fads and peer pressure). But Musk doesn’t really do space settlement any favors by engaging in politically charged culture war stuff, either.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #17 on: 12/06/2023 09:23 pm »
...It’s a really stupid trend, and people who do this sort of reactionary thing have lost a lot of my respect (it shows how much their thought and logic process is influenced by political fads and peer pressure). But Musk doesn’t really do space settlement any favors by engaging in politically charged culture war stuff, either.

Musk doesn't do electric cars any good either with his political views, or satellite internet, or low-cost space launch.

But I don't see this book as some sort direct response to the idea of Elon Musk wanting to make humans multi-planetary, starting with Mars. In fact from the sample they show on Amazon of the book, Elon Musk is barely mentioned, and not even in a bad way.

The authors of this book truly wanted to look into the possibility of space settlement, and in their view they found lots of barriers. People seem to disagree with their assessment, and I'd probably be one of those (if I bothered to buy and read the book), and my only reason for my previous comment was to push back on the idea that this is some sort of anti-Musk screed.

Maybe their conclusions are ill-informed and wrong, but from the sample on Amazon they are only pushing back on the general idea of space settlement, not any one particular effort.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #18 on: 12/06/2023 09:43 pm »
I think that’s somewhat naive. There’s a lot of unknowns in this topic, and a lot of the impetus for it is, shall we say, aspirational. That means that in a lot of ways, the conclusion is influenced by who or what sources they choose to use.

For instance, they pick Duedney as a kind of expert on space settlement because he wrote a book about it. But Duedney is 100% not an expert in any of these technical questions! He’s a social science expert in *checks notes* international relations, and he wrote a screed against space settlement that was borderline racist (if it’s possible to be racist against future “races”) against future space settlers, calling them “monstrous.” But this is treated as a serious critique! There are several other instances of this sort of thing. The most subjective aspects are treated as authoritative experts. And a lot of this critique didn’t exist pre-Musk.

I think the authors are being sort of sincere here. But I think they’re biased by the ideological circles they run in (which to be clear, I also sort of do). There has been a huge influx of social science folks who haven’t the slightest clue about the technical aspects of space flight and have very little interest in engaging with the space settlement community on friendly terms who are treated as experts on the topic when their primary motivation for discussing the topic at all is explicitly ideological, ie “critiquing settler colonialism in the space settlement discourse” sort of thing. It’s a sort of laundering of credentials. And I think a lot of well-meaning people buy into it, unfortunately.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Emmettvonbrown

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #19 on: 12/07/2023 06:27 am »
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"Elon Derangement Syndrome"

Okay, but - unfortunately - it works both way. It has a mirror, reverse syndrome. "Elon can't be wrong, he is a visionary, blah blah blah".
The proverbial mote & beam.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mote_and_the_Beam

Funny how the fhanbioys imagined EDS and  ignored their own EDS : working the opposite way.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #20 on: 12/07/2023 08:11 pm »
I think that’s somewhat naive. There’s a lot of unknowns in this topic, and a lot of the impetus for it is, shall we say, aspirational. That means that in a lot of ways, the conclusion is influenced by who or what sources they choose to use.

Agreed. I mean, space settlement is still on the edge of fantasy, even with Starship starting testing. There are just too many unknowns to come to firm conclusions for or against.

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For instance, they pick Duedney as a kind of expert on space settlement because he wrote a book about it. But Duedney is 100% not an expert in any of these technical questions! He’s a social science expert in *checks notes* international relations, and he wrote a screed against space settlement that was borderline racist (if it’s possible to be racist against future “races”) against future space settlers, calling them “monstrous.” But this is treated as a serious critique! There are several other instances of this sort of thing. The most subjective aspects are treated as authoritative experts. And a lot of this critique didn’t exist pre-Musk.

Yikes, that is bad. But a great example of why it is too early to treat any critiques of space settlement with ANY level of belief. And that is because NO ONE is an "expert" in space settlement.

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I think the authors are being sort of sincere here. But I think they’re biased by the ideological circles they run in (which to be clear, I also sort of do).

Well, unless someone is writing a peer-reviewed study, you have to figure that there is some level of bias. I'm certainly biased FOR the idea of space settlement, but that doesn't make me an expert (there, I've said it!! ;)).

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There has been a huge influx of social science folks who haven’t the slightest clue about the technical aspects of space flight and have very little interest in engaging with the space settlement community on friendly terms who are treated as experts on the topic when their primary motivation for discussing the topic at all is explicitly ideological, ie “critiquing settler colonialism in the space settlement discourse” sort of thing. It’s a sort of laundering of credentials. And I think a lot of well-meaning people buy into it, unfortunately.

I think it is quite clear that we have found that the authors are not good enough domain experts to render a valid opinion on this topic, so I think we can stop the angst ridden hand-wringing over whether this book represents an attack on so and so, or whoever.

Let's just give it the attention it deserves. None.

How about that?

Next topic... :D
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Pipcard

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #21 on: 01/12/2024 03:10 am »
Peter Hague has the first part of a review up on his substack now.
...
https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-i

Quote from: A City on Mars
The most detailed treatment of the issue comes from international relations scholar Dr. Daniel Deudney and his book Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity. It’s an involved argument, but the basic idea is this: humans being what we are, the move into space creates at least two forms of existential peril: the risk of nuclear conflict on Earth due to a scramble for space territory, and the risk of heavy objects being thrown at Earth if humans are allowed to control things like asteroids and massive orbital space stations.

So Deudney's argument is similar to the plot of the anime Mobile Suit Gundam. One of the expository opening scenes shows the fascist Principality of Zeon dropping an O'Neill cylinder on Australia. Stuff like this has convinced a lot of people that space colonization is "the absolute worst idea ever conceived by the human mind" and that 'humans are too arrogant and don't deserve space.'

The creator of Gundam (Yoshiyuki Tomino) has come out as a critic of space colonization/settlement because of "rocket pollution" (even though they currently make up a minuscule fraction of CO2 emissions, even if increased a thousandfold would only be 0.0059%) and according to Renato Rivera Rusca, Tomino apparently gave a presentation to undergraduates that was "very critical of NASA, JAXA, and such organizations."

(I was interested in Gundam several years ago, but after learning that its creator seems to be opposed to all space development and not just warfare, I have no interest in that franchise anymore.)
« Last Edit: 01/13/2024 12:08 am by Pipcard »

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #22 on: 01/15/2024 02:34 am »
Here you go, the complete opposite:

https://www.amazon.com/New-World-Mars-Create-Planet/dp/1635768802?keywords=The+New+World+on+Mars&qid=1705190459&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=collectspace&linkId=1e5980c32323a5c53362bae5dacc8444&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl


The New World on Mars: What We Can Create on the Red Planet

by Robert Zubrin

    When Robert Zubrin published his classic book "The Case for Mars" a quarter century ago, setting foot on the Red Planet seemed a fantasy. Today, manned exploration is certain, and as Zubrin affirms in "The New World on Mars," so too is colonization. From the astronautical engineer venerated by NASA and today's space entrepreneurs, here is what we will achieve on Mars and how.

    SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic are building fleets of space vehicles to make interplanetary travel as affordable as Old-World passage to America. We will settle on Mars, and with our knowledge of the planet, analyzed in depth by Dr. Zubrin, we will utilize the resources and tackle the challenges that await us. What we will we build? Populous Martian city-states producing air, water, food, power, and more. Zubrin's Martian economy will pay for necessary imports and generate income from varied enterprises, such as real estate sales—homes that are airtight and protect against cosmic space radiation, with fish-farm aquariums positioned overhead, letting in sunlight and blocking cosmic rays while providing fascinating views. Zubrin even predicts the Red Planet customs, social relations, and government — of the people, by the people, for the people, with inalienable individual rights — that will overcome traditional forms of oppression to draw Earth immigrants. After all, Mars needs talent.

    With all of this in place, Zubrin's Red Planet will become a pressure cooker for invention, benefiting humans on Earth, Mars, and beyond. We can create this magnificent future, making life better, less fatalistic. "The New World on Mars" proves that there is no point killing each other over provinces and limited resources when, together, we can create planets.

    Hardcover, ‎320 pages
    Diversion Books (February 20, 2024)
    ISBN-10: 1635768802
    ISBN-13: 978-1635768800

Offline chopsticks

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #23 on: 01/15/2024 03:25 am »
I liked this part from the Ars Technica article:

Quote
The Weinersmiths treat all their experts rather kindly. But, frankly, reading between the lines, there is a thick streak of libertarianism running through the space settlement community. From these experts' position, they need a really big telescope to see reality. For instance, supposedly space will end scarcity… and yet, any habitat in space will naturally have only a single source of food, water, and, even more urgent, oxygen, creating (perhaps artificial) scarcity. The idea seems to be that everyone will go to space for profit, except for the necessities of life, where we will all be caring and sharing. The magical thinking is more apparent when you realize that it is believed that encountering the vastness of space will make humanity ultra-altruistic, while still being good capitalists. I have my doubts that this philosophy will work out well for anyone involved.

In a more realistic take on how societies function when there is only one source for the vitals of life, the Weinersmiths draw on the experiences (positive and negative) of company towns. It’s not all bad: Some company towns were very well run and fair, while others could have been dedicated as a shrine to tin-pot dictatorships. There is no reason, the Weinersmiths argue, to think we will not see the same in space, with the added benefit of not being able to escape from the company towns.

This a great example of how the silicon valley tech bro mindset takes over these types of things and doesn't consider all of the other human aspects like psychology, social issues, etc. They believe that technology will be the solution for basically everything. Extremely flawed logic.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2024 03:26 am by chopsticks »

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #24 on: 01/15/2024 02:42 pm »
I liked this part from the Ars Technica article:

Quote
The Weinersmiths treat all their experts rather kindly. But, frankly, reading between the lines, there is a thick streak of libertarianism running through the space settlement community. From these experts' position, they need a really big telescope to see reality. For instance, supposedly space will end scarcity… and yet, any habitat in space will naturally have only a single source of food, water, and, even more urgent, oxygen, creating (perhaps artificial) scarcity. The idea seems to be that everyone will go to space for profit, except for the necessities of life, where we will all be caring and sharing. The magical thinking is more apparent when you realize that it is believed that encountering the vastness of space will make humanity ultra-altruistic, while still being good capitalists. I have my doubts that this philosophy will work out well for anyone involved.

In a more realistic take on how societies function when there is only one source for the vitals of life, the Weinersmiths draw on the experiences (positive and negative) of company towns. It’s not all bad: Some company towns were very well run and fair, while others could have been dedicated as a shrine to tin-pot dictatorships. There is no reason, the Weinersmiths argue, to think we will not see the same in space, with the added benefit of not being able to escape from the company towns.

This a great example of how the silicon valley tech bro mindset takes over these types of things and doesn't consider all of the other human aspects like psychology, social issues, etc. They believe that technology will be the solution for basically everything. Extremely flawed logic.


Just scroll up and read the description of Zubrin's new book and you see that mentality--Mars is Nirvana and will be a wonderful place. From the description:


"Zubrin even predicts the Red Planet customs, social relations, and government — of the people, by the people, for the people, with inalienable individual rights — that will overcome traditional forms of oppression to draw Earth immigrants. After all, Mars needs talent... "The New World on Mars" proves that there is no point killing each other over provinces and limited resources when, together, we can create planets."

There are so many contradictions in the advocacy for space settlement, like this belief that it's going to be very open and democratic, except that anybody who freeloads will be using up valuable resources and will probably get pushed out an airlock (when you think about how many limited resources would go into supporting a prisoner in a jail, capital punishment may be applied to many crimes). And the whole argument about infinite resources is out of whack, ignoring the fact that many basic resources, like air and water, will be hard to obtain. It's a very utopian and naive vision.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2024 02:53 pm by Blackstar »

Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #25 on: 01/15/2024 03:22 pm »
It was an enjoyable read!  well worth the price.  It's not a technical work, just light science vulgarization, so it should be evaluated on that basis.  The fact that it is very popular is perhaps the more interesting result, but as a sociological phenomenon rather that the science in the book itself.

I think I mostly agree with the authors:
Go big, small won't work.
Space settlement is not a plan B. It may eventually turn into one in the longest time.
Non rotating space stations are not going to be very popular destination, or high volume.
Radiation protection is absolutely required as soon as you leave LEO.
The Moon and Mars surfaces are not the best places to live.
Space powder beamed to Earth probably won't work as a revenue source.
Space mining is risky at best, and mostly makes sense for space settlements, not for the Earth, which already has plenty of everything.
Space will not solve the Earth's problems. But it can help a bit.

Some general thoughts:

Interestingly, although they spend a lot of time on space sex, they fall into the common fallacy that space is not a population relief valve and therefore irrelevant.  I think humanity's control of reproduction means that it can serve as a way to create a new population center, and provide a slow increase of available quality living space.

I  also agree, and I hope others in this forum do as well,  that the company town model is not correct and not likely to be a success.  Companies hate running company towns anyway, and would much rather do without.  Company towns are a model of the past, not of the future.  The first rotating space station may be a company town or a space hotel, but not the hundredth, or even the tenth.

I think the legal question may be a bit overblown, and since planetary surfaces are an outside possibility, we might avoid much of the possible litigation.

The questions they raise about war are interesting, and I think the point that we might be adding a new way to destroy the Earth, rather than helping to make life multiplanetary, is worth further exploration.  My guess would be that in the future orbital protection systems/departments will include a division tasked with identifying changes in NEAs orbits that might not follow existing 'flight plans'.  Ideally nipping off any attack in the bud before it can build up speed.  This would eventually extend to at least the Kuiper belt, I expect.  Plenty of grunt work for the space patrol :-)

Something like a future Gaia type telescope with adequate computing power behind it should be pretty effective at following changes in orbits.  So in a sense the technologies that make orbital attacks possible would also make prevention possible. As long as we don't have inertialess drives, we should be able to detect any powerful fusion acceleration of small to mid-sized bodies as well.  Putting a HEO settlement into Earth collision orbit is also fairly hard, takes time and is very visible to anybody with a computer and a radio telescope.  Hiding in space is really difficult.

If you are going to spend significant resources to damage the Earth, good old nukes are probably equivalent in simplicity.  And the risk from asteroids seems significantly lower than AI, grey goo or biologicals. These have much lower mass/effort to damage ratio.

There is however a quasi certainty that Earth will eventually become unlivable, so alternatives are a good idea.  but there isn't much urgency on this. 

Regarding governance there are some interesting counter arguments that can be proposed:

The Earth will continue to exist, so Earth may be an escape valve for space settlements, rather than the other way around.
Elon Musk has addressed, up to a point, the question of the company town by saying that the price of a Mars ticket will include the return price.  I.E you can always leave.  This might be built into a space regulation fabric, if need be.  Having a lot of people in space, and many space settlements, also helps.

There is a lot of emphasis in the book on how terrible space is, and how the worst place on Earth is a paradise compared to Mars.  But the worst place on Earth is not a paradise compared to a rotating space station (or a well designed enclosed martian city).  If the space station is pleasant, then it becomes equal to some of the best places on Earth, that are not all that plentiful, and already full of people that like their way of life and their space are not willing to share it with others.  In particular since moving in too many people will ruin the space, kind of destroying the value anyway.

I think anyone who want to propose counter arguments needs to address how a space settlement can be democratic and more universal.  The obvious counter example being the movie Elysium.  If an apartment on a space settlement costs millions of dollars, how can an African peasant hope to buy one?  I think the point needs to be made that, perhaps not in the first space settlement,  but in settlement 100 or settlement 1000, cost will no longer be an object.  This will need to be true in any case, because if the first owner of a settlement apartment needs to be a millionaire, the third generation of his/her descendants will just be ordinary people.  So the millionaires need their children to be able to afford a similar apartment to the one they bought. 

The book, and most models of the future, fail to address what will happen to Earth society in the next few centuries and millennia.  It's a common failing, because it is so hard to do.  Avatar, for example, doesn't show life back on Earth, and although we guess it's really bad, this doesn't make much sense to me, given the capabilities of the technologies illustrated in the movie. 

So I think the book is certainly worth a read, but it's not a very good argument against space settlement.  However, there isn't a good popular counter argument book that has been proposed recently, and unfortunately Hollywood and other media by their very nature emphasize drama, rather than the more boring possibilities of a fine life in a tranquil environment :-)

So perhaps this shows it's time for a new good accessible book on the value of space settlement.

« Last Edit: 01/15/2024 03:22 pm by lamontagne »

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #26 on: 01/15/2024 04:21 pm »
I think humanity's control of reproduction means that it can serve as a way to create a new population center, and provide a slow increase of available quality living space.

How would that happen?

Note that on Earth there have been a number of countries that have sought to increase reproductive rates, mainly through financial incentives like tax breaks. I'm pretty sure that none of these have worked. So how do you think it would work in space?

Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #27 on: 01/15/2024 06:52 pm »
I think humanity's control of reproduction means that it can serve as a way to create a new population center, and provide a slow increase of available quality living space.

How would that happen?

Note that on Earth there have been a number of countries that have sought to increase reproductive rates, mainly through financial incentives like tax breaks. I'm pretty sure that none of these have worked. So how do you think it would work in space?
Human control of their reproductive rates by safe and effective contraception is recent.  We definitively haven't worked out all the details.  However, I think that it should be possible to create an incentive structure that makes it interesting for individuals to at least have the minimum reproductive rate, and something that oscillates around an optimum growth rate overt time.
Some incentives have worked up to a point in Quebec, where  I live, mostly involving improved family care conditions and various types of family support, including a big boost from parental leave for men.  But still it just moved from 1.3 to 1.5, some years 1.6  Ideally, the model shouldn't involve the state at all, and be some kind if socially inbuild control process.  I think that a positive outlook for the future is part of this, since parents want their kids to live in a better future, not a worse one.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #28 on: 01/15/2024 07:05 pm »
In Quebec, where I have actual numbers, the population growth rate decreased dramatically as the available land area was filled up.  Not all land, but economically farmable land.  There was a final period where we exported population to the US and heavily favored the institutional solution of nuns and brothers and settled people in marginal areas.  After the world wars, we moved to a situation where the incentives are heavily anti-children, with corporate and employment structures practically punish parents for having kids. Kids are essential for society, in a way they are the reason the society exists in the first place, but they are not optimal for the company/institution that employs the parents.  This is the incentive structure that needs to change, but I can't really propose a method for this due to ignorance.  I can observe, but not necessarily understand :-)

I also think that all the built areas in future space settlements will need to be great places to live, or they will not exist.  It is simpler to send robots and use fly in fly out intervention teams otherwise.  So I see space settlement as an extension of the best places in the world, so that these type of places can be accessible to more people.  My intuition is that for space settlement to work, it will have to attract immigrants, rather than promote high population growth.  And the Earth would be a great source for these immigrants.




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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #29 on: 01/15/2024 07:39 pm »
...
I think I mostly agree with the authors:
1) Go big, small won't work.
2) Space settlement is not a plan B. It may eventually turn into one in the longest time.
3) Non rotating space stations are not going to be very popular destination, or high volume.
4) Radiation protection is absolutely required as soon as you leave LEO.
5) The Moon and Mars surfaces are not the best places to live.
6) Space powder beamed to Earth probably won't work as a revenue source.
7) Space mining is risky at best, and mostly makes sense for space settlements, not for the Earth, which already has plenty of everything.
8) Space will not solve the Earth's problems. But it can help a bit.
...
I mostly agree with these points.

Some of these are highly subjective, though. Like #5. Some people REALLY LIKE the desert. Or living on a mountain. Or living in Minnesota or Iceland. Humanity can *make* places nice to live, and a ton of whether it's nice or not is subjective. Yes, probably most people would like a Mediterranean climate or northern California weather. Not everyone!

#6... I agree with the "probably," but I also think it's becoming possible. For instance, I believe it's possible for SBSP to compete with terrestrial nuclear power. This is worth a shot. The O'Neillians are too dependent on space mining and SBSP as rationales. I think the Muskian "because it's cool" is more durable.

I also think the radiation situation is not that bad on Mars. I think the radiation risk is usually exaggerated.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2024 07:41 pm by Robotbeat »
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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #30 on: 01/15/2024 07:41 pm »
In Quebec, where I have actual numbers, the population growth rate decreased dramatically as the available land area was filled up. 

My limited understanding of this issue is that the primary factor in reduced reproduction rates is female education--where women were educated, reproduction rates dropped dramatically. Of course there are a lot of sub-factors in that relationship, but it is apparently the primary one.

I see several big problems with reproductive rates on a space settlement. The first is that children are incredibly resource intensive, and are not productive until at least their teens. If a settlement decides that it is okay to send children off to toil in the thorium mines of Mars when they turn 13, that still leaves 12 years of them using resources on Mars. From a simple resource-utilization standpoint, an adult who is productive for 12 years while using resources is a better bet, so what incentive does the settlement have to actually support children? In addition, another factor is whether people producing offspring will believe that those offspring will be healthy. If you think that a child might be born malformed due to radiation, would you risk it? So it seems that in order to have a settlement actually produce children would require a high level of development, both to support them, but also to assure that they would be healthy.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #31 on: 01/15/2024 07:43 pm »
"Company town" isn't the only way to do things. I think Svalbard should be looked at as a better model.
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Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #32 on: 01/15/2024 08:56 pm »
In Quebec, where I have actual numbers, the population growth rate decreased dramatically as the available land area was filled up. 

My limited understanding of this issue is that the primary factor in reduced reproduction rates is female education--where women were educated, reproduction rates dropped dramatically. Of course there are a lot of sub-factors in that relationship, but it is apparently the primary one.

I see several big problems with reproductive rates on a space settlement. The first is that children are incredibly resource intensive, and are not productive until at least their teens. If a settlement decides that it is okay to send children off to toil in the thorium mines of Mars when they turn 13, that still leaves 12 years of them using resources on Mars. From a simple resource-utilization standpoint, an adult who is productive for 12 years while using resources is a better bet, so what incentive does the settlement have to actually support children? In addition, another factor is whether people producing offspring will believe that those offspring will be healthy. If you think that a child might be born malformed due to radiation, would you risk it? So it seems that in order to have a settlement actually produce children would require a high level of development, both to support them, but also to assure that they would be healthy.
I don't think there will be Thorium mines on Mars, or anything involving children's work  ;)
I think you make the point quite well that for resource mining there is no interest in families.  Ideally, no humans at all.
You don't need to use humans for labor work, it's the most absurd waste of their potential.  A human can output at best a few hundred watts, and requires food any number of incredibly wasteful facilities.  Robots are so much better, and never complain.
No if we have settlements in space, they will be places mainly to live, and need to offer the best possible quality of life.  Because otherwise, anywhere on Earth is indeed better.  I think that the only settlement that can happen will be human centric, and the production has to be for the humans that go into space in the first place.
If you do not produce children you don't have a settlement, at best you have a work camp.  There's no future in that.

Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #33 on: 01/15/2024 09:16 pm »
"Company town" isn't the only way to do things. I think Svalbard should be looked at as a better model.

Looking at Wiki, it is a company town.  No one owns their house, a typical aspect of a company town.  If the coal runs out, there is no value to the houses, so no one would want to own a house there.
The population growth is nil.  That is hardly the proof of a active settlement. Researchers are fly in fly out.  There seems to be no potential growth there, it mainly exists because coal is a valuable product.  No coal, no people. 
As an example of development into occupying space, it's a great demonstration that it is incredibly unlikely that this type of settlement could expand significantly.  This is exactly the way expansion into space will not happen.
If we want a permanent and significant expansion into space, then we need to make living is space an attractive place to live and grow and have children.  Otherwise, it'll never get much of anywhere.

Northern Canada has unbelievable amounts of space.  The population density is often under 1 person per km2.  Space is way worse.  However, the space settlement itself can be a great place to live, if the energy can be made available and the resources assembled sufficiently economically.
The builders of Svalbard are only interested in offering the minimum economical value and quality of life to keep humans in place because they want the coal.  The house seem cheap, and there are no lovely parks with colorful birds.  In a space settlement there isn't even coal.  the only likely value will be the space settlement itself.  The question is, can it be made great enough that it can attract people, and therefore become a self perpetuating system?  In other words, the mining that must be done needs to serve the space settlement, not an absentee owner.



Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #34 on: 01/15/2024 09:29 pm »
...
I think I mostly agree with the authors:
1) Go big, small won't work.
2) Space settlement is not a plan B. It may eventually turn into one in the longest time.
3) Non rotating space stations are not going to be very popular destination, or high volume.
4) Radiation protection is absolutely required as soon as you leave LEO.
5) The Moon and Mars surfaces are not the best places to live.
6) Space powder beamed to Earth probably won't work as a revenue source.
7) Space mining is risky at best, and mostly makes sense for space settlements, not for the Earth, which already has plenty of everything.
8) Space will not solve the Earth's problems. But it can help a bit.
...
I mostly agree with these points.

Some of these are highly subjective, though. Like #5. Some people REALLY LIKE the desert. Or living on a mountain. Or living in Minnesota or Iceland. Humanity can *make* places nice to live, and a ton of whether it's nice or not is subjective. Yes, probably most people would like a Mediterranean climate or northern California weather. Not everyone!

#6... I agree with the "probably," but I also think it's becoming possible. For instance, I believe it's possible for SBSP to compete with terrestrial nuclear power. This is worth a shot. The O'Neillians are too dependent on space mining and SBSP as rationales. I think the Muskian "because it's cool" is more durable.

I also think the radiation situation is not that bad on Mars. I think the radiation risk is usually exaggerated.
#5, sure some people may live on Mars and like it.  Most won't though, unless Mars habitats are as nice as a sunny day in California.  Or Montreal.
#6  If space power become viable, it probably won't work as a population magnet, however.  It'll probably be cheaper to use robots and visit only from time to time.
I tend to agree that Mars is a maybe, when I don't think about the effect of reduced gravity.  We don't know yet and perhaps reduced gravity will be a solvable issue.
I think that the best way to have people live in space is to have it more fun, more practical, less stressful and better in every way ;-)  Lots of energy and easily available resources can help a lot, but there remains a big gap from 'here' to 'there'.

Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #35 on: 01/15/2024 09:43 pm »

There are so many contradictions in the advocacy for space settlement, like this belief that it's going to be very open and democratic, except that anybody who freeloads will be using up valuable resources and will probably get pushed out an airlock (when you think about how many limited resources would go into supporting a prisoner in a jail, capital punishment may be applied to many crimes). And the whole argument about infinite resources is out of whack, ignoring the fact that many basic resources, like air and water, will be hard to obtain. It's a very utopian and naive vision.
Why on Earth would people go there if it's so bad?  What would be the point?  Why would they stay if Earth was available?  Why would evil space corporations use humans at all when robots and solar/nuclear power can do a better job, without all the mess?  Kids are incredibly expensive to raise and maintain compared to any near future production technology.  So why have them?  Why have people in space at all?  just to push buttons and procure judgement in complex situations?  We don't even need people do drive rockets, what can they be good for up there?
95% of all resources used on Earth are rock and iron.  Are those that hard to get from asteroids?  I'll agree that nitrogen will be a pain, but it is infinitely recyclable, as are all things.  Oxygen will quickly become a waste product, not a resource.

Do we really want to have sweatshops in orbit?  It seems like such a situation will always be cheaper to do on Earth.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #36 on: 01/15/2024 10:56 pm »
I don't think there will be Thorium mines on Mars, or anything involving children's work  ;)
I think you make the point quite well that for resource mining there is no interest in families.  Ideally, no humans at all.
You don't need to use humans for labor work, it's the most absurd waste of their potential.  A human can output at best a few

I think you're missing my point, so let me restate it: at least for a long period of time, anybody who goes to a space settlement is going to have to work, they are going to have to produce. That doesn't necessarily mean digging iron ore. They can be doctors, technicians, robot operators, farmers (or hydroponics technicians, if you prefer), spacesuit cleaners, or other useful professions. But there's not going to be much ability to support people who consume scarce resources and don't actually produce anything. That's what will make children hard to incorporate into such a settlement. That also goes back to my earlier comment about what happens with people who break the law. There's going to be a pretty harsh punishment system where anybody who is deemed dangerous may be executed, because keeping them in jail uses up too many resources.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #37 on: 01/15/2024 11:46 pm »
[...] at least for a long period of time, anybody who goes to a space settlement is going to have to work, they are going to have to produce.

This assumes most resources consumed in a settlement are produced at the settlement. What's the evidence that will be the case? Couldn't wealthy immigrants use their Earth-dollars to purchase transport of goods from Earth to the settlement? Even easier: a bank wire transfer!

Which will be less expensive in the settlement, a kg of pinto beans produced locally, or kg of pinto beans imported from Earth?
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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #38 on: 01/16/2024 12:34 am »
[...] at least for a long period of time, anybody who goes to a space settlement is going to have to work, they are going to have to produce.

This assumes most resources consumed in a settlement are produced at the settlement. What's the evidence that will be the case? Couldn't wealthy immigrants use their Earth-dollars to purchase transport of goods from Earth to the settlement? Even easier: a bank wire transfer!

Which will be less expensive in the settlement, a kg of pinto beans produced locally, or kg of pinto beans imported from Earth?
Transportation and energy costs.  Except for very small installations, it will be about 1000 times cheaper to import materials from the Moon than from Earth, and probably a similar ratio for local food and goods compared to Earth food. 

The joined spreadsheet has the transportation cost and some production cost calculations. 
Although the spreadsheet presents fixed numbers, reality has a huge spread arount these values, from way more expensive if self replicating factories never happen and mass drivers are a failed technolgy, to lower than these costs if entirely self replicating factories and space elevators can actually be built.


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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #39 on: 01/16/2024 01:00 am »
This assumes most resources consumed in a settlement are produced at the settlement.

Did you read beyond that sentence you quoted? It doesn't look like you did. I mentioned a whole bunch of things people could do, like be doctors, technicians, etc. But what they won't be able to do is sit around doing nothing.


Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #40 on: 01/16/2024 01:04 am »
I don't think there will be Thorium mines on Mars, or anything involving children's work  ;)
I think you make the point quite well that for resource mining there is no interest in families.  Ideally, no humans at all.
You don't need to use humans for labor work, it's the most absurd waste of their potential.  A human can output at best a few

I think you're missing my point, so let me restate it: at least for a long period of time, anybody who goes to a space settlement is going to have to work, they are going to have to produce. That doesn't necessarily mean digging iron ore. They can be doctors, technicians, robot operators, farmers (or hydroponics technicians, if you prefer), spacesuit cleaners, or other useful professions. But there's not going to be much ability to support people who consume scarce resources and don't actually produce anything. That's what will make children hard to incorporate into such a settlement. That also goes back to my earlier comment about what happens with people who break the law. There's going to be a pretty harsh punishment system where anybody who is deemed dangerous may be executed, because keeping them in jail uses up too many resources.
Well yes, but who are they producing for?  Why are they working?  What are they building?  Most people on Earth these days produce services.  Are they all uselss freeloaders?  Are only 'producers' real people?  I'm exagerating of course, but I think that the transfer from frontier to suburbia will be the quickest one in history!

People who break the law will be given sentences and restraints, and allowed to work or be sent back to Earth. The cost of someone in prison is actually fairly trivial compared to many things.  Since there will be few products sent down to Earth, the vehicles going up will return fairly empty.  So putting prisoneers on these vehicles, or bored people that don't like space or simple returnees, and sending them back to Earth will be the simplest solution.
What can I say, I'm an optimist  ;D
« Last Edit: 01/16/2024 01:27 am by lamontagne »

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #41 on: 01/16/2024 01:05 am »
This assumes most resources consumed in a settlement are produced at the settlement.

Did you read beyond that sentence you quoted?

Apologies for the quote trimming. We agree that settlers will be providing both goods and services.
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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #42 on: 01/16/2024 01:27 am »
This assumes most resources consumed in a settlement are produced at the settlement.

Did you read beyond that sentence you quoted? It doesn't look like you did. I mentioned a whole bunch of things people could do, like be doctors, technicians, etc. But what they won't be able to do is sit around doing nothing.
I think there will be a number of retirees.  Probably fairly active retirees, but still.
I aboslutely agree that there will be places that don't have populations, only workers.   But these are not viable settlements, just work sites.  I'm angling towards real settlements, with kids and old people and life.  A City on Mars (or in space) needs to be a city, i.e. a population center with hundreds or square kilometers of food production around it, interesting sees to see.  Ideally with a real high standard of living that doesn't harm the Earth.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #43 on: 01/16/2024 03:02 am »
I think there will be a number of retirees.

Eventually that seems inevitable. Unless — as in Soylent Green — aging settlers all decide to "return to the home of God." I suppose that decision could also be made by (or for) settlers who experience injuries or other medical conditions which make them no longer able to contribute to the settlement.
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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #44 on: 01/16/2024 03:14 am »
I think there will be a number of retirees.

Eventually that seems inevitable. Unless — as in Soylent Green — aging settlers all decide to "return to the home of God." I suppose that decision could also be made by (or for) settlers who experience injuries or other medical conditions which make them no longer able to contribute to the settlement.


My days of not taking you guys seriously are certainly coming to a middle.

Offline thespacecow

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #45 on: 01/16/2024 04:24 am »
This a great example of how the silicon valley tech bro mindset takes over these types of things and doesn't consider all of the other human aspects like psychology, social issues, etc. They believe that technology will be the solution for basically everything. Extremely flawed logic.

No, it's not flawed logic at all, technology has been and will be solving basically every problem in society, that's a fact. For example renewable energy tech (and probably geo-engineering) is what will solve climate change, not stupid protests or "ending capitalism".

And dunking those who's actually solving problems in society using technology as "tech bro" is just stupid, without the "tech bros" you wouldn't even be speaking here.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2024 04:25 am by thespacecow »

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #46 on: 01/16/2024 05:32 am »
Review by Robert Zubrin:

https://quillette.com/2023/12/04/why-we-should-go-to-mars/

No surprise, he’s not a fan!
He's not a fan because he has a logical brain.  The authors of the book do not.

For me, settling Mars has never been a question of if.  It has always been a question of when and how provided we don't destroy ourselves first.

Offline Star One

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #47 on: 01/16/2024 10:24 am »
Peter Hague's the critic of the book, part two: https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-ii

It's increasing clear to me that this recent surge of anti-space settlement literature is nothing but a symptom of EDS.

If you mean so-called "Elon Derangement Syndrome" (EDS), then you are absolutely wrong.

The idea of space settlement has been around for a lot longer than the period of time since SpaceX (i.e. Elon Musk) actually started looking like it might be able to somehow play a part in future space settlement.

However remember that SpaceX itself has only ever been pitched as a low-cost transportation entity to ENABLE space settlements (starting with Mars), so opinions about whether space settlements can succeed are completely separate from the ability to move people and cargo to space settlements.

For instance, we have had the ability to move people and cargo to locations under water here on Earth for decades, but despite predictions that we would have cities under the oceans, it hasn't happened.

Personally I WANT space settlement to happen, and I WANT humans to expand out into space. And I am always looking for facts, information and opinion that can help make that happen.

Apparently this book may not be a source of facts or information to make help that happen, but that doesn't mean I won't stop doing what I can to support future space settlement.

My $0.02
You missed his point I think. Of course the idea of space settlement has far preceded Musk. But the current flowering of anti-space-settlement literature (articles and books) is a direct response to billionaires like Musk popularizing it and, to some degree, making it more realistic by founding space launch and technology companies.

It’s reactionary. And I think this is correct, at least to some degree. A lot of people who would’ve been “rah, rah, send humans to Mars, that’s so cool” are down on the idea because it’s not NASA leading it as much but instead people they don’t like.

It’s a really stupid trend, and people who do this sort of reactionary thing have lost a lot of my respect (it shows how much their thought and logic process is influenced by political fads and peer pressure). But Musk doesn’t really do space settlement any favors by engaging in politically charged culture war stuff, either.
I’d add that should people really be looking to and noting the opinions of really rich and famous people whoever they might be. But also that such people have a responsibility to think first before putting it out to the whole wide world.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #48 on: 01/16/2024 10:28 am »
Quote
"Elon Derangement Syndrome"

Okay, but - unfortunately - it works both way. It has a mirror, reverse syndrome. "Elon can't be wrong, he is a visionary, blah blah blah".
The proverbial mote & beam.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mote_and_the_Beam

Funny how the fhanbioys imagined EDS and  ignored their own EDS : working the opposite way.
It seems with some if the person saying something is rich and famous then their critical facilities seem to shut down.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #49 on: 01/16/2024 11:44 am »
Here you go, the complete opposite:

https://www.amazon.com/New-World-Mars-Create-Planet/dp/1635768802?keywords=The+New+World+on+Mars&qid=1705190459&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=collectspace&linkId=1e5980c32323a5c53362bae5dacc8444&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl


Blackstar, could you post this as a stand-alone thread? I think it definitely deserves it. I like his books. Uneven quality throughout them, but always interesting and thought-provoking.

Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #50 on: 01/16/2024 01:23 pm »
I think there will be a number of retirees.

Eventually that seems inevitable. Unless — as in Soylent Green — aging settlers all decide to "return to the home of God." I suppose that decision could also be made by (or for) settlers who experience injuries or other medical conditions which make them no longer able to contribute to the settlement.
The food content of a human is over rated  ;)  Just general plant production produces huge amounts of non edible biomass.  To humans.  This biomass can be converted by chickens or fish into much less morally difficult to eat chicken and fillets, by many orders of magnitude.  So there is no real gain in eating or composting humans.  It might be a ritual, but the effects would be more symbolic than real.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2024 01:25 pm by lamontagne »

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #51 on: 01/16/2024 01:27 pm »
Here you go, the complete opposite:

https://www.amazon.com/New-World-Mars-Create-Planet/dp/1635768802?keywords=The+New+World+on+Mars&qid=1705190459&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=collectspace&linkId=1e5980c32323a5c53362bae5dacc8444&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl


Blackstar, could you post this as a stand-alone thread? I think it definitely deserves it. I like his books. Uneven quality throughout them, but always interesting and thought-provoking.

The book is not available yet. When it becomes available, that would be a good time to create a separate thread.

Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #52 on: 01/16/2024 01:34 pm »
Review by Robert Zubrin:

https://quillette.com/2023/12/04/why-we-should-go-to-mars/

No surprise, he’s not a fan!
He's not a fan because he has a logical brain.  The authors of the book do not.

For me, settling Mars has never been a question of if.  It has always been a question of when and how provided we don't destroy ourselves first.
He's not a fan and he gets different results because he is working from different premises.  There is no point in attacking this book on the quality of the people writing it, this never gets anywhere.  It's more valuable to question the quality of the arguments. 
And this book will sell many more copies than Robert's excellent ones, partly because of the semi informal tone.  This could also be used to more effect by advocates, rather than the 'they're not logical' false argument.  A lot of the book is factually correct.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #53 on: 01/16/2024 02:58 pm »
Review by Robert Zubrin:

https://quillette.com/2023/12/04/why-we-should-go-to-mars/

No surprise, he’s not a fan!
He's not a fan because he has a logical brain.  The authors of the book do not.

For me, settling Mars has never been a question of if.  It has always been a question of when and how provided we don't destroy ourselves first.
He's not a fan and he gets different results because he is working from different premises.  There is no point in attacking this book on the quality of the people writing it, this never gets anywhere.  It's more valuable to question the quality of the arguments. 
And this book will sell many more copies than Robert's excellent ones, partly because of the semi informal tone.  This could also be used to more effect by advocates, rather than the 'they're not logical' false argument.  A lot of the book is factually correct.
Illogical conclusions can still be made from from factually correct elements.  Assuming problems stated can't be resolved is to ignore the history of human innovation.

Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #54 on: 01/16/2024 04:13 pm »
Review by Robert Zubrin:

https://quillette.com/2023/12/04/why-we-should-go-to-mars/

No surprise, he’s not a fan!
He's not a fan because he has a logical brain.  The authors of the book do not.

For me, settling Mars has never been a question of if.  It has always been a question of when and how provided we don't destroy ourselves first.
He's not a fan and he gets different results because he is working from different premises.  There is no point in attacking this book on the quality of the people writing it, this never gets anywhere.  It's more valuable to question the quality of the arguments. 
And this book will sell many more copies than Robert's excellent ones, partly because of the semi informal tone.  This could also be used to more effect by advocates, rather than the 'they're not logical' false argument.  A lot of the book is factually correct.
Illogical conclusions can still be made from from factually correct elements.  Assuming problems stated can't be resolved is to ignore the history of human innovation.
Of course!  But having read the book, they actually conclude that Space settlement is possible and a worthy goal.  They are just kind of bummed that the space community has done a such a poor job of presenting the goal, and in setting unreasonable expectations and proposing a number of less than convincing arguments.
The literally call for a mobilization to better explain the goal, because they tried, and they failed to find the right knowledge. 




Offline Emmettvonbrown

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #55 on: 01/16/2024 06:48 pm »
Review by Robert Zubrin:

https://quillette.com/2023/12/04/why-we-should-go-to-mars/

No surprise, he’s not a fan!
He's not a fan because he has a logical brain.  The authors of the book do not.

For me, settling Mars has never been a question of if.  It has always been a question of when and how provided we don't destroy ourselves first.
He's not a fan and he gets different results because he is working from different premises.  There is no point in attacking this book on the quality of the people writing it, this never gets anywhere.  It's more valuable to question the quality of the arguments. 
And this book will sell many more copies than Robert's excellent ones, partly because of the semi informal tone.  This could also be used to more effect by advocates, rather than the 'they're not logical' false argument.  A lot of the book is factually correct.
Illogical conclusions can still be made from from factually correct elements.  Assuming problems stated can't be resolved is to ignore the history of human innovation.

Obtuse (and arrogant, also circular) reasoning(s) really doesn't help either.

There are many answers in this thread that are at the "cry baby" level. Booo-hooo, here is a book that dare cast doubt on the viability of Mars colonization. Shock, burn the heretics, BURN THEM !

Quote
  There is no point in attacking this book on the quality of the people writing it, this never gets anywhere.  It's more valuable to question the quality of the arguments.

This. A hundred percent.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #56 on: 01/16/2024 07:34 pm »
I think there will be a number of retirees.

Eventually that seems inevitable. Unless — as in Soylent Green — aging settlers all decide to "return to the home of God." I suppose that decision could also be made by (or for) settlers who experience injuries or other medical conditions which make them no longer able to contribute to the settlement.
The food content of a human is over rated  ;)  Just general plant production produces huge amounts of non edible biomass.  To humans.  This biomass can be converted by chickens or fish into much less morally difficult to eat chicken and fillets, by many orders of magnitude.  So there is no real gain in eating or composting humans.  It might be a ritual, but the effects would be more symbolic than real.

Yes, clearly the Soylent Green comment should have included a winky-face emoticon. The deeper point about what happens to settlers whose medical condition prevents them from contributing directly to production of the goods and services needed at the settlement is still open. Some likely feel they should be returned to Earth for care. Perhaps some even feel every early settlement inhabitant should rotate through a tour of duty and then return to Earth.

On a side note, the non-edible biomass presents ethical issues for vegans! Can it also be fed to worms or something and thus provide additional enriched soil for expanded agriculture?
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Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #57 on: 01/16/2024 08:36 pm »
I think there will be a number of retirees.

Eventually that seems inevitable. Unless — as in Soylent Green — aging settlers all decide to "return to the home of God." I suppose that decision could also be made by (or for) settlers who experience injuries or other medical conditions which make them no longer able to contribute to the settlement.
The food content of a human is over rated  ;)  Just general plant production produces huge amounts of non edible biomass.  To humans.  This biomass can be converted by chickens or fish into much less morally difficult to eat chicken and fillets, by many orders of magnitude.  So there is no real gain in eating or composting humans.  It might be a ritual, but the effects would be more symbolic than real.

Yes, clearly the Soylent Green comment should have included a winky-face emoticon. The deeper point about what happens to settlers whose medical condition prevents them from contributing directly to production of the goods and services needed at the settlement is still open. Some likely feel they should be returned to Earth for care. Perhaps some even feel every early settlement inhabitant should rotate through a tour of duty and then return to Earth.

On a side note, the non-edible biomass presents ethical issues for vegans! Can it also be fed to worms or something and thus provide additional enriched soil for expanded agriculture?
It's a good point.  I expect this will change with time as the settlement grows and adds services.  As often, the question will be what might be the most dangerous, limited local health care or the transportation back home itself.  Having non productive people is not such a large burden, except perhaps for a tiny base.
Edible biomass is super versatile.  Most of it will go to compost to grow more soil, some will be used to create goods, so yes, worms and bacteria.  Mars should be Vegan friendly, as it's a less energy intense way of producing food.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #58 on: 01/17/2024 02:16 am »
Yes, clearly the Soylent Green comment should have included a winky-face emoticon. The deeper point about what happens to settlers whose medical condition prevents them from contributing directly to production of the goods and services needed at the settlement is still open. Some likely feel they should be returned to Earth for care. Perhaps some even feel every early settlement inhabitant should rotate through a tour of duty and then return to Earth.

On a side note, the non-edible biomass presents ethical issues for vegans! Can it also be fed to worms or something and thus provide additional enriched soil for expanded agriculture?

You guys have given me the seeds of a great story: Elon Musk sets up a colony on Mars to serve as a retirement community (a great idea suggested in this very thread!). Starships fly to Mars filled with rich retirees, who think that they're going to live out their golden years on Mars.

Except... when they arrive, they are immediately turned into food for the real settlers.

I'm copyrighting this story.

Offline lamontagne

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #59 on: 01/17/2024 02:44 am »
Yes, clearly the Soylent Green comment should have included a winky-face emoticon. The deeper point about what happens to settlers whose medical condition prevents them from contributing directly to production of the goods and services needed at the settlement is still open. Some likely feel they should be returned to Earth for care. Perhaps some even feel every early settlement inhabitant should rotate through a tour of duty and then return to Earth.

On a side note, the non-edible biomass presents ethical issues for vegans! Can it also be fed to worms or something and thus provide additional enriched soil for expanded agriculture?

You guys have given me the seeds of a great story: Elon Musk sets up a colony on Mars to serve as a retirement community (a great idea suggested in this very thread!). Starships fly to Mars filled with rich retirees, who think that they're going to live out their golden years on Mars.

Except... when they arrive, they are immediately turned into food for the real settlers.

I'm copyrighting this story.
Ok SDSDS, quick, make a copy of this thread.  If Blackstar ever writes his story and sells it as a movie for 1 000 000 $. we can sue the pants off him for prior art  ;D
« Last Edit: 01/17/2024 02:45 am by lamontagne »

Offline Emmettvonbrown

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #60 on: 01/17/2024 06:42 am »
ROTFLMAO. You guys are great.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #61 on: 01/17/2024 04:08 pm »
Ok SDSDS, quick, make a copy of this thread.  If Blackstar ever writes his story and sells it as a movie for 1 000 000 $. we can sue the pants off him for prior art  ;D


You guys will be at the top of the menu.

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #62 on: 02/24/2024 12:22 pm »
Peter Hague's the critic of the book, part three: https://planetocracy.substack.com/p/review-of-a-city-on-mars-part-iii

Concluding thoughts is right on the mark:

Quote
At the end of the book, the Weinersmiths complain about how critics are treated by space advocates

Quote
We believe a functioning scientific community should welcome dissent that shows up with citations, but in the space-settlement community, people with negative views about aspects of space settlement are sometimes called idiots or “anti-human” or worse.

Putting aside the fact that they themselves have not shown up with proper citations, perhaps they should reexamine their own style of discussion before questioning others in this regard? For instance, they suggest people might “hate” their conclusions, rather than disagree with them or find flaw in them - as if their critics must only be driven by emotion.

The subtitle of this book really does set the tone - the authors clearly come across as believing they are the first people to really think about these topics. Repeatedly it comes across that they simply haven’t read what people have already written on a topic. For instance, in their response to the first part of this review, they asserted that settlement of Low Earth Orbit couldn’t be done. There is an entire literature on this that they appear to have missed - notably The High Frontier: An Easier Way by Tom Marotta and Al Globus.

The future they advocates is a form of highly bureaucratic socialism across the entire solar system. A place where you must ask for permission to do anything of significance, rather than the state (or world government as the Weinersmiths prefer) needing a reason to stop you. All justified by an unreasonable fear that someone somewhere might turn evil and wipe out humanity if they are not continuously monitored and controlled - a sort of perversion of the harm principle where “your rights end where my neuroses begin”. Those offering alternate visions are dismissed as “libertarian” - used here as a slur, and referring to more or less anybody who believes in private property.

Overall, A City on Mars is a disappointment - its good for any advocacy group to have critics, in order to make sure they aren’t simply reinforcing their own errors and to sharpen their arguments, but I haven’t found good criticism here. The authors have obviously spent a lot of time researching things of interest to them (space toilet antics for instance) but skipped significant parts of the research, and have clearly not tested their own argumentation against critics.

I’ve not had much fun with this review (hence why I took so long to get the last part out). It is unfortunate that the controversy surrounding Elon Musk has given this sort of book fertile ground in the media, who don’t push back against it at all. Hopefully material progress in space will simply make it redundant in a few years.

Offline Emmettvonbrown

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #63 on: 02/24/2024 01:24 pm »
Congrats, you've find a critic that confirm your biases, echo chamber style !

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #64 on: 02/25/2024 09:31 pm »
Yes, clearly the Soylent Green comment should have included a winky-face emoticon. The deeper point about what happens to settlers whose medical condition prevents them from contributing directly to production of the goods and services needed at the settlement is still open. Some likely feel they should be returned to Earth for care. Perhaps some even feel every early settlement inhabitant should rotate through a tour of duty and then return to Earth.

On a side note, the non-edible biomass presents ethical issues for vegans! Can it also be fed to worms or something and thus provide additional enriched soil for expanded agriculture?

You guys have given me the seeds of a great story: Elon Musk sets up a colony on Mars to serve as a retirement community (a great idea suggested in this very thread!). Starships fly to Mars filled with rich retirees, who think that they're going to live out their golden years on Mars.

Except... when they arrive, they are immediately turned into food for the real settlers.

I'm copyrighting this story.

Do you already know this one?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Serve_Man

"To Serve Man"

Offline Emmettvonbrown

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #65 on: 03/02/2024 06:38 pm »
"To serve man." With honor... and potatoes.  ;D

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #66 on: 06/23/2024 05:14 pm »
Moderator:
Ad hominem attacks are not allowed here.
Post deleted.
« Last Edit: 06/23/2024 05:18 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #67 on: 07/04/2024 12:02 pm »
The National Space Society's Ad Astra magazine has an article about the book. Although he says that the book gets a lot of things wrong, he points out that one thing it demonstrates is that the pro-space community hasn't done a good job of convincing people that many of their ideas, like space based solar power, are valid.
« Last Edit: 07/04/2024 12:03 pm by Blackstar »

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #68 on: 07/16/2024 06:28 am »
The 2024 Hugo Awards will be presented at Glasgow 2024, a Worldcon for Our Futures, in Glasgow, Scotland on August 11, 2024.

A City on Mars by Kelly Weinersmith and Zach Weinersmith made the 'short-list' of nominees in the Best Related Work category.

Just a heads-up for any Hugo voters: a copy marked 'not for distribution' is included in your voter packet. For others: the Hugos were first presented in 1953 and have been awarded every year since 1955 by the members of the World Science Fiction Society. You too can become a member!
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Book: A City on Mars by Kelly & Zach Weinersmith
« Reply #69 on: 07/16/2024 03:34 pm »
Makes sense it’s nominated for science fiction!
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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