Who will get to Mars first, USA or China?

[Tywin]

With the new Lunar race on fire, it seems that China is also looking ahead in time, to Mars, who will get there first?

[TrevorMonty]

USA has been there done that multiple times.

[AllenB]

USA has been there done that multiple times.

Seems safe to assume that we're talking about landing *people* on Mars.

Having said that, I voted United States. You can debate the specifics, but IMHO we have at least a plausible path to Mars in SpaceX/Starship. And if/when things start looking good, I'll bet that some NASA money shows up to help.

I'm not aware of any plausible near-term path forward from China, but perhaps I've missed it?

[deltaV]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

[trimeta]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

If/when a Starship first lands on Mars carrying humans, they will have NASA worms on their shoulders, so it certainly counts.

[Hog]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

If/when a Starship first lands on Mars carrying humans, they will have NASA worms on their shoulders, so it certainly counts.

I hope its in my lifetime. I hope to see Halley's Comet, again. C'mon 2061.

[D_Dom]

My grandmother saw it twice, pretty awesome experience for her. I am not sure I will make it to 102 but sure, come on 2061! Watched grainy, black and white TV broadcast as men walked on the moon. I thought for sure Mars was the logical next step, GO SpaceX!

[jasonjulius1122]

We cannot say for certain whether China or the USA will be the first to reach Mars. Both countries have active space exploration programs and big ambitions. The race to Mars is exciting and competitive, and only time will tell who will come out on top.

[jongoff]

If we're talking about crewed missions, I still think NASA is way ahead of China, even without factoring in SpaceX. I don't think SpaceX is as close to sending a crewed mission to Mars as some of their more fervent fans think, but if they can get a reusable Starship working, even if their baseline architecture doesn't pan out, there are a crap ton of options once you have fully-reusable launch on the table. Plus, at least so far, China has stuck to just copying the worst ideas from past NASA programs. I'll start worrying about them winning if they start embracing rapid reuse, in-space refueling, etc.

~Jon

[Robotbeat]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

[AmigaClone]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

I can see SpaceX potentially attempting a crewed landing on Mars less than six years after Artemis 3 - if that mission, Polaris III, and DearMoon are all successful. Uncrewed SpaceX precursor missions would be launched earlier - although likely later than the HLS for Artemis 3 - unless one of those missions is also used to test large scale refueling.

[Hog]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

That drives home just how crucial these upcoming crewed missions will be.

[Vahe231991]

If the SpaceX Starship takes people to the Moon in the mid-2020s, then the CZ-9 could be the underdog given that it has not even reached full-scale development and the first flight of the CZ-9 is scheduled for the early 2030s.

[JulesVerneATV]

'Is the US forfeiting its Red Planet leadership to China's Mars Sample Return plan?'

https://www.space.com/astronomy/mars/is-the-us-forfeiting-its-red-planet-leadership-to-chinas-mars-sample-return-plan


Does an orbital station count as a win or do you have to land on the surface, like Russia or US Lockheed the first is the Mars Piloted Orbital Station, Red Planet space station or Soviet design also known as Marspost?


https://web.archive.org/web/20081108061810/http://epizodsspace.testpilot.ru/bibl/pil-ex-na-mars/obl.html

[saturnsky]

The US is forfeiting all leadership in space to China,,,lack of leadership, political infighting,,cancellation of major science programs,,,,its going to be interesting to see the finger pointing if China beats us to the Moon..

[JulesVerneATV]

Mars landed on Earth first?

The largest meteorite from Mars to Earth sold for $4.3 million
https://en.protothema.gr/2025/07/16/the-largest-meteorite-from-mars-to-earth-sold-for-4-3-million/

so Who got there first, lost forgotten Empires the Soviets, before the Rovers and before the Vikings there was Mariner 4 by the USA but the Soviets 'landed' a government that no longer exists, Russian Mars 3 probe 'Марс' on the 2nd day of December 1971, because the soviet probe transmitted for some seconds and delivered data these days it can be classed as a 'Partial Success'.


landing people? building towns, setting up a society and government and culture, making a self sufficient space farm, bio domes, raising family with AI humanoid robots inside a biosphere maybe that's a more interesting philosophical debate

[Kaputnik]

I missed this poll first time round but I have to say, at this moment in time, I'd put my money on China. They have a solid plan, and they're well in to development already.
The US could beat them if they had the will and the funding, and have a less ambitious architecture.

EDIT: my bad, failed to read the question properly. I think China will send the next crewed mission to the *moon*.

Mars? Anybody's guess at this point

[daedalus1]

I missed this poll first time round but I have to say, at this moment in time, I'd put my money on China. They have a solid plan, and they're well in to development already.
The US could beat them if they had the will and the funding, and have a less ambitious architecture.

What solid plan?

[catdlr]

I missed this poll first time round but I have to say, at this moment in time, I'd put my money on China. They have a solid plan, and they're well in to development already.
The US could beat them if they had the will and the funding, and have a less ambitious architecture.

What solid plan?

daedalus1

The notion is that China's announced timetable has achieved its expectations so far. It is a widely held notion that their future ambitions and any dates they have published will be met, based on history so far. For whatever reason, the government is supporting this with the necessary funds and staffing to achieve this.  If you want details, I've sent you the plans that China is following to achieve this. See your PM message from me.

Tony

Update: modified to remove the unnecessary personal remark at the end and clean up the thread.

[jongoff]

I voted USA originally, but am less optimistic now. If Isaacman's nomination hadn't been yanked, I think we'd still have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, but with probably at least another 6-12 months of having an acting administrator, I'm not sure the USA is the favorite for winning that race anymore. There absolutely are things a competent NASA Admin could do to improve the Pwin for the USA, but if we have to wait a year to get one, it may be too late.

~Jon