Author Topic: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024  (Read 30925 times)

Offline edkyle99

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Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« on: 02/22/2023 10:47 am »
« Last Edit: 09/22/2024 08:01 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Online owais.usmani

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Online owais.usmani

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #2 on: 02/22/2023 03:42 pm »
https://www.osnmedia.ru/world/bloomberg-v-ssha-oprovergli-dannye-ob-ispytanii-rf-mbr-vo-vremya-vizita-bajdena-v-kiev/

Quote
Bloomberg: US denies data on Russian ICBM test during Biden's visit to Kyiv

February 22, 2023, 12:37 pm - Public News Service - OSN
According to Bloomberg, the United States denied the information that Russia allegedly tested an intercontinental ballistic missile at a time when US President Joe Biden was in Kiev.

Earlier, CNN, citing sources, informed that Russia allegedly tested ICBMs during Biden's visit to Ukraine.

“Russia did not test ICBMs while Biden was in Kyiv,” a US official was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.

Recall, on February 24, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the start of a military special operation in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, retired General Andrey Gurulev expressed confidence that the suspension of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty "won't raise any questions." In his opinion, Russia cannot have any agreements with the United States .

I am unable to find the Bloomberg article which is the source for the above. Can anybody find and post it here?

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #3 on: 02/22/2023 03:45 pm »
https://www.osnmedia.ru/world/bloomberg-v-ssha-oprovergli-dannye-ob-ispytanii-rf-mbr-vo-vremya-vizita-bajdena-v-kiev/

Quote
Bloomberg: US denies data on Russian ICBM test during Biden's visit to Kyiv

February 22, 2023, 12:37 pm - Public News Service - OSN
According to Bloomberg, the United States denied the information that Russia allegedly tested an intercontinental ballistic missile at a time when US President Joe Biden was in Kiev.

Earlier, CNN, citing sources, informed that Russia allegedly tested ICBMs during Biden's visit to Ukraine.

“Russia did not test ICBMs while Biden was in Kyiv,” a US official was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.

Recall, on February 24, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the start of a military special operation in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, retired General Andrey Gurulev expressed confidence that the suspension of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty "won't raise any questions." In his opinion, Russia cannot have any agreements with the United States .

I am unable to find the Bloomberg article which is the source for the above. Can anybody find and post it here?
This might be the start of the public denial and geopolitical misinformation session.

Offline AnalogMan

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #4 on: 02/22/2023 04:11 pm »
https://www.osnmedia.ru/world/bloomberg-v-ssha-oprovergli-dannye-ob-ispytanii-rf-mbr-vo-vremya-vizita-bajdena-v-kiev/

Quote
Bloomberg: US denies data on Russian ICBM test during Biden's visit to Kyiv

February 22, 2023, 12:37 pm - Public News Service - OSN
According to Bloomberg, the United States denied the information that Russia allegedly tested an intercontinental ballistic missile at a time when US President Joe Biden was in Kiev.

Earlier, CNN, citing sources, informed that Russia allegedly tested ICBMs during Biden's visit to Ukraine.

“Russia did not test ICBMs while Biden was in Kyiv,” a US official was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.

Recall, on February 24, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the start of a military special operation in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, retired General Andrey Gurulev expressed confidence that the suspension of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty "won't raise any questions." In his opinion, Russia cannot have any agreements with the United States .

I am unable to find the Bloomberg article which is the source for the above. Can anybody find and post it here?

It was part of a live update page for February 22, 2023 (today).  Link may not work after today.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-22/ukraine-latest-biden-to-meet-east-european-leaders-backing-kyiv

No Russian ICBM Test While Biden Was in Kyiv: US Official (8:15 a.m.)

There was no intercontinental ballistic missile test by Russia while Biden was in Kyiv, according to a US defense official. The US was properly notified before Biden’s visit to Kyiv was public. Russia provided advance notice of this launch under its New START treaty obligations that it planned to test this missile, the official said. Such testing is routine and was not a surprise and the US did not deem the test a threat to it or its allies, the official added.

CNN reported earlier that Russia conducted an ICBM test while Biden was in Ukraine on Monday that appears to have failed, citing two unnamed US officials familiar with the matter.

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #5 on: 02/22/2023 06:26 pm »
https://www.osnmedia.ru/world/bloomberg-v-ssha-oprovergli-dannye-ob-ispytanii-rf-mbr-vo-vremya-vizita-bajdena-v-kiev/

Quote
Bloomberg: US denies data on Russian ICBM test during Biden's visit to Kyiv

February 22, 2023, 12:37 pm - Public News Service - OSN
According to Bloomberg, the United States denied the information that Russia allegedly tested an intercontinental ballistic missile at a time when US President Joe Biden was in Kiev.

Earlier, CNN, citing sources, informed that Russia allegedly tested ICBMs during Biden's visit to Ukraine.

“Russia did not test ICBMs while Biden was in Kyiv,” a US official was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.

Recall, on February 24, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the start of a military special operation in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, retired General Andrey Gurulev expressed confidence that the suspension of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty "won't raise any questions." In his opinion, Russia cannot have any agreements with the United States .

I am unable to find the Bloomberg article which is the source for the above. Can anybody find and post it here?

It was part of a live update page for February 22, 2023 (today).  Link may not work after today.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-22/ukraine-latest-biden-to-meet-east-european-leaders-backing-kyiv

No Russian ICBM Test While Biden Was in Kyiv: US Official (8:15 a.m.)

There was no intercontinental ballistic missile test by Russia while Biden was in Kyiv, according to a US defense official. The US was properly notified before Biden’s visit to Kyiv was public. Russia provided advance notice of this launch under its New START treaty obligations that it planned to test this missile, the official said. Such testing is routine and was not a surprise and the US did not deem the test a threat to it or its allies, the official added.

CNN reported earlier that Russia conducted an ICBM test while Biden was in Ukraine on Monday that appears to have failed, citing two unnamed US officials familiar with the matter.

I'm confused.

If there was no missile test, than what what the notice about?

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #6 on: 02/22/2023 07:41 pm »
Quote
I'm confused.

If there was no missile test, than what what the notice about?
I think the confusion was really about the date of the launch.  What US officials are now denying is that the launch took place while President Biden was in Ukraine.  Meanwhile, CNN's story came from "US officials familiar with the matter".  That story suggested that the test occurred "around the time of" Biden's visit.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 02/22/2023 07:41 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline AnalogMan

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #7 on: 02/22/2023 11:17 pm »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-launch-satan-ii-icbm-missile-failed-putin-new-start-nuclear-treaty/

Russian test launch of "Satan II" missile failed, U.S. says, as Putin suspends role in nuclear treaty

[…]
A U.S. official told CBS News that Russia carried out a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile on February 18, which failed. That launch came just two days before Mr. Biden arrived for an unannounced visit in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Moscow notified Washington of the launch in advance, as required under New START, American officials said, adding that the U.S. did not view the test as "a surprise" or as a threat to the United States.

The failed missile launch is believed to have been of the massive RS-28 Sarmat missile, known as the "Satan II" in the West. The Sarmat, one of Russia's next-generation nuclear capable missiles, tips the scales at over 200 tons and can carry multiple warheads, with a total estimated payload of 10 tons.
[…]

(my underline)

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #8 on: 02/24/2023 12:15 pm »
Quote
Some local (near Plesetsk cosmodrome) realised pics of a missile launch track. They approve there was an impact at 12.50 (09.50 UTC)  on 18 Feb. Some observers expected Sarmat ICBM launch on 17-25.
https://29.ru/text/gorod/2023/02/20/72073313/

"Impact" is a mistranslation. The eyewitness quoted here merely said he heard a loud noise around that time, not unlike the noise he usually hears during launches from Plesetsk. He lives just 30-40 km from Plesetsk, so he saw the missile shortly after liftoff. The failure is believed to have occurred later in the launch, during second stage operation. One poster on the "Novosti kosmonavtiki" forum mentioned a failure of the BSAU, which I understand stands for "On-Board Automatic Guidance and Control System". Hard to say though how reliable that information is.

There can be little doubt now that the Sarmat  launch indeed failed. The Ministry of Defense released a statement on the first Sarmat launch last April and even released a video of that, but this time there's nothing but silence. Putin would most likely have mentioned it in his State of the Union address had it been successful. The apparent failure didn't stop him from announcing two days ago that Sarmat will enter "combat duty" later this year.

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« Last Edit: 09/22/2024 08:00 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #10 on: 09/22/2024 04:03 pm »
New ICBM. Blew up in its silo.

Just happened a couple of days ago. You'll probably see some news stories about it soon.

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #11 on: 09/22/2024 05:57 pm »
https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1837889796980543826

Quote
Maxar collected new high-resolution satellite imagery yesterday (September 21st) that reveals the aftermath of a dramatic launch failure of a Russian RS-28 ICBM at a launch site in the Plesetsk cosmodrome. 📷@Maxar

Launch site before vs after

Quote
A large crater (approximately 62 meters wide) is visible at the launch silo and extensive damage in and around the launch pad can be seen which suggests that the missile exploded shortly after ignition or launch.
« Last Edit: 09/22/2024 05:57 pm by StraumliBlight »

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #12 on: 09/22/2024 09:27 pm »
Possibly, they were planning to use one of three new Sarmat trajectories that were the subject of an environmental impact assessment report published last year. The related documentation is available here (the name Sarmat is not used, only "Complex 128", one of the code names for the project):

https://www.mirniy.ru/info/ads/23232-uvedomlenie-o-provedenii-obschestvennyh-obsuzhdeniy.html

See the attached map: trajectory 5 is from Plesetsk to the Pacific Ocean and trajectories 6.1 and 6.2 are from Plesetsk to a new test range near Severo-Yeniseiskiy in Siberia. Trajectory 6.2 looks rather odd and seems to involve some type of dogleg maneuver, which may be needed to evade ABM defense systems.

But at first glance I see no navigation warnings that correspond to any of the indicated drop zones, so either they were planning to use another trajectory or the launch was not yet imminent.


Offline VSECOTSPE

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #13 on: 09/22/2024 09:52 pm »

I read this was a test failure and that the RS-28 has had only one successful test (last year) out of four or five to date.  Brings into question Russia’s ability to replace the Satan, the last variant of which is over 35 years old, although I think there’s only 40-50 left.

I wonder the degree to which these failures are specific to the RS-28 test program or symptomatic of problems throughout Russia’s nuclear forces.  It’s one thing if we cross a red line for Putin and he pops off a couple to make a point.  We know how to respond to that.  It’s another if we know he ordered a nuclear launch but it didn’t go off, either because of a technical failure like this or because the chain of command refused to carry out the order.  I don’t think we know how to respond to that intel...

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #14 on: 09/23/2024 12:30 am »
Sarmat was a fierce Iron Age nomadic warrior tribe of the steppes.


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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #15 on: 09/23/2024 12:32 pm »

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #16 on: 09/23/2024 01:31 pm »


Of the five towers, only the one close to the silo got destroyed along with the nearby support structures. I made a slider video attached (just for fun).
PSA #3:  Paywall? View this video on how-to temporary Disable Java-Script: youtu.be/KvBv16tw-UM
A golden rule from Chris B:  "focus on what is being said, not disparage people who say it."

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #17 on: 09/23/2024 04:00 pm »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/23/russia-sarmat-icbm-disaster/

Satellite footage suggests Russia ICBM launch test was a disaster
The apparent launch failure raised questions about Russia’s military capabilities and put in a dent in the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling.
By Francesca Ebel
September 23, 2024 at 10:04 a.m. EDT

According to satellite photos, a Russian Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile probably detonated during a test earlier this month, raising questions about Russia’s military capabilities and putting a dent in the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling.

Maxar satellite images from Saturday appear to show a crater roughly 200 feet wide and extensive damage to the surrounding area at the launch silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region in northern Russia. Imagery recorded earlier this month does not show any visible damage to the site.

“A large crater (approximately 62 meters wide) is visible at the launch silo and extensive damage in and around the launchpad can be seen which suggests that the missile exploded shortly after ignition or launch,” George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, wrote on X. “We must not understate the importance of this launch failure vis-ŕ-vis the information war. … This a failure for a strategic Russian weapon system, but it is also an informational victory for Ukraine.”

Arms experts and open-source researchers said it is not clear whether the Sarmat failed during a launch or whether an accident occurred during fueling.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #18 on: 09/23/2024 04:07 pm »
That's a big crater that suggests to me an explosion in the silo.  If RS-28 is launched like Dnepr/R-36M, it would be a dry launch with engine ignition just above the silo.  Either there was an ignition failure and it fell back into the silo, or the thing blew up in the silo during fueling before launch. 

Or, someone dropped a wrench.  Another Damascus Incident?  Maybe search for satellite images during the minutes or hours before the explosion to see if there are any plumes from a hypergolic leak.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 09/23/2024 04:11 pm by edkyle99 »

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Re: Two Sarmat ICBM Test Failures, 2023-2024
« Reply #19 on: 09/23/2024 04:33 pm »

I read this was a test failure and that the RS-28 has had only one successful test (last year) out of four or five to date.  Brings into question Russia’s ability to replace the Satan, the last variant of which is over 35 years old, although I think there’s only 40-50 left.

I wonder the degree to which these failures are specific to the RS-28 test program or symptomatic of problems throughout Russia’s nuclear forces.  It’s one thing if we cross a red line for Putin and he pops off a couple to make a point.  We know how to respond to that.  It’s another if we know he ordered a nuclear launch but it didn’t go off, either because of a technical failure like this or because the chain of command refused to carry out the order.  I don’t think we know how to respond to that intel...

Endemic corruption and nepotism, made worse by sanctions related to the war with Ukraine ? Also russian rocket industry unable to train a young generation of rocket scientists.
Such issues have plagued the civilian rocket industry for at least 20 years (Phobos-Grunt, cough). No surprise the rot extend to military rocketry.

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