Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year  (Read 202871 times)

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #820 on: 12/26/2023 10:06 pm »
If I were SpaceX, I would intentionally try to launch on leap seconds, just to mess with people.

Also, 2024 is a leap year!!!  Extra day extra launch potentials.
0.39 extra launches, which rounds down to 0 by banker's rules.
It’s probabilistic so it doesn’t round.
Probably.
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Offline launchwatcher

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #821 on: 12/29/2023 12:43 am »
If I were SpaceX, I would intentionally try to launch on leap seconds, just to mess with people.
You may have to wait a while.   Something odd happened to the earth's rotation rate in around 2019 or so and it seems to be better synchronized with the atomic second than it was during the last 3 decades of the 20th century.

https://datacenter.iers.org/singlePlot.php?plotname=BulletinB_All-UT1-UTC&id=207

(the vertical discontinuities on the plot are the leap second insertions).

That said, given the, um, diversity of ways in which leap seconds are dealt with in various distributed systems I'd hope that there would be a lot of testing of leap-second handling if one was expected during a launch.   

See also https://xkcd.com/2867/




Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #822 on: 12/29/2023 01:02 am »
If I were SpaceX, I would intentionally try to launch on leap seconds, just to mess with people.
You may have to wait a while.   Something odd happened to the earth's rotation rate in around 2019 or so and it seems to be better synchronized with the atomic second than it was during the last 3 decades of the 20th century.

https://datacenter.iers.org/singlePlot.php?plotname=BulletinB_All-UT1-UTC&id=207

(the vertical discontinuities on the plot are the leap second insertions).

That said, given the, um, diversity of ways in which leap seconds are dealt with in various distributed systems I'd hope that there would be a lot of testing of leap-second handling if one was expected during a launch.   

See also https://xkcd.com/2867/
Ironically that was caused by redistribution of surface mass caused by the emergence of Amazon.
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Offline mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #823 on: 12/29/2023 03:15 am »
The smoothed count of SpaceX launches per month in 2023:

7 launches, January 2023
7 launches, February 2023
7 launches, March 2023
7 launches, April 2023
8 launches, May 2023
8 launches, June 2023
8 launches, July 2023
8 launches, August 2023
9 launches, September 2023
10 launches, October 2023
10 launches, November 2023
9 launches, December 2023

And here's the unsmoothed count:

7 launches, January 2023
6 launches, February 2023
8 launches, March 2023
7 launches, April 2023
9 launches, May 2023
7 launches, June 2023
8 launches, July 2023
8 launches, August 2023
10 launches, September 2023
9 launches, October 2023
10 launches, November 2023
9 launches, December 2023

Online StarshipTrooper

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #824 on: 12/29/2023 04:26 am »
Congratulations to SpaceX on completing an amazing 96 launches in 2023!
https://twitter.com/whoisheartbreak/status/1740601089802883547
« Last Edit: 12/29/2023 07:55 am by FutureSpaceTourist »
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Offline Brigantine

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #825 on: 12/29/2023 07:28 am »
98 Launches (91 F9, 5 FH, 2 SS)
106 Block-5's used
99 Landed
97 (+1 TBD) Recovered

Falcon First Stages have an infant mortality problem. B1058.20, like others before it, died on its maiden voyage from its spawn point before ever reaching dry land. This first part of their life cycle is the most dangerous, once they get past this they have a very good chance of surviving right to the end of their mission, even the trip to space and back.

It seemed like B1082 would launch this year after all, but it wasn't to be
« Last Edit: 12/29/2023 08:13 am by Brigantine »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #826 on: 12/29/2023 07:53 am »
https://twitter.com/bellikozan/status/1740572138279665895

Quote
Also, Falcon Heavy has launched as many times in 2023 as Atlas V, Delta IV, and Ariane 5 combined.

Falcon 9 has launched 18x as many times.

Ok, so Falcon launch cadence is increasingly massively as other launchers reach/near end of life, but still a fun observation.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #827 on: 12/29/2023 07:58 am »
More (ex-)SpaceXers comments:

twitter.com/edwards345/status/1740593001401823272

Quote
Congrats to the entire Falcon team at @SpaceX on a record breaking 96 launches in 2023! I remember when @elonmusk first threw out a goal of 100 launches as a thought experiment, intended to unlock our thinking as to how we might accelerate Falcon across all levels of production and launch. Only a few years later and here we are. I’m so incredibly proud to work with the best team on earth, and so excited to see what we achieve next year.

Edit to add:

https://twitter.com/spaceabhi/status/1740596104729924067

Quote
Yep, gotta admit that even in 2016 or 2017 most people polled inside SpaceX would find it difficult to believe we'd achieve this by 2023. The number of things that had to be practiced and perfected is staggering. No private company is within a decade of this accomplishment.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #828 on: 12/29/2023 10:06 am »
Good to end this thread by confirming that from the outset Elon was indeed talking about Falcon launches, and did not include Starship test flights in this discussion:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1740628828135756267?s=46&t=eQrUtTJk6IAt4GyTzH7J2w


96 flights is an excellent achievement. I predict next year’s 144 flights will be the high point of the Falcon era, after which Starship flights will gradually start eroding Falcon launch cadence.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2023 10:10 am by M.E.T. »

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #829 on: 12/29/2023 01:21 pm »


Good to end this thread by confirming that from the outset Elon was indeed talking about Falcon launches, and did not include Starship test flights in this discussion:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1740628828135756267?s=46&t=eQrUtTJk6IAt4GyTzH7J2w


96 flights is an excellent achievement. I predict next year’s 144 flights will be the high point of the Falcon era, after which Starship flights will gradually start eroding Falcon launch cadence.

Yup.

On the prediction side, I'm torn.
Otwh, yeah, let Starship take over already.
Otoh, there's new Falcon pads coming, and those are not being built for a single year, so I want to see how close to 365/yr they'll get.

What I don't subscribe to is the "Atlas took 5 years to fly 10 times" BS.  Starship is like no other. People need to get that through their heads. What other rocket flies like Starship during development? It's already about to fly for the third time, with a 3 month turnaround, and a manufacturing capacity that will soon hit 1/month...  And that's before reusability.

Whatever Falcon does, it won't be because Starship got into service too slowly.
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Offline steveleach

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #830 on: 12/29/2023 02:58 pm »
Don't forget there's a new thread for 2024 predictions:-

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59973.0

Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #831 on: 12/29/2023 03:51 pm »
https://twitter.com/bellikozan/status/1740572138279665895

Quote
Also, Falcon Heavy has launched as many times in 2023 as Atlas V, Delta IV, and Ariane 5 combined.

Falcon 9 has launched 18x as many times.

Ok, so Falcon launch cadence is increasingly massively as other launchers reach/near end of life, but still a fun observation.

Falcon in 2023 only launched a couple times less than Atlas V has in its entire ~20 year service life… tonnage was higher btw.
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Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #832 on: 12/29/2023 06:44 pm »
https://twitter.com/bellikozan/status/1740572138279665895

Quote
Also, Falcon Heavy has launched as many times in 2023 as Atlas V, Delta IV, and Ariane 5 combined.

Falcon 9 has launched 18x as many times.

Ok, so Falcon launch cadence is increasingly massively as other launchers reach/near end of life, but still a fun observation.

Falcon in 2023 only launched a couple times less than Atlas V has in its entire ~20 year service life… tonnage was higher btw.

SpaceX's goal of 144 Falcon 9 family launches in 2024 is close to the expected combined totals of launches by the Atlas V and Delta IV launch vehicles in their carriers up to the end of 2024.

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #833 on: 12/29/2023 09:19 pm »
The target launch rate of F9s in 2024 exceeds by quite a few the amount needed to apply the law of large numbers.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #834 on: 12/30/2023 01:31 pm »
Good to end this thread by confirming that from the outset Elon was indeed talking about Falcon launches, and did not include Starship test flights in this discussion:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1740628828135756267?s=46&t=eQrUtTJk6IAt4GyTzH7J2w


96 flights is an excellent achievement. I predict next year’s 144 flights will be the high point of the Falcon era, after which Starship flights will gradually start eroding Falcon launch cadence.
Who cares if he did (and he didn’t; he’s replying to a tweet which specifies Falcon)? Elon doesn’t define reality. SpaceX overall still achieved 98 launches.

98 SpaceX launches. 96 Falcon launches. This is literally what happened. How can there still be arguments about it.
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Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #835 on: 12/30/2023 02:40 pm »
Good to end this thread by confirming that from the outset Elon was indeed talking about Falcon launches, and did not include Starship test flights in this discussion:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1740628828135756267?s=46&t=eQrUtTJk6IAt4GyTzH7J2w


96 flights is an excellent achievement. I predict next year’s 144 flights will be the high point of the Falcon era, after which Starship flights will gradually start eroding Falcon launch cadence.
Who cares if he did (and he didn’t; he’s replying to a tweet which specifies Falcon)? Elon doesn’t define reality. SpaceX overall still achieved 98 launches.

98 SpaceX launches. 96 Falcon launches. This is literally what happened. How can there still be arguments about it.
You're seriously asking?
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Offline xyv

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #836 on: 12/31/2023 09:02 pm »
Well that wraps it up for the year.  Any and every way you look at it, this was an amazing year.  96 launches or (for those who color outside the lines) 98.  Might as well complete what I started so here is the update for December.  Spread sheet is at the top of thread as always and for fun I am adding the two year cumulative plot.  With a linear fit to 2022 you can see the 'kink' at the beginning of 2023.  Visual artifact? proabably - looking at the whole two years you can also visualize exponential growth but either way, the rate this year seemed to take off from the start.

Happy New Year to all. ;)

Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #837 on: 12/31/2023 09:10 pm »
Quote
SpaceX closes out record-breaking 2023, prepares for more records in 2024

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/12/falcon-roundup/

A nice round up of the numbers and what it took to get here. (And what is being done to get even more next year)

Offline Perchlorate

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #838 on: 01/01/2024 12:23 am »


Quote
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1732671139862753644?s=46&t=eQrUtTJk6IAt4GyTzH7J2w

Quote
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

It's been a fun thread.

Strong congratulations to Musk, Shotwell and the whole SpaceX team on this accomplishment in 2023, in parallel with all they've done with Starship.

Here comes 2024...can't wait!
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Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #839 on: 01/01/2024 12:28 am »
 I'm just pretending they're going for a 50% yearly increase, the same goal as Tesla. So, all is good.
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