SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year

[whitelancer64]

I fully expect to see many articles in the first few days of January with headlines along the lines of "SpaceX misses target number of launches."

Almost...  You have to work "Elon Musk" into there somewhere.  Otherwise, most won't care and some won't even know what you're talking about.

On cue: To the last detail😂😂

https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/spacex-falls-short-of-elon-musks-2023-goal-for-100-falcon-9-launches/

It was actually a very good article, complimenting SpaceX and pretty factually correct. Not sure what the complaint is, unless it’s the headline.  What do you want it to say?

Why do you think there's a complaint?

...Read the previous page and a half of this thread, beginning with AmigaClone's comment...

[alugobi]

It was actually a very good article, complimenting SpaceX and pretty factually correct. Not sure what the complaint is, unless it’s the headline.  What do you want it to say?

It's the proper headline to maximize getting clicks to open it. 

[Lar]

Guys!

[zubenelgenubi]

Moderator:
Discussion is fun, but drifting off-topic, like a poorly drive aligned 1970's compact car with an inattentive driver about to drive into a ditch. 🚗 🤕

Pepperidge Farms remembers. 🚜 🍪

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Unfortunately the update on the launch date of Starlink 6-36 being on December 29 UTC seals the lid shut: Neither 100 Falcon 9/Heavy nor 100 SpaceX launches will be reached this year. If all confirmed ones for the final 9 days of the year launch as planned, there will be 92 Falcon 9 + 5 Falcon Heavy + 2 Starship launches, for a total of 99.

[Robotbeat]

Thank Goddard.

I’m getting an estimated 97.7 SpaceX launches in 2023 now.

[freddo411]

Thank Goddard.

I’m getting an estimated 97.7 SpaceX launches in 2023 now.

Pretty sure it will be either 97 or 98.   Wasting significant digits

[Robotbeat]

Thank Goddard.

I’m getting an estimated 97.7 SpaceX launches in 2023 now.

Pretty sure it will be either 97 or 98.   Wasting significant digits

You just wrote a whole sentence.

I find the decimal useful to drive home the fact that it’s just a projection based on past data, not a precise prophecy using a whole number (as the real thing as I define it has to be a whole number). Plus people would argue I rounded wrong.

[freddo411]

Thank Goddard.

I’m getting an estimated 97.7 SpaceX launches in 2023 now.

Pretty sure it will be either 97 or 98.   Wasting significant digits

You just wrote a whole sentence.

I find the decimal useful to drive home the fact that it’s just a projection based on past data, not a precise prophecy using a whole number (as the real thing as I define it has to be a whole number). Plus people would argue I rounded wrong.

This thread makes me laugh and keeps me entertained.

[DistantTemple]

Thank Goddard.

I’m getting an estimated 97.7 SpaceX launches in 2023 now.

Pretty sure it will be either 97 or 98.   Wasting significant digits

You just wrote a whole sentence.

I find the decimal useful to drive home the fact that it’s just a projection based on past data, not a precise prophecy using a whole number (as the real thing as I define it has to be a whole number). Plus people would argue I rounded wrong.

This thread makes me laugh and keeps me entertained.

Is there perhaps an argument that SX will launch 97.6 times instead.
What would 0.7 (or 0.6) of a launch look like?
Depending on what proportion of the timelapse between the last 2023 launch and first 2024 launch, falls within 2023, a more accurate claim of better clairvoyance based on data, could be made. Maybe two decimal places would be taking it too far.

[geza]

Unfortunately the update on the launch date of Starlink 6-36 being on December 29 UTC seals the lid shut: Neither 100 Falcon 9/Heavy nor 100 SpaceX launches will be reached this year. If all confirmed ones for the final 9 days of the year launch as planned, there will be 92 Falcon 9 + 5 Falcon Heavy + 2 Starship launches, for a total of 99.

IFT-3 for December 31 UTC!

[launchwatcher]

What would 0.7 (or 0.6) of a launch look like?

For amusement purposes only: 

Visualize a "successful" Falcon Heavy launch where one of the side boosters was left behind on the pad. 

Yeah, I know, not even close to realistic but it's what popped into my head for 0.7 of a launch...

[EnigmaSCADA]

Thank Goddard.

I’m getting an estimated 97.7 SpaceX launches in 2023 now.

Pretty sure it will be either 97 or 98.   Wasting significant digits

You just wrote a whole sentence.

I find the decimal useful to drive home the fact that it’s just a projection based on past data, not a precise prophecy using a whole number (as the real thing as I define it has to be a whole number). Plus people would argue I rounded wrong.

What I wouldn't give for a dedicated NSF thread on the merits of different rounding systems. Normal people are probably unaware that there are more ways to round than the typical arithmetic rounding they learned in school. I'm certainly partial to bankers' rounding and willing to die on that hill.

[DistantTemple]

Thank Goddard.

I’m getting an estimated 97.7 SpaceX launches in 2023 now.

Pretty sure it will be either 97 or 98.   Wasting significant digits

You just wrote a whole sentence.

I find the decimal useful to drive home the fact that it’s just a projection based on past data, not a precise prophecy using a whole number (as the real thing as I define it has to be a whole number). Plus people would argue I rounded wrong.

What I wouldn't give for a dedicated NSF thread on the merits of different rounding systems. Normal people are probably unaware that there are more ways to round than the typical arithmetic rounding they learned in school. I'm certainly partial to bankers' rounding and willing to die on that hill.

if you consider a slide rule, half the distance from one to ten is 3.162 or sqrt(10). When multiplying would this not be a more logical boundary between "rounding up", or down?
I suspect someone on here can explain or refute this.

[AmigaClone]

What would 0.7 (or 0.6) of a launch look like?

In the context that the .7 of a launch was first mentioned, I would consider a launch with liftoff on 31 December 2023. with Payload separation would happen sometime after midnight on 1 January 2024.

The launch time would depend on the time between liftoff and payload deployment. For example, if there is an hour between liftoff and payload deployment, launch would occur at 23:18 on 31 December 2023 and payload deployment occurring 0:18 on 1 January 2024.

[meekGee]

If I were SpaceX, I would intentionally try to launch on leap seconds, just to mess with people.

[catdlr]

If I were SpaceX, I would intentionally try to launch on leap seconds, just to mess with people.

Also, 2024 is a leap year!!!  Extra day extra launch potentials.

[steveleach]

If I were SpaceX, I would intentionally try to launch on leap seconds, just to mess with people.

Also, 2024 is a leap year!!!  Extra day extra launch potentials.

0.39 extra launches, which rounds down to 0 by banker's rules.

[Robotbeat]

If I were SpaceX, I would intentionally try to launch on leap seconds, just to mess with people.

Also, 2024 is a leap year!!!  Extra day extra launch potentials.

0.39 extra launches, which rounds down to 0 by banker's rules.

It’s probabilistic so it doesn’t round.

[catdlr]

Will this incident on JRTI delay landings on this ship until a new/repaired OG is completed?  or is there a spare OG available?

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46338.msg2552835#msg2552835