SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year

[meekGee]

With the lull finally gone and current count standing at 92 Falcons + 2 Starships, let's have a final review for the shot in the 2023 calendar year:

TL;DR: Chance of 100 Falcon 9 & Heavy launches is out.
100 SpaceX launches including Starship is still on - just barely.

Another bit of trivia, we're also currently on 94 booster landings in 2023, and if everything else succeeds, but Launch B is delayed, 2023 will be the year of 100 landings

It's doubtful whether there will be another year with landings > launches, with SH still far off re-use and F9 eventually reaching the end of their service lives.

A late night December 31st launch further complicates that, since it can either lose a landing or add a landing to a year.

If there was only one payload per flight, maybe the right moment to record is "moment of payload separation".

This thread is the best.

[Stan-1967]

Well obviously that deadline needs to be based on the full orbital period of the earth around the sun out to at least 2 or significant decimal points, not some gregorian calendar bunk made by monks millenia ago.  :-)  Merry Christmas

[meekGee]

Well obviously that deadline needs to be based on the full orbital period of the earth around the sun out to at least 2 or significant decimal points, not some gregorian calendar bunk made by monks millenia ago.  :-)  Merry Christmas

You realize Christmas was also made around that time ...

[alugobi]

A late night December 31st launch further complicates that, since it can either lose a landing or add a landing to a year.

Since we've using the UTC clock for launch times, late night on 12/31 local means January 1 for the record.

[seanpg71]

A late night December 31st launch further complicates that, since it can either lose a landing or add a landing to a year.

Since we've using the UTC clock for launch times, late night on 12/31 local means January 1 for the record.

I assume Elon meant local when he tweated "up to 100".  We'll probably have to figure out where he was when he tweeted it.

[steveleach]

A late night December 31st launch further complicates that, since it can either lose a landing or add a landing to a year.

Since we've using the UTC clock for launch times, late night on 12/31 local means January 1 for the record.

I assume Elon meant local when he tweated "up to 100".  We'll probably have to figure out where he was when he tweeted it.

Yeah, when I'm talking about how many times I plan to do something in a year, and picking a nice round number as a target, I always use local time (without specifying what that is), unless I'm travelling east of Greenwhich, in which case I use the Mayan calendar.

[jpo234]

[xyv]

A late night December 31st launch further complicates that, since it can either lose a landing or add a landing to a year.

Since we've using the UTC clock for launch times, late night on 12/31 local means January 1 for the record.

I assume Elon meant local when he tweated "up to 100".  We'll probably have to figure out where he was when he tweeted it.

Local time...so California or Florida?  There is a good reason that rocket launches are tracked by UTC...which was also in the 'rules of the game' in the opening post.

[kevin-rf]

I still take the unpopular opinion that when counting, it is local time for the pad. So if the last launch is SLC-40, it's EST, if SLC-4E, PST... The pad/ launch teams set their watches by the local time,  not by some silly rail running through the middle of Greenwich London.

[Brigantine]

I still take the unpopular opinion that when counting, it is local time for the pad. So if the last launch is SLC-40, it's EST, if SLC-4E, PST... The pad/ launch teams set their watches by the local time,  not by some silly rail running through the middle of Greenwich London.

And people working night shift on e.g. a Sunday night still call the whole shift "Sunday" even if most of it was technically Monday according to conventional "local" time. So you can stretch it out further to about 2024-01-01T14Z for a SLC-4E launch to count as "2023", as long as it was scheduled for earlier in the night and got held

I'm 21 hours ahead of PST, it's a mind twister sometimes.

[alugobi]

I still take the unpopular opinion that when counting, it is local time for the pad. So if the last launch is SLC-40, it's EST, if SLC-4E, PST... The pad/ launch teams set their watches by the local time,  not by some silly rail running through the middle of Greenwich London.

You're certainly welcome to do so.

It is the convention of the missions forum here to time launches using UTC. 

If I recall, the clock differential came into play only once this calendar year.  Starlink 6-13 launched late evening on 8/31 and was counted as a September launch.

[meekGee]

I still take the unpopular opinion that when counting, it is local time for the pad. So if the last launch is SLC-40, it's EST, if SLC-4E, PST... The pad/ launch teams set their watches by the local time,  not by some silly rail running through the middle of Greenwich London.

You must be a huge fan of DST

[octavo]

I still take the unpopular opinion that when counting, it is local time for the pad. So if the last launch is SLC-40, it's EST, if SLC-4E, PST... The pad/ launch teams set their watches by the local time,  not by some silly rail running through the middle of Greenwich London.

So, by your reckoning, a day could be 47 hours long.

Obligatory XKCD

https://xkcd.com/2867/

[M.E.T.]

I fully expect to see many articles in the first few days of January with headlines along the lines of "SpaceX misses target number of launches."

Almost...  You have to work "Elon Musk" into there somewhere.  Otherwise, most won't care and some won't even know what you're talking about.

On cue: To the last detail😂😂

https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/spacex-falls-short-of-elon-musks-2023-goal-for-100-falcon-9-launches/

[catdlr]

I fully expect to see many articles in the first few days of January with headlines along the lines of "SpaceX misses target number of launches."

Almost...  You have to work "Elon Musk" into there somewhere.  Otherwise, most won't care and some won't even know what you're talking about.

On cue: To the last detail😂😂

https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/spacex-falls-short-of-elon-musks-2023-goal-for-100-falcon-9-launches/

additional sources:

Jeff Foust

William Harwood

[steveleach]

I fully expect to see many articles in the first few days of January with headlines along the lines of "SpaceX misses target number of launches."

Almost...  You have to work "Elon Musk" into there somewhere.  Otherwise, most won't care and some won't even know what you're talking about.

On cue: To the last detail😂😂

https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/spacex-falls-short-of-elon-musks-2023-goal-for-100-falcon-9-launches/

The article says there are projecting 92 launches for the year, but haven't SpaceX already launched Falcon 92 times? With the 4 potential launches for the rest of December it should be 96 right?

[DistantTemple]

I fully expect to see many articles in the first few days of January with headlines along the lines of "SpaceX misses target number of launches."

Almost...  You have to work "Elon Musk" into there somewhere.  Otherwise, most won't care and some won't even know what you're talking about.

On cue: To the last detail😂😂

https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/spacex-falls-short-of-elon-musks-2023-goal-for-100-falcon-9-launches/

The article says there are projecting 92 launches for the year, but haven't SpaceX already launched Falcon 92 times? With the 4 potential launches for the rest of December it should be 96 right?

It is certainly not a negative article though. This is the second sentence

Nonetheless, the company’s achievements during the calendar year are damn impressive, with 2024 poised to be even more remarkable.

[tbellman]

The article says there are projecting 92 launches for the year, but haven't SpaceX already launched Falcon 92 times? With the 4 potential launches for the rest of December it should be 96 right?

They are projecting 92 Falcon 9 launches.  Plus five Falcon Heavy launches, giving a total of 97 launches of the Falcon family.

So far, SpaceX have done 88 Falcon 9 launches and 4 Falcon Heavy launches in 2023.

[kenny008]

I fully expect to see many articles in the first few days of January with headlines along the lines of "SpaceX misses target number of launches."

Almost...  You have to work "Elon Musk" into there somewhere.  Otherwise, most won't care and some won't even know what you're talking about.

On cue: To the last detail😂😂

https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/spacex-falls-short-of-elon-musks-2023-goal-for-100-falcon-9-launches/

It was actually a very good article, complimenting SpaceX and pretty factually correct. Not sure what the complaint is, unless it’s the headline.  What do you want it to say?

[steveleach]

I fully expect to see many articles in the first few days of January with headlines along the lines of "SpaceX misses target number of launches."

Almost...  You have to work "Elon Musk" into there somewhere.  Otherwise, most won't care and some won't even know what you're talking about.

On cue: To the last detail😂😂

https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/spacex-falls-short-of-elon-musks-2023-goal-for-100-falcon-9-launches/

It was actually a very good article, complimenting SpaceX and pretty factually correct. Not sure what the complaint is, unless it’s the headline.  What do you want it to say?

Why do you think there's a complaint?