SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year

[mandrewa]

So 89 this year so far, 91 with the two Starship launches.  11 more to go, or 9 depending on how you count it.  It is going to be a photo finish. 

I get 89 launches so far this year if we include the two Starship launches.  It's 87 launches if we count only the Falcon 9 launches.

So 11 launches (or 13) are needed in December to reach 100 for the year.  If the current trend continues it will be 99 (or 97) for the year.

[edzieba]

34 days to go, 9 launches to go (Starship included). Attached is a rolling last-34-day total average of launches since 2022. Might just about squeak in 100 this year, but it'll be close.

[scaesare]

Though we've been speaking about 2023, it seems that barring something along the lines of a failure/standdown/investigation or some irresponsible government shutdown (hey, it's not exactly far fetched), 100 in 2024 should have better odds than not assuming the payloads are all ready and available (is Starlink enough to soak up nearly every launch alone?).

Bill Gerstenmaier, VP at SpaceX has said the target for 2024 is 144 launches (every 2.5 days on average).

[alugobi]

Vandenberg launch got bumped a day, so that's it for November.  Does not include the two Starships.

[steveleach]

Though we've been speaking about 2023, it seems that barring something along the lines of a failure/standdown/investigation or some irresponsible government shutdown (hey, it's not exactly far fetched), 100 in 2024 should have better odds than not assuming the payloads are all ready and available (is Starlink enough to soak up nearly every launch alone?).

Bill Gerstenmaier, VP at SpaceX has said the target for 2024 is 144 launches (every 2.5 days on average).

That matches the 12/month Elon mentioned. Assuming the current month-on-month growth continues they would be nudging 14 a month by the end of 2024, or pretty much every other day.

[EnigmaSCADA]

Though we've been speaking about 2023, it seems that barring something along the lines of a failure/standdown/investigation or some irresponsible government shutdown (hey, it's not exactly far fetched), 100 in 2024 should have better odds than not assuming the payloads are all ready and available (is Starlink enough to soak up nearly every launch alone?).

Bill Gerstenmaier, VP at SpaceX has said the target for 2024 is 144 launches (every 2.5 days on average).

Wow, that number is somehow still hard to imagine. Especially so from the mouth of a NASA admin that always seemed insufferably cautious/slow/bureaucratic.

[meekGee]

Funny thing is, it's such a photo-finish that the fact that December has 31 days is actually significant.  Good times.

[steveleach]

Funny thing is, it's such a photo-finish that the fact that December has 31 days is actually significant.  Good times.

Whatever happens in December, and whether you could Starship flight tests or not, the actual number will almost certainly round to 100.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Funny thing is, it's such a photo-finish that the fact that December has 31 days is actually significant.  Good times.

Whatever happens in December, and whether you could Starship flight tests or not, the actual number will almost certainly round to 100.

While it would take 8 F9 launches in December to make the number for F9 launches round to 100 it would only take 6 overall including Starship to make the number round to 100.

[meekGee]

What's this round-to rubbish?  51 rounds to 100 too. For some people, so does 49.5.  Come on!

[steveleach]

What's this round-to rubbish?  51 rounds to 100 too. For some people, so does 49.5.  Come on!

True, true. Well, maybe not 49.5.

But by most sensible definitions of "round to", I think it will qualify.

[abaddon]

It's pretty amazing to consider that in the middle of this run SpaceX is upgrading the LC-40 launch complex, the busiest of their pads and maybe the busiest pad in modern history(?), with a new crew access tower/arm!

[Brigantine]

While it would take 8 F9 launches in December to make the number for F9 launches round to 100 it would only take 6 overall including Starship to make the number round to 100.

nitpick: Yes, and you could also make a different number for "F9" launches by excluding the FHs, which might also round to 90

[alugobi]

What's this round-to rubbish?  51 rounds to 100 too. For some people, so does 49.5.  Come on!

Indeed.

The excuse-making begins.

[Robotbeat]

While it would take 8 F9 launches in December to make the number for F9 launches round to 100 it would only take 6 overall including Starship to make the number round to 100.

nitpick: Yes, and you could also make a different number for "F9" launches by excluding the FHs, which might also round to 90

Just measure the success of predictions by how close they are to the final number. “Rounding” is unnecessary, although getting within 5% of the final number would be remarkably impressive for such a prediction. I think I guessed less than 40 launches for 2022, WAY off.

[AS-503]

What is particularly noteworthy is that SpaceX is able to manufacture and test 100 F9 second stages.
A non-trivial feat for a noteworthy achievement (the stage itself) in rocket science.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41906.0#:~:text=The%20net%20result%20is%20that,final%20mass%20is%2010.56%20tonnes

[Robotbeat]

As of today, and including Starship launches, I get an estimated 99.46 launches through the end of the year.

[SteveU]

As of today, and including Starship launches, I get an estimated 99.46 launches through the end of the year.

If true, I’ll only celebrate with 99.46% of a pint!

[xyv]

And my penultimate update.  You can see that SpaceX continues to close the gap to the 100 line.  The end of year linear fit projection continues to climb, reflecting a coninued acceleration in rate.  By last year at this time, the end of year curve had flattened out.  If you take the current linear fit (day * 0.2601 - 2.1887) and calculate the number of launches at day 332 (most recent launch) it pencils out at just over 84 - i.e. SpaceX is 3 launches ahead of this.

And no I am still not counting SS since I don't believe is changing the rules during the game  .

[mandrewa]

And no I am still not counting SS since I don't believe is changing the rules during the game  .

I didn't change the rules in the middle of the game.  I posted this on the same day you began this topic:

Here's Elon Musk's tweet in context:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

I think you've moved the goalpost xyv.  Starship launches should be included.

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.
(xyv)