SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year

[AmigaClone]

From the very first post in the thread:

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

Fair enough. Truthfully, I would be following the 'Falcon only' count with just as much enthusiasm if there was still much hope. As it so happens 'SpaceX launches' is a tossup and 'Falcon launches' is a long shot as far as the 100 milestone goes. For that matter, also the number of boosters launched, counting each FH as 3 booster flights.

If counting each FH as 3 booster flights, they are at 94 already with 5 weeks to go.

yeah, I already tried that, got shot down.

Actually I agree. Just going with the thought.

For launches, I would count a FH as one. On the other hand, if successful booster landings were counted we would be up to 88 and if successful booster landings + expended boosters were counted we would be up to that 94 mentioned above.

[Alexphysics]

I was gonna point this out on the other section but I see this thread exists so I'll throw in here what I've been doing all over the year.

Ever since the start of the year I've had my own linear projection of launches on my own spreadsheet, it started projecting about 88-90 launches at the beginning, now it is tracking 98 or so (in my spreadsheet I have Starship counted in so it should be tracking 102 to have 100 Falcon launches).

On the other hand, I've also tried to run some sort of over/under approximation of the number of remaining launches by applying, across the entire year, a projection of launches per pad considering their shortest turnaround time in the year so far, their longest in the year so far, and their average. This obviously had the opposite result, initially in the year the turnarounds were very generous and short from each pad (more or less) and so I had about 110-120 potential launches projected by taking an average of all three projections. This has slowly decreased to about 102 by now given the known customer launches remaining in the year and adding in Starlink launches where it seemed appropriate and possible. So, if that holds, they're right now at the edge of getting to 100 Falcon launches this year.

We'll see what happens though! Definitely interesting to have tracked this all across the year and I think in the end I may do a few graphs of how it all has changed although I see you all also have your fancy graphics as well, I like them. Hopefully SpaceX makes it more complicated for us next year with the 144 launch target

[ZachF]

12 to go in 39 days to hit 100

They’ve launched 16 times in the last 39 days btw.

[AmigaClone]

12 to go in 39 days to hit 100

They’ve launched 16 times in the last 39 days btw.

Predicted number of launches per site until 23:59 on 31 December 2023 UTC.

Launch Site	Launches
Starbase	0
SLC-4E	3-4 F9
LC-39A	1 FH 0-2 F9
SLC-40	7-9 F9
Note 1: This year it has taken between two weeks and a month to go between a launching a FH and a F9 from LC-39A.

Note 2: I see SLC-4E and SLC-40 likely having 11 or 12 launches between them. That might involve another booster starting to operate from the West coast.

Edited to correct SpaceX's active west coast launch pad and add the second note.

[steveleach]

12 to go in 39 days to hit 100

They’ve launched 16 times in the last 39 days btw.

Predicted number of launches per site until 23:59 on 31 December 2023 UTC.

Launch Site	Launches
Starbase	0
SLC-6	3-4 F9
LC-39A	1 FH 0-2 F9
SLC-40	7-9 F9
Note that this year it has taken between two weeks and a month to go between a launching a FH and a F9 from LC-39A.

So they need 12 and the predicted range is 11 to 16?

[DanClemmensen]

12 to go in 39 days to hit 100

They’ve launched 16 times in the last 39 days btw.

Predicted number of launches per site until 23:59 on 31 December 2023 UTC.

Launch Site	Launches
Starbase	0
SLC-6	3-4 F9
LC-39A	1 FH 0-2 F9
SLC-40	7-9 F9
Note that this year it has taken between two weeks and a month to go between a launching a FH and a F9 from LC-39A.

They launch from SLC-4E at VSFB.  When/if they activate SLC-6, it may be in addition to SLC-4E, not replacing it.

[Brigantine]

Predicted number of launches per site until 23:59 on 31 December 2023 UTC.

Launch Site	Launches
Starbase	0
SLC-6	3-4 F9
LC-39A	1 FH 0-2 F9
SLC-40	7-9 F9

Predictions are good. For pure comparison to my prediction from 4 launches ago:

Launch Site	Launches
Starbase	0-1
SLC-4E	3-5 F9
LC-39A	0-1 FH 0-2 F9
SLC-40	5-7 F9

I agree that getting 8 out of LC-40 is now looking possible, OTOH getting 3 launches out of LC-39A is looking unlikely now.

As for LC-40 getting 9 more, I would be very surprised. Next launch is NET Nov 27, and then at a break-neck pace of 4 day turnarounds they only have 2 days' margin for weather and politics. (I hope to be proven wrong!)

At Starbase, given they're only licensed for 5 launches a year, and B11/S29 are not far off ready... I think 1 launch is a possibility. Getting IFT-3 in 2023 means getting SH development flight #8 in 2024 instead of 2025 (any operational flights from KSC with expended boosters notwithstanding). It's a good time for some go fever - The opportunity cost is low so it's worth it even if they would only learn comparatively little, just from having more recent raptors, electric TVC on stage 2, some heatshield QC and maybe some software & flight profile updates. Assuming the FAA can push paper quickly.
[EDIT: I stand corrected on that]

[edzieba]

At Starbase, given they're only licensed for 5 launches a year

The Launch License imposes no flight rate limit (nor even mentions one). The 2022 PEA evaluated impacts using a model that assumed 5 orbital launches per year. The most recent WR to that PEA for IFT-2 used the assumption of 10 launches per year for modelling impacts of the deluge system. For perspective, the original SLC-4E EIS assumed 5 Falcon 9 and 5 Falcon Heavy launches per year: in 2023, SLC-4E hosted 25 Falcon 9 launches, 5 times the 'limit'. Same situations at SLC-40 and LC-39A. As with every other SpaceX launch pad, the 'limit' will move as actual launch rate approaches it.
To the best of my knowledge, not a single Launch License application (from SpaceX or anyone else) has ever been rejected due to a vehicle flying too often.

[raptorx2]

At Starbase, given they're only licensed for 5 launches a year

The Launch License imposes no flight rate limit (nor even mentions one). The 2022 PEA evaluated impacts using a model that assumed 5 orbital launches per year. The most recent WR to that PEA for IFT-2 used the assumption of 10 launches per year for modelling impacts of the deluge system. For perspective, the original SLC-4E EIS assumed 5 Falcon 9 and 5 Falcon Heavy launches per year: in 2023, SLC-4E hosted 25 Falcon 9 launches, 5 times the 'limit'. Same situations at SLC-40 and LC-39A. As with every other SpaceX launch pad, the 'limit' will move as actual launch rate approaches it.
To the best of my knowledge, not a single Launch License application (from SpaceX or anyone else) has ever been rejected due to a vehicle flying too often.

Given the historical launcher turn around time at 4E, as well as the representative age of the inventory.
I would say a max. of 3 from 4E without new inventory.  (1061 Starlink, 1075 Customer, 1071 Customer)

B1061 - 16  10/21
B1063 - 15   11/21
B1071 - 12  11/11
B1075 - 7  10/29 

B1082 Testing at McGregor is likely headed West, IMO.
Perhaps a New Years Eve launch (100) from SLC-6 with B1071 (Starlink 8-1 D2D) with B1082 launching a commercial from 4E a few days earlier?

That would require perfect weather, in December, in California.

[meekGee]

Hey if we're going to maintain that SpaceX hadn't had failures in the last couple of years, then we're not counting Starships, and so we shouldn't count them in the launch rate either.

This is about Falocns. It's a continuation of similar discussions in years past, when here wasn't a Starship.

The still isn't - it is still a development. Maybe sometime late next year it'll start doing regular service. Maybe.

[alugobi]

^I have been persuaded by mG's argument re: failures and a continuous discussion.  Although I included the first SS launch in my scorecard from April, I'm decrementing my count by one after this consideration. 

[raptorx2]

^I have been persuaded by mG's argument re: failures and a continuous discussion.  Although I included the first SS launch in my scorecard from April, I'm decrementing my count by one after this consideration.

Was Musk involved with a "continuous discussion"?

Musk stated
"Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year
8:13 AM · Aug 31, 2022"

Doesn't even say "Missions", as you might claim a Mission is not a Mission if it is not completed. Just flights.

[meekGee]

^I have been persuaded by mG's argument re: failures and a continuous discussion.  Although I included the first SS launch in my scorecard from April, I'm decrementing my count by one after this consideration.

Was Musk involved with a "continuous discussion"?

Musk stated
"Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year
8:13 AM · Aug 31, 2022"

Doesn't even say "Missions", as you might claim a Mission is not a Mission if it is not completed. Just flights.

Are you using Musk as a ruler for consistency?

[steveleach]

^I have been persuaded by mG's argument re: failures and a continuous discussion.  Although I included the first SS launch in my scorecard from April, I'm decrementing my count by one after this consideration.

Was Musk involved with a "continuous discussion"?

Musk stated
"Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year
8:13 AM · Aug 31, 2022"

Doesn't even say "Missions", as you might claim a Mission is not a Mission if it is not completed. Just flights.

Are you using Musk as a ruler for consistency?

I suspect he's just pointing out that Musk's tweet about aiming for up to 100 flights this year will not have been made in the scope of those continuous discussions in these forums, so it is entirely possible he was including the Starship flights they were planning.

[kevin-rf]

Considering at that point in time he was still expecting at least a dozen Starship launches in 2023...

[spacenut]

SpaceX has about 12-15 Starlink launches they could do by the end of December, not counting other scheduled launches.  They could make it to 100.  I'll check back on the fist of December to see how many they have under their belt and how many they need to launch in December to make it.  Hustling, they could do it not counting any Starship launches. 

[Brigantine]

11 more in 33 days. (for 100 "SpaceX Launches" not restricted to Falcon)

B1078.6 & B1060.18 still being neglected

East Coast F9: (9 out of 11)
------------------------------------------------------------ e.g. possible next launch (# day turnaround)
- B1078, last flown 2023-09-16, EOY -106 days ---------- .6 LC-40/JRTI -11-18 (63)
- B1060, last flown 2023-09-24, EOY -98 days ---------- .18 LC-40/ASOG -11-24 (61)
- B1069, last flown 2023-09-30, EOY -92 days ---------- .11 LC-40/JRTI -11-30 (61) [Launched -11-18 (49)]
- B1067, last flown 2023-10-13, EOY -79 days ---------- .15 LC-40/ASOG -12-06 (54) [Launched -11-22 (40)]
- B1062, last flown 2023-10-18, EOY -74 days ----------- .17 LC-40/JRTI -12-12 (55) [Launched -11-28 (41)]
- B1080, last flown 2023-10-22, EOY -70 days ----------- .5 LC-40/ASOG -12-18 (57)
- B1077, last flown 2023-10-30, EOY -62 days ------------ .9 LC-40/JRTI -12-24 (55)
- B1058, last flown 2023-11-04, EOY -57 days ---------- .19 LC-40/ASOG -12-30 (56)
- B1073, last flown 2023-11-08, EOY -53 days ---- *
- B1081, last flown 2023-11-10, EOY -51 days ---------- .3 LC-39A/LZ-1 -12-31 (52) e.g. USSF-124
- B1076, last flown 2023-11-12, EOY -49 days

[EnigmaSCADA]

Though we've been speaking about 2023, it seems that barring something along the lines of a failure/standdown/investigation or some irresponsible government shutdown (hey, it's not exactly far fetched), 100 in 2024 should have better odds than not assuming the payloads are all ready and available (is Starlink enough to soak up nearly every launch alone?).

[mandrewa]

The smoothed count of SpaceX launches per month so far in 2023:

7 launches, December 2022
7 launches, January 2023
7 launches, February 2023
7 launches, March 2023
7 launches, April 2023
8 launches, May 2023
8 launches, June 2023
8 launches, July 2023
8 launches, August 2023
9 launches, September 2023
10 launches, October 2023
10 launches, November 2023

And here's the unsmoothed count:

7 launches, December 2022
7 launches, January 2023
6 launches, February 2023
8 launches, March 2023
7 launches, April 2023
9 launches, May 2023
7 launches, June 2023
8 launches, July 2023
8 launches, August 2023
10 launches, September 2023
9 launches, October 2023
10 launches, November 2023

[spacenut]

So 89 this year so far, 91 with the two Starship launches.  11 more to go, or 9 depending on how you count it.  It is going to be a photo finish.