Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year (Read 202880 times)

abaddon · « **Reply #60 on:** 03/02/2023 07:15 pm »

Quote from: Nomadd on 03/02/2023 06:39 pm

Those ASDS's don't cost that much and betting the farm on one not going offline unexpectedly seems kind of short sighted. Having a spare doesn't mean they'd have to have all the tugs and support gear for it.

"betting the farm" referring to an aspirational but hardly required arbitrary launch target seems overwrought.

SpaceX probably needs to be hitting a rate significantly greater than 100 a year launch rate right now, when considering hurricane season in the fall as well as the yearly range maintenance period which will shut down ranges for an extended period of time. I am in the ~80 launch camp, which would still be a tremendous achievement.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #61 on:** 03/02/2023 07:24 pm »

Quote from: abaddon on 03/02/2023 07:15 pm

Quote from: Nomadd on 03/02/2023 06:39 pm
Those ASDS's don't cost that much and betting the farm on one not going offline unexpectedly seems kind of short sighted. Having a spare doesn't mean they'd have to have all the tugs and support gear for it.
"betting the farm" referring to an aspirational but hardly required arbitrary launch target seems overwrought.

SpaceX probably needs to be hitting a rate significantly greater than 100 a year launch rate right now, when considering hurricane season in the fall as well as the yearly range maintenance period which will shut down ranges for an extended period of time. I am in the ~80 launch camp, which would still be a tremendous achievement.

But the SAME logic would’ve applied last year when they wanted 60 flights per year. They got 8 launches last year by March 2nd. They got 61 launches total last year. This year they got 13 so far. I just don’t understand the argument that this isn’t consistent with 100 launches. Can you please help me?

oldAtlas_Eguy · « **Reply #62 on:** 03/02/2023 07:48 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/02/2023 07:24 pm

Quote from: abaddon on 03/02/2023 07:15 pm
Quote from: Nomadd on 03/02/2023 06:39 pm
Those ASDS's don't cost that much and betting the farm on one not going offline unexpectedly seems kind of short sighted. Having a spare doesn't mean they'd have to have all the tugs and support gear for it.
"betting the farm" referring to an aspirational but hardly required arbitrary launch target seems overwrought.

SpaceX probably needs to be hitting a rate significantly greater than 100 a year launch rate right now, when considering hurricane season in the fall as well as the yearly range maintenance period which will shut down ranges for an extended period of time. I am in the ~80 launch camp, which would still be a tremendous achievement.
But the SAME logic would’ve applied last year when they wanted 60 flights per year. They got 8 launches last year by March 2nd. They got 61 launches total last year. This year they got 13 so far. I just don’t understand the argument that this isn’t consistent with 100 launches. Can you please help me?

Umm you missed 1:
13 F9 + 1 FH = 14
Tomorrow hopefully will add another.

14 for 2 March year over year is a 75% launch rate increase for same YTD period. As the year proceeds that large y/y increase value will shrink. 100/61 = a 64% increase. We are already ahead of the "game" for this year vs last year when the launch rate nearly doubled.

ZachF · « **Reply #63 on:** 03/02/2023 08:11 pm »

Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/02/2023 07:48 pm

Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/02/2023 07:24 pm
Quote from: abaddon on 03/02/2023 07:15 pm
Quote from: Nomadd on 03/02/2023 06:39 pm
Those ASDS's don't cost that much and betting the farm on one not going offline unexpectedly seems kind of short sighted. Having a spare doesn't mean they'd have to have all the tugs and support gear for it.
"betting the farm" referring to an aspirational but hardly required arbitrary launch target seems overwrought.

SpaceX probably needs to be hitting a rate significantly greater than 100 a year launch rate right now, when considering hurricane season in the fall as well as the yearly range maintenance period which will shut down ranges for an extended period of time. I am in the ~80 launch camp, which would still be a tremendous achievement.
But the SAME logic would’ve applied last year when they wanted 60 flights per year. They got 8 launches last year by March 2nd. They got 61 launches total last year. This year they got 13 so far. I just don’t understand the argument that this isn’t consistent with 100 launches. Can you please help me?
Umm you missed 1:
13 F9 + 1 FH = 14
Tomorrow hopefully will add another.

14 for 2 March year over year is a 75% launch rate increase for same YTD period. As the year proceeds that large y/y increase value will shrink. 100/61 = a 64% increase. We are already ahead of the "game" for this year vs last year when the launch rate nearly doubled.

It’s only March, but SpaceX have launched ~80% of the world’s adjusted mass to orbit so far.

Hell, they’re only like 3 launches away from beating second place China’s total for last year. In March…

abaddon · « **Reply #64 on:** 03/02/2023 08:53 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/02/2023 07:24 pm

Quote from: abaddon on 03/02/2023 07:15 pm
Quote from: Nomadd on 03/02/2023 06:39 pm
Those ASDS's don't cost that much and betting the farm on one not going offline unexpectedly seems kind of short sighted. Having a spare doesn't mean they'd have to have all the tugs and support gear for it.
"betting the farm" referring to an aspirational but hardly required arbitrary launch target seems overwrought.

SpaceX probably needs to be hitting a rate significantly greater than 100 a year launch rate right now, when considering hurricane season in the fall as well as the yearly range maintenance period which will shut down ranges for an extended period of time. I am in the ~80 launch camp, which would still be a tremendous achievement.
But the SAME logic would’ve applied last year when they wanted 60 flights per year. They got 8 launches last year by March 2nd. They got 61 launches total last year. This year they got 13 so far. I just don’t understand the argument that this isn’t consistent with 100 launches. Can you please help me?

As the launch rate increases, any fixed amount of time they can't launch becomes more impactful on the launch rate required around those times to achieve the desired total. I imagine that there were many times they exceeded a 60 per year launch rate last year to make up for those times. So it seems likely they will need to do the same this year. It's fair to question the "right now" part though.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #65 on:** 03/02/2023 09:00 pm »

Obviously if SpaceX could’ve launched at a higher rate earlier last year, they would’ve done it. But they couldn’t. It took time to add launch capacity and improve processes. So they improved capacity over time, improving as 2022 went along. They started 2022 at about 45-50 annualized launch rate and by the end of the year had an annualized launch rate of about 80/year with overall average of 61/year.

“But you need to start out ahead” just doesn’t have anything to do with how reality works.

abaddon · « **Reply #66 on:** 03/02/2023 09:04 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/02/2023 09:00 pm

“But you need to start out ahead” just doesn’t have anything to do with how reality works.

Perhaps it wasn't clear, I was addressing that with "it's fair to question the 'right now' part though".

Zed_Noir · « **Reply #67 on:** 03/02/2023 09:19 pm »

Quote from: Nomadd on 03/02/2023 06:39 pm

Those ASDS's don't cost that much and betting the farm on one not going offline unexpectedly seems kind of short sighted. Having a spare doesn't mean they'd have to have all the tugs and support gear for it.

There don't seems to be any more barges similar to the ones in service available for conversion to ASDS. So additional resources will be needed to convert something else into ASDS.

However no disagreement that SpaceX is rolling the dice with every Falcon 9 booster recovery attempt that one of the current ASDS might get sideline from a fail landing. Especially with no extra barge available for maintenance float, never mind one of the barges out of action for serious repairs from a fail landing.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #68 on:** 03/02/2023 10:06 pm »

Marmac 305 is being built right now: https://www.marinelink.com/news/mcdonough-build-new-foot-deck-barge-501603

kevin-rf · « **Reply #69 on:** 03/02/2023 11:57 pm »

I don't see anything in the article that says SpaceX is the customer. Is there other information to indicate this new badge will belong to SpaceX?

Zed_Noir · « **Reply #70 on:** 03/03/2023 12:47 am »

Quote from: kevin-rf on 03/02/2023 11:57 pm

I don't see anything in the article that says SpaceX is the customer. Is there other information to indicate this new badge will belong to SpaceX?

Ahem, none of the ASDS barges belongs to SpaceX. Think they are leased.

Maybe Blue Origin is the leasee of the Mermac 305 barge.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #71 on:** 03/03/2023 12:48 am »

Quote from: kevin-rf on 03/02/2023 11:57 pm

I don't see anything in the article that says SpaceX is the customer. Is there other information to indicate this new badge will belong to SpaceX?

I didn't say they were. I was responding to the claim: "There don't seems to be any more barges similar to the ones in service available for conversion to ASDS. "

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #72 on:** 03/03/2023 08:34 pm »

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1631766563002155008

Quote

The team is launching on average every 4 days

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1631746850054352897

Quote

169 mT to orbit this year so far

litton4 · « **Reply #73 on:** 03/04/2023 11:01 am »

That's about 1 starship launch, isn't it?

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #74 on:** 03/04/2023 01:37 pm »

Quote from: litton4 on 03/04/2023 11:01 am

That's about 1 starship launch, isn't it?

Yep

The world is not ready for 150 MT to orbit in a fully reuseable rocket.

abaddon · « **Reply #75 on:** 03/04/2023 02:14 pm »

Quote from: litton4 on 03/04/2023 11:01 am

That's about 1 starship launch, isn't it?

Or three Falcon Heavy launches. In theory. Demonstrated is a different matter, of course, which is worth keeping in mind.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #76 on:** 03/04/2023 03:20 pm »

Quote from: abaddon on 03/04/2023 02:14 pm

Quote from: litton4 on 03/04/2023 11:01 am
That's about 1 starship launch, isn't it?
Or three Falcon Heavy launches. In theory. Demonstrated is a different matter, of course, which is worth keeping in mind.

50t to Leo wouldn’t be a challenge for FH, it just needs a stronger (heavier) payload adapter.

Stan-1967 · « **Reply #77 on:** 03/04/2023 07:46 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/04/2023 03:20 pm

Quote from: abaddon on 03/04/2023 02:14 pm
Quote from: litton4 on 03/04/2023 11:01 am
That's about 1 starship launch, isn't it?
Or three Falcon Heavy launches. In theory. Demonstrated is a different matter, of course, which is worth keeping in mind.
50t to Leo wouldn’t be a challenge for FH, it just needs a stronger (heavier) payload adapter.

I think FH would also need the extended fairing in addition to the payload adapter to substantially increase the payload of FH when carrying Starlink satellites. Even with the new fairing they will implement for NSSL launches, they would likely only be able to get around 40mT to LEO due to volume constraints.

There are no other prospective payloads of that mass currently targeted to LEO, so SpaceX getting to 100 flight per year is a Starlink deployment metric that FH will have little to contribute towards the goal. It may in fact take away flight opportunities for for better pad utilization with F9.

FH is still interesting to SpaceX for high value payloads that need the extra DV for high energy orbits, but I think it trades poorly against standard F9 for LEO given it has greater integration, refurbishment, and ground support cost burden.

eeergo · « **Reply #78 on:** 03/09/2023 09:40 am »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/02/2023 02:45 pm

Sorry, it takes time LOL.

One week later, mighty complicated to take a pre-compiled Excel sheet and try to adjust to a clear exponential...

Robotbeat · « **Reply #79 on:** 03/09/2023 01:07 pm »

Well I deserve this criticism LOL.