SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year

[octavo]

I know there's some real pedantic sticklers on NSF, which forces me to write the following disclaimers/qualifiers in a Quixotic attempt to head them off:

*I am aware there's a launch or two that didn't actually take place in French Guyana

**Numbers are quite possibly incorrect one way or another depending on what one considers a "success" or if you have various qualifiers regarding sub/orbital but the numbers are close enough that the general idea remains.

***yes, i agree there's little logic comparing launches from 50 years ago to the present, but we're just space enthusiasts, we're having fun, not making serious space policy decisions. Also see * regarding the maiden Diamant launch.

Spoilsport!

[Robotbeat]

So SpaceX was trending to 99 launches this year, but now with the current launch, they’re back up to 100 (well, 99.8 ) estimated launches with my model.

[ZachF]

So SpaceX was trending to 99 launches this year, but now with the current launch, they’re back up to 100 (well, 99. estimated launches with my model.

17 to go with 50 days left…

Basically if SX can keep up a 10 per month pace with Falcon and launch Starship once, they hit 100.

[ZachF]

Now 16 to go in 49 days to hit 100 

[abaddon]

So SpaceX just launched four times in five days, have they ever done that before?  Feels like with 39A being so infrequent there have not been a lot of opportunities, but I haven't checked.

[Brigantine]

Now 16 to go in 49 days to hit 100 

It's now close enough that boosters only need to fly once each to reach 100 launches, with B1076 now in reserve - Along with potentially B1082 once it gets commissioned. Though one or two may still fly twice this year, especially at Vandenberg. 49/50 days is also a fairly typical turnaround time, for B1076/B1071 to fly again right around the end of this year. (Same for 44 days after the next booster that lands NET Nov 17)

There are plenty of missions NET Nov/Dec 2023, enough to get beyond 110 launches. So that shouldn't be any constraint.
(It currently lists 16 Starlink and 12 other missions)


If LC-40, JRTI and ASOG keep up the pace of a flight every 6 days, that's 8 more launches this year.

How many can LC-39A get? With re-configuring, and FH mission USSF-52 NET Dec 08 right in the middle of the rest of the year... Is 2 more launches the best we can hope for? Get USSF-52 up on schedule, reconfigure and get one expendable or RTLS F9 launch up within the year, before IM-1 on Jan 12. (I don't really know/get LC-39A and launch equipment... set up efficiently but goes slow)

With 1 likely Starship flight, then to reach 100 we likely need 5 from the West Coast. There's 4 in the fleet, where can #5 come from?
~ Default option: After B1063.15 flies, B1063.16 just has another fast-ish turnaround. (or possibly B1061.17 then B1061.18)
~ Might B1082.1 be commissioned, ready to launch in 2023, and go to the West Coast fleet?
~ Will they just send one from the East Coast fleet e.g. B1073.12, which used to happen often?

P.S. It also wouldn't be surprising for e.g. LC-39A to only get 1 flight, or USSF-52 is delayed and LC-39A launches nothing. Or for any launch site to end up +1 or -1 for mundane reasons like unexpected good weather. Maybe even a surprise #3 for Starship. This allows anything from a 2023 total of 95 to 104. (though more likely 96 to 101)

Hypothetical line-up of launches 85-100 for 2023, with boosters, launch sites and landing locations

West Coast F9: (4 boosters in the fleet, 5 launches)
------------------------------------------------------------ e.g. possible next launch (# day turnaround)
- B1063.15, last flown 2023-10-09, EOY -83 days ---- B1063.15 SLC-4E/OCISLY -11-21 (43) [Launched -11-20 (42)]
- B1061.17, last flown 2023-10-21, EOY -71 days ---- .17 SLC-4E/LZ-4 -12-01 (41) e.g. 425 Project [Launched -12-01 (41)]
- B1075, last flown 2023-10-29, EOY -63 days -------- .8 SLC-4E/OCISLY -12-11 (43) Launched -12-24 to LZ-4 (56)]
- B1071, last flown 2023-11-11, EOY -50 days --- .13 SLC-4E/LZ-4 -12-21 (40) e.g. SARah 2&3 [Launched -12-08 to OCISLY (27)]
-
- * new addition to West Coast fleet? ------ [YES! B1082.1 SLC-4E/OCISLY NET Dec 15 31]
e.g. B1073.12 SLC-4E/OCISLY -12-31 (53) * or otherwise just B1063.16 (40 41)

(Note the 4 or 5 consecutive flights with 40-43 day turnarounds, which is short compared to the East Coast fleet. I can imagine a 5th West Coast booster happening sooner rather than later)

East Coast F9: (9 out of 11)
- B1078, last flown 2023-09-16, EOY -106 days ---------- .6 LC-40/JRTI -11-18 (63) [Launched -12-03 to ASOG (78)]
- B1060, last flown 2023-09-24, EOY -98 days ---------- .18 LC-40/ASOG -11-24 (61)
- B1069, last flown 2023-09-30, EOY -92 days ---------- .11 LC-40/JRTI -11-30 (61) [Launched -11-18 (49) AND .12 NET Dec 29]
- B1067, last flown 2023-10-13, EOY -79 days ---------- .15 LC-40/ASOG -12-06 (54) [Launched -11-22 (40)]
- B1062, last flown 2023-10-18, EOY -74 days ----------- .17 LC-40/JRTI -12-12 (55) [Launched -11-28 (41)]
- B1080, last flown 2023-10-22, EOY -70 days ----------- .5 LC-40/ASOG -12-18 (57)
- B1077, last flown 2023-10-30, EOY -62 days ------------ .9 LC-40/JRTI -12-24 (55) [Launched -12-07 (38)]
- B1058, last flown 2023-11-04, EOY -57 days ---------- .19 LC-40/ASOG -12-30 (56) [Launched -12-23 to JRTI (49)]
- B1073, last flown 2023-11-08, EOY -53 days ---- *
- B1081, last flown 2023-11-10, EOY -51 days -------- .3 LC-39A/LZ-1 -12-31 (52) [Launched -12-19 SLC-40→ASOG (39)]
- B1076, last flown 2023-11-12, EOY -49 days
                                                                                [Update] B1081.3 LC-40/JRTI -12-31 (52) instead? (pad-limited)

East Coast Falcon Heavy: (1)
- FH USSF-52: B1084 (new) & B1064/B1065, last flown 2023-10-13. Next: LC-39A/LZ-1&2 NET Dec 08 29 (56 77 day turnaround)

Texas Starship: (1)
- B9/S25 (new) First launch NET Nov 17 [Launched -11-18]


Reserve:
- B1076, last flown 2023-11-12, EOY -49 days (East Coast, currently landed on ASOG)
- B1082, currently in testing/commissioning. Ready for flight this year? Assigned to Starlink 7-9 NET Dec 31
- * next West Coast landing to be turned around quickly? (B1063.16 or less likely B1061.18) [Update : flew 2023-11-20, EOY -41]

NET 2024:
- B1072 reserved for Cygnus CRS NG-20
- B1083 ready for flight in 2024?
- B10/S28 Unlikely to get a license before 2024? (Texas)


It's half way to the end of 2023 since I did this little hypothetical, based on each booster flying 1 more time (asterix* for exceptions). Time for a review.

> 16 launches remaining in 49 days has become 8 launches remaining in 24 days (both have halved)
> The east coast fleet seem to like doing ~40 day turnarounds and leaving a couple of spare boosters gathering dust
> This ~40 days is also where the west coast fleet is operating, but they don't have spares if cadence increases
> SLC-4E launches are following expectations, and will still likely launch B1075.8, B1071.13 and B1063.16* ~10 days apart.
→ They are trying for a 7 day turnaround tomorrow, so keeping a tab on a bonus "B1061.18*" on a 30 day turnaround
> LC-39A has been delayed 3 days with [B1084/B1064.5/B1065.5], making "B1081.3" unlikely - but still one to watch for
> SLC-40 is running 5 days ahead of my expectation, so I now also expect a 6th launch in December - "B1073.12"
→ Add to that a maybe 30% chance of a 7th launch in December "B1076.10" from SLC-40, if they can get a 4.95 day pad turnaround average
→ As Galactic Penguin observed, an 8th "B1069.12*" is very unlikely, barring at least one 3-day turnaround. It needs a 4.13 day average
> Boca Chica should be done for the year, but B10/S28 also gets a tab

I had SLC-40 on 6 day turnarounds, which was quite conservative of me, trying to account for e.g. weather and more customer payloads. That's not how it went down - 5/5 have been Starlinks and they've had good fortunes threading weather needles. Even looking forward, this pad only 1 customer launch NET 2023 - Ovzon-3, which is now RTLS, so 3-6 more Starlinks.

anything from a 2023 total of 95 to 104. (though more likely 96 to 101)

That's now 97 to 105 (though more likely 98 to 102) total SpaceX flights in 2023
Which is 95 to 102 (though more likely 96 to 100) Falcon flights in 2023 - with 100 right on the margin, requiring something unprecedented

[AmigaClone]

I suspect SpaceX might be planning to use the maiden flight of boosters B1082 and B1083 for crew missions. Currently SpaceX has three crewed missions (Axiom 3, Polaris Dawn, and Crew-8) scheduled for 1Q 2024.

[spacenuance]

I suspect SpaceX might be planning to use the maiden flight of boosters B1082 and B1083 for crew missions. Currently SpaceX has three crewed missions (Axiom 3, Polaris Dawn, and Crew-8) scheduled for 1Q 2024.

Crew flights, or for the DOD (upcoming USSF-124 in December). Or maybe that ASBM mission from Vandy NET December, it has military payloads that make the mission worth well, well north of 1 billion.

[Comga]

A brief note:
For the first time, SpaceX has conducted 90 launches within the last year (365 days).
(The four estimates for the calendar year 2023, as previously described, are still spread from 93 to 103.)

And now SpaceX has conducted 94 launches within the last year (365 days).
Here is the chart, and an expanded version, of my four models, which converge as the end of the year approaches.
Extrapolating "Year to Date launches" is pessimistic, but is above the trendline of ~93.
Extrapolating "Launches in the past 365 days" is less pessimistic, and is above it's trendline of ~96.
Adding to the "Year to Date launches" the remaining days divided by the current average launch iterval, which has just dropped below 3.0 days, seems more realistic, and is over 100 and headed for ~102.
Extrapolating the ever increasing launch rate, has been trending to between 100 and 105 since the summer, and is now at ~102
While the"Launches in the past 365 days" will soon exceed 100, whether SpaceX gets there before 1-Jan-2024 remains nip and tuck.

[Brigantine]

Now 16 to go in 49 days to hit 100 

Now 13 to go in 41 days. It's gonna be close

[M.E.T.]

Now 16 to go in 49 days to hit 100 

Now 13 to go in 41 days. It's gonna be close

Including or excluding Starship?

[Brigantine]

Including or excluding Starship?

Including IFT-1 and IFT-2

[steveleach]

78 Falcons from Januay to end of October, 9 Falcons launched or manifested in November, plus 2 Starship launches = 89.

My bet would another 9 Falcons in December bringing it to a total of 98 launches for the year, but I wouldn't want to bet against 10 Falcons or another Starship in December (or both).

[M.E.T.]

Including or excluding Starship?

Including IFT-1 and IFT-2

Great as they are, those aren’t successful orbital launches. I wouldn’t count them.

[steveleach]

Including or excluding Starship?

Including IFT-1 and IFT-2

Great as they are, those aren’t successful orbital launches. I wouldn’t count them.

Well, everyone can define the goalposts as they see fit, but I believe most people are assuming Elon was including Starship launches (successful or not) in his 100.

[rfdesigner]

Just to add more noise...   I note on the Starship notifications thread, Musk has said OFT3 could be ready (technically) in 3~4 weeks.

I know that's musk-weeks, but we might get one extra point on the graph from starship this year.

[M.E.T.]

Must say, I find this thread bemusing - what with the statistical trend graphs and whatnot trying to figure out how Elon supposedly came to 100.

Elon said 100 because it is a nice round number, and if they end up hitting say 91 that’s a massive 50% growth from last year.

He didn’t calculate it on an S-curve or something. It was a stretch goal he set for his team, and the fact that they are getting close to actually achieving it is damn impressive.

Little did he know he would set the nerds running off to do Monte Carlo simulations or what have you to try and work out how many minutes before midnight on 31 December the 100th F9 would breach the firmament.🙄

[steveleach]

Must say, I find this thread bemusing - what with the statistical trend graphs and whatnot trying to figure out how Elon supposedly came to 100.

Elon said 100 because it is a nice round number, and if they end up hitting say 91 that’s a massive 50% growth from last year.

He didn’t calculate it on an S-curve or something. It was a stretch goal he set for his team, and the fact that they are getting close to actually achieving it is damn impressive.

Little did he know he would set the nerds running off to do Monte Carlo simulations or what have you to try and work out how many minutes before midnight on 31 December the 100th F9 would breach the firmament.🙄

...says the guy questioning whether 2 of the launches count 

Besides which, leave us be, we're having fun.

[M.E.T.]

Must say, I find this thread bemusing - what with the statistical trend graphs and whatnot trying to figure out how Elon supposedly came to 100.

Elon said 100 because it is a nice round number, and if they end up hitting say 91 that’s a massive 50% growth from last year.

He didn’t calculate it on an S-curve or something. It was a stretch goal he set for his team, and the fact that they are getting close to actually achieving it is damn impressive.

Little did he know he would set the nerds running off to do Monte Carlo simulations or what have you to try and work out how many minutes before midnight on 31 December the 100th F9 would breach the firmament.🙄

...says the guy questioning whether 2 of the launches count 

Besides which, leave us be, we're having fun.

Hey, I’m interested in the final result too, hence me checking in every couple of days. I just chuckle every time I see two contributors having a spat about which formula to use to estimate the non-linear cadence progression, or whatever.

It’s not the steadily increasing run-off flow from an ever faster melting glacier, guys. It’s rocket launches impacted by a whole host of independent external factors, any one of which can impact the trend-line dramatically on any given day.

Whichever predictive model ends up being closest will have a whole lot of luck to thank for its eventual success.

[alugobi]

It’s rocket launches impacted by a whole host of independent external factors, any one of which can impact the trend-line dramatically on any given day.

Indeed.  When this thread started, I said that I was skeptical for this very reason.  Too much not in SX's control. 

But, they're doing great and it's a banner year regardless of the final score.