SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year

[DanClemmensen]

I ran my model yesterday and got an estimate of 97 launches this year. The delays this month are hurting the average. But partly that’s a temporary thing due to Psyche.

If you recall we discussed contention for LC-39A as one possible contraint on the the number of 2023 launches. We discussed the time it takes to reconfig for FH and also for Dragon. It's not just Psyche. It's only a few lost opportunities per year, but that may be enough to keep it below 100.

[Robotbeat]

Pent-up launches from delaying launches until Psyche goes because of weird analysis rules by NASA. Not a long term thing.

[eeergo]

I ran my model yesterday and got an estimate of 97 launches this year. The delays this month are hurting the average. But partly that’s a temporary thing due to Psyche.

Have you tried running a fit of the predictions of your (unstable?) analysis since the start of this thread? Not being exhaustive here, but as as few of us have pointed out, it reached a maximum of 110+ at some point in April. Maybe they do follow a trend that can give a realistic estimate of the intercept on Dec 31st.

[kevin-rf]

Today's Psyche launch gave me some time to chew on the pad turn around at SLC-40 and SLC-4E. I thought I would share since it impacts the great 2023, 100 launch debate.

As we know, SLC-40 has been doing the brunt of this year's work. I count 40 out of 72 launches. At the current rate it should easily exceed 50. The pad has tightened up to a 4-6 day turn. With a few exceptions, SLC-4E is averaging around 14 days. I am ignoring LC-39A. I strongly suspect LC-39A will host fewer launches in 2023 (currently 11) than it did in 2022 (19).

A bit of Trivia, by my count SLC-40 has now hosted 147 Falcon 9 launches, SLC-4E 53, and LC-39A 71.

[kevin-rf]

Not to pour RP-1 on the fire, but....
-SLC-40 is trending toward 53 launches
-SLC-4E is trending towards 27 launches
-LC-39A if we squint and look at it sideways. 15?

Total: 95, so 5 short....

[steveleach]

Not to pour RP-1 on the fire, but....
-SLC-40 is trending toward 53 launches
-SLC-4E is trending towards 27 launches
-LC-40 if we squint and look at it sideways. 15?

Total: 95, so 5 short....

Without wanting to dredge up old arguments, it does depend on what kind of trend you use.

They did 69 (not including Starship) in the first 9 months of the year, so they would need only 26 to get to 95, which is 8+9+9.  We know they are capable of launching 9 or 10 times in a month, as they have done that before.

My prediction would be 9+9+10 (not necessarily in that order) for these last three months, for a total of 97 Falcon launches, plus the Starship launch for 98 launches overall. 

I also wouldn't bet against 9+10+10, plus another Starship launch, which would give them the 100.

[Robotbeat]

Pent-up launches from delaying launches until Psyche goes because of weird analysis rules by NASA. Not a long term thing.

…and as of today, my model is back up to a projected 100 launches in 2023.

[ZachF]

October is now 5 launches down and at least 5 more planned.

They need 10/month to hit 100 and this looks more likely as time goes on IMHO.

[steveleach]

October is now 5 launches down and at least 5 more planned.

They need 10/month to hit 100 and this looks more likely as time goes on IMHO.

Two tens and a nine, if you include the Starship launch, and assume that the FWS review delays the next Starship launch until next year.

[Zed_Noir]

So is SpaceX going to have holiday no launch periods for Christmas and New Year for 2023?

Or are we going to see Falcon 9 on a pad or several pads during the final minutes of 2023 for the push to 100 launches.

[steveleach]

So is SpaceX going to have holiday no launch periods for Christmas and New Year for 2023?

Or are we going to see Falcon 9 on a pad or several pads during the final minutes of 2023 for the push to 100 launches.

They had 7 launches in December 2022, including on the 28th and 30th December. They launched on the 23rd December in 2018 & 2017.

I can't find any previous launches on the 25th/26th December, so they may skip those, but you can easily accommodate a two day gap in a 10 of 31 day schedule, even assuming they don't launch twice on any single day.

[kevin-rf]

October is now 5 launches down and at least 5 more planned.

They need 10/month to hit 100 and this looks more likely as time goes on IMHO.

Not seeing it for October.
SLC-40 looks at best like it can host 2 more launches this month.  One on the 21st (nextspaceflight) and then SpaceX would really need to squeeze to get 2 more in the remaining 10 days. One is more likely.
SLC-4E would most likely host one on the 21st. It will be pushing things to turn the pad for a launch by the 31st.
LC-39A is cold until November,  CRS SpX-29
Starship, they need that license...

Comfortably three more in October. It would push pad turnaround records to get to five. 

More likely during the first few days of November will have three launches.  That could setup November for a record number of launches. Think 5-6 from SLC-40, 3 from SLC-4E, potentially 3 from LC-39A. Get a license for Starship and even 13 is possible.

If SLC-4E hosts an RTLS, could it see 4 in November?

[EnigmaSCADA]

For what it's worth, I found a "show R²" button on the charts.

For the exponential trend line it is 0.663 and for the linear trend it is 0.673 which (I think) means that the linear trend is a slightly better fit (?)

I also tried going (yearly not monthly) back to 2012, and can get an exponential trend line with an annual growth of 34% out of it (significantly less than the 55% that best matches the current year) and an R² of 0.949; the linear trend gives negative launch rates in 2012 & 2013, so I'm not sure it is valuable.

That's it: the annual launch rate is compatible with a linear trend, within the noise, and has been so in recent years. An exponential trend is also compatible but slightly worse and with a very small exponent (i.e. approaching linear).

Moreover, the fine-tuning necessary to avoid over/under-shooting of an exponential function is much stronger, while multi-year-fitting exponentials that cover a few years back don't predict close to 100 launches this year, plus require piecemeal treatment of certain periods or tampering with the slope in approximately-yearly periods to fit the data well enough and not explode toward unfeasible values (like the linear trend does too, but subject to more error in case of inaccuracies in the fit).

The overall historical launch trend, while still noisy, is much more clearly exponential, as a simple visual inspection clearly tells you - although in reality it will taper off at some "saturation" value achieving something like a sigmoid, at least in the medium term.

The thing is, it looks like the growth is accelerating, not tapering off. 

From 2012 to 2022 it was trending at 35% a year.
From 2021 to 2023 it has been trending at 55% a year.

Is it common to see exponential growth turn into linear growth at a higher rate than it was while exponential?

Data can be noisy year to year.


Here’s what SpaceX dV adjusted payload growth looks like:

2008: 179
2009: 217
2010: 9,734
2011: 0
2012: 14,896
2013: 16,938
2014: 47,000
2015: 42,024
2016: 69,380
2017: 174,965
2018: 184,835
2019: 151,674
2020: 333,141
2021: 409,922
2022: 778,787
2023ytd: 887,136

SpaceX is on pace for 1,300t+ adjusted payload mass this year, already ahead of last year with ~four months to go. To provide more context with this, the cumulative total for the entire European space industry since its first launch is 3,224t, and the Chinese total is 2,241t (SpaceX is now 3,121t). The previous record tonnage in a year was 608t by the USSR in 1988.

Tonnage will be a better barometer than launches as the switch to Starship happens… as impressive as projected SpaceX’s massive 1,300t total for 2023 is, that’s only like a dozen Starship launches. We may be soon coming to a point where SpaceX is lifting as much quarterly as the entire combined launch histories of Chinese or European space industries… 

Where do these tonnage numbers come from? Is there some site/database where one can view them? Because if there is, then you are my best friend and whoever compiled this data and made it available is my new deity of choice (meritocratic theology)! Please say "YES!".

[edzieba]

For what it's worth, I found a "show R²" button on the charts.

For the exponential trend line it is 0.663 and for the linear trend it is 0.673 which (I think) means that the linear trend is a slightly better fit (?)

I also tried going (yearly not monthly) back to 2012, and can get an exponential trend line with an annual growth of 34% out of it (significantly less than the 55% that best matches the current year) and an R² of 0.949; the linear trend gives negative launch rates in 2012 & 2013, so I'm not sure it is valuable.

That's it: the annual launch rate is compatible with a linear trend, within the noise, and has been so in recent years. An exponential trend is also compatible but slightly worse and with a very small exponent (i.e. approaching linear).

Moreover, the fine-tuning necessary to avoid over/under-shooting of an exponential function is much stronger, while multi-year-fitting exponentials that cover a few years back don't predict close to 100 launches this year, plus require piecemeal treatment of certain periods or tampering with the slope in approximately-yearly periods to fit the data well enough and not explode toward unfeasible values (like the linear trend does too, but subject to more error in case of inaccuracies in the fit).

The overall historical launch trend, while still noisy, is much more clearly exponential, as a simple visual inspection clearly tells you - although in reality it will taper off at some "saturation" value achieving something like a sigmoid, at least in the medium term.

The thing is, it looks like the growth is accelerating, not tapering off. 

From 2012 to 2022 it was trending at 35% a year.
From 2021 to 2023 it has been trending at 55% a year.

Is it common to see exponential growth turn into linear growth at a higher rate than it was while exponential?

Data can be noisy year to year.


Here’s what SpaceX dV adjusted payload growth looks like:

2008: 179
2009: 217
2010: 9,734
2011: 0
2012: 14,896
2013: 16,938
2014: 47,000
2015: 42,024
2016: 69,380
2017: 174,965
2018: 184,835
2019: 151,674
2020: 333,141
2021: 409,922
2022: 778,787
2023ytd: 887,136

SpaceX is on pace for 1,300t+ adjusted payload mass this year, already ahead of last year with ~four months to go. To provide more context with this, the cumulative total for the entire European space industry since its first launch is 3,224t, and the Chinese total is 2,241t (SpaceX is now 3,121t). The previous record tonnage in a year was 608t by the USSR in 1988.

Tonnage will be a better barometer than launches as the switch to Starship happens… as impressive as projected SpaceX’s massive 1,300t total for 2023 is, that’s only like a dozen Starship launches. We may be soon coming to a point where SpaceX is lifting as much quarterly as the entire combined launch histories of Chinese or European space industries… 

Where do these tonnage numbers come from? Is there some site/database where one can view them? Because if there is, then you are my best friend and whoever compiled this data and made it available is my new deity of choice (meritocratic theology)! Please say "YES!".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches

[DanClemmensen]

For what it's worth, I found a "show R²" button on the charts.

For the exponential trend line it is 0.663 and for the linear trend it is 0.673 which (I think) means that the linear trend is a slightly better fit (?)

I also tried going (yearly not monthly) back to 2012, and can get an exponential trend line with an annual growth of 34% out of it (significantly less than the 55% that best matches the current year) and an R² of 0.949; the linear trend gives negative launch rates in 2012 & 2013, so I'm not sure it is valuable.

That's it: the annual launch rate is compatible with a linear trend, within the noise, and has been so in recent years. An exponential trend is also compatible but slightly worse and with a very small exponent (i.e. approaching linear).

Moreover, the fine-tuning necessary to avoid over/under-shooting of an exponential function is much stronger, while multi-year-fitting exponentials that cover a few years back don't predict close to 100 launches this year, plus require piecemeal treatment of certain periods or tampering with the slope in approximately-yearly periods to fit the data well enough and not explode toward unfeasible values (like the linear trend does too, but subject to more error in case of inaccuracies in the fit).

The overall historical launch trend, while still noisy, is much more clearly exponential, as a simple visual inspection clearly tells you - although in reality it will taper off at some "saturation" value achieving something like a sigmoid, at least in the medium term.

The thing is, it looks like the growth is accelerating, not tapering off. 

From 2012 to 2022 it was trending at 35% a year.
From 2021 to 2023 it has been trending at 55% a year.

Is it common to see exponential growth turn into linear growth at a higher rate than it was while exponential?

Data can be noisy year to year.


Here’s what SpaceX dV adjusted payload growth looks like:

2008: 179
2009: 217
2010: 9,734
2011: 0
2012: 14,896
2013: 16,938
2014: 47,000
2015: 42,024
2016: 69,380
2017: 174,965
2018: 184,835
2019: 151,674
2020: 333,141
2021: 409,922
2022: 778,787
2023ytd: 887,136

SpaceX is on pace for 1,300t+ adjusted payload mass this year, already ahead of last year with ~four months to go. To provide more context with this, the cumulative total for the entire European space industry since its first launch is 3,224t, and the Chinese total is 2,241t (SpaceX is now 3,121t). The previous record tonnage in a year was 608t by the USSR in 1988.

Tonnage will be a better barometer than launches as the switch to Starship happens… as impressive as projected SpaceX’s massive 1,300t total for 2023 is, that’s only like a dozen Starship launches. We may be soon coming to a point where SpaceX is lifting as much quarterly as the entire combined launch histories of Chinese or European space industries… 

Where do these tonnage numbers come from? Is there some site/database where one can view them? Because if there is, then you are my best friend and whoever compiled this data and made it available is my new deity of choice (meritocratic theology)! Please say "YES!".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches

But let's be careful about what Wikipedia calls "citogenesis". Wikipedia contributors are supposed to cite reliable sources, but when a supposedly reliable source gets lazy and uses Wikipedia instead of a "real" source, we get into a loop, and if an error or speculation creeps in somewhere it will be propagated, To avoid contributing to this, please cite Wikipedia when you use these numbers (or anything else in Wikipedia.) Wikipedia is the largest and best Encyclopedia the world has ever seen, but it's not perfect.

[steveleach]

For what it's worth, this is what those tonnage numbers look like, with an exponential trend fitted by Google Sheets.

If anyone knows what the trend equation "3166e^0.395x" means, I'd love an explanation.

[launchwatcher]

For what it's worth, this is what those tonnage numbers look like, with an exponential trend fitted by Google Sheets.

If anyone knows what the trend equation "3166e^0.395x" means, I'd love an explanation.

I read it as:

Y = 3166 * e^{0.395 * X}

and eyeballing it, it looks like X = year-2008

I get:

2020: 362298.6825
2021: 537790.4367
2022: 798287.6223
2023: 1184965.526

which looks consistent with the fitted curve on the graph.

[steveleach]

For what it's worth, this is what those tonnage numbers look like, with an exponential trend fitted by Google Sheets.

If anyone knows what the trend equation "3166e^0.395x" means, I'd love an explanation.

I read it as:

Y = 3166 * e^{0.395 * X}

and eyeballing it, it looks like X = year-2008

I get:

2020: 362298.6825
2021: 537790.4367
2022: 798287.6223
2023: 1184965.526

which looks consistent with the fitted curve on the graph.

How the **** did you manage to figure that out? 

 

[Reynold]

For what it's worth, this is what those tonnage numbers look like, with an exponential trend fitted by Google Sheets.

If anyone knows what the trend equation "3166e^0.395x" means, I'd love an explanation.

I read it as:

Y = 3166 * e^{0.395 * X}

and eyeballing it, it looks like X = year-2008

I get:

2020: 362298.6825
2021: 537790.4367
2022: 798287.6223
2023: 1184965.526

which looks consistent with the fitted curve on the graph.

Sweet, so by around the year 2050, SpaceX will be launching the entire mass of the Earth into orbit each year!  Global warming = Solved!    

[Robotbeat]

e^(0.395*x) implies a 48% annual growth rate in launched mass.

That implies about 43 million tons launched per year by 2050 assuming about 1000 tonnes this year, not the mass of the Earth. (But the growth rate will still slow before that.)