Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year (Read 202865 times)

Robotbeat · « **Reply #520 on:** 09/07/2023 04:35 pm »

Well it’s beyond the scope of this thread, but probably a sigmoid would be the best sort of curve to model the cumulative launches of the Falcon family, if you assume they’ll transition basically everything over to Starship in the next decade or two and then retire Falcon, even if the company as a whole continues the compounding growth trend in mass launched per year.

edzieba · « **Reply #521 on:** 09/07/2023 04:35 pm »

Replotting the 1-year rolling window of launches on a log scale (and with Mk.1 eyeball trend lines, because ther eis only so much Excel I can stomach in one sitting), it seems not unreasonable for SpaceX to have completed 100 launches within a 1 year period by the end of this year, as long as the current trend of increasing launches continues. They were previously increasing launch rate at a greater rate, but that appears to have been only for a short period.

steveleach · « **Reply #522 on:** 09/07/2023 06:27 pm »

Quote from: edzieba on 09/07/2023 04:35 pm

They were previously increasing launch rate at a greater rate, but that appears to have been only for a short period.

I think I mentioned up-thread that the long term trend could be viewed as basically exponential with three below-trend years due to covid and other external factors, followed by a return to trend. That return to trend would appear as above-trend growth for a short period.

ZachF · « **Reply #523 on:** 09/09/2023 12:52 am »

Quote from: meekGee on 09/06/2023 02:55 am

Quote from: steveleach on 09/05/2023 09:42 pm
Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/05/2023 09:23 pm
It’s not changing by smaller and smaller multiples. It’s noisy.
This.

@meekGee, I'm now convinced you are just trolling us. I'm done.
The ratio is.
+100% from 30 to 60, +50% to 60% from 60 to 90-100 launches, then +20% to 30% for SpaceX own projected flight rates.

Nowhere else would someone say: "I made 30 articles, then 60, then 90-100, then 120" and anyone would say "wow! Exponential growth".

They would say "nice that you're still growing, but clearly growth is slowing down".

YoY launch data is generally so noisy that you’re better off looking at stuff like 3y rolling averages so see the underlying trends, and tonnage is a better metric for growth than launches anyway.

ZachF · « **Reply #524 on:** 09/25/2023 12:21 pm »

9 launches In September so far with room for more, and now 69 YTD total.

Matching this out to the end of the year gets to 100.

steveleach · « **Reply #525 on:** 09/25/2023 02:07 pm »

Quote from: ZachF on 09/25/2023 12:21 pm

9 launches In September so far with room for more, and now 69 YTD total.

Matching this out to the end of the year gets to 100.

Is that 100 in total (including Starship), or 100 Falcon launches?

Vahe231991 · « **Reply #526 on:** 09/25/2023 04:32 pm »

Quote from: steveleach on 09/25/2023 02:07 pm

Quote from: ZachF on 09/25/2023 12:21 pm
9 launches In September so far with room for more, and now 69 YTD total.

Matching this out to the end of the year gets to 100.
Is that 100 in total (including Starship), or 100 Falcon launches?

Whether or not this predicted tally excludes any Starship launches, SpaceX is on track to get to or exceed 100 successful Falcon launches this year.

alugobi · « **Reply #527 on:** 09/25/2023 07:26 pm »

They have 96 days to launch 31 times.

ZachF · « **Reply #528 on:** 09/30/2023 02:56 pm »

10 launches for September and 70 for the year. If SX can replicate for the last 3 months they hit 100.

alugobi · « **Reply #529 on:** 09/30/2023 04:22 pm »

Scorecard through September. Includes SS #1.

xyv · « **Reply #530 on:** 09/30/2023 08:39 pm »

69 by my count and SpaceX's - at least from the last narrated lauches on YouTube - they wern't counting Starship either. You can definitely see that they have moved closer to the 100 line but still have a ways to go. Since I started tracking the end-of-year porjected total, the curve has started to climb again and the offset in the linear fit has started to get more negative - both indications of increased launch cadence.

Comga · « **Reply #531 on:** 10/01/2023 10:12 pm »

Happy Q4
Here is a single graph with four of the methods for estimating how many launches SpaceX will perform in 2023.
The math is explained above in this thread.
The various estimates stradle the 100 mark, rising with their complexity.
Discussions about whether the Rhinocerous has one horn or two can be taken up at your leisure.

TBH, it will be fine to be done with this year and this question.

Frakkel · « **Reply #532 on:** 10/02/2023 07:42 am »

Quote from: Comga on 10/01/2023 10:12 pm

Happy Q4
Here is a single graph with four of the methods for estimating how many launches SpaceX will perform in 2023.
The math is explained above in this thread.
The various estimates stradle the 100 mark, rising with their complexity.
Discussions about whether the Rhinocerous has one horn or two can be taken up at your leisure.
TBH, it will be fine to be done with this year and this question.

So all above 90, that’s impressive. I believe most people wouldn’t have believed that would have happened this year.
I think people including myself would have thought SpaceX would have done better with respect to Starship. But 90+ launches is a success.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #533 on:** 10/06/2023 05:27 am »

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1710138411195973810

Quote

@elonmusk's 100 launches plan as of Oct 5, 2023

steveleach · « **Reply #534 on:** 10/06/2023 07:05 am »

Quote

93 launches are expected in 2023

There were 69 Falcon launches in the first 9 months of 2023, so that means there would have to be just 8 launches a month for the rest of the year to only reach 93. As he's counting Starship in there, it's actually slightly two 8s and a 7.

That seems low to me.

catdlr · « **Reply #535 on:** 10/06/2023 07:18 am »

Quote from: steveleach on 10/06/2023 07:05 am

Quote
93 launches are expected in 2023
There were 69 Falcon launches in the first 9 months of 2023, so that means there would have to be just 8 launches a month for the rest of the year to only reach 93. As he's counting Starship in there, it's actually slightly two 8s and a 7.

That seems low to me.

Does a F9H count as three?

steveleach · « **Reply #536 on:** 10/06/2023 07:37 am »

Quote from: catdlr on 10/06/2023 07:18 am

Quote from: steveleach on 10/06/2023 07:05 am
Quote
93 launches are expected in 2023
There were 69 Falcon launches in the first 9 months of 2023, so that means there would have to be just 8 launches a month for the rest of the year to only reach 93. As he's counting Starship in there, it's actually slightly two 8s and a 7.

That seems low to me.
Does a F9H count as three?

If you're questioning my maths, the 71 in the diagram is the 69 Falcon launches from Jan-Sep that I mentioned, plus the one Falcon launch so far in October (counted in my 8/month), plus the one Starship launch.

catdlr · « **Reply #537 on:** 10/06/2023 08:01 am »

Quote from: steveleach on 10/06/2023 07:37 am

Quote from: catdlr on 10/06/2023 07:18 am
Quote from: steveleach on 10/06/2023 07:05 am
Quote
93 launches are expected in 2023
There were 69 Falcon launches in the first 9 months of 2023, so that means there would have to be just 8 launches a month for the rest of the year to only reach 93. As he's counting Starship in there, it's actually slightly two 8s and a 7.

That seems low to me.
Does a F9H count as three?
If you're questioning my maths, the 71 in the diagram is the 69 Falcon launches from Jan-Sep that I mentioned, plus the one Falcon launch so far in October (counted in my 8/month), plus the one Starship launch.

No, of course not. it was just a joke. I was thinking that three core F9H launch would count for three. Maybe my emoji was incorrect.

Hog · « **Reply #538 on:** 10/12/2023 10:03 pm »

Quote from: catdlr on 10/06/2023 08:01 am

Quote from: steveleach on 10/06/2023 07:37 am
Quote from: catdlr on 10/06/2023 07:18 am
Quote from: steveleach on 10/06/2023 07:05 am
Quote
93 launches are expected in 2023
There were 69 Falcon launches in the first 9 months of 2023, so that means there would have to be just 8 launches a month for the rest of the year to only reach 93. As he's counting Starship in there, it's actually slightly two 8s and a 7.

That seems low to me.
Does a F9H count as three?
If you're questioning my maths, the 71 in the diagram is the 69 Falcon launches from Jan-Sep that I mentioned, plus the one Falcon launch so far in October (counted in my 8/month), plus the one Starship launch.

No, of course not. it was just a joke. I was thinking that three core F9H launch would count for three. Maybe my emoji was incorrect.

I read it as a joke, but everyone's "funny bone" is different.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Space X's progress has been excellent, getting anywhere around 100 launches for '23 is phenomenal progress.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #539 on:** 10/12/2023 10:13 pm »

I ran my model yesterday and got an estimate of 97 launches this year. The delays this month are hurting the average. But partly that’s a temporary thing due to Psyche.