Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year (Read 202874 times)

ZachF · « **Reply #240 on:** 06/06/2023 01:20 pm »

An interesting factoid; the YTD total for DV adjusted tonnage to orbit for SpaceX is now larger than the cumulative total for Japan since their first launch… and the year is only 43% over.

SpaceX is on pace for an adjusted total of ~1,250t in 2023… for context the cumulative totals for Europe and China’s entire existence is 3,200t and 2,200t respectively, and before SX beat the record last year, the previous one-year record was 607t be the USSR in 1988.

xyv · « **Reply #241 on:** 06/07/2023 12:35 am »

Amazing but not surprising. "DV adjusted tonnage" is presumably delta-V adjusted. Curious - what is the adjustment that is made - linear correction of delta-V coorection back to a reference orbit in LEO or?

AmigaClone · « **Reply #242 on:** 06/07/2023 12:40 am »

Quote from: ZachF on 06/06/2023 01:20 pm

An interesting factoid; the YTD total for DV adjusted tonnage to orbit for SpaceX is now larger than the cumulative total for Japan since their first launch… and the year is only 43% over.

SpaceX is on pace for an adjusted total of ~1,250t in 2023… for context the cumulative totals for Europe and China’s entire existence is 3,200t and 2,200t respectively, and before SX beat the record last year, the previous one-year record was 607t be the USSR in 1988.

What was the comparable amount launched by the USA in 1969?

Robotbeat · « **Reply #243 on:** 06/07/2023 01:42 am »

My kingdom for a hyperlink to the source!

Robotbeat · « **Reply #244 on:** 06/07/2023 02:34 am »

Doesn’t show mass

catdlr · « **Reply #245 on:** 06/07/2023 02:49 am »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 06/07/2023 02:34 am

Doesn’t show mass

How about this one: What is the total mass sent into orbit overall history?

Hint: The creator of that chart used what appeared to be what I provided and added all the individual mass lifted into orbit for every launch for every year. A lot of work but probably done with a script. According to this, 83/84 would have been the all-time lifted successfully, and 1967/68 would have been if the launches back then were successful.

ZachF · « **Reply #246 on:** 06/07/2023 10:54 pm »

Quote from: xyv on 06/07/2023 12:35 am

Amazing but not surprising. "DV adjusted tonnage" is presumably delta-V adjusted. Curious - what is the adjustment that is made - linear correction of delta-V coorection back to a reference orbit in LEO or?

Rocket equation to the isp of a hypergolic orbit raise motor (3136m/s or 320), using dV from LEO. For instance, Falcon 9 launch of a 5500kg satellite to GTO-1800 would have an adjusted mass of 12,206 kg. It’s the “least unfair” adjustment method I can think of, as raw tonnage would undercount high energy payloads.

ZachF · « **Reply #247 on:** 06/07/2023 10:56 pm »

Quote from: AmigaClone on 06/07/2023 12:40 am

Quote from: ZachF on 06/06/2023 01:20 pm
An interesting factoid; the YTD total for DV adjusted tonnage to orbit for SpaceX is now larger than the cumulative total for Japan since their first launch… and the year is only 43% over.

SpaceX is on pace for an adjusted total of ~1,250t in 2023… for context the cumulative totals for Europe and China’s entire existence is 3,200t and 2,200t respectively, and before SX beat the record last year, the previous one-year record was 607t be the USSR in 1988.

What was the comparable amount launched by the USA in 1969?

453t

Ignore 2022 numbers.

Perchlorate · « **Reply #248 on:** 06/25/2023 12:07 pm »

Could have posted this in a number of places, but...

"SpaceX, it's time to update https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/. It shows '234 total launches, 192 total landings and 168 total reflights'."

Obviously not a high priority, and the fact that they don't update it after every launch shows how busy they are, pushing forward in many areas. But I thought they might have gotten it after "landings" passed the big 200 milestone.

spacenut · « **Reply #249 on:** 06/26/2023 02:31 pm »

So, how many launches for the first 6 months of this year? 45? This places SpaceX on par for 90 launches this year. Also, hurricane season is in now through oct-nov.

steveleach · « **Reply #250 on:** 06/26/2023 02:57 pm »

Quote from: spacenut on 06/26/2023 02:31 pm

So, how many launches for the first 6 months of this year? 45? This places SpaceX on par for 90 launches this year. Also, hurricane season is in now through oct-nov.

45 in 6 months only predicts 90 for 12 months if you assume a constant launch rate, and as others have pointed out many times in this thread, that isn't what we're seeing with F9.

Nomadd · « **Reply #251 on:** 06/26/2023 03:26 pm »

To be more accurate, use the first half of the year, not the first six months. Euclid will be in the first half if it gets off July 1st.

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #252 on:** 06/26/2023 03:37 pm »

Quote from: Nomadd on 06/26/2023 03:26 pm

To be more accurate, use the first half of the year, not the first six months. Euclid will be in the first half if it gets off July 1st.

That's some fine hair splitting, but it's accruate.

Somewhere between 90-100 flights seems where they will land.

Making it to 100 will be really tough unless there are a bunch of RTLS flights in the second half.

drnscr · « **Reply #253 on:** 06/26/2023 05:43 pm »

Quote from: steveleach on 06/26/2023 02:57 pm

Quote from: spacenut on 06/26/2023 02:31 pm
So, how many launches for the first 6 months of this year? 45? This places SpaceX on par for 90 launches this year. Also, hurricane season is in now through oct-nov.
45 in 6 months only predicts 90 for 12 months if you assume a constant launch rate, and as others have pointed out many times in this thread, that isn't what we're seeing with F9.

Jeez, “only” 90 launches over the course of 12 months… how horrible to miss 100 by 10 launches… how will SpaceX ever survive this hit to their credibility?

spacenut · « **Reply #254 on:** 06/26/2023 06:30 pm »

They need another boat...ah droneship, to increase the number of launches.

alugobi · « **Reply #255 on:** 06/26/2023 06:54 pm »

Quote from: drnscr on 06/26/2023 05:43 pm

Jeez, ... this hit to their credibility?

Said no one.

drnscr · « **Reply #256 on:** 06/27/2023 12:02 am »

Quote from: alugobi on 06/26/2023 06:54 pm

Quote from: drnscr on 06/26/2023 05:43 pm

Jeez, ... this hit to their credibility?
Said no one.

If you’re going to quote me, include the entire comment

alugobi · « **Reply #257 on:** 06/27/2023 12:12 am »

Quote from: drnscr on 06/26/2023 05:43 pm

Quote from: steveleach on 06/26/2023 02:57 pm
Quote from: spacenut on 06/26/2023 02:31 pm
So, how many launches for the first 6 months of this year? 45? This places SpaceX on par for 90 launches this year. Also, hurricane season is in now through oct-nov.
45 in 6 months only predicts 90 for 12 months if you assume a constant launch rate, and as others have pointed out many times in this thread, that isn't what we're seeing with F9.

Jeez, “only” 90 launches over the course of 12 months… how horrible to miss 100 by 10 launches… how will SpaceX ever survive this hit to their credibility?

Said no one.

jimvela · « **Reply #258 on:** 06/27/2023 12:40 am »

Quote from: drnscr on 06/27/2023 12:02 am

Quote from: alugobi on 06/26/2023 06:54 pm
Quote from: drnscr on 06/26/2023 05:43 pm

Jeez, ... this hit to their credibility?
Said no one.
If you’re going to quote me, include the entire comment

Sarcasm is just totally lost on some folks...

drnscr was pointing out (sarcastically) that it's no hit to credibility at all to only do 90 out of a target of 100...

alugobi · « **Reply #259 on:** 06/27/2023 12:55 am »

We're both pointing out the same thing: 90 launches is pretty damn good. Through all 11 pages of the thread, no one at all suggested slighting SX if they don't make 100. I said I was skeptical (and still am), and some tried to show how I wasn't getting it that they wouldn't, but neither I nor anyone else suggested a failure if they don't.

This whole kerfluffle is silly. No other firm can touch SX's launch capability. Who cares if they don't hit 100 this year; they will eventually.